Why do I picture George C Scott in Dr. Strangelove saying "We'll lose 10million,20 million tops Mr. President"?Sacrifices must be made.
There isn't a whole lot we are going to be able to do about it.If/when it happens,we deal with it.

A lot will depend on which side of the quarantine zone you end up on.

Quoted: You lack perspective.   Since there is neither talk of abandoning Posse Comitatus universally, nor is this a inevitable loss of freedom.  If you are alive rights can always be taken back, by force if need be, but death is perminent.

Might not be talking about a universal reversal of PC, but there is serious consideration of repealing much of PC. Perhaps too much. '

Like I said, I think most of this is an over-reaction to Katrina. The simple fact is neither FEMA nor CDC nor state officials can handle this. The NG and the military will have to be called out. The problem that needs to be addressed is the chain of command. Do we keep it at the state level? Do we transfer everthing to the feds? If so which agency? How do we subordinate the military to the civilian effort?

We have to be realistic, but we don't have to abandon the basic principles on which this nation was founded in order to address the problem.

Quoted: Quoted: [ Alternatives... WTF? This nation had flu outbreaks before. This nation even had a lethal flu outbreak… The quarantines were enforced by state governments. Why is now any different than then?   The democratization of travel.  During the last flu pandemic could the average working class citizen travel across several state lines in a matter of hours?  in a privately owned vehicle? traverse the country in under a day on an airplane? Increased mobility of goods.  You couldn't get all kinds of fruits and vegetables year round. The world is a lot different now than during the last flu pandemic.  Surely you realize that much.

Yeah, but that is a two way street.

In 1918, the greatest number of deaths were amognst soldiers and defense plant workers.  Crowded camps, crowded factories, crowded public transit, crowded teniment housing allowed the spread.

While its easier to jump continents and cities today, once the flue gets off the plane, things get a lot harder for it today.  Because so many of us drive our own cars and live in single family dwellings.  But its not impossible.  There are ways and much hinges on how long a person remains asymptomatic but yet contagious.  SARS for example failed to spread because people got sick too fast, alerting authorities who could then round up everyone on the plane with them before they could scatter very far or come into contact with very many other people.

Quoted: Quoted: You lack perspective.   Since there is neither talk of abandoning Posse Comitatus universally, nor is this a inevitable loss of freedom.  If you are alive rights can always be taken back, by force if need be, but death is perminent. Might not be talking about a universal reversal of PC, but there is serious consideration of repealing much of PC. Perhaps too much. ' Like I said, I think most of this is an over-reaction to Katrina. The simple fact is neither FEMA nor CDC nor state officials can handle this. The NG and the military will have to be called out. The problem that needs to be addressed is the chain of command. Do we keep it at the state level? Do we transfer everthing to the feds? If so which agency? How do we subordinate the military to the civilian effort? We have to be realistic, but we don't have to abandon the basic principles on which this nation was founded in order to address the problem.

Bingo... that is the answer.

Be prepared and do the planning now on how when and what.

If you don’t do that now you will guarantee that if this type event happens you WILL lose civil liberties permanently.

You have 2 choice plan now or bury your head ignore the possibility and suffer the consequences.

What would happen if they did enact a quarantine? That could be a disaster in and of itself.

An influenza pandemic would require almost complete quarantine of everyone to contain. You couldn't let people go to school, you couldn't let people go to work, you couldn't let people go to the grocery store, and you could not let anyone use any public transportation whatsoever. I'm talking about buses, subways, nothing.  

Example:

A woman with a family lives in an apartment building in a major metropolitan area.  Everyone in the building is initially healthy. The family is out of groceries and she needs to go to the store for food. At the grocery store she encounters the cashier who has encountered 100 people that day, one of whom had the flu. While standing face to face at a distance of 2-3 feet from the cashier (who is handling all of the food that this woman bought) for 3 minutes, the woman contracts the flu. She comes home with the groceries and infects her family. They stay couped up in the apartment for 3 days, breathing each other's flu virus. The virus spreads through the air ducts into another apartment and another, and another. Eventually everyone in the apartment is exosed to the virus. Quarantine failed simply because the family needed groceries.

