Warning

 

Close

Confirm Action

Are you sure you wish to do this?

Confirm Cancel
BCM
User Panel

Site Notices
OFFICIAL Russo-Ukrainian War (Page 2301 of 5582)
Page / 5582
You Must Be Logged In To Vote

Link Posted: 8/16/2022 12:14:05 AM EDT
[Last Edit: Jack67] [#1]
Originally Posted By Lieh-tzu:

What exactly is "mass filtration"? What is done? What happens?

...
View Quote


Basically, it's kidnapping. With a side dish of torture and murder.

- They round up ethnic Ukrainians and remove them.  
- bring in Russians to re-populate the area
- Ukrainians are taken to "filtering centers" - concentration camps - for processing
- They are then "filtered" by their ideological orientation
- Those who "pass" get moved to distant areas of Russia to re-populate them, like Siberia
- Those who don't pass tend to disapear. Liquidated, imprisoned - not clear.

As of a month ago State estimated 1 to 1.5 million had been "filtered."

It's horrific.  It's straight out of the worst of the Russian and German war-crime histories.

https://www.state.gov/russias-filtration-operations-forced-disappearances-and-mass-deportations-of-ukrainian-citizens/
Link Posted: 8/16/2022 12:22:46 AM EDT
[Last Edit: Prime] [#2]
Crimea, "bavovna"! The moment of the explosion was filmed by eyewitnesses:fire: It is reported that another ammunition depot of the Russian Federation in the village of Azovskoye of the Dzhankoy district is detonating.

https://t.me/truexanewsua/57185













MOSCOW, Aug 16 - RIA Novosti. The fire at the fenced ammunition storage site with detonation occurred in the Mayskoye area in the Crimea, there are no serious injuries, according to the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation.

"On August 16, at about 6.15 Moscow time in the vicinity of the village of Mayskoye (Dzhankoy district), a fire broke out on the territory of the collapsed temporary storage site for ammunition of one of the military units. As a result of the fire, the stored ammunition detonated," the report said.

According to the report from the scene of the incident at the moment, no seriously injured persons have been identified, measures are being taken to extinguish the fire and find out the causes of the fire, the department added.


https://ria.ru/20220816/vozgoranie-1809897272.html
Link Posted: 8/16/2022 12:23:36 AM EDT
[#3]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By Dracster:
Serbia abandoned the Russian Federation military base and will train the army according to NATO standards

It is reported that after the Russian ambassador announced Russia's plans to deploy a military base in Serbia, Belgrade intensified cooperation with NATO.

Thus, the "South" base   the main center for training of the Serbian army according to NATO standards, as well as training of Serbian special units for peacekeeping operations   will appear in Serbia instead of the Russian one.

https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/48680/photo_2022-08-15_13-08-13_jpg-2490391.JPG
View Quote


Admiral Ackbar - "It's A Trap!"
Link Posted: 8/16/2022 12:25:21 AM EDT
[#4]
"If they don't believe us, maybe they'll believe a Chinese columnist"

In China, they told what Russia will do if NATO attacks the Crimea

MOSCOW, Aug. 16 — RIA Novosti. If NATO launches a military aggression against Crimea, Russia will respond by launching a missile strike on London. Said a columnist for the Chinese portal Sina.

https://ria.ru/20220816/udar-1809877875.html
Link Posted: 8/16/2022 12:30:29 AM EDT
[#5]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By sentionaut:

Balls to the wall. Hit that fuckin gas
View Quote View All Quotes
View All Quotes
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By sentionaut:
Originally Posted By governmentman:
Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
Like a clown car, but it explodes.



Love the two existing wrecks at the edge of the minefield before the latest moron drives right in.

Balls to the wall. Hit that fuckin gas

What’s the worst that could happen?
Link Posted: 8/16/2022 12:42:13 AM EDT
[#6]




Link Posted: 8/16/2022 1:03:12 AM EDT
[Last Edit: Capta] [#7]
Link Posted: 8/16/2022 1:12:37 AM EDT
[#8]


Link Posted: 8/16/2022 1:19:54 AM EDT
[#9]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By vahog:



Okay. I'll go with that. We're not going to get a Ukrainian victory parade into Red Square, though.

Maybe we can find a Romanov and seal him in a train.
View Quote View All Quotes
View All Quotes
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By vahog:
Originally Posted By Jack67:


Good point. No, I no longer buy it.

