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Quoted: Better than fine, those oil stocks are finally taking a run View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted: Quoted: Everything is fine. https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/200878/D252AC72-4535-473A-B3AA-594617C81E3D_jpe-2246002.JPG Better than fine, those oil stocks are finally taking a run Oh, it’s very good for producers and those invested in energy. It’s not so good for other companies built on a disposable income model. |
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Quoted: Ok, to the ultimate permabull, is there a point where US equities are no longer a good deal? https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FJGBa4YXwAESGcB?format=png&name=900x900 I'm a value guy. I don't see value there. Other than a few rare stocks, I have to leave the US to find any value. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted: Quoted: Which was a great year if you just kept maxing your 401k and keeping 100% us sp500 fund My 401k is like 65k. And I just started it 18 months ago. Ok, to the ultimate permabull, is there a point where US equities are no longer a good deal? https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FJGBa4YXwAESGcB?format=png&name=900x900 I'm a value guy. I don't see value there. Other than a few rare stocks, I have to leave the US to find any value. what if I told you, giant caps receive a large portions of profits from outside the us? |
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Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: I had a review with my wealth manager yeserday. We laughed about how the market was "tanking". I told her I wasn't worried until she called me in a panic. She showed me a couple of articles from smart people she follows that expect the Dow to be 40k+ by year's end. I thought it was supposed to work the opposite way. I thought the client called the wealth manager in a panic, and the wealth manager applied some "behavioral coaching" to talk him down. He's saying he wouldn't worry UNTIL she called him in a panic Not that she did. Wouldn't implies future tense. No, I read it the same way, everything is past tense so it sounds like it happened The grammatically correct sentence should be: I told her I wouldn't worry unless she calls me in a panic. |
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Quoted: So you are retired already or have another 30 years of working? View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted: Quoted: I moved all my retirement accounts out of the. market and into money market accounts. I'll miss out on any potential gains, but my principal is safe(r) Been buying gold and silver also. They are always the last to move, so they are on sale right now. So you are retired already or have another 30 years of working? Probably going to work for the rest of my life. Its simply getting off the tracks when i see a train coming. Age doesnt matter. |
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Quoted: Reminds of the wonder years with the Zero in charge. One up day followed by three down days. Went on for years. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted: Reminds of the wonder years with the Zero in charge. One up day followed by three down days. Went on for years. Quoted:this.... its amazing how stagnant the Market was. toward the end of Obama, it really couldn't take it anymore and had to start making some progress. then magically...when T$ got into office it took off. I was curious on this early posts so I went looking. Memory is funny, as are recoveries from crises. Real S&P numbers beg to differ. It would be terrible if we were stuck with 2008-2016 returns...https://www.macrotrends.net/2614/sp500-performance-by-president-from-election-date P.S. Trump years almost identical to 0's first 4 Attached File |
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Quoted: what if I told you, giant caps receive a large portions of profits from outside the us? View Quote What if I told you, I saw your reply coming before you even typed it. Some people assume that this increase in market capitalization to GDP is just because companies are selling more products like iPhones abroad. However, the opposite is true; US companies have a slightly lower percentage of their revenue coming from outside the US today when the market capitalization is 200% of GDP, than they did ten years ago when the market capitalization was 90% of GDP. So, it’s not as though the US market simply became more global during that time. Instead, the increase in stock prices are primarily due to higher domestic corporate earnings and especially from higher valuations on those earnings, rather than international expansion. --Lyn Alden She's the smartest person in the room. Case for US stock reversal: 1) US has low interest rates. They can't get any lower. They can go a lot higher. 2) US has had extremely low corporate tax rates. More likely to go up than down. 3) US households now have record high allocations to equities. 4) Literally everyone and their sister is investing their money in VTI/S&P500 fund. It's become a large cap momentum strategy. |
