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When is this due to arrive in N.O., and what is the probability of this storm sustaining this level of intensity?
Inquiring minds want to know. |
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Monday late afternoon/early evening, is now a Cat 5 will drop to a strong Cat 4 at landfall, storm surge between 10 and 25 feet, possiblity of 18" of rain in a 24 hour period. |
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They estimate that it will make landfall mid day tomorrow The experts are very concerned (read Scared Shitless) that Katrina could be what is called an "Annular" storm. A normal hurricane has periods of weakness when the eye wall effectively collapses and then has to reconstitute itself. This could cause the storm to fluctuate between cat 3 and 5 with the chance that the storm will make landfall at a low point. [Annular] hurricanes do not fluctuate as rapidly [as normal major hurricanes]. The most recent case was Ivan, which retained category five status for 30 consecutive hours. The tell-tale sign of an annular hurricane is that the convection is uniform, making a perfect circle, i.e. there are no spiraling bands, just a donut. That is almost exactly the case with Katrina, as one can see from infrared satellite. Another feature is a larger than average eye (average being 14 miles). The message from the recon plane shown in the last full NOAA update shows that Katrina's eye is 25 nautical miles in diameter, so it is well above average. As far as conditions associated with annular hurricanes go, some of the conditions are most certainly there. Average Sea Surface Temperatures associated with them are 26.9° C. Katrina is certainly on the more favorable side of that (ref). Weak vertical wind shear is another key factor. That is certainly the case in the immediate vicinity of Katrina. ... So enough of the theory, what does this mean practically? It means that the situation has gotten even worse. If Katrina is indeed annular, then the chances of her retreating down to say category three status are nil. If we make the somewhat unlikely presumption that she has reached her maximum strength (and again if she is annular), then the averages of such hurricanes suggest that she would only weaken to 145 mph at landfall. That would be a storm with Charley-like intensity, but on a much larger scale as Charley was puny compared to the present size of Katrina. Simply put, I fear that "Nawlins is not going to exist by tomorrow afternoon. |
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If it truly surges 20 feet at the port, this is finally the one we've been worried about.
I've partied on Bourbon with water (and a little sewage) thigh deep. I'd get the hell out for this one. You folks come have your Hurricane Party in Houston this time. Bonne chance. |
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im LEO so im staying give youan update with some dig pics when my power comes back up
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I've always wondered, if New Orleans is below sea level what keeps from filling up?
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Pumps and dikes. |
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A really big but antiquated system of electric pumps running 24/7 |
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HoustonChronicle.com - Big Easy gets busy as Katrina takes aim for Gulf coast
HoustonChronicle.com -- http://www.HoustonChronicle.com | Section: Top Story Aug. 28, 2005, 2:01AM Big Easy gets busy as Katrina takes aim for Gulf coast Louisiana and Mississippi residents urged to evacuate early By KEVIN MORAN Copyright 2005 Houston Chronicle NEW ORLEANS - With a killer storm bearing down on them, hundreds of thousands of people Saturday closed up their homes, gassed up their cars and fled low-lying areas of southern Louisiana expected to be flooded by a potentially deadly storm surge when Hurricane Katrina roars ashore Monday. Evacuees were spurred by strident pleas from public officials to get out early. "This is not a drill," New Orleans Mayor Ray Nagin told residents during a news conference televised live in the region. "We want you to take this very seriously. This is a major, major hurricane." Katrina gained strength overnight, to become a Category 4 monster with 145 mph sustained winds as it moved over the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico early Sunday. A hurricane watch extended from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle, but forecasters predicted landfall in the New Orleans area. Nagin ordered a voluntary evacuation of the city at 5 p.m. Saturday. Some residents decided to go, some to stay, and some still were undecided late Saturday. Making matters worse, at least 100,000 people in the city lack the transportation to get out of town. Nagin said the Superdome might be used as a shelter of last resort for people who have no cars, with city bus pick-up points around New Orleans. ``I know they're saying `Get out of town,' but I don't have any way to get out,'' said Hattie Johns, 74. ``If you don't have no money, you can't go.'' "I want to have fun and watch God's fury," said Gaetano Zarzana, a street performer and musician who said he planned to stay in town. "I'm going to hang out in Johnny White's bar on Bourbon Street and watch the flood come up." Luis Molina, a hotel employee who lives across the Mississippi in Marrero, La., said he planned to take his wife and two sons, 7 and 12, to stay in Houston near the Galleria. "I don't like to take chances," said Molina, who has evacuated at least four times since he moved to New Orleans in 1981. Kimberly Rosenberg was cleaning out the storm drain outside her home on Bourbon Street on