As a political excuse - it sounds good. But in fact, no.  I no longer buy it.  The % of GDP the payments represented was not an undue burden.  Also, the Dawes plan of 1924 restructured the debt payments into an insignificant burden.  The financial mismanagement of the Weimar politicians was real, but the reparations were not the economic cause.  The German economy was already completely shattered from the war and sanctions/embargo.  That was the real cause.  Economists and cliometricians who have dug into the numbers and finance have shown this pretty convincingly.  I bought the myth when I was younger until I studied some real scholarship on it.

The "dolchstosslegende" ("stab-in-the-back") mythology was the cause.  The ultimate root of that problem was not letting the Germans know they were beaten - e.g., having an Allied victory parade down the Kurfurstendamm in Berlin.  Foch of France and Pershing of the US were the only war-leaders who saw this problem coming and argued the armistice needed proof they lost on the field.  Political leaders and many other military leaders were not far-sighted enough and left the germ of the problem to fester and grow.

This is one of the reasons I *pray* the west backs Ukraine to the max and breaks the Putin/FSB oligarchy.  If they break it, something healthy *might* grow out of it instead of leaving the same dysfunction in place and the roots of a new "stab-in-the-back" myth that festers.



Okay. I'll go with that. We're not going to get a Ukrainian victory parade into Red Square, though.

Maybe we can find a Romanov and seal him in a train.


I was in NROTC with a "White Russian" born and raised in the US.  But his oldest family members had been quite high up in the Imperial military and society and he said the old folks still looked to a restoration.  Like early on some of the Iranians hoped the Shah or his family could get back to power.  Besides, who needs a Romanoff if you have Windsors.
Link Posted: 8/16/2022 1:22:03 AM EDT
[#10]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By Prime:
Kinda want this to not be conspiratorial nonsense.

The Foreign Ministry reported on the Afghan special forces who joined the Nazis in Ukraine

MOSCOW, Aug. 16 — RIA Novosti. Some former Afghan special forces joined Nazi groups in Ukraine, said in an interview with RIA Novosti special representative of the President of Russia for Afghanistan, Director of the Second Department of Asia of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs Zamir Kabulov.
At the end of March, an informed source told RIA Novosti that the American side is preparing to send to the combat zone on Ukraine former members of the Afghan National Army.

https://ria.ru/20220816/svo-1809881197.html
View Quote


Afghans will fight for the Americans against the Russians?  Sore loser losers?
Link Posted: 8/16/2022 3:37:21 AM EDT
[Last Edit: bigstick61] [#11]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By Featureless:


I was in NROTC with a "White Russian" born and raised in the US.  But his oldest family members had been quite high up in the Imperial military and society and he said the old folks still looked to a restoration.  Like early on some of the Iranians hoped the Shah or his family could get back to power.  Besides, who needs a Romanoff if you have Windsors.
View Quote View All Quotes
View All Quotes
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By Featureless:
Originally Posted By vahog:
Originally Posted By Jack67:


Good point. No, I no longer buy it.

As a political excuse - it sounds good. But in fact, no.  I no longer buy it.  The % of GDP the payments represented was not an undue burden.  Also, the Dawes plan of 1924 restructured the debt payments into an insignificant burden.  The financial mismanagement of the Weimar politicians was real, but the reparations were not the economic cause.  The German economy was already completely shattered from the war and sanctions/embargo.  That was the real cause.  Economists and cliometricians who have dug into the numbers and finance have shown this pretty convincingly.  I bought the myth when I was younger until I studied some real scholarship on it.

The "dolchstosslegende" ("stab-in-the-back") mythology was the cause.  The ultimate root of that problem was not letting the Germans know they were beaten - e.g., having an Allied victory parade down the Kurfurstendamm in Berlin.  Foch of France and Pershing of the US were the only war-leaders who saw this problem coming and argued the armistice needed proof they lost on the field.  Political leaders and many other military leaders were not far-sighted enough and left the germ of the problem to fester and grow.

This is one of the reasons I *pray* the west backs Ukraine to the max and breaks the Putin/FSB oligarchy.  If they break it, something healthy *might* grow out of it instead of leaving the same dysfunction in place and the roots of a new "stab-in-the-back" myth that festers.