How long would the quarantine last? How would people earn money? How would people get food? What would happen when people were unable to pay their utilities or their? What about people who live in apartment buildings, how do you prevent contamination from one apartment to the next even if there is no face to face contact? What would happen to the economy if there were a long term quarantine (say a month)? What would happen if people weren't allowed to earn or spend any money for an entire month (and a month is a very conservative amount of time)? What would happen if factories were closed for an extended period of time? Or if truckers were unable to make any deliveries for an extended period of time? Or if banks were closed for an extended period of time? All of those are crucial jobs with high risk of exposure due to the amount of people that they contact. Truckers alone could contaminate the entire country in a couple of days. One sick guy in a crowded truck stop diner could turn into 50 contaminated people heading in 50 different directions.

And keep in mind that this would have to be a nationwide quarantine at the first sign of an outbreak. One infected business man could spread the virus across country in less than a week. For example, in my previous job I had one instance where I went from Detriot, MI to Columbus, OH then to Indianapolis, IN then to Louisville, KY then to Dayton, OH then to Pittsburg, PA and then back to Detriot in 9 days.

Lastly, how long do you think that the military would be able to hold out when people who have been couped up together for an extended period of time start running low on food, running low on patience and have nothing to do but listen to the 24 hour news media give reports of armagedon all day long finally decide that enough is enough? The population of NYC alone has the entire armed forces outnumbered 2 to 1!

The only viable solution would be to let it run it's course.

Quoted: What would happen if they did enact a quarantine? That could be a disaster in and of itself. An influenza pandemic would require almost complete quarantine of everyone to contain. You couldn't let people go to school, you couldn't let people go to work, you couldn't let people go to the grocery store, and you could not let anyone use any public transportation whatsoever. I'm talking about buses, subways, nothing.   Example: A woman with a family lives in an apartment building in a major metropolitan area.  Everyone in the building is initially healthy. The family is out of groceries and she needs to go to the store for food. At the grocery store she encounters the cashier who has encountered 100 people that day, one of whom had the flu. While standing face to face at a distance of 2-3 feet from the cashier (who is handling all of the food that this woman bought) for 3 minutes, the woman contracts the flu. She comes home with the groceries and infects her family. They stay couped up in the apartment for 3 days, breathing each other's flu virus. The virus spreads through the air ducts into another apartment and another, and another. Eventually everyone in the apartment is exosed to the virus. Quarantine failed simply because the family needed groceries. How long would the quarantine last? How would people earn money? How would people get food? What would happen when people were unable to pay their utilities or their? What about people who live in apartment buildings, how do you prevent contamination from one apartment to the next even if there is no face to face contact? What would happen to the economy if there were a long term quarantine (say a month)? What would happen if people weren't allowed to earn or spend any money for an entire month (and a month is a very conservative amount of time)? What would happen if factories were closed for an extended period of time? Or if truckers were unable to make any deliveries for an extended period of time? Or if banks were closed for an extended period of time? All of those are crucial jobs with high risk of exposure due to the amount of people that they contact. Truckers alone could contaminate the entire country in a couple of days. One sick guy in a crowded truck stop diner could turn into 50 contaminated people heading in 50 different directions. And keep in mind that this would have to be a nationwide quarantine at the first sign of an outbreak. One infected business man could spread the virus across country in less than a week. For example, in my previous job I had one instance where I went from Detriot, MI to Columbus, OH then to Indianapolis, IN then to Louisville, KY then to Dayton, OH then to Pittsburg, PA and then back to Detriot in 9 days. Lastly, how long do you think that the military would be able to hold out when people who have been couped up together for an extended period of time start running low on food, running low on patience and have nothing to do but listen to the 24 hour news media give reports of armagedon all day long finally decide that enough is enough? The population of NYC alone has the entire armed forces outnumbered 2 to 1! The only viable solution would be to let it run it's course.