Saturday evening. She said three neighbors were leaving town. Her husband, Harry, said the couple usually stays in town during storm threats. "But this might be the one that constrains us to leave the city for safer ground," he said. "At the moment, I think we're inclined to try and weather the storm." Hoping to move more people to safety as quickly as possible, officials imposed a controversial evacuation-traffic plan at 4 p.m Saturday, turning inbound lanes of highways into the New Orleans metropolitan area into outbound lanes and nearly doubling the flow of traffic away from Katrina's path. Called "contraflow," the traffic plan caused huge bottlenecks and long delays in some spots when Louisiana officials tried it when Hurricane Ivan threatened the area in 2004. But Gov. Kathleen Blanco said the system has been refined, and she expected that people would not have to spend hours trying to go just 100 miles or so. "Now we've got a very clear plan of departure, and we believe we're going to avoid bottlenecks," Blanco said. Shortly after 4 p.m. Saturday, the only traffic on a section of Interstate 10 in New Orleans was westbound on both sides of the highway. Traffic seemed to be flowing well as more people began making their way out of southeast Louisiana. "We have a million and a half people just in the New Orleans metro area, and we have several hundred thousand more in the outlying areas," Blanco said. "We hope to have a million and a half to 2 million people moving out of this region." By 2 a.m. EDT Sunday, the eye of the hurricane was about 310 miles south-southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River. It was moving west-northwest at about 8 mph and was expected to turn more to the northwest during the day, the National Hurricane Center said. ``We know that we're going to take the brunt of it,'' Blanco said. ``It does not bode well for southeastern Louisiana.'' Blanco said she expects Katrina's damage to be "rampant" in Louisiana. "We've seen it many, many times over the years in many regions of the state," Blanco said. "We always worry the most about the New Orleans area because we have so many people living here." But Blanco said too many people in southeast Louisiana have seen many hurricanes miss the New Orleans area in recent years, and officials were worried that residents have become complacent about storm threats. "And those people are the ones we worry about," Blanco said. "We don't want any complacency." Roy Williams, director of the Louis Armstrong International Airport, said operations were normal Saturday, but he expects airlines to cancel some flights today. The airport will shut down when winds reach 50 mph and traffic controllers cease operations, Williams said. Louisiana officials got an early start on evacuations from the low-lying parishes south and west of New Orleans. As Katrina sprawled over an ever-growing area of the Gulf on Saturday, officials in Plaquemines, St. Bernard and other parishes began at 9 a.m. to urge people to evacuate their homes. Under the state's plan, New Orleans and Orleans Parish don't call for evacuations until after the low-lying areas, to allow people who live south and east of the city to get on the road first and head for safety. Nagin said the city is preparing to mobilize Regional Transit Authority buses to pick up people who are unable to evacuate and take them to the Superdome for shelter. If the storm takes dead aim on the city, tens of thousands of people might ride it out in the stadium, Nagin said. The mayor urged residents to check on neighbors and make sure that people have somewhere to go. "This is a very serious storm, and it's going to take all New Orleanians rallying around each other and help our neighbors to make sure everyone is safe," Nagin said. City officials were preparing to close floodgates in the levees that surround New Orleans, which is below sea level and relies on pumps to prevent flooding. As city officials started the evacuation, officials at power company Entergy were mobilizing crews from Oklahoma, Arkansas and Texas to be prepared to restore electricity to southeast Louisiana if the storm knocks out power lines. Entergy President Dan Packer said about 4,000 linemen will be ready to move into stricken areas after the storm passes. Packer said another 3,000 workers were being mobilized to help clear downed trees and tree limbs if needed after the hurricane moves through. Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour declared a state of emergency, and the director of his Emergency Management Agency, Robert Latham, urged coastal residents not to wait for evacuation orders. "I realize that we have done this drill two or three times in the past few months, but we cannot take this storm lightly," Latham said. A Holiday Inn Express in Jackson, Miss., was booked up, said manager Jeff Rogers. "Most of the people that we have are coming from Florida, the Alabama Gulf Coast, Mississippi Gulf Coast and southern Louisiana," Rogers said. The director of the Federal Emergency Management Agency urged people to heed evacuation orders. "I'm very concerned about people in Mississippi and Louisiana who have watched these storms the past two years hit Florida and Alabama and may have a little lackadaisical attitude toward this thing," FEMA Director Michael Brown told AP Radio. Chronicle wire services and the Associated Press contributed to this report. [email protected] HoustonChronicle.com -- http://www.HoustonChronicle.com | Section: Top Story This article is: http://www.chron.com/cs/CDA/ssistory.mpl/topstory/3328140 |
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I normally live in New Orleans, right now I am living in a hotel room in Houston... I fear I may not have a house when I return...