Okay. I'll go with that. We're not going to get a Ukrainian victory parade into Red Square, though.

Maybe we can find a Romanov and seal him in a train.


I was in NROTC with a "White Russian" born and raised in the US.  But his oldest family members had been quite high up in the Imperial military and society and he said the old folks still looked to a restoration.  Like early on some of the Iranians hoped the Shah or his family could get back to power.  Besides, who needs a Romanoff if you have Windsors.


Some of those guys kept fighting for Rightist causes (or at least anti-communist ones) around the world for decades after the revolution, including the Spanish Civil War, even after WWII, IIRC.
Link Posted: 8/16/2022 3:49:12 AM EDT
[#12]
[ Kharkiv Front ] Russian forces captured Odnorobivka (West of Hur'iv Kozachok)
Link Posted: 8/16/2022 4:00:45 AM EDT
[#13]
Squeezing their ethnic minorities harder.

Link Posted: 8/16/2022 4:08:59 AM EDT
[Last Edit: Prime] [#14]
Video of latest fire safety violation.
https://t.me/mash_na_volne/1861



The head of the Mejlis of the Crimean Tatar people, Refat Chubarov, reports that the hit was on the military unit of the orcs in the village of Azov
Details: This is very close to Mayskoe, where, according to the occupying authorities of Crimea, a fire broke out.

https://t.me/Pravda_Gerashchenko/37260



Ukraine war: Explosions rock Russian base in Ukraine's Crimea



A transformer station burning near Dzhankoy could be used to supply electricity from ZNPP to Crimea
The transformer station near Dzhankoy, where the fire broke out on Tuesday, could be used to supply electricity from the Zaporizhzhia AES to Crimea, adviser to the head of the Office of the President of Ukraine Mykhailo Podolyak said on a telethon on Tuesday.

"What is a transformer station? In order to steal the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, in order to throw electricity to the Crimea through Dzhankoy. I think it's a karmic reckoning. What is stolen does not bring abundance," he said.

Speaking about the explosion at the ammunition depot there, Podolyak noted that , "based on the level of intelligence of the Russian army, the number of such excesses will increase, and it is in the Crimea."

https://interfax.com.ua/news/general/852509.html




https://t.me/rian_ru/174575
The Russian Ministry of Defense on explosions near Dzhankoy: "On the morning of August 16, as a result of sabotage, a military warehouse near the village of Dzhankoy was damaged" There are no serious injuries. Necessary measures are being taken to eliminate the consequences of sabotage."


Link Posted: 8/16/2022 4:09:19 AM EDT
[Last Edit: Prime] [#15]


Link Posted: 8/16/2022 4:09:40 AM EDT
[Last Edit: Prime] [#16]
The boys are hitting the enemy "Solntsepek" from "Stugna" and preparing food
This is how everyday life of real Ukrainian Heroes looks like! There is no time to be distracted by unnecessary and extraneous things.

https://t.me/Pravda_Gerashchenko/37270



Zemfira Suleymanova, a military commander from Limonov's party, died in the DPR. The girl was blown up by a mine along with her driver.
Zemfira was in Donetsk as a volunteer and journalist.


https://t.me/groupzarya/16948




Link Posted: 8/16/2022 6:13:46 AM EDT
[#17]
Link Posted: 8/16/2022 6:55:58 AM EDT
[#18]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By Prime:
Video of latest fire safety violation.
https://t.me/mash_na_volne/1861



The head of the Mejlis of the Crimean Tatar people, Refat Chubarov, reports that the hit was on the military unit of the orcs in the village of Azov
Details: This is very close to Mayskoe, where, according to the occupying authorities of Crimea, a fire broke out.

https://t.me/Pravda_Gerashchenko/37260



Ukraine war: Explosions rock Russian base in Ukraine's Crimea



A transformer station burning near Dzhankoy could be used to supply electricity from ZNPP to Crimea
The transformer station near Dzhankoy, where the fire broke out on Tuesday, could be used to supply electricity from the Zaporizhzhia AES to Crimea, adviser to the head of the Office of the President of Ukraine Mykhailo Podolyak said on a telethon on Tuesday.

"What is a transformer station? In order to steal the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, in order to throw electricity to the Crimea through Dzhankoy. I think it's a karmic reckoning. What is stolen does not bring abundance," he said.

