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Link Posted: 1/19/2022 2:47:26 PM EDT
[#1]
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Better than fine, those oil stocks are finally taking a run
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Better than fine, those oil stocks are finally taking a run

Oh, it’s very good for producers and those invested in energy.  

It’s not so good for other companies built on a disposable income model.
Link Posted: 1/19/2022 2:51:56 PM EDT
[#2]
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Ok, to the ultimate permabull, is there a point where US equities are no longer a good deal?

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FJGBa4YXwAESGcB?format=png&name=900x900

I'm a value guy.  I don't see value there.  Other than a few rare stocks, I have to leave the US to find any value.
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Which was a great year if you just kept maxing your 401k and keeping 100% us sp500 fund

My 401k is like 65k. And I just started it 18 months ago.


Ok, to the ultimate permabull, is there a point where US equities are no longer a good deal?

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FJGBa4YXwAESGcB?format=png&name=900x900

I'm a value guy.  I don't see value there.  Other than a few rare stocks, I have to leave the US to find any value.


what if I told you, giant caps receive a large portions of profits from outside the us?
Link Posted: 1/19/2022 2:55:07 PM EDT
[#3]
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Aaah, OK. My bad.
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I had a review with my wealth manager yeserday. We laughed about how the market was "tanking". I told her I wasn't worried until she called me in a panic.
She showed me a couple of articles from smart people she follows that expect the Dow to be 40k+ by year's end.
Your wealth manager called you in a panic after looking at some articles?

I thought it was supposed to work the opposite way. I thought the client called the wealth manager in a panic, and the wealth manager applied some "behavioral coaching" to talk him down.


He's saying he wouldn't worry UNTIL she called him in a panic

Not that she did.  Wouldn't implies future tense.
Aaah, OK. My bad.

No, I read it the same way, everything is past tense so it sounds like it happened

The grammatically correct sentence should be:
I told her I wouldn't worry unless she calls me in a panic.
Link Posted: 1/19/2022 2:55:36 PM EDT
[#4]
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It's done nothing but go up for 2 YEARS.  A correction is NOT a bad thing.
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Link Posted: 1/19/2022 2:56:27 PM EDT
[#5]
Link Posted: 1/19/2022 3:31:46 PM EDT
[#6]
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Reminds of the wonder years with the Zero in charge.  One up day followed by three down days.  Went on for years.
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Reminds of the wonder years with the Zero in charge.  One up day followed by three down days.  Went on for years.


Quoted:this....
its amazing how stagnant the Market was. toward the end of Obama, it really couldn't take it anymore and had to start making some progress. then magically...when T$ got into office it took off.


I was curious on this early posts so I went looking.  Memory is funny, as are recoveries from crises.  Real S&P numbers beg to differ.  It would be terrible if we were stuck with 2008-2016 returns...https://www.macrotrends.net/2614/sp500-performance-by-president-from-election-date
P.S. Trump years almost identical to 0's first 4
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Link Posted: 1/19/2022 3:32:06 PM EDT
[#7]
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what if I told you, giant caps receive a large portions of profits from outside the us?
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What if I told you, I saw your reply coming before you even typed it.


Some people assume that this increase in market capitalization to GDP is just because companies are selling more products like iPhones abroad. However, the opposite is true; US companies have a slightly lower percentage of their revenue coming from outside the US today when the market capitalization is 200% of GDP, than they did ten years ago when the market capitalization was 90% of GDP. So, it’s not as though the US market simply became more global during that time.

Instead, the increase in stock prices are primarily due to higher domestic corporate earnings and especially from higher valuations on those earnings, rather than international expansion.


--Lyn Alden  

She's the smartest person in the room.


Case for US stock reversal:
1) US has low interest rates.  They can't get any lower.  They can go a lot higher.

2) US has had extremely low corporate tax rates.  More likely to go up than down.

3) US households now have record high allocations to equities.

4) Literally everyone and their sister is investing their money in VTI/S&P500 fund.  It's become a large cap momentum strategy.  