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Holy crap . . . and people actually want to LIVE there? I'd rather live next to the San Andreas fault! |
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And water thigh high on Bourbon repsresents what level of flooding compared to what may be expected? Such that thigh high is 6 feet, and there lookin at 20 or something. Give us an idea what thigh high level water equates to. |
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Holy crap. So do you have a nice tall building to camp out in? |
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This shits going to get scary. I'm gald I live in NM, nothing happens here. Good luck to those who are going to ride this out. I think your going to need your gear.
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This is a no-shit, bad, bad situation for those in the path of this storm. Katrina is NOT one to try and ride out! In the event of a direct hit, NO will not only catch pure Hell, it will most likely be isolated for a good while after this is finally over, so if you get out, better plan on staying out for at least a week...maybe several weeks.
Having been through a couple of Cat 3's, with trees and power lines snapping like twigs, and small tornadoes going overhead sounding like freight trains, I can only pray for those who have property in the path of this storm, and especially for any who are unable to get out. God Bless |
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My mom's cousin owns a fishing business down there:
not exactly a good location, 30 miles south of new orleans: www.neworleansfishing.com I'm guessing his buildings are fucked. |
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You don't seem to have had too much experience with da mayor(s) and parish leadership. They had much better things to do. |
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Watch the This Old House espisode that shows the whole system at work, including the sewage treatment plant.
After New Orleans goes under water It will be replayed.. |
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I have a sister living in LaCombe just off the lake. It looks like they will be able to look up into the eye as it passes over. I havn't heard from them in a week, since they left here to go home. They have a son that lives just off base in Pensacola(?). I can only hope they are smart enough to head that way.(They are in their mid 70's)
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9:25AM CDT Mandatory Evacuation declaration by N.O. Mayor.
Get out! |
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Damn, Sutton got me by 10 seconds. |
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I've never even been there. Was thinking of going down next year for Mardi Graas but....... |
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Having ridden out some pretty bad storms and canes when I lived in south Texas and even one or two in NO/EBR, I'd have to say GTFORN to all the mudbugs. If this is as bad as they say its going to be, it might just make the Galveston storm look a bit smaller. I certainly wouldn't want to be anywhere near NO in a Cat 5.
Thoughts and prayers guys, and I might just have to light a candle tomorrow morning at chapel. |
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I was born there and have family that lives there (glad I sold my condo in March, sorry.) At any rate, my GF's (she is from LA too, but North) father said that the city is fucked* if it gets a direct hit.
They are jacking the public off by saying that the pumps can take care of it. I saw one report where some NO Parish rep said that the pumps could take one levy breaking. *I have never, ever, heard the guy utter one single curse word in the years that I have known him. It's too bad, I really love New Orleans... This is the one time I'll say that I would rather get hit than them. Most of my family, idiots, are staying. |
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NO is a great city to visit, and in some cases live in. But the mayor, city managers, city governemnt, and parish government are whacked. Think Detroit and Cleveland levels of incompetence and corruption. Moreal was a big bud of the Clinton regime, if that's a hint. |
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This monday noon landfall that people are talking about is for the eye of the hurricane. The wind and water are already starting to impact the barrier islands and even the Gulf Shores area. By the time that the eye hits, many people will be dead and damage will be peaking.
All those big beautiful pine trees in Slidell. Lacombe and Mandeville will have to be hauled to Bougaloosa for pulp wood. |
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I've been in NO for a big blow, and I remember the streets flooding pretty good and opening the Superdome up as a shelter, and that was with no levy breaking. If the levies start to go, or if Lake P starts getting pushed into the city, I have no faith in those pumps. |
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Thats nothing.... He said that your vehicles can be confiscated for use in eveacuating people without your permission. Before or after the storm. Also.. They can take your property and place peopl in it before or after the storm for what ever use they want. Its a property, and land grab. Those people evacuated will come home to find a bunch of politician or welfare cases in their home.. |
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I feel bad for you people in it's path, it was a Category I when it hit us down in Ft. Lauderdale, it is fucked everything up worse than the previous cat 3s and 4s have in my area. God speed.