Speaking about the explosion at the ammunition depot there, Podolyak noted that , "based on the level of intelligence of the Russian army, the number of such excesses will increase, and it is in the Crimea."

https://interfax.com.ua/news/general/852509.html




https://t.me/rian_ru/174575
The Russian Ministry of Defense on explosions near Dzhankoy: "On the morning of August 16, as a result of sabotage, a military warehouse near the village of Dzhankoy was damaged" There are no serious injuries. Necessary measures are being taken to eliminate the consequences of sabotage."


View Quote




That looks like a huge ammo depot going up.  One would think that the Orcs would have learned by now that it is a bad idea to have huge piles of ammo stored in one place.


At some point, all this ammo going poof has got to make a difference in what they can do on the front lines.



Link Posted: 8/16/2022 7:47:07 AM EDT
[#19]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By Birddog15:




That looks like a huge ammo depot going up.  One would think that the Orcs would have learned by now that it is a bad idea to have huge piles of ammo stored in one place.


At some point, all this ammo going poof has got to make a difference in what they can do on the front lines.



View Quote


I think it is already making a big difference. If we go back to June and use that "hot spot" tracker, Russia had an enormous advantage in artillery. They were firing far more rounds than Ukraine. That started to shift in July. Now (and for the past 2-3 weeks), Ukraine has had fire superiority over Russia in artillery.
Link Posted: 8/16/2022 8:16:11 AM EDT
[#20]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By Ryan_Ruck:

His best work was on MAD TV.
View Quote View All Quotes
View All Quotes
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By Ryan_Ruck:
Originally Posted By AROKIE:
Originally Posted By acrocat:
According to Steven Seagal, Zelensky used HIMARS on the prison to silence a Nazi who knew too much.

https://www.militarytimes.com/off-duty/military-culture/2022/08/09/steven-seagal-appears-in-ukraine-serving-as-a-russian-spokesperson/


Seagal is fucking Trash. I used to think he was an American patriot years ago..what a pile of pig shit, all for money. Sold his soul..fuck him I hope he doesn't come back

His best work was on MAD TV.


Iunderstoodthatreference.gif
Link Posted: 8/16/2022 8:57:48 AM EDT
[#21]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By Charging_Handle:


I think it is already making a big difference. If we go back to June and use that "hot spot" tracker, Russia had an enormous advantage in artillery. They were firing far more rounds than Ukraine. That started to shift in July. Now (and for the past 2-3 weeks), Ukraine has had fire superiority over Russia in artillery.
View Quote View All Quotes
View All Quotes
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By Charging_Handle:
Originally Posted By Birddog15:




That looks like a huge ammo depot going up.  One would think that the Orcs would have learned by now that it is a bad idea to have huge piles of ammo stored in one place.


At some point, all this ammo going poof has got to make a difference in what they can do on the front lines.





I think it is already making a big difference. If we go back to June and use that "hot spot" tracker, Russia had an enormous advantage in artillery. They were firing far more rounds than Ukraine. That started to shift in July. Now (and for the past 2-3 weeks), Ukraine has had fire superiority over Russia in artillery.


You have a source on that? First I've heard that Ukraine has been able to out do Russia with artillery
Link Posted: 8/16/2022 9:07:27 AM EDT
[#22]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
The last guy might have lost his eye
Link Posted: 8/16/2022 9:18:21 AM EDT
[#23]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By bigstick61:


Some of those guys kept fighting for Rightist causes (or at least anti-communist ones) around the world for decades after the revolution, including the Spanish Civil War, even after WWII, IIRC.
View Quote View All Quotes
View All Quotes
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By bigstick61:
Originally Posted By Featureless:
Originally Posted By vahog:
Originally Posted By Jack67:


Good point. No, I no longer buy it.

As a political excuse - it sounds good. But in fact, no.  I no longer buy it.  The % of GDP the payments represented was not an undue burden.  Also, the Dawes plan of 1924 restructured the debt payments into an insignificant burden.  The financial mismanagement of the Weimar politicians was real, but the reparations were not the economic cause.  The German economy was already completely shattered from the war and sanctions/embargo.  That was the real cause.  Economists and cliometricians who have dug into the numbers and finance have shown this pretty convincingly.  I bought the myth when I was younger until I studied some real scholarship on it.