Link Posted: 1/19/2022 3:37:25 PM EDT
[#8]
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Oh, it’s very good for producers and those invested in energy.  

It’s not so good for other companies built on a disposable income model.
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Better than fine, those oil stocks are finally taking a run

Oh, it’s very good for producers and those invested in energy.  

It’s not so good for other companies built on a disposable income model.


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Not great for most Americans, or most companies.  
I even worry about oil companies, since they can be taxed into oblivion.  For now it's going well.
Link Posted: 1/19/2022 3:47:36 PM EDT
[#9]
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Its an election year.  It will go UUUUPPPP to make the voters happy...even if they have to dump money blindly into the economy.  There will be stimulus and both parties will try to out do one another on vote buying.  


This would be a good time to open a store selling TVs, Rims, and fake handbags.  


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I disagree.  The party out of power (in this case the GOP) has a vested interest in some market pain.  It will make them look better going into the midterms, and 2024.  The Ds tried to keep the stimulus soup bubbling, but Manchin put the crimp on that.

This is not a prediction of where the market will go this year, it's just a disagreement about your premise.

The market has been on a tear for years.  "Trees don't grow to the sky."  There is no question the market will correct and return to the mean.  Anybody tells you they know for sure when that will happen, you better run away.

This is one of those cases when diversity truly is your friend.
Link Posted: 1/19/2022 3:50:03 PM EDT
[#10]
Might go a bit further down. Meh.



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Link Posted: 1/19/2022 3:51:42 PM EDT
[#11]
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That's a very short time frame on that graph.  Basically irrelevant wrt predicting big market movements.
Link Posted: 1/19/2022 3:54:57 PM EDT
[#12]
I have no 401k, but my regular account is a tad aggressive (too much small cap growth), so it's been rough for the last 6 weeks or so.

this too shall pass.
Link Posted: 1/19/2022 3:57:12 PM EDT
[#13]
Just upped my TSP contribution.

Got 14 years until I hit min retirement eligibility, soooo buy cheap and stack deep.
Link Posted: 1/19/2022 3:59:39 PM EDT
[#14]
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Your wealth manager called you in a panic after looking at some articles?

I thought it was supposed to work the opposite way. I thought the client called the wealth manager in a panic, and the wealth manager applied some "behavioral coaching" to talk him down.
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No, we were just doing a review of last year and planning for this year. She mentioned the market being down again and I confessed that I never look b/c I'm a long term guy. I wouldn't of a true crash unless she called telling me had to *insert some grand plan to limit the damage*.

Coincidentally she showed me a chart that I found interesting...in 16 of the past 30 years, the Dow was down 10%+ at some point during that year. The other years it was down at least 5% at some point. People losing their minds over 2% (especially when the current volitility means it will likely be back up that much tomorrow) is funny to me.
Link Posted: 1/19/2022 4:00:14 PM EDT
[#15]
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He's saying he wouldn't worry UNTIL she called him in a panic

Not that she did.  Wouldn't implies future tense.
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Slightly harsh, but yes.
Link Posted: 1/19/2022 4:03:02 PM EDT
[#16]
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I have no 401k, but my regular account is a tad aggressive (too much small cap growth), so it's been rough for the last 6 weeks or so.

this too shall pass.
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The Russell 2000 hasn't played along for the last year.  Not one bit.

Inflation is rampant, and it's down 2% YOY.  Almost as bad as my silver trade.  
Link Posted: 1/19/2022 4:05:23 PM EDT
[#17]
My 401k stopped losing money after I quit checking on it.
Link Posted: 1/19/2022 4:07:02 PM EDT
[#18]
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The Russell 2000 hasn't played along for the last year.  Not one bit.

Inflation is rampant, and it's down 2% YOY.  Almost as bad as my silver trade.  
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I have no 401k, but my regular account is a tad aggressive (too much small cap growth), so it's been rough for the last 6 weeks or so.

this too shall pass.


The Russell 2000 hasn't played along for the last year.  Not one bit.

Inflation is rampant, and it's down 2% YOY.  Almost as bad as my silver trade.  


