From the tropical prediction center as of 11am EST: www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/081448.shtml?


SATELLITE AND EARLIER RECONNAISSANCE FIXES INDICATE THAT IVAN IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 KNOTS. DURING
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF
IVAN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE...FORCING IVAN TO MOVE TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST. THEREAFTER...THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND A
BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIKELY BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE GULF
OF MEXICO. THIS PATTERN SHOULD MOVE THE HURRICANE ON A NORTHWEST
AND NORTH-NORTHWEST TRACK WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. IT MUST
BE EMPHASIZED THAT THE FORECAST TRACK BEYOND 72 HOURS IS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN SINCE STEERING CURRENTS WILL BE WEAK AND ARE CURRENTLY
NOT WELL-DEFINED IN THE FORECAST MODELS. IN FACT...SOME RELIABLE
MODELS BRING IVAN OVER FLORIDA AND ANOTHER RELIABLE GROUP MOVE THE
HURRICANE TOWARD THE GULF OF MEXICO. THERE IS NO APPARENT REASON TO
FAVOR ONE SCENARIO OVER THE OTHER AT THIS TIME. THEREFORE...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS NEAR THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND
PRESUMES THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH RIDGING TO KEEP THE HURRICANE ON
A NORTHWEST TO NORTH-NORTHWEST TRACK... BRINGING DANGEROUS IVAN
OVER WESTERN CUBA IN 4 DAYS AND INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY
DAY FIVE.  

Sounds like they're saying 50/50 chance of hitting or missing Florida.

Quoted: From the tropical prediction center as of 11am EST: www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/081448.shtml? SATELLITE AND EARLIER RECONNAISSANCE FIXES INDICATE THAT IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 KNOTS. DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF IVAN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE...FORCING IVAN TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THEREAFTER...THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND A BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIKELY BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS PATTERN SHOULD MOVE THE HURRICANE ON A NORTHWEST AND NORTH-NORTHWEST TRACK WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. IT MUST BE EMPHASIZED THAT THE FORECAST TRACK BEYOND 72 HOURS IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN SINCE STEERING CURRENTS WILL BE WEAK AND ARE CURRENTLY NOT WELL-DEFINED IN THE FORECAST MODELS. IN FACT...SOME RELIABLE MODELS BRING IVAN OVER FLORIDA AND ANOTHER RELIABLE GROUP MOVE THE HURRICANE TOWARD THE GULF OF MEXICO. THERE IS NO APPARENT REASON TO FAVOR ONE SCENARIO OVER THE OTHER AT THIS TIME. THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS NEAR THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND PRESUMES THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH RIDGING TO KEEP THE HURRICANE ON A NORTHWEST TO NORTH-NORTHWEST TRACK... BRINGING DANGEROUS IVAN OVER WESTERN CUBA IN 4 DAYS AND INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY DAY FIVE.   Sounds like they're saying 50/50 chance of hitting or missing Florida.

They really like to stick their necks out dont they? I give them credit though, these things a very hard to predict.

this is a BOHCA incident

REPENT!

THE END IS NEAR!

Quoted: Sounds like they're saying 50/50 chance of hitting or missing Florida.

I'll give them a 50% chance of being right or wrong...





Bigfeet

I REALLY don't like that blue line, brasspile!

They don't call the weather guessers for nothing.  I'ld throw that yellow line out, some computer is getting bad data.

I'ld try and look at where the high pressure areas and low pressure areas are and then guess the highs will tend to push toward lows and whats left  of Frances (a Low) will try to pull it along.  In other words I'm guessing it's  going to go over Key West and smack the snot out those parts of FL that last two didn't get.

The big pusher is that high over the Great Basin, if it drops southerly, then Ivan veers north and into FL, if the high drifts East, then Ivan doesn't veer too much and heads into the Gulf.  My 2 cents worth and based on experience with Typhoons around Guam, WestPac and the Philippines.  The big steerer there was highs coming out of Central Asia.

I'll stick with earthquakes Thank You.

The purple line worries me.

Direct hit.

Quoted: Is most of FL "resupplied" from Charley/Ivan in terms of fresh water, food, ice, wood, etc???