The "dolchstosslegende" ("stab-in-the-back") mythology was the cause.  The ultimate root of that problem was not letting the Germans know they were beaten - e.g., having an Allied victory parade down the Kurfurstendamm in Berlin.  Foch of France and Pershing of the US were the only war-leaders who saw this problem coming and argued the armistice needed proof they lost on the field.  Political leaders and many other military leaders were not far-sighted enough and left the germ of the problem to fester and grow.

This is one of the reasons I *pray* the west backs Ukraine to the max and breaks the Putin/FSB oligarchy.  If they break it, something healthy *might* grow out of it instead of leaving the same dysfunction in place and the roots of a new "stab-in-the-back" myth that festers.



Okay. I'll go with that. We're not going to get a Ukrainian victory parade into Red Square, though.

Maybe we can find a Romanov and seal him in a train.


I was in NROTC with a "White Russian" born and raised in the US.  But his oldest family members had been quite high up in the Imperial military and society and he said the old folks still looked to a restoration.  Like early on some of the Iranians hoped the Shah or his family could get back to power.  Besides, who needs a Romanoff if you have Windsors.


Some of those guys kept fighting for Rightist causes (or at least anti-communist ones) around the world for decades after the revolution, including the Spanish Civil War, even after WWII, IIRC.


A lot of them got caught up in Operation Keelhaul and were sent to their deaths in Russia along with their families.
Link Posted: 8/16/2022 9:18:50 AM EDT
[Last Edit: Dominion21] [#24]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By Charging_Handle:


I think it is already making a big difference. If we go back to June and use that "hot spot" tracker, Russia had an enormous advantage in artillery. They were firing far more rounds than Ukraine. That started to shift in July. Now (and for the past 2-3 weeks), Ukraine has had fire superiority over Russia in artillery.
View Quote View All Quotes
View All Quotes
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By Charging_Handle:
Originally Posted By Birddog15:




That looks like a huge ammo depot going up.  One would think that the Orcs would have learned by now that it is a bad idea to have huge piles of ammo stored in one place.


At some point, all this ammo going poof has got to make a difference in what they can do on the front lines.





I think it is already making a big difference. If we go back to June and use that "hot spot" tracker, Russia had an enormous advantage in artillery. They were firing far more rounds than Ukraine. That started to shift in July. Now (and for the past 2-3 weeks), Ukraine has had fire superiority over Russia in artillery.


10 Russian artillery rounds for 1 outgoing Ukrainian round.  That was what I remember from 2 months ago - especially in the East.  Things have changedz


The “hot spots” or fires maps posted daily in this thread have reversed themselves in the south.  Most of the strikes today are on the Russian side of the frontline in the south.

Also, the Russians seemed to use a tactic of indiscriminate mass shelling of vast civilian areas to first depopulate them, then send in their scared, untrained, unwilling conscripts to claim they now hold a destroyed village.  They seem to want to destroy infrastructure.

The Ukrainians clearly prefer precision strikes where possible.  We need to keep up a constant flow of 155mm munitions to Ukraine, and soon consider replacing some of those tubes , which must be nearing the end of their service life.

Maybe set up a joint NATO service depot on the border just inside Poland?
Link Posted: 8/16/2022 9:29:01 AM EDT
[#25]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By AROKIE:


You have a source on that? First I've heard that Ukraine has been able to out do Russia with artillery
View Quote



First you have heard?  You obviously don't read every post in this thread. Look at the "fires" map for EVERY DAY.

This is truly the definitive place to receive news of the war in Ukraine. You won't find information like this anywhere else in the world.
Link Posted: 8/16/2022 9:29:42 AM EDT
[Last Edit: AlmightyTallest] [#26]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By Prime:
Video of latest fire safety violation.
https://t.me/mash_na_volne/1861

View Quote





Yea, I can't wait for the satellite imagery to come in this afternoon, I'll post it up then.
Link Posted: 8/16/2022 9:33:49 AM EDT
[#27]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By Dominion21:


10 Russian artillery rounds for 1 outgoing Ukrainian round.  That was what I remember from 2 months ago - especially in the East.  Things have changedz


The “hot spots” or fires maps posted daily in this thread have reversed themselves in the south.  Most of the strikes today are on the Russian side of the frontline in the south.