That’s why I’m 100% large cap everywhere. I’m the boring turtle. But I like long term boring as it just plugs along…provided I just keep buying every damn week no matter what prices are doing.

It’s a very simple long term strategy, but it works very well. I likely wouldn’t be investing as much as I do (essentially one of our salaries not including tax deferred) but my financial plan calls for it if I want to meet my income goals for when we want to stop working.
Link Posted: 1/19/2022 4:08:26 PM EDT
[#19]
I've never seen so many sheep in an investment thread. JFC, some of you are your own worst enemy.
Link Posted: 1/19/2022 4:10:50 PM EDT
[#20]
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My 401k stopped losing money after I quit checking on it.
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mine did too when I cashed it out to buy beanie babies
Link Posted: 1/19/2022 4:11:20 PM EDT
[#21]
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I've never seen so many sheep in an investment thread. JFC, some of you are your own worst enemy.
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Make a thread about all time market record highs and you’ll get 6 replies. But people love their doom.
Link Posted: 1/19/2022 4:12:13 PM EDT
[#22]
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That's a very short time frame on that graph.  Basically irrelevant wrt predicting big market movements.
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That's a very short time frame on that graph.  Basically irrelevant wrt predicting big market movements.
It's just a trend line.  It doesn't predict anything.  It does however mean that a lot of people are paying attention to it and that can reinforce momentum.

Market Psychological Analysis.
Link Posted: 1/19/2022 4:22:10 PM EDT
[#23]
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mine did too when I cashed it out to buy beanie babies
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At least you didn't max out credit cards to buy em like that one couple.  
Link Posted: 1/19/2022 4:23:48 PM EDT
[#24]
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At least you didn't max out credit cards to buy em like that one couple.  
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mine did too when I cashed it out to buy beanie babies


At least you didn't max out credit cards to buy em like that one couple.  


exactly...you don't use leverage to speculate
Link Posted: 1/19/2022 4:29:14 PM EDT
[#25]
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exactly...you don't use leverage to speculate
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mine did too when I cashed it out to buy beanie babies


At least you didn't max out credit cards to buy em like that one couple.  


exactly...you don't use leverage to speculate


Look how broken this man is.  His shirt shouts happiness and love, but his face says depression and disappointment.

Link Posted: 1/19/2022 4:29:53 PM EDT
[#26]
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exactly...you don't use leverage to speculate
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mine did too when I cashed it out to buy beanie babies


At least you didn't max out credit cards to buy em like that one couple.  


exactly...you don't use leverage to speculate


But using leverage at rates less than inflation?  Yes please!  MOAR!
Link Posted: 1/19/2022 4:32:47 PM EDT
[#27]
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Look how broken this man is.  His shirt shouts happiness and love, but his face says depression and disappointment.

https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/219476/Screenshot_20220119-142757_YouTube-2246309.jpg
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mine did too when I cashed it out to buy beanie babies


At least you didn't max out credit cards to buy em like that one couple.  


exactly...you don't use leverage to speculate


Look how broken this man is.  His shirt shouts happiness and love, but his face says depression and disappointment.

https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/219476/Screenshot_20220119-142757_YouTube-2246309.jpg



lol
Link Posted: 1/19/2022 4:46:24 PM EDT
[#28]
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That’s why I’m 100% large cap everywhere. I’m the boring turtle. But I like long term boring as it just plugs along…provided I just keep buying every damn week no matter what prices are doing.

It’s a very simple long term strategy, but it works very well. I likely wouldn’t be investing as much as I do (essentially one of our salaries not including tax deferred) but my financial plan calls for it if I want to meet my income goals for when we want to stop working.
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Well, you have to buy something.  Cash is trash.  I just don't think US large cap is going to be the ticket 5-10 years out.  