Nope, not even close, although we have plenty of wood.  There are still many gas stations without gas (and/or power).  Bread, milk, water, and ice are hard to come by in most areas.  There are still many, many homes in the Orlando area with bare wood showing instead of their roof.  Looting is still occurring in the harder hit areas.  Someone drove a pickup truck through a computer store late last night and stole all the computers from the store.  It was privately owned, and the owner did not have insurance.  People still do not have power in some areas.  Melbourne is in lockdown, curfew from Midnight to 6AM.  I would say that Florida has got a long way to recover…


Bigfeet

Edited to add:  Oh yeah, and there is still flooding in some areas.  The higher ups are guessing that the St. John's River will flood in the next couple of days.

For all you folks in the Tampa/St. Pete area...this could be the "Big One" we hoped would never come...I don't run the computer models, but my gut tells me we're gonna get smacked HARD this time...I don't have a good feeling about Ivan...I really, really, really hope I'm wrong...

Quoted: For all you folks in the Tampa/St. Pete area...this could be the "Big One" we hoped would never come...I don't run the computer models, but my gut tells me we're gonna get smacked HARD this time...I don't have a good feeling about Ivan...I really, really, really hope I'm wrong...

Well Tampa is still flooded from what I heard on the news this morning...


Bigfeet

Quoted: Quoted: For all you folks in the Tampa/St. Pete area...this could be the "Big One" we hoped would never come...I don't run the computer models, but my gut tells me we're gonna get smacked HARD this time...I don't have a good feeling about Ivan...I really, really, really hope I'm wrong... Well Tampa is still flooded from what I heard on the news this morning... Bigfeet

Some parts...and that's mostly local street flooding...the real tragedy around here is along the Alafia river...the storm ended Monday, but the river crested today...many houses are completely flooded out...

If a Cat 4 or Cat 5 hurricane hit Tampa Bay head on, the storm surge would inundate everything from the shore inland to I-275...that's all of downtown Tampa, Ybor, MacDill, etc. UNDER WATER...it would be a catastrophe of Biblical proportions, even before factoring in the wind damage...look at a map of Tampa and you'll see what I mean...it would easily be a $50-60 BILLION price tag...plus, all those jobs and businesses wiped out in mere minutes...Florida's economy would take years to fully recover...

GO AWAY, IVAN!!!

Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: For all you folks in the Tampa/St. Pete area...this could be the "Big One" we hoped would never come...I don't run the computer models, but my gut tells me we're gonna get smacked HARD this time...I don't have a good feeling about Ivan...I really, really, really hope I'm wrong... Well Tampa is still flooded from what I heard on the news this morning... Bigfeet Some parts...and that's mostly local street flooding...the real tragedy around here is along the Alafia river...the storm ended Monday, but the river crested today...many houses are completely flooded out... If a Cat 4 or Cat 5 hurricane hit Tampa Bay head on, the storm surge would inundate everything from the shore inland to I-275...that's all of downtown Tampa, Ybor, MacDill, etc. UNDER WATER...it would be a catastrophe of Biblical proportions, even before factoring in the wind damage...look at a map of Tampa and you'll see what I mean...it would easily be a $50-60 BILLION price tag...plus, all those jobs and businesses wiped out in mere minutes...Florida's economy would take years to fully recover... GO AWAY, IVAN!!!

I agree completely.  MY sister in law lives in New Tampa...  It will be tough pulling security in two locations.  Oh well.


Bigfeet

NEW PROJECTED PATH!

Quoted: NEW PROJECTED PATH! photos.ar15.com/WS_Content/ImageGallery/Attachments/DownloadAttach.asp?sAccountUnq=12631&iGalleryUnq=79&iImageUnq=29585

sorry, that just cracks me up...

I know its not funny, sorry...

this has really been an active season, I wonder what the winter wll be like? always seems to me that every time we getting so much tropical activity we see alot of winter storms also.

Quoted: this has really been an active season, I wonder what the winter wll be like? always seems to me that every time we getting so much tropical activity we see alot of winter storms also.

Hopefully none of those ice storms like I went through in 2000...


Bigfeet

Quoted: images.snapfish.com/33%3B78%3C3923232%7Ffp64%3Dot%3E232%3B%3D686%3D393%3DXROQDF%3E23235%3C936%3A578ot1lsi

Fuck! You owe me a keyboard! I havent laughed that hard in a while! Thanks.

ETA: That points right at my house!

Gallows humor?? Good Luck, looks like you are going to have a long Fall.

Quoted: Gallows humor?? Good Luck, looks like you are going to have a long Fall.

Don't say THAT to a skydiver !  

Well, it's official kids, local weather person indicated that the hurricane will make landfall in Florida on Tuesday morning.  It will come up through the Southern tip, and proceed North.