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Quoted: Oh, it’s very good for producers and those invested in energy. It’s not so good for other companies built on a disposable income model. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: Everything is fine. https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/200878/D252AC72-4535-473A-B3AA-594617C81E3D_jpe-2246002.JPG Better than fine, those oil stocks are finally taking a run Oh, it’s very good for producers and those invested in energy. It’s not so good for other companies built on a disposable income model. Attached File Not great for most Americans, or most companies. I even worry about oil companies, since they can be taxed into oblivion. For now it's going well. |
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Quoted: Its an election year. It will go UUUUPPPP to make the voters happy...even if they have to dump money blindly into the economy. There will be stimulus and both parties will try to out do one another on vote buying. This would be a good time to open a store selling TVs, Rims, and fake handbags. View Quote I disagree. The party out of power (in this case the GOP) has a vested interest in some market pain. It will make them look better going into the midterms, and 2024. The Ds tried to keep the stimulus soup bubbling, but Manchin put the crimp on that. This is not a prediction of where the market will go this year, it's just a disagreement about your premise. The market has been on a tear for years. "Trees don't grow to the sky." There is no question the market will correct and return to the mean. Anybody tells you they know for sure when that will happen, you better run away. This is one of those cases when diversity truly is your friend. |
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Quoted: Might go a bit further down. Meh. https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/296533/Screenshot_20220119-224908_MetaTrader_4_-2246242.JPG View Quote That's a very short time frame on that graph. Basically irrelevant wrt predicting big market movements. |
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I have no 401k, but my regular account is a tad aggressive (too much small cap growth), so it's been rough for the last 6 weeks or so.
this too shall pass. |
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Just upped my TSP contribution.
Got 14 years until I hit min retirement eligibility, soooo buy cheap and stack deep. |
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Quoted: Your wealth manager called you in a panic after looking at some articles? I thought it was supposed to work the opposite way. I thought the client called the wealth manager in a panic, and the wealth manager applied some "behavioral coaching" to talk him down. View Quote No, we were just doing a review of last year and planning for this year. She mentioned the market being down again and I confessed that I never look b/c I'm a long term guy. I wouldn't of a true crash unless she called telling me had to *insert some grand plan to limit the damage*. Coincidentally she showed me a chart that I found interesting...in 16 of the past 30 years, the Dow was down 10%+ at some point during that year. The other years it was down at least 5% at some point. People losing their minds over 2% (especially when the current volitility means it will likely be back up that much tomorrow) is funny to me. |
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Quoted: I have no 401k, but my regular account is a tad aggressive (too much small cap growth), so it's been rough for the last 6 weeks or so. this too shall pass. View Quote The Russell 2000 hasn't played along for the last year. Not one bit. Inflation is rampant, and it's down 2% YOY. Almost as bad as my silver trade. |
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Quoted: The Russell 2000 hasn't played along for the last year. Not one bit. Inflation is rampant, and it's down 2% YOY. Almost as bad as my silver trade. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted: Quoted: I have no 401k, but my regular account is a tad aggressive (too much small cap growth), so it's been rough for the last 6 weeks or so. this too shall pass. The Russell 2000 hasn't played along for the last year. Not one bit. Inflation is rampant, and it's down 2% YOY. Almost as bad as my silver trade. That’s why I’m 100% large cap everywhere. I’m the boring turtle. But I like long term boring as it just plugs along…provided I just keep buying every damn week no matter what prices are doing. It’s a very simple long term strategy, but it works very well. I likely wouldn’t be investing as much as I do (essentially one of our salaries not including tax deferred) but my financial plan calls for it if I want to meet my income goals for when we want to stop working. |
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I've never seen so many sheep in an investment thread. JFC, some of you are your own worst enemy.