No, the only viable choice would be to have the Army kill everyone who would try to leave.

NYC has no guns.

And you would only have to worry about those not already dead or too sick to move.

The people INSIDE would not have to see televsion, their family memebers would be sick or dying all around them.

No it would not have to be a nation wide quarentine.  Beyond the hot zone measures similar to those employed in 1918 would probably be enough.  And no ONE travelling businessman is never enough to cause it to spread.  He and those he associated with could be tracked down.  

Though what even the Army would do if multiple cities were struck simultainously...airline traffic to Asia goes to so many cities these days.

Consider how SARS spread.  One person got on an airplane.  Airplanes have connecting flights.  Airports have tons of people.  All the exposed scatter quickly.

Quarantine?  Good luck on that one.

Quoted: You lack perspective.

You lack reading comprehension.

Since there is neither talk of abandoning Posse Comitatus universally, nor is this a inevitable loss of freedom.  If you are alive rights can always be taken back, by force if need be, but death is perminent.

You're goddamned right!  Just like the tax rebellion of 2000...uh...2000...wait, that didn't happen.

You're goddamned right!  Just like the NFA rebellion of 1968....1970...wait, that didn't happen either.

You're goddamned right!  Just like the Assault Weapons Ban Rebellion of 1980...uh...1980...wait, that didn't happen either.

You're goddamned right!  Just like the...wait...we haven't had a real rebellion since the Civil War.  What are YOU talkin about?

Disasters are always hypothetical untill they hit.  Louisianians thought that a Cat 4 hurricane was just hypothetical, the Federal goverment it seems didn't think enough suicidal people could be found to crash multiple airliners into buildings for it to have even honored the idea as a "hypothetical".   There is no scientific evidence to say something as leathal as the Black Death cannot happen again.

Alright, fine.

9/11 was an abberation.  Nobody expected it because nobody thought it up.  It was a terrible act of war, and terribly original. They were more creative than we were.

Katrina was an abberation as well.  Every level of regional government dropped the ball.  Then it became politicized so the regional gov't could focus the blame on someone other than themselves.  When everything was done, the only people capable of saving the lives of the survivors that were left was the Military.

If you actually think that someone can pull off a fake flu and use this modification of Posse Cometatus for the purpose of declaring martial law- and then do exactly what once they have done it- and then somehow keep it perminant when no dead bodies can be found?  You need to check into a hospital.

Did I mention you lack reading comprehension?

Please quote me where I stated this, and I'll ... well, no, I won't shut up.

Quoted: And no ONE travelling businessman is never enough to cause it to spread.  He and those he associated with could be tracked down.

Oh yeah?

The virus mutates into a strain that can be transmitted from person to person, and some guy is exposed to it. The next day he goes to the airport for a business trip. Knowing that since 9/11 he must show up to the airport at least 2 hours before his flight, he checks his bag (exposing the ticket agent who will also contact hundreds of people that day alone, all of them heading in different directions), goes through security (again exposing more people who will have contact with hundreds of people that day alone), and goes to the airport bar for a drink before his flight. He talks to the bartender (another person that will contact dozens of people that day) and 2 other people who are flying out. 1 infected person in an airport for 45 minutes could potentially expose 1,000's of people to the virus. All of whom would be going off in different directions across the country and around the world. And every exposed person would be spending several hours with dozens of other people in an airtight tin can. The infected person would be exhaling the virus and everyone else would be inhaling it.

The reason that the avian flu pandemic hasn't already spread is because it is currently not transmittable from person to person. Up until now, only chicken farmers have gotten it. Once it mutates, it could literally spread around the world in a matter of days.

In fact, considering how contagious the flu is it could conceivably be spread at least across country, possibly worldwide before the initial infected person began feeling sick.

One more thing...

You wouldn't even have to go to Asia to introduce the virus to the US. There have been 2 know cases of humans contracting the virus from chicken in this country.

Quoted: I’m sure you could hypothesize a coming pandemic that would make the world quake. How does your imagination concern my freedom? Short answer: It does not. Nor will it ever.