Also, the Russians seemed to use a tactic of indiscriminate mass shelling of vast civilian areas to first depopulate them, then send in their scared, untrained, unwilling conscripts to claim they now hold a destroyed village.  They seem to want to destroy infrastructure.

The Ukrainians clearly prefer precision strikes where possible.  We need to keep up a constant flow of 155mm munitions to Ukraine, and soon consider replacing some of those tubes , which must be nearing the end of their service life.

Maybe set up a joint NATO service depot on the border just inside Poland?
View Quote View All Quotes
View All Quotes
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By Dominion21:
Originally Posted By Charging_Handle:
Originally Posted By Birddog15:




That looks like a huge ammo depot going up.  One would think that the Orcs would have learned by now that it is a bad idea to have huge piles of ammo stored in one place.


At some point, all this ammo going poof has got to make a difference in what they can do on the front lines.





I think it is already making a big difference. If we go back to June and use that "hot spot" tracker, Russia had an enormous advantage in artillery. They were firing far more rounds than Ukraine. That started to shift in July. Now (and for the past 2-3 weeks), Ukraine has had fire superiority over Russia in artillery.


10 Russian artillery rounds for 1 outgoing Ukrainian round.  That was what I remember from 2 months ago - especially in the East.  Things have changedz


The “hot spots” or fires maps posted daily in this thread have reversed themselves in the south.  Most of the strikes today are on the Russian side of the frontline in the south.

Also, the Russians seemed to use a tactic of indiscriminate mass shelling of vast civilian areas to first depopulate them, then send in their scared, untrained, unwilling conscripts to claim they now hold a destroyed village.  They seem to want to destroy infrastructure.

The Ukrainians clearly prefer precision strikes where possible.  We need to keep up a constant flow of 155mm munitions to Ukraine, and soon consider replacing some of those tubes , which must be nearing the end of their service life.

Maybe set up a joint NATO service depot on the border just inside Poland?



That would be a good idea, one of the other factors for longevity for an artillery system is to simply supply more precision rounds so less rounds and less guns have to engage a target.

Link Posted: 8/16/2022 9:35:38 AM EDT
[#28]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By Prime:
https://cisac.fsi.stanford.edu/news/one-more-time-it%E2%80%99s-not-about-nato

One. More. Time. It’s not about NATO

Vladimir Putin and the Kremlin had a number of reasons for invading Ukraine in February and starting the largest military conflict in Europe since World War II.  Putin sought to portray the pre-invasion crisis that Moscow created with Ukraine as a NATO-Russia dispute, but that framing does not stand up to serious scrutiny.


Vladimir Putin and the Kremlin had a number of reasons for invading Ukraine in February and starting the largest military conflict in Europe since World War II.  Putin sought to portray the pre-invasion crisis that Moscow created with Ukraine as a NATO-Russia dispute, but that framing does not stand up to serious scrutiny.

Putin tried hard.  In late 2021, he complained of NATO’s “rising” military threat on Russia’s western borders and demanded legal guarantees for Russia, as if the country with the world’s largest nuclear arsenal and largest army in Europe needed such guarantees.  Moscow proposed draft agreements with NATO and the United States that would have ruled out further NATO enlargement and required the Alliance to withdraw all military forces and infrastructure from members that had joined after 1997.

Washington and NATO offered to engage on other elements of the draft agreements regarding arms control and risk reduction measures, which could have made a genuine contribution to Europe’s security, including Russia.  However, U.S. and NATO officials would not foreswear further enlargement.  That became another grievance—along with false claims of neo-Nazis in Kyiv, genocide in Donbas and a Ukrainian pursuit of nuclear arms—that Putin cited in his February 24 explanation of his unjustifiable decision to launch a new invasion of Ukraine.

Some Western analysts continue to accept Putin’s argument that lays blame on NATO.  The history does not support that argument.

In July 1997, NATO invited Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic to begin accession negotiations—but only after first laying the basis for a cooperative relationship with Russia.  In May 1997, NATO and Russia concluded the Founding Act on Mutual Relations, Cooperation and Security, which set up a permanent body for consultation and coordination.

Among other things, the Founding Act reiterated that NATO had “no intention, no plan and no reason” to place nuclear weapons on the territory of new member states.  The Act also noted that NATO saw no need for the “permanent stationing of substantial combat forces” on the territory of new members.  These statements reflected the Alliance’s effort to make enlargement for Moscow as non-threatening as possible in military terms.