Time to go into full SHTF mode again!  Another weekend pissed away...


Bigfeet

Quoted: images.snapfish.com/33%3B78%3C3923232%7Ffp64%3Dot%3E232%3B%3D686%3D393%3DXROQDF%3E23235%3C936%3A578ot1lsi

If'n yer still in Florida, get the hell out now........from 135mph to 160mph sustained with a minimum pressure of 921mb....this one is gonna get REAL ugly.

Here is the latest from AccuWeather.com

Hurricane Ivan is now a Category 5 hurricane with sustained winds of 160 mph and gusts to 190 mph. As of Thursday morning, Ivan was located about 525 miles southeast of Kingston, Jamaica. This storm is expected to move to the west-northwest at about 15 mph, gradually adopting a more northerly track. Ivan poses a great threat to Jamaica and Cuba. Those with interests in Florida and the Gulf of Mexico should continue to monitor this storm closely, as it may threaten these areas early next week. With plenty of warm water and weak winds in the upper-levels of the atmosphere, Ivan will remain very strong as it pushes into the West Indies.

Sustained of 160!!

Gusts of 190!!!!!!!!!!!!!   The center of Ivan is like a 100 mile wide Tornado!!!!

More from the same site as above

Hurricane Ivan is a dangerous and rare Category 5 hurricane. As of 8 AM EDT, Ivan was centered at 14.2 north, 70.7 west, or about 455 miles southeast of Kingston, Jamaica. Ivan is moving west-northwestward at 15 mph. Maximum sustained winds are 160 mph. The central pressure in Ivan was down to 919 millibars or 27.14 inches for a time, as recorded by reconnaissance aircraft, then came back up to 921 millibars (27.20 inches). The 919 millibar central pressure ties with the 9th lowest central pressure ever found in an Atlantic basin hurricane; Opal in 1995 recorded 919 millibars as its lowest central pressure. We expect Ivan to continue on a west-northwest course for the next 2 days, and will be over or close to Jamaica on Friday. Ivan will probably continue to undergo fluctuations in its strength as it undergoes changes in the eyewall structure but will remain a major hurricane for the next few days. The track that Ivan takes past the end of the week is very uncertain. Model output is showing a gradual turn to the northwest and then to the north toward Florida Sunday and Monday. However, this far out we cannot be sure of the track. All interests in the northern and northwest Caribbean, as well as all interests in the Gulf of Mexico and Florida. should keep a close eye on Ivan.

Evacuations Orders given.
Foxnews
No details yet, looks like Florida's going to get nailed again.

....fuck  

Quoted: Here is the latest from AccuWeather.com Gusts of 190!!!!!!!!!!!!!   The center of Ivan is like a 100 mile wide Tornado!!!!

and a 3 , Severe Tornado, on the Fujita scale ( 0-6 ) at that. good observation.

Quoted: Quoted: Here is the latest from AccuWeather.com Gusts of 190!!!!!!!!!!!!!   The center of Ivan is like a 100 mile wide Tornado!!!! and a 3 , Severe Tornado, on the Fujita scale ( 0-6 ) at that. good observation.

Thanks

Ivan looks like a 100 year storm. If the above future track is correct, we are screwed bigtime!
Ivan is 'gonna make Andrew of '92 look like a red-headed step-child. I wasn't too worried about Charley or Frances, but Ivan has me praying to the lord above. God help us if this thing hits according to the track above! Check out the look of Ivan, he's got a world of hurt in store for us!





HS1

GO AWAY, DAMMIT!

WTF HAS FLORIDA DONE TO YOU LATELY?

Quoted: I agree completely.  MY sister in law lives in New Tampa...  It will be tough pulling security in two locations.  Oh well. Bigfeet

Let me know if you need some help next week...

Boy am I glad I don't live in FL.  I feel for those who do - this one looks real bad.

<yawn>  No biggie - it's only a Cat 5 now.

Ugh..... You people really need to move out of florida.

Quoted: Ugh..... You people really need to move out of florida.

Tell me that again in January...

From Kingstown, St. Vincent:





Bigfeet

Quoted: Quoted: I agree completely.  MY sister in law lives in New Tampa...  It will be tough pulling security in two locations.  Oh well. Bigfeet Let me know if you need some help next week...

Where are you out of?  I really may need the help...  They have two kids and just barely make it month to month.  I would hate to have someone steal their things.  They are hard workers that just got the raw end of life...