I am not hypothesizing anything.  You asked what was different now than during the last flu pandemic.  I answered.  The avenues for rapid expanision of infected areas are far more numerous than they were in 1918.  

I did not argue for a repeal of the PCA; I simply answered the question that you raised.  If you don't agree with my answer that's OK too.

Quoted: NYC has no guns.

That is pretty damn funny right there.  Guess I don't have to worry about being shot in NYC.

Quoted: His administration totally drops the ball, then blames it on structural problems in the government. "We didn't screw up, only the military could have handled it well." Don't bring in the military, put some professionals in charge of FEMA. Its a much simpler solution. EDIT: Putting on my nomex suit because some ideologues in this forum don't believe Bush has ever or could ever make a mistake. Oh, and it doesn't really matter if anyone else would have done worse ... anyone else isn't the president.

Oh, here we go with the NOLA stuff.  The only ones that dropped the ball were Nagin and that fucking Dem governor.

It's got nothing to do with him never making a mistake, it's got to do with "it's all Bush's fault", no matter what.

Quoted: Jorge W. Boosh has to be among the worst 'leaders' we've ever had. I about shit when I heard him say we need the miltary to handle disasters. Who is running in '08??? Chaney isn't a vianle candidate..... so who will be propped up and trotted before the ignorant masses???

What absolutely ignorant bullshit.

Quoted: Quoted: Jorge W. Boosh has to be among the worst 'leaders' we've ever had. I about shit when I heard him say we need the miltary to handle disasters. Who is running in '08??? Chaney isn't a vianle candidate..... so who will be propped up and trotted before the ignorant masses??? What absolutely ignorant bullshit.

Thanx for sharing Larry.


Did you have any more biting insights to reveal???

Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: Jorge W. Boosh has to be among the worst 'leaders' we've ever had. I about shit when I heard him say we need the miltary to handle disasters. Who is running in '08??? Chaney isn't a vianle candidate..... so who will be propped up and trotted before the ignorant masses??? What absolutely ignorant bullshit. Thanx for sharing Larry. Did you have any more biting insights to reveal???

About as biting as your deliberate mispellings.  About as biting as your ravings that are non-fact based.  

How about if you reveal just ONE insight that has any substance to it.

Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: Jorge W. Boosh has to be among the worst 'leaders' we've ever had. I about shit when I heard him say we need the miltary to handle disasters. Who is running in '08??? Chaney isn't a vianle candidate..... so who will be propped up and trotted before the ignorant masses??? What absolutely ignorant bullshit. Thanx for sharing Larry. Did you have any more biting insights to reveal??? About as biting as your deliberate mispellings.  About as biting as your ravings that are non-fact based.   How about if you reveal just ONE insight that has any substance to it.

Well, I don't think that Bush was the worst leader ever but he certainly has been using catastrophies to make radical infringements of our civil liberties. The police state is in place, and if Congress goes alng with this idea he'll have the military muscle to enforce whatever the hell he wants to.

After the Reichstag fire people were all for The Reichstag Fire Decree. The rest is history. Have we forgotten?

Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: Jorge W. Boosh has to be among the worst 'leaders' we've ever had. I about shit when I heard him say we need the miltary to handle disasters. Who is running in '08??? Chaney isn't a vianle candidate..... so who will be propped up and trotted before the ignorant masses??? What absolutely ignorant bullshit. Thanx for sharing Larry. Did you have any more biting insights to reveal??? About as biting as your deliberate mispellings.  About as biting as your ravings that are non-fact based.   How about if you reveal just ONE insight that has any substance to it. Well, I don't think that Bush was the worst leader ever but he certainly has been using catastrophies to make radical infringements of our civil liberties. The police state is in place, and if Congress goes alng with this idea he'll have the military muscle to enforce whatever the hell he wants to. After the Reichstag fire people were all for The Reichstag Fire Decree. The rest is history. Have we forgotten?

Yes.

Our nation and it's sytem of government is apparently too weak to survive a fucking flu outbreak according to a growing number of people.  

