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Posted: 5/20/2022 1:28:05 PM EDT
[#1]
30k
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Posted: 5/20/2022 1:38:32 PM EDT
[#2]
Quote HistoryQuoted: 30k Shit. The way we’re dropping you may see that in the next 3 hours. |
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Posted: 5/20/2022 1:46:16 PM EDT
[#3]
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Posted: 5/20/2022 1:48:14 PM EDT
[#4]
I'm gonna say 19500
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Posted: 5/20/2022 1:48:44 PM EDT
[#5]
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Posted: 5/20/2022 1:53:50 PM EDT
[#6]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Shit. The way we’re dropping you may see that in the next 3 hours. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: 30k Shit. The way we’re dropping you may see that in the next 3 hours. yeah, like the actual bottom it rebounds off, not this week 
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Posted: 5/20/2022 1:55:48 PM EDT
[#7]
19,990
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Posted: 5/20/2022 1:59:40 PM EDT
[#8]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Lowest by what time frame ? Ever. ‘Cause When it gets low enough, the Fed jumps in to weaken the dollar. C’mon man. |
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Posted: 5/20/2022 2:00:52 PM EDT
[#9]
9500
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Posted: 5/20/2022 2:01:52 PM EDT
[#10]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Lowest by what time frame ? lets say before may 20th 2024. 2 years from today. |
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Posted: 5/20/2022 2:03:13 PM EDT
[#11]
Based on nothing but watching the markets since the 90s (I was a weird kid) I think it’s gonna dip into the low 20s.
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Posted: 5/20/2022 2:05:00 PM EDT
[#12]
29,987
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Posted: 5/20/2022 2:11:34 PM EDT
[#13]
We could phrase this a different way: How far will it fall, before the Fed reverses course and re-starts with the QE 4 (or whatever were up to, I lost track)?
Maybe this is fodder for another thread, but for anyone in the Market, THIS is the real question. Or, put another way, how far would it fall, without any Fed intervention? In 2007, it hit a high of just under 14,000, then it hit a low of 7600 in 2009. So, 9000 was probably the approximate “fair price” back then. In those days, direct market manipulation was a sort of conspiracy theory. Remember the PPT? So, after all the cheapening of the Dollar with the TARPs, and after QE I-IV, and after the PP and manna from heaven Stimi monays, and all the helicopter money dropped double unemployment checks, and other assorted welfare, and the Trillions spent buying mortgage backed securities, and of course, the unrestrained unrestrained government spending and debt accrual, what would be the equivalent inflation adjusted price today? Google says 12,500, but I think that’s undercounted. Factor in whatever real growth you think we’ve had, and you have your answer. Guessing ~ 22,000 -ish, but human emotions bring it lower. Maybe 20,000?  That would indeed be a time to bet the house. Literally re-mortgage the House and buy.
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Posted: 5/20/2022 2:15:36 PM EDT
[#14]
Complete ballpark in 10 seconds of looking at the chart, 16500 by year end. I'm quite bearish at the moment, as there's a lot of leverage to unwind.
Of course, the Fed could stretch this out but eventually it will catch up in some fashion. |
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Posted: 5/20/2022 2:19:45 PM EDT
[#15]
18500
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Posted: 5/20/2022 2:20:48 PM EDT
[#16]
Quote HistoryQuoted: We could phrase this a different way: How far will it fall, before the Fed reverses course and re-starts with the QE 4 (or whatever were up to, I lost track)? Maybe this is fodder for another thread, but for anyone in the Market, THIS is the real question. Or, put another way, how far would it fall, without any Fed intervention? If they resume intervention, the lower income half of the population gets completely crushed by inflation, which then makes major impact on a lot of companies...and stock prices go down. Decades of declining rate environment leaves Fed, some businesses, and some people, firmly painted into a corner. |
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Posted: 5/20/2022 2:23:29 PM EDT
[#17]
22,220
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Posted: 5/20/2022 2:43:28 PM EDT
[#18]
Quote HistoryQuoted: If they resume intervention, the lower income half of the population gets completely crushed by inflation, which then makes major impact on a lot of companies...and stock prices go down. Decades of declining rate environment leaves Fed, some businesses, and some people, firmly painted into a corner. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: We could phrase this a different way: How far will it fall, before the Fed reverses course and re-starts with the QE 4 (or whatever were up to, I lost track)? Maybe this is fodder for another thread, but for anyone in the Market, THIS is the real question. Or, put another way, how far would it fall, without any Fed intervention? If they resume intervention, the lower income half of the population gets completely crushed by inflation, which then makes major impact on a lot of companies...and stock prices go down. Decades of declining rate environment leaves Fed, some businesses, and some people, firmly painted into a corner. Roger that. “May you live in interesting times”. The funniest thing is, this was completely unnecessary. All they had to do was stabilize rates prior to covid, give unemployment benefits to those who needed them, and not shut everything down. They created far too much fake money, and far too many people thought it was real. 