No predictions on the next few years.  But valuations just don't make sense.  Fundamentals aren't going to matter until the free money spigot turns way down.
Link Posted: 1/19/2022 4:48:39 PM EDT
[#29]
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Can't lose money in your retirement if you don't have a retirement.

https://pyxis.nymag.com/v1/imgs/d6a/dc7/4a5001b7beea096457f480c8808572428b-09-roll-safe.2x.h473.w710.jpg
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My daddy and Joe Biden say that Social Security will always be there for me! I don't need no retirement!
Link Posted: 1/19/2022 4:51:40 PM EDT
[#30]
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Well, you have to buy something.  Cash is trash.  I just don't think US large cap is going to be the ticket 5-10 years out.  

No predictions on the next few years.  But valuations just don't make sense.  Fundamentals aren't going to matter until the free money spigot turns way down.
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That’s why I’m 100% large cap everywhere. I’m the boring turtle. But I like long term boring as it just plugs along…provided I just keep buying every damn week no matter what prices are doing.

It’s a very simple long term strategy, but it works very well. I likely wouldn’t be investing as much as I do (essentially one of our salaries not including tax deferred) but my financial plan calls for it if I want to meet my income goals for when we want to stop working.


Well, you have to buy something.  Cash is trash.  I just don't think US large cap is going to be the ticket 5-10 years out.  

No predictions on the next few years.  But valuations just don't make sense.  Fundamentals aren't going to matter until the free money spigot turns way down.


Even large cap is going to take a significant  hit in a correction. Cash is trash until it is not. You have always had to pay for a cash hedge, but the upside at this point may be worth the speculation.
Link Posted: 1/19/2022 5:07:14 PM EDT
[#31]
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It's just a trend line.  It doesn't predict anything.  It does however mean that a lot of people are paying attention to it and that can reinforce momentum.

Market Psychological Analysis.
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Trend lines, over very short periods, don't mean much.  I stand by my comment.

If you took the trouble to show a trend line, you must think it's relevant.  Yes?
Link Posted: 1/19/2022 5:11:07 PM EDT
[#32]
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Well, you have to buy something.  Cash is trash.  I just don't think US large cap is going to be the ticket 5-10 years out.  

No predictions on the next few years.  But valuations just don't make sense.  Fundamentals aren't going to matter until the free money spigot turns way down.
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That’s why I’m 100% large cap everywhere. I’m the boring turtle. But I like long term boring as it just plugs along…provided I just keep buying every damn week no matter what prices are doing.

It’s a very simple long term strategy, but it works very well. I likely wouldn’t be investing as much as I do (essentially one of our salaries not including tax deferred) but my financial plan calls for it if I want to meet my income goals for when we want to stop working.


Well, you have to buy something.  Cash is trash.  I just don't think US large cap is going to be the ticket 5-10 years out.  

No predictions on the next few years.  But valuations just don't make sense.  Fundamentals aren't going to matter until the free money spigot turns way down.


Kinda agree. But remember that I’m the long term boring turtle. Anything I sell for income I bought 20 years ago.

I hear you on valuations. But folks have been predicting it can’t keep going for at least 5 years. And yet largecap kept going and still is.

As I said earlier, where else you gonna make money long term?  Full disclosure my taxable account is labeled “aggressive large cap growth and value”
Link Posted: 1/19/2022 5:54:28 PM EDT
[#33]
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Kinda agree. But remember that I’m the long term boring turtle. Anything I sell for income I bought 20 years ago.

I hear you on valuations. But folks have been predicting it can’t keep going for at least 5 years. And yet largecap kept going and still is.

As I said earlier, where else you gonna make money long term?  Full disclosure my taxable account is labeled “aggressive large cap growth and value”
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Large cap value is more interesting than large cap growth.  After a decade of outperformance, a growth to value trend change, is likely soon™, imo.  

At certain times, the goal isn't to make money.  It's to preserve what you already have.

I think gold has a better 5-10 year future than the S&P.  I think that's a contrarian view at this point.  

I'm also seeking non-market investments such as land, but that's not for everyone.
Link Posted: 1/19/2022 5:55:51 PM EDT
[#34]
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Large cap value is more interesting than large cap growth.  After a decade of outperformance, a growth to value trend change, is likely soon™, imo.  