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Quoted: That's a very short time frame on that graph. Basically irrelevant wrt predicting big market movements. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted: Quoted: Might go a bit further down. Meh. https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/296533/Screenshot_20220119-224908_MetaTrader_4_-2246242.JPG That's a very short time frame on that graph. Basically irrelevant wrt predicting big market movements. Market Psychological Analysis. |
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Quoted: At least you didn't max out credit cards to buy em like that one couple. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted: Quoted: mine did too when I cashed it out to buy beanie babies At least you didn't max out credit cards to buy em like that one couple. exactly...you don't use leverage to speculate |
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Quoted: exactly...you don't use leverage to speculate View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: mine did too when I cashed it out to buy beanie babies At least you didn't max out credit cards to buy em like that one couple. exactly...you don't use leverage to speculate But using leverage at rates less than inflation? Yes please! MOAR! |
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Quoted: Look how broken this man is. His shirt shouts happiness and love, but his face says depression and disappointment. https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/219476/Screenshot_20220119-142757_YouTube-2246309.jpg View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: mine did too when I cashed it out to buy beanie babies At least you didn't max out credit cards to buy em like that one couple. exactly...you don't use leverage to speculate Look how broken this man is. His shirt shouts happiness and love, but his face says depression and disappointment. https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/219476/Screenshot_20220119-142757_YouTube-2246309.jpg lol |
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Quoted: That’s why I’m 100% large cap everywhere. I’m the boring turtle. But I like long term boring as it just plugs along…provided I just keep buying every damn week no matter what prices are doing. It’s a very simple long term strategy, but it works very well. I likely wouldn’t be investing as much as I do (essentially one of our salaries not including tax deferred) but my financial plan calls for it if I want to meet my income goals for when we want to stop working. View Quote Well, you have to buy something. Cash is trash. I just don't think US large cap is going to be the ticket 5-10 years out. No predictions on the next few years. But valuations just don't make sense. Fundamentals aren't going to matter until the free money spigot turns way down. |
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Quoted: Can't lose money in your retirement if you don't have a retirement. https://pyxis.nymag.com/v1/imgs/d6a/dc7/4a5001b7beea096457f480c8808572428b-09-roll-safe.2x.h473.w710.jpg View Quote My daddy and Joe Biden say that Social Security will always be there for me! I don't need no retirement! |
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Quoted: Well, you have to buy something. Cash is trash. I just don't think US large cap is going to be the ticket 5-10 years out. No predictions on the next few years. But valuations just don't make sense. Fundamentals aren't going to matter until the free money spigot turns way down. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted: Quoted: That’s why I’m 100% large cap everywhere. I’m the boring turtle. But I like long term boring as it just plugs along…provided I just keep buying every damn week no matter what prices are doing. It’s a very simple long term strategy, but it works very well. I likely wouldn’t be investing as much as I do (essentially one of our salaries not including tax deferred) but my financial plan calls for it if I want to meet my income goals for when we want to stop working. Well, you have to buy something. Cash is trash. I just don't think US large cap is going to be the ticket 5-10 years out. No predictions on the next few years. But valuations just don't make sense. Fundamentals aren't going to matter until the free money spigot turns way down. Even large cap is going to take a significant hit in a correction. Cash is trash until it is not. You have always had to pay for a cash hedge, but the upside at this point may be worth the speculation. |
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Quoted: It's just a trend line. It doesn't predict anything. It does however mean that a lot of people are paying attention to it and that can reinforce momentum. Market Psychological Analysis. View Quote Trend lines, over very short periods, don't mean much. I stand by my comment. If you took the trouble to show a trend line, you must think it's relevant. Yes? |