Quoted: The difference is what percentage of those infected will die. In 1918 it was 2.2% in the US.  At that death rate, a loose largely voluntary quarantene and shutting down public transit, theaters, sporting events, schools, ect. reduced the infection rate, and therefore the number of deaths enough that people beleved that what they were doing was working and so they continued to STAY home and kept up sanatation measures untill the weather changed and conditions got too dry for flu transmission. Those same measures would still reduce deaths regardless of the death rate.  But if the death rate got substatially higher, psychologically people would break.  They would panic.  Then a ENFORCED quarantine would be needed. If Avian flu is just a rerun of 1918 the measures Bush wants would not be needed,

There are two things working against us this time:

1. There is now a large population of 'immuno-compromised'(aka HIV+) that are very susceptible to viral infections. In its current form, it is 40% fatal. However, virii tend to drop their lethality as their ease of transmission increases. OK, so it is now only 33% fatal in healthy adults. Looks like I'll be in for a lot of OT at the hospital during this one. Provided I survive it.

2. Since everyone now has 'rights' and 'entitlements' and this H1N5 virus has to be Bush's fault(or even evil sinister plan) none of the DUhmers are going to comply with such a lock down. They'll want to march in the streets for their rights.

I've got the same sinking feeling that I had when Katrina started its turn north and I knew the state of the levees in NOLA. Sorry, I cannot think of a way that this one won't end badly.

wganz
¶

Quoted: 1. There is now a large population of 'immuno-compromised'(aka HIV+) that are very susceptible to viral infections. In its current form, it is 40% fatal. However, virii tend to drop their lethality as their ease of transmission increases. OK, so it is now only 33% fatal in healthy adults. Looks like I'll be in for a lot of OT at the hospital during this one. Provided I survive it.

Isn't the health status of the people who are being infected also a consideration though? How healthy do you think that the immune system of a Vietnamese chicken farmer really is? These are people who are probably borderline malnurished with half a dozen vitiman deficiencies to begin with. By the time they get sick and ge to a hospital they are probably just waiting to die, bird flu or no. That is my uneducatued opion.

You have to figure that there were a bunch of unreported infectinons in Vietnam as well, and at least some of them probably survived.

In the US I'd expect it to take a very heav toll on the elderly and the very young (who are cesspits of viri anyway).  If it goes worldwide things would probably be bad in the shanty towns with sketchy sanitation and sketchier health care.

"The Stand" has a nice summation of the spread of disease in the first few pages.

Is this at all possible?   I mean if GWB was to use the Military to do this, then essentially this would be Martial Law throughout the CONUS.  No one in and no one out, within the infected areas.
Well wouldn't that mean that all of our Constitutional rights would be suspended?  Then they would want our guns like they did in New Orleans.  I ask again, is this option really fucking possible?


The other thing I thought of is that our health care system is in no way prepared for a mass pandemic, let alone an NBC attack.  The hospital would be the last place I would want to be.

Before everyone goes running into the streets screaming in abject fear, might I remind you all that the death rate of 40% is by those that come down with the flu;ie show symptoms of infection.
There are many who have been exposed, in fact most, who have shown no symptoms whatsoever. This bug will not be the end of the world.
I also am EXTREMLY bothered by Bush's proposal, but we must keep it in perspective-he is merely suggesting that a dialog be opened as to whether or not it is worthwhile, not issuing an EO.

Nick

Quoted: His administration totally drops the ball, then blames it on structural problems in the government. "We didn't screw up, only the military could have handled it well." Don't bring in the military, put some professionals in charge of FEMA. Its a much simpler solution. EDIT: Putting on my nomex suit because some ideologues in this forum don't believe Bush has ever or could ever make a mistake. Oh, and it doesn't really matter if anyone else would have done worse ... anyone else isn't the president.

This is BS.  In the case of the hurricane the admin did not drop the ball. The LA state and local gov't did.  Do you really think kerry or gore could/would have done better? get serious.