From 1997 to early 2014, NATO deployed virtually no combat forces on the territory of its new members.  That changed following Russia’s use of military force to seize Crimea and its involvement in the conflict in Donbas in eastern Ukraine in March and April 2014.  Even then, NATO moved to deploy, on a rotating basis, multinational battlegroups numbering 1,000-1,600 troops in each of the three Baltic states and Poland—no more than tripwire forces.

As for advancing the Alliance to Russia’s borders, five current NATO members border on Russia or the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad (this does not include Finland, which requested membership only in May 2022).  Of the five current members, the last to join the Alliance, the three Baltic states, did so in 2004.  That was 18 years ago.  Putin did not raise a fuss then.

In fact, in May 2002, Putin met NATO leaders in Rome and agreed to a joint declaration on deepening and giving a new quality to NATO-Russia relations.  In his address at that NATO-Russia summit, Putin expressed no concern about NATO enlargement, even though the Alliance planned a second summit later that year, and the Russian president had to know that NATO then would invite additional countries, quite probably including the Baltic states, to join.

Putin has in recent years played up grievances against NATO enlargement in ways that he did not when NATO was enlarging in Russia’s neighborhood.  The four countries that joined the Alliance after 2004 are all in the Balkans, quite distant from Russia’s borders.  The Russian president reacted calmly to this year’s Finnish and Swedish decisions to apply to join—even though Finland’s addition will more than double the length of Russia’s borders with NATO.

As for Moscow’s concerns about Ukraine entering NATO, Russian diplomats and spies surely understood there is little enthusiasm within the Alliance for putting Ukraine on a membership track.  With Russian troops occupying parts of Ukraine (even before the February attack), membership would invariably raise the question of allies going to war against Russia.

Ironically, Russia had a neutral Ukraine in 2013.  A 2010 Ukrainian law enshrined non-bloc status for the country, and then-Ukrainian President Victor Yanukovych showed no desire to join NATO.  He was interested in concluding an association agreement with the European Union, but he came under massive pressure from Moscow not to do so in late 2013.  He succumbed to that pressure, and the announcement that Kyiv would not sign the completed association agreement triggered protests that same evening that began the Maidan Revolution.

Putin’s decision to launch a new attack on Ukraine appears to have several motivations.  One is geopolitical, the Kremlin’s desire to have a Russian sphere of influence in the post-Soviet space and its fear that Ukraine was invariably moving away from Moscow.  This is a broader question than Ukraine’s relationship with NATO.  But nothing has done more than Russian policy and actions since 2014 to push Ukraine away from Russia and toward the West.

Russian domestic politics looks like a second key factor.  For the Kremlin, a democratic, Western-oriented, economically successful Ukraine poses a nightmare, because that Ukraine would cause Russians to question why they cannot have the same political voice and democratic rights that Ukrainians do.  For the Kremlin, regime preservation is job number one.

The third factor is Putin himself.  Reading his July 2021 essay on Ukraine or his February 24 speech on Russia’s recognition of the so-called “people’s republics” in Donbas makes clear that Putin does not accept the legitimacy of a sovereign and independent Ukrainian state.  He regards most of Ukraine as part of historical Russia.

On June 9, the Russian president voiced the quiet part aloud, implicitly comparing himself to Peter the Great on “returning” historic Russian lands to Moscow’s control.  Putin said, “Apparently, it is also our lot to return [what is Russia’s] and reinforce [the country].”  He said not one word about NATO or NATO enlargement.

Case closed.


View Quote

Prior to this conflict, I too was sympathetic to the Russian complaints of "NATO encroachment". I felt it was foolish to tempt Ukraine with NATO membership and unnecessarily tweaking Russia's paranoia.

But Feb 24th proved me wrong. Russia just wanted Ukraine! Out of hate and jealousy and a lust for murder and conquest. The possibility of them joining NATO just sped up their plans but was not the cause! NATO "encroachment" was the lie Putin used on his own people, trying to build paranoia and support.

I'm glad that Russia's lie about NATO had the self fulfilling prophecy of revitalizing and expanding NATO and turning neighbors hostile and militarized AGAINST Russia.
Link Posted: 8/16/2022 9:36:46 AM EDT
[Last Edit: AlmightyTallest] [#29]
This is a compilation video of the Ammo depot strike on Dzhankoy, Crimea.