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Quoted: Well, you have to buy something. Cash is trash. I just don't think US large cap is going to be the ticket 5-10 years out. No predictions on the next few years. But valuations just don't make sense. Fundamentals aren't going to matter until the free money spigot turns way down. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted: Quoted: That’s why I’m 100% large cap everywhere. I’m the boring turtle. But I like long term boring as it just plugs along…provided I just keep buying every damn week no matter what prices are doing. It’s a very simple long term strategy, but it works very well. I likely wouldn’t be investing as much as I do (essentially one of our salaries not including tax deferred) but my financial plan calls for it if I want to meet my income goals for when we want to stop working. Well, you have to buy something. Cash is trash. I just don't think US large cap is going to be the ticket 5-10 years out. No predictions on the next few years. But valuations just don't make sense. Fundamentals aren't going to matter until the free money spigot turns way down. Kinda agree. But remember that I’m the long term boring turtle. Anything I sell for income I bought 20 years ago. I hear you on valuations. But folks have been predicting it can’t keep going for at least 5 years. And yet largecap kept going and still is. As I said earlier, where else you gonna make money long term? Full disclosure my taxable account is labeled “aggressive large cap growth and value” |
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Quoted: Kinda agree. But remember that I’m the long term boring turtle. Anything I sell for income I bought 20 years ago. I hear you on valuations. But folks have been predicting it can’t keep going for at least 5 years. And yet largecap kept going and still is. As I said earlier, where else you gonna make money long term? Full disclosure my taxable account is labeled “aggressive large cap growth and value” View Quote Large cap value is more interesting than large cap growth. After a decade of outperformance, a growth to value trend change, is likely soon™, imo. At certain times, the goal isn't to make money. It's to preserve what you already have. I think gold has a better 5-10 year future than the S&P. I think that's a contrarian view at this point. I'm also seeking non-market investments such as land, but that's not for everyone. |
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Quoted: Large cap value is more interesting than large cap growth. After a decade of outperformance, a growth to value trend change, is likely soon™, imo. At certain times, the goal isn't to make money. It's to preserve what you already have. I think gold has a better 5-10 year future than the S&P. I think that's a contrarian view at this point. I'm also seeking non-market investments such as land, but that's not for everyone. View Quote Why? |
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Cashing out and heading to VEGAS!!!!!
Who is coming with me???? |
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Quoted: You may want to check out the Cathie Wood funds. Sure, they are down 50% from their ATH in 2021, but she's promising 30-40% annual returns for the next 5 years for all her funds. lol View Quote She’s smart but she admitted letting the wrong algorithms run for changing market conditions and it about burned her funds to the ground. I’ll watch it but for now, YOLO? |
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Quoted: Just upped my TSP contribution. Got 14 years until I hit min retirement eligibility, soooo buy cheap and stack deep. View Quote This is the way. I am in a higher tax bracket so I usually have 100% of my contributions in pretax. Just moved some to Roth (can’t really increase b/c I max out, but can buy lower with Roth money). |
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We're back to the Obama years, except with more downhill slope on market trends. I'm evaluating which stocks to prune to establish a buy fund.
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i have 30+ years until i retire. ill let it ride with my higher risk investments in my 401k. only putting more in at a discount then to get more money back. im not worried
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Quoted: Large cap value is more interesting than large cap growth. After a decade of outperformance, a growth to value trend change, is likely soon™, imo. At certain times, the goal isn't to make money. It's to preserve what you already have. I think gold has a better 5-10 year future than the S&P. I think that's a contrarian view at this point. I'm also seeking non-market investments such as land, but that's not for everyone. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted: Quoted: Kinda agree. But remember that I’m the long term boring turtle. Anything I sell for income I bought 20 years ago. I hear you on valuations. But folks have been predicting it can’t keep going for at least 5 years. And yet largecap kept going and still is. As I said earlier, where else you gonna make money long term? Full disclosure my taxable account is labeled “aggressive large cap growth and value” Large cap value is more interesting than large cap growth. After a decade of outperformance, a growth to value trend change, is likely soon™, imo. At certain times, the goal isn't to make money. It's to preserve what you already have. I think gold has a better 5-10 year future than the S&P. I think that's a contrarian view at this point. I'm also seeking non-market investments such as land, but that's not for everyone. I’ll let you know when I switch to more cap preservation stuff which I have zero of. For now I want growth. That’s part of my long term financial and tax plan. Tax planning is a bitch. And inflation is the wealth killer. Oh, and health care expenses and insurance. |