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I'm thinking about all the "undocumented" cajuns that live back in the Atchaflya areas and the western marshes out of NO that don't show up much on official stuff and live on boats and platforms. They could get hit real hard. |
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Hurricane Camille...August 17, 1969...same general area at landfall...
www.geocities.com/hurricanene/hurricanecamille.htm |
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I guess I'm heading down to the N.O. area in the morning to operate radio for Army MARS, FEMA, and the Guard. This is looking really dismal.
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Anybody heard from Lordtrader? Last I heard he was living in N.O.
The Atchafalaya Basin looks like it will be ok. The people living on houseboats and platform houses along the west shore of Ponchartrain near LaPlace are in a world of shit. Le grand ouragon will be on everybodys mind these next few days. I'll bet you can buy seafood real cheap about right now! |
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Yeah, but there's a whooooole lot more people and structures there now. |
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This has definitely become a worst case scenario. God Bless them. Bigfeet |
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How can such a thing happen in the United States of America? |
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REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 175 MPH 000 WTNT32 KNHC 281443 TCPAT2 BULLETIN HURRICANE KATRINA ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005 ...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE KATRINA...EVEN STRONGER...HEADED FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER...INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO DESTIN FLORIDA...AND FROM WEST OF MORGAN CITY TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FROM DESTIN FLORIDA EASTWARD TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA...AND FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA WESTWARD TO CAMERON LOUISIANA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 88.1 WEST OR ABOUT 225 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 175 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KATRINA IS A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES. THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE RECENTLY MEASURED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 907 MB...26.78 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 18 TO 22 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...LOCALLY AS HIGH AS 28 FEET ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE PATH OF KATRINA ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING THIS EVENING OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI...AND ALABAMA...AND OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. REPEATING THE 10 AM CDT POSITION...26.0 N... 88.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 175 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 907 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 PM CDT. FORECASTER PASCH |
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A quote from that site: "Hurricane Camille is the most intense storm of any kind to ever strike mainland America in modern history." Does Katrina appear to be even more powerful than Camille? |
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166 knots!!!! THATS 191 MPH MAX WINDS NOW!! 175MPH SUSTAINED
New vortex: QUOTE 237 URNT12 KNHC 281431 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE A. 28/14:17:00Z B. 25 deg 58 min N 088 deg 03 min W C. 700 mb 2294 m D. NA kt E. deg nm F. 306 deg 140 kt G. 221 deg 014 nm H. 907 mb I. 12 C/ 3059 m J. 26 C/ 3048 m K. 6 C/ NA L. CLOSED WALL M. C22 N. 12345/ 7 O. 1 / 1 nm P. AF302 1712A KATRINA OB 21 MAX FL WIND 166 KTS OUTBOUND NE QUAD 1422Z. PERFECT STADIUM EFFECT AND TEXTBOOK RADAR DEPICTION OF EYEWALL. |
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10AM Advisory says that max sustained winds are at 175mph with higher gusts and pressure has dropped to 907MB...Hurricane force winds out to 105 miles from the center...a 210 mile front!
If this thing makes landfall at or near this level, or...God help us...higher, New Orleans alone may, indeed, experience hundreds of deaths and billions of dollars of damage, not to mention the rest of the Gulf Coast. Martial Law was declared after Camille, and Nixon sent 1000 troops into the area. My guess is that we may see a repeat of that scenario after Katrina, but with a much more massive relief and enforcement effort. You guys over there hunker down tight and get ready for some very serious shit if this one stays as strong as she is now! |
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Good luck to you other southeast LA guys. This will probably be my last post for a while, I'm on the northshore though, so hopefully we won't get as pounded as Plaquemines, St Bernard, etc Plus here I'm above sea level, so flooding hopefully will not be an issue. Been working all morning hanging plywood, yesterday I cut it all. The only problem is the amount of oaks that are in the area but they have survived for 50 yrs more or less and rode out the big ones of the century.
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Darn liberals. |
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Not yet, but she is not all that far from it, and from what I read, she is expected to undergo at least one more "eyewall replacement" cycle before landfall, which may, depending upon what point in the cycle she hits land, cause her to be at a lower intensity level, or not. Katrina is definitely a much larger storm than Camille...almost twice as large from what I am reading. (I am most certainly no expert on this stuff) |
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A dirct hit, may be more catastrophic than the big earthquake they keep predicting. This will be a national emergency of epic proportions.
M4 |
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