At certain times, the goal isn't to make money.  It's to preserve what you already have.

I think gold has a better 5-10 year future than the S&P.  I think that's a contrarian view at this point.  


I'm also seeking non-market investments such as land, but that's not for everyone.
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Why?
Link Posted: 1/19/2022 6:08:50 PM EDT
[#35]
Cashing out and heading to VEGAS!!!!!
Who is coming with me????
Link Posted: 1/19/2022 6:14:05 PM EDT
[#36]
Procter & Gamble doing well,

PG Chart
Link Posted: 1/19/2022 6:57:23 PM EDT
[#37]
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You may want to check out the Cathie Wood funds. Sure, they are down 50% from their ATH in 2021, but she's promising 30-40% annual returns for the next 5 years for all her funds. lol
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She’s smart but she admitted letting the wrong algorithms run for changing market conditions and it about burned her funds to the ground. I’ll watch it but for now, YOLO?
Link Posted: 1/19/2022 7:03:14 PM EDT
[#38]
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Just upped my TSP contribution.

Got 14 years until I hit min retirement eligibility, soooo buy cheap and stack deep.
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This is the way.

I am in a higher tax bracket so I usually have 100% of my contributions in pretax. Just moved some to Roth (can’t really increase b/c I max out, but can buy lower with Roth money).
Link Posted: 1/19/2022 7:06:17 PM EDT
[#39]
We're back to the Obama years, except with more downhill slope on market trends.  I'm evaluating which stocks to prune to establish a buy fund.
Link Posted: 1/19/2022 7:11:56 PM EDT
[#40]
i have 30+ years until i retire. ill let it ride with my higher risk investments in my 401k. only putting more in at a discount then to get more money back. im not worried
Link Posted: 1/19/2022 7:21:22 PM EDT
[#41]
Value investor checking in….. I’m basically flat….
Link Posted: 1/19/2022 10:39:24 PM EDT
[#42]
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Large cap value is more interesting than large cap growth.  After a decade of outperformance, a growth to value trend change, is likely soon™, imo.  

At certain times, the goal isn't to make money.  It's to preserve what you already have.

I think gold has a better 5-10 year future than the S&P.  I think that's a contrarian view at this point.  

I'm also seeking non-market investments such as land, but that's not for everyone.
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Kinda agree. But remember that I’m the long term boring turtle. Anything I sell for income I bought 20 years ago.

I hear you on valuations. But folks have been predicting it can’t keep going for at least 5 years. And yet largecap kept going and still is.

As I said earlier, where else you gonna make money long term?  Full disclosure my taxable account is labeled “aggressive large cap growth and value”


Large cap value is more interesting than large cap growth.  After a decade of outperformance, a growth to value trend change, is likely soon™, imo.  

At certain times, the goal isn't to make money.  It's to preserve what you already have.

I think gold has a better 5-10 year future than the S&P.  I think that's a contrarian view at this point.  

I'm also seeking non-market investments such as land, but that's not for everyone.


I’ll let you know when I switch to more cap preservation stuff which I have zero of.  For now I want growth. That’s part of my long term financial and tax plan.

Tax planning is a bitch.  And inflation is the wealth killer. Oh, and health care expenses and insurance.
Link Posted: 1/19/2022 10:42:20 PM EDT
[#43]
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Not many braggarts these days..
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Link Posted: 1/19/2022 10:55:27 PM EDT
[#44]
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FJB but it’s not even the end of January and the doombirds are crowing about 2022, just like they have done every year I’ve been on this site.

Invest smart, think of the long term, not the daily ups and downs.  Quit listening to doomers.
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Link Posted: 1/19/2022 11:06:29 PM EDT
[#45]
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I'm not lying when I say I'm in only 2 index funds, therefore I don't have to lie about my returns. I'm fixing to make it a single fund as the total international market index I have some in weighs down that one account a bit.

FSKAX is where most my money is.

I did just open a taxable brokerage account which will be in ITOT so I'll still have only two when I dump the one.
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What I find hilarious is over the years here, I have noticed some trends that contradict each other.  