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Posted: 5/20/2022 2:49:17 PM EDT
[#19]
Quote HistoryQuoted: 0 What do I win? Does "the heat death of the universe" count as a bottom? If so, you win!  |
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Posted: 5/20/2022 2:59:59 PM EDT
[#20]
between energy costs and interest rate hikes, its a bit of a vicious cycle.
when those stabilize and start to reverse, then we'll find the bottom. |
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Posted: 5/20/2022 3:01:33 PM EDT
[#21]
Quote HistoryQuoted: lets say before may 20th 2024. 2 years from today. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Lowest by what time frame ? lets say before may 20th 2024. 2 years from today. That is pretty far out. Hard to say. Just for fun I'll guess 22,000. |
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Posted: 5/20/2022 3:07:04 PM EDT
[#22]
12,705
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Posted: 5/20/2022 3:10:02 PM EDT
[#23]
13,027
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Posted: 5/20/2022 3:16:40 PM EDT
[#24]
65% off the ATH
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Posted: 5/20/2022 3:18:29 PM EDT
[#25]
25314
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Posted: 5/20/2022 3:18:50 PM EDT
[#26]
Quote HistoryQuoted: That is pretty far out. Hard to say. Just for fun I'll guess 22,000. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Quoted: Lowest by what time frame ? lets say before may 20th 2024. 2 years from today. That is pretty far out. Hard to say. Just for fun I'll guess 22,000. I don't think it'll take anywhere near that long. The fed must raise rates to combat inflation. Must at this point. Rising rates will push the market down. My real question is what interest rate will it take to stop inflation. 6%? 12? we will see. |
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Posted: 5/20/2022 3:23:11 PM EDT
[#27]
15k
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Posted: 5/20/2022 3:28:01 PM EDT
[#28]
$24,532.85
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Posted: 5/20/2022 4:17:09 PM EDT
[#29]
The real question is: Will this Finally bring the price of .22lr back to earth?
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Posted: 5/20/2022 4:36:12 PM EDT
[#30]
Full-on crash sometime this summer, bottom somewhere in the teens next year. I also think Tether finally unravels and bitcoin breaks below <10k.
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Posted: 5/20/2022 5:26:34 PM EDT
[#31]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I don't think it'll take anywhere near that long. The fed must raise rates to combat inflation. Must at this point. Rising rates will push the market down. My real question is what interest rate will it take to stop inflation. 6%? 12? we will see. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: Lowest by what time frame ? lets say before may 20th 2024. 2 years from today. That is pretty far out. Hard to say. Just for fun I'll guess 22,000. I don't think it'll take anywhere near that long. The fed must raise rates to combat inflation. Must at this point. Rising rates will push the market down. My real question is what interest rate will it take to stop inflation. 6%? 12? we will see. I don't think they will raise anywhere near that high, I don't think they can. Wouldnt they default on the national debt because interest would be too high? |
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Posted: 5/20/2022 5:28:41 PM EDT
[#32]
Who even references the Dow anymore?
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Posted: 5/20/2022 5:48:49 PM EDT
[#33]
2 dooollars
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Posted: 5/20/2022 5:56:00 PM EDT
[#34]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Who even references the Dow anymore? Which reference should we use? |
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Posted: 5/20/2022 6:08:47 PM EDT
[#35]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Which reference should we use? S&P500 |
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Posted: 5/20/2022 6:11:01 PM EDT
[#36]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Which reference should we use? Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Who even references the Dow anymore? Which reference should we use? Peter Navarro on Bannon's War Room today said he thinks it'll bottom out when the Dow gets down to the low 20,000s. He called the top around Veterans Day, 2021. I went 50% into cash when he did, and moved the rest out in March. |
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Posted: 5/20/2022 6:18:06 PM EDT
[#37]
18787
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Posted: 5/20/2022 7:03:14 PM EDT
[#38]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Who even references the Dow anymore? I don’t. I give zero fucks about 30 companies. |
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Posted: 5/20/2022 7:08:36 PM EDT
[#39]
Quote HistoryQuoted: S&P500 Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Which reference should we use? S&P500 its a better overall measure of economic performance because it has more datapoints, but the dows more fun. those who fly highest have the farthest to fall. |
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Posted: 5/20/2022 7:19:55 PM EDT
[#40]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I don’t. I give zero fucks about 30 companies. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Who even references the Dow anymore? I don’t. I give zero fucks about 30 companies.  Attached Filemarket cap of those 30 is 12 trillion about 30% of the sp500. |
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Posted: 5/20/2022 7:22:49 PM EDT
[#41]
8778.
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Posted: 5/20/2022 7:23:14 PM EDT
[#42]
Quote HistoryQuoted: /media/mediaFiles/sharedAlbum/dont_believe_you_anchorman_zps267e5cbb_GIF-108.gif market cap of those 30 is 12 trillion about 30% of the sp500. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Quoted: Who even references the Dow anymore? I don’t. I give zero fucks about 30 companies. /media/mediaFiles/sharedAlbum/dont_believe_you_anchorman_zps267e5cbb_GIF-108.gif market cap of those 30 is 12 trillion about 30% of the sp500. I honestly don’t pay attention to Dow. |
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Posted: 5/20/2022 7:23:19 PM EDT
[#43]
Quote HistoryHas Cramer ever called anything right? Ever? It seems like whatever he says, do the opposite. |
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Posted: 5/20/2022 7:27:12 PM EDT
[#44]
Chances it hits these
29k is 100% 25k 75% 20k 50% But 20k will be the ultimate bottom give or take a couple 100 Or whatever |
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Posted: 5/20/2022 7:27:24 PM EDT
[#45]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Has Cramer ever called anything right? Ever? It seems like whatever he says, do the opposite. |
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Posted: 5/20/2022 7:31:37 PM EDT
[#46]
6487.25
Is this like the price is right, closest without going over? If so, above or below? |
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Posted: 5/20/2022 7:52:29 PM EDT
[#47]
Ok my prediction is SPY 356.
That’s based on a 38% fib retracement on the difference between the pre covid price of 280 and the peak of 480. Were at 389 now which means we have 33 points to go before it goes back up for a while. (It may resume falling later this year) (22,910 for djia) |
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Posted: 5/20/2022 8:11:58 PM EDT
[#48]
21000
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Posted: 5/20/2022 8:28:35 PM EDT
[#49]
29% draw down so 25,000.
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Posted: 5/20/2022 9:52:17 PM EDT
[#50]
In my opinion, trying to even call or guess a bottom is a waste of brain power. This is coming from someone who worked at some of the largest actively managed funds. Just my .02
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