Bigfeet

ALERT - EVACUATIONS FOR FLORIDA KEYS - ALERT

KEY WEST, Fla. - All tourists and recreational vehicles were urged to evacuate the Florida Keys early Thursday because the powerful Hurricane Ivan could hit the island chain by Sunday. Ivan became a Category 5 hurricane overnight with winds up to 160 mph. Forecasters say it could continue to strengthen as it moves toward Jamaica, where it is expected to make landfall Friday or Saturday before heading on to Cuba and then possibly Florida. At 8 a.m. EDT, Ivan's center was about 455 miles southeast of Kingston, Jamaica, or about 1,000 miles southeast of Miami. National Hurricane Center (news - web sites) forecasters predict that Ivan could hit the Florida Keys as a Category 4 hurricane, with winds of 131 to 155 mph, late Sunday or early Monday. "I don't think that people will think twice when we tell them it's a Four heading right at us. I think they will be pretty responsive," said Monroe County emergency manager Irene Toner. Monroe County emergency officials said the order was effective at 9 a.m. Thursday. It is the third visitor evacuation ordered in the Keys in a month, the previous two coming for Hurricanes Charley and Frances. Ivan pummeled Grenada, Barbados and other islands with its devastating winds and rains, causing at least 15 deaths, before setting a direct course for Jamaica, Cuba and the hurricane-weary southern United States. The most powerful hurricane to hit the Caribbean in 10 years damaged 90 percent of the homes in Grenada and destroyed a 17th century stone prison that left criminals on the loose as looting erupted, officials said Wednesday. The storm's howling winds and drenching rains also flooded parts of Venezuela's north coast. Helicopter charter companies were busy Wednesday ferrying evacuated workers back to offshore oil drilling platforms there. "After Jamaica, it's probably going to hit somewhere in the U.S., unfortunately," said meteorologist Jennifer Pralgo of the U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami. "We're hoping it's not Florida again, but it's taking a fairly similar track to Charley at the moment." Another meteorologist at the Miami center, Hugh Cobb, added this grim warning: "Whoever gets this, it's going to be bad." Cobb said that if Ivan hit Jamaica, it could be more destructive than Hurricane Gilbert, which was only Category 3 when it devastated the island in 1988. Jamaica posted a hurricane watch Wednesday afternoon and ordered all schools closed and fishermen to pull their skiffs ashore and head for dry land. Haiti's southwest peninsula was on hurricane watch as well. Ivan became the fourth major hurricane of a busy Atlantic season Sunday.

story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/ap/hurricane_ivan_florida

HURRICANE FUN FACT:

Since 1886 there have only been 22 Cat. 5 Hurricanes!   23 If you count Andrew (was upgraded to a Cat 5 on its 10th anniversery  And 24 counting Ivan!


List of Category 5 Atlantic Hurricanes
(1886 - Present)
Number  Storm Name  Maximum Wind  Date Attained  (UTC)  Landfall as Category 5  

1  Not Named  140 kt 160 mph  Sep 13, 1928  Puerto Rico  
2  Not Named  140 kt 160 mph  Sep 5, 1932  Bahamas  
3  Not Named  140 kt 160 mph  Sep 3, 1935  US/FL Keys  
4  Not Named  140 kt 160 mph  Sep 19, 1938  ---  
5  Not Named  140 kt 160 mph  Sep 16, 1947  Bahamas  
6  Dog  160 kt 185 mph  Sep 6, 1950  ---  
7  Easy  140 kt 160 mph  Sep 7, 1951  ---  
8  Janet  150 kt 175 mph  Sep 28, 1955  Mexico  
9  Cleo  140 kt 160 mph  Aug 16, 1958  ---  
10  Donna  140 kt 160 mph  Sep 4, 1960  ---  
11  Ethel  140 kt 160 mph  Sep 15, 1960  ---  
12  Carla  150 kt 175 mph  Sep 11, 1961  ---  
13  Hattie  140 kt 160 mph  Oct 30, 1961  ---  
14  Beulah  140 kt 160 mph  Sep 20, 1967  ---  
15  Camille  165 kt 190 mph  Aug 17, 1969  US/MS  
16  Edith  140 kt 160 mph  Sep 9, 1971  Nicaragua  
17  Anita  150 kt 175 mph  Sep 2, 1977  ---  
18  David  150 kt 175 mph  Aug 30, 1979  ---  
19  Allen  165 kt 190 mph  Aug 7, 1980  ---  
20  Gilbert  160 kt 185 mph  Sep 14, 1988  Mexico  
21  Hugo  140 kt 160 mph  Sep 15, 1989  ---  
22  Mitch  155 kt 180 mph  Oct 26, 1998  ---  