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Quoted: FJB but it’s not even the end of January and the doombirds are crowing about 2022, just like they have done every year I’ve been on this site. Invest smart, think of the long term, not the daily ups and downs. Quit listening to doomers. View Quote Attached File |
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Quoted: I'm not lying when I say I'm in only 2 index funds, therefore I don't have to lie about my returns. I'm fixing to make it a single fund as the total international market index I have some in weighs down that one account a bit. FSKAX is where most my money is. I did just open a taxable brokerage account which will be in ITOT so I'll still have only two when I dump the one. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted: Quoted: What I find hilarious is over the years here, I have noticed some trends that contradict each other. "Just invest in index funds, you cannot outperform the market", followed by pages of people backing this up. "Look at my returns, which are better than the market", followed by pages of people posting the same. Wait a minute, I thought everyone was tracking the indexes. "A downturn is right around the corner, I just pulled my money out of the market" or "her the market is down 10% in a week, thank goodness I pulled out two weeks ago", wait a minute I thought you couldn't outperform the market. Just realize people will either lie or give inaccurate data that shouldn't be taken as gospel. On rarer occasion someone got lucky and that shouldn't be taken as gospel either. Right now there is less chatter because there is more pain, but pay attention to investment threads and you will see some of what I mention. I'm not lying when I say I'm in only 2 index funds, therefore I don't have to lie about my returns. I'm fixing to make it a single fund as the total international market index I have some in weighs down that one account a bit. FSKAX is where most my money is. I did just open a taxable brokerage account which will be in ITOT so I'll still have only two when I dump the one. @JustinHEMI04 I retire in 15 years and have my money in FXAIX. I figure if it doesn’t do well in the long run, nothing else will anyway. I’m also not good at guessing which stocks will do well. |
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View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted: Quoted: FJB but it’s not even the end of January and the doombirds are crowing about 2022, just like they have done every year I’ve been on this site. Invest smart, think of the long term, not the daily ups and downs. Quit listening to doomers. https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/60489/Lost_Decades_png-2246831.JPG L. O. Fucking. L. Now show the chart where if one just kept buying on the regular through that. I don’t have to show a chart. I’m living and loving it. And that chart cuts off at 2016. Wonder why? That knocks out half the greatest bull run in American history. Bull is fucking running. |
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Quoted: @JustinHEMI04 I retire in 15 years and have my money in FXAIX. I figure if it doesn't do well in the long run, nothing else will anyway. I'm also not good at guessing which stocks will do well. View Quote Yep, I'm all about minimizing expenses and taxes. Might as well own the entire market since I can't beat it. |
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We have 7% inflation and interest rates are still near 0%.
Interest rates need to rise to kill the inflation. In 2018, 3% on the 10 year was enough to nearly send us into another financial crisis. The only reprieve being the Fed cutting rates and the massive QE that followed Covid. Given the additional debt that is now in the system, I think an even lower rate will be enough to break this speculative orgy based economy. Rates popping to pre corona levels 1.8% on the 10yr have markets already freaking the fuck out. If the market tanks, can the Fed cut rates and restart QE during a period where inflation is still ripping? It is looking like the end of the line of 40 years of reckless, disgusting, horrific monetary policy and the chickens are finally coming home to roost. This is what running out of road to kick the can looks like. The stock market is currently based on rates steadily declining for perpetuity and the Fed jumping in to ease whenever there's a hiccup. Attached File |
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Not sure how many people were investing back during the dot com bust. Or the 08 crash.
I don’t know what’s going to happen, no one does. Personally I sold 50% of my stocks back in December, but it’s my guess. If the market falls 50%, don’t sell then. If it falls 50%, invest and ride it out. Best bet for most people is the Vanguard S&P 500 index fund. Increase your savings rate and don’t look at it for the next 5 years. If you’re 2-3 years from retirement, I would go talk to a pro asap. IMO, I would sell out. Also it’s a good time to make sure you have 6 months of living expenses saved up. If we hit a recession with FJB in office, you’ll want that. |
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