Quoted: Why do I picture George C Scott in Dr. Strangelove saying "We'll lose 10million,20 million tops Mr. President"?Sacrifices must be made. There isn't a whole lot we are going to be able to do about it.If/when it happens,we deal with it. A lot will depend on which side of the quarantine zone you end up on.

I'm picturing more like Stephen King's- The Stand.

It just gets to me that our government has no qualms about pointing guns at its own citizens, but will refuse to protect the border.  Who knows what diseases are coming in with "undocumented workers"?  

A legal alien coming into the US obviously ill would be taken aside, evaluated.  Illegals just disappear, and the govt takes a hands off approach to them.

Bump

Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: Jorge W. Boosh has to be among the worst 'leaders' we've ever had. I about shit when I heard him say we need the miltary to handle disasters. Who is running in '08??? Chaney isn't a vianle candidate..... so who will be propped up and trotted before the ignorant masses??? What absolutely ignorant bullshit. Thanx for sharing Larry. Did you have any more biting insights to reveal??? About as biting as your deliberate mispellings.  About as biting as your ravings that are non-fact based.   How about if you reveal just ONE insight that has any substance to it.

BTW... it's "misspellings"

Boosh's Track record to date:

Iraq- major cluster fuck due to poor planning/staffing/implementation

Terrorism: Won't stand up to the Saudis OR the big oil companies.

Mexican border: He's practiaclly handing out welcome packets and maps to people INVADING our country.


Other then that... he seems to be doing pretty well.

Quoted: It just gets to me that our government has no qualms about pointing guns at its own citizens, but will refuse to protect the border.  Who knows what diseases are coming in with "undocumented workers"?   ....

Thay bring in ALL kinds of shit we eliminated 50 years ago......


POLIO

Tuberculosis

Tropical fevers that most of us don't remember... unless you served in the phillipines or something.


ETA:

woohoo!!!

Leprosy!!! Get your leprosy here!!!!


""Americans should be told that diseases long eradicated in this country -- tuberculosis, leprosy, polio, for example -- and other extremely contagious diseases have been linked directly to illegals," said Scottsdale Congressman J.D. Hayworth. "For example, in 40 years, only 900 persons were afflicted by leprosy in the U.S.; in the past three years, more than 7,000 cases have been presented."

There also are worries that illegal immigrants from Asia, particularly China, are bringing rare and infectious disease into the Western U.S."

Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: Jorge W. Boosh has to be among the worst 'leaders' we've ever had. I about shit when I heard him say we need the miltary to handle disasters. Who is running in '08??? Chaney isn't a vianle candidate..... so who will be propped up and trotted before the ignorant masses??? What absolutely ignorant bullshit. Thanx for sharing Larry. Did you have any more biting insights to reveal??? About as biting as your deliberate mispellings.  About as biting as your ravings that are non-fact based.   How about if you reveal just ONE insight that has any substance to it. BTW... it's "misspellings" Boosh's Track record to date: Iraq- major cluster fuck due to poor planning/staffing/implementation Says who.........you??  Are you some kind of military expert?  I doubt it.  More likely a "quick fix" type who has no clue about what he speaks.  I know guys who are there and guys who have been there.  They don't see it as a cluster-fuck at all.  God, you sound like the Dems. Terrorism: Won't stand up to the Saudis OR the big oil companies. Again, says who....you??  Once again, no knowledge of the subject, just making shit up. Sounds more and more like the Dems. Mexican border: He's practiaclly handing out welcome packets and maps to people INVADING our country. I don't agree with him about the border but the "handing out welcome packets" is ridiculous. Other then that... he seems to be doing pretty well.

I can read the ultra-liberal Atlanta Journal Constitution and hear exactly the same bullshit from leftwing nutcase liberal columnists like Molly Ivins.  It has been said that it's hard to tell the far right from the far left because they sound so much alike and it is true.  I can go to DU and read exactly the type of comments that you are making.

Your infantile "boosh" bullshit sounds exactly like what I would read at DU.

You can whine about me saying that, but all anyone has to do is go over there and compare your comments to theirs.