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Interesting Facts
Note that several infamous storms which struck the U.S. are listed in the table above, but no entry appears in the "Landfall" column. This is because the storms had weakened to below Category 5 intensity at the time of U.S. landfall. Hurricanes which had reached Category 5 intensity but had weakened by the time of U.S. landfall include: hurricanes of 1928, 1938 (New England Hurricane), and 1947, plus Donna (1960), Ethel (1960), Carla (1961), Beulah (1967), David (1979), Allen (1980), Hugo (1989), and Mitch (1998). Though it was an extremely strong Category 4 storm, even at landfall, Hurricane Andrew never achieved Category 5 status.


Most Intense At U.S Landfall:  1935 Florida Keys  892 mb/  26.35 in/  140 kt  
Highest Winds at U.S. Landfall:  1969 Camille  909 mb/  26.84 in/  165 kt  
Most Intense Atlantic Hurricane:  1988 Gilbert  888 mb/  26.22 in/  160 kt  
Longest as Category Five:*  1980 Allen  899 mb/  26.55 in/  165 kt  

* Hurricane Allen reached Category 5 intensity three times along its path through the southern Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico: twice these periods were of 24-hours duration and the third lasted 18 hours.


1) With the exception of Camille, no Category 5 hurricanes have ever existed north of 30 degrees N nor south of 14 degrees N.
2) Four oceanic areas have experienced Category 5 intensity hurricanes twice: (26.5N, 77W), (18N, 86W),(24.5N, 96.5W) and (28-30N, 89W) (the path of Camille)!
3) Areas which have never experienced a landfalling hurricane of Category 5 intensity include: the U.S. East Coast, Cuba, Jamaica, nor most of the Windward or Leeward Islands!


lwf.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/satellite/satelliteseye/educational/cat5hur.html

If this bastard comes ashore in Florida, I'm waiting it out in Miami with my girls. I'll chase it north to Ocala like I did Charley if I have to....

This is the first one where I'm considering sending my wife and kids up north.

This fucker is blowing down BLOCK houses.  Like mine.

Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: I agree completely.  MY sister in law lives in New Tampa...  It will be tough pulling security in two locations.  Oh well. Bigfeet Let me know if you need some help next week... Where are you out of?  I really may need the help...  They have two kids and just barely make it month to month.  I would hate to have someone steal their things.  They are hard workers that just got the raw end of life... Bigfeet

I am in Riverview...just outside Tampa...where are you?

I'm watching this fucker closely...just let me know, bro...

Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: I agree completely.  MY sister in law lives in New Tampa...  It will be tough pulling security in two locations.  Oh well. Bigfeet Let me know if you need some help next week... Where are you out of?  I really may need the help...  They have two kids and just barely make it month to month.  I would hate to have someone steal their things.  They are hard workers that just got the raw end of life... Bigfeet I am in Riverview...just outside Tampa...where are you? I'm watching this fucker closely...just let me know, bro...

10-4.  I am in Orlando, just 20 miniutes from the airport.  I think we are screwed...


Bigfeet

Quoted: Though it was an extremely strong Category 4 storm, even at landfall, Hurricane Andrew never achieved Category 5 status.

Actually, Andrew was later upgraded to Category 5... www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories/s966.htm

Damn.....FL guys-I feel for you

Quoted: Quoted: Though it was an extremely strong Category 4 storm, even at landfall, Hurricane Andrew never achieved Category 5 status. Actually, Andrew was later upgraded to Category 5... www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories/s966.htm

AFTER 10 YEARS, HURRICANE ANDREW GAINS STRENGTH August 21 , 2002 — In the record books, it’s still one of America’s costliest hurricanes, and today NOAA scientists announced Hurricane Andrew was even stronger than originally believed when it made landfall in south Florida 10 years ago this week. Based on new research, scientists upgraded the storm from a Category 4, to a Category 5, the highest on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale.

I don't see how they made a 20 MPH wind mistake with actual measuring gauges, and now they "Estimate" that the winds were stronger.  

“Our previous estimate was 145 mph, based on the science available in 1992. With advanced research techniques and technology, we now estimate the winds were stronger.”

I guess it is possible, it was one bad ass Hurricane!