"Just invest in index funds, you cannot outperform the market", followed by pages of people backing this up.

"Look at my returns, which are better than the market", followed by pages of people posting the same. Wait a minute, I thought everyone was tracking the indexes.

"A downturn is right around the corner, I just pulled my money out of the market" or "her the market is down 10% in a week, thank goodness I pulled out two weeks ago", wait a minute I thought you couldn't outperform the market.


Just realize people will either lie or give inaccurate data that shouldn't be taken as gospel. On rarer occasion someone got lucky and that shouldn't be taken as gospel either. Right now there is less chatter because there is more pain, but pay attention to investment threads and you will see some of what I mention.

I'm not lying when I say I'm in only 2 index funds, therefore I don't have to lie about my returns. I'm fixing to make it a single fund as the total international market index I have some in weighs down that one account a bit.

FSKAX is where most my money is.

I did just open a taxable brokerage account which will be in ITOT so I'll still have only two when I dump the one.


@JustinHEMI04

I retire in 15 years and have my money in FXAIX.  I figure if it doesn’t do well in the long run, nothing else will anyway.  I’m also not good at guessing which stocks will do well.
Link Posted: 1/19/2022 11:08:52 PM EDT
[#46]
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Either the 401k will go back up eventually, or money won't matter anyway. Those are really the only two possible outcomes.
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@mjohn3006

Bingo!

And that’s when the ammo fort comes into play.
Link Posted: 1/19/2022 11:09:02 PM EDT
[#47]
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FJB but it’s not even the end of January and the doombirds are crowing about 2022, just like they have done every year I’ve been on this site.

Invest smart, think of the long term, not the daily ups and downs.  Quit listening to doomers.

https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/60489/Lost_Decades_png-2246831.JPG


L. O. Fucking. L.

Now show the chart where if one just kept buying on the regular through that.  

I don’t have to show a chart. I’m living and loving it.

And that chart cuts off at 2016. Wonder why?  That knocks out half the greatest bull run in American history.

Bull is fucking running.
Link Posted: 1/19/2022 11:14:41 PM EDT
[#48]
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Quoted:


@JustinHEMI04

I retire in 15 years and have my money in FXAIX.  I figure if it doesn't do well in the long run, nothing else will anyway.  I'm also not good at guessing which stocks will do well.
View Quote

Yep, I'm all about minimizing expenses and taxes. Might as well own the entire market since I can't beat it.
Link Posted: 1/19/2022 11:19:52 PM EDT
[#49]
We have 7% inflation and interest rates are still near 0%.

Interest rates need to rise to kill the inflation.

In 2018, 3% on the 10 year was enough to nearly send us into another financial crisis. The only reprieve being the Fed cutting rates and the massive QE that followed Covid.

Given the additional debt that is now in the system, I think an even lower rate will be enough to break this speculative orgy based economy. Rates popping to pre corona levels 1.8% on the 10yr have markets already freaking the fuck out.

If the market tanks, can the Fed cut rates and restart QE during a period where inflation is still ripping?

It is looking like the end of the line of 40 years of reckless, disgusting, horrific monetary policy and the chickens are finally coming home to roost.

This is what running out of road to kick the can looks like.

The stock market is currently based on rates steadily declining for perpetuity and the Fed jumping in to ease whenever there's a hiccup.

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Link Posted: 1/19/2022 11:21:33 PM EDT
[#50]
Not sure how many people were investing back during the dot com bust. Or the 08 crash.
I don’t know what’s going to happen, no one does. Personally I sold 50% of my stocks back in December, but it’s my guess.

If the market falls 50%, don’t sell then. If it falls 50%, invest and ride it out.

Best bet for most people is the Vanguard S&P 500 index fund. Increase your savings rate and don’t look at it for the next 5 years.

If you’re 2-3 years from retirement, I would go talk to a pro asap. IMO, I would sell out.

Also it’s a good time to make sure you have 6 months of living expenses saved up. If we hit a recession with FJB in office, you’ll want that.
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