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/wppc08/compilation_of_footage_of_ukraine_attack_on/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3






You guys want to see what got hit?  Here's a video of the area before the strike.

Link Posted: 8/16/2022 9:52:20 AM EDT
[#30]
Seems another airbase in Crimea has/is being attacked.

Link Posted: 8/16/2022 9:59:08 AM EDT
[#31]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
This is a compilation video of the Ammo depot strike on Dzhankoy, Crimea.

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/wppc08/compilation_of_footage_of_ukraine_attack_on/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3






You guys want to see what got hit?  Here's a video of the area before the strike.

View Quote

Any new (open source) theories on what the UA is using to hit targets in Crimea? I dont buy the "commando raid" theory.

I personally like the idea of drones launched from inside Crimea. Either by partisans, SOF, or both. But I have no idea about RU security precautions in Crimea. Check points, surveillance, random stops, etc...
Link Posted: 8/16/2022 10:03:12 AM EDT
[#32]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By ITCHY-FINGER:

Any new (open source) theories on what the UA is using to hit targets in Crimea? I dont buy the "commando raid" theory.

I personally like the idea of drones launched from inside Crimea. Either by partisans, SOF, or both. But I have no idea about RU security precautions in Crimea. Check points, surveillance, random stops, etc...
View Quote
I think the easiest explanation is we gave them ATACMS and didn't make it public (and said Crimea is Ukraine), followed by Hrim-2.
Link Posted: 8/16/2022 10:08:17 AM EDT
[#33]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By Dagger41:
Seems another airbase in Crimea has/is being attacked.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3_hzrQebys8
View Quote



I have a feeling today is going to be a busy day.
Link Posted: 8/16/2022 10:11:21 AM EDT
[Last Edit: AlmightyTallest] [#34]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By trapsh00ter99:
I think the easiest explanation is we gave them ATACMS and didn't make it public (and said Crimea is Ukraine), followed by Hrim-2.
View Quote View All Quotes
View All Quotes
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By trapsh00ter99:
Originally Posted By ITCHY-FINGER:

Any new (open source) theories on what the UA is using to hit targets in Crimea? I dont buy the "commando raid" theory.

I personally like the idea of drones launched from inside Crimea. Either by partisans, SOF, or both. But I have no idea about RU security precautions in Crimea. Check points, surveillance, random stops, etc...
I think the easiest explanation is we gave them ATACMS and didn't make it public (and said Crimea is Ukraine), followed by Hrim-2.



This is my own favorite theory as well.  2nd is the drone theory, or use of cruise missiles.  I'm curious about the Belorussian airbase with tons of S-400's, if it's struck with Hrim, then Ukraine can claim it was indigenous weapons systems that did it, striking such a base with ATACMS would be right out according to what the DoD said for weapons use with supplited US weapons systems.
Link Posted: 8/16/2022 10:16:05 AM EDT
[#35]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By ITCHY-FINGER:

Any new (open source) theories on what the UA is using to hit targets in Crimea? I dont buy the "commando raid" theory.

I personally like the idea of drones launched from inside Crimea. Either by partisans, SOF, or both. But I have no idea about RU security precautions in Crimea. Check points, surveillance, random stops, etc...
View Quote


Short range drone strike by SOF would fit with Russia's change in navy behavior. They're keeping their ships close and patrolling heavily along the Crimean coast, perhaps guarding against infiltration or extraction?
Link Posted: 8/16/2022 10:16:42 AM EDT
[#36]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:



I have a feeling today is going to be a busy day.
View Quote

So much for Crimea being an exclusive protected area. Whoever is doing the planning for the Ukrainians is doing one helluva job.
Link Posted: 8/16/2022 10:18:24 AM EDT
[Last Edit: AlmightyTallest] [#37]




Me too.  This might be a new thing, every Tuesday Crimea gets attacked.
Link Posted: 8/16/2022 10:22:07 AM EDT
[Last Edit: AlmightyTallest] [#38]
This is satellite imagery of the Railway junction that was hit in Crimea, holy enticing targets Batman!!


2km from the Railway
Link Posted: 8/16/2022 10:22:15 AM EDT
[Last Edit: governmentman] [#39]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:


https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FaSPOvAX0AAt03z?format=jpg&name=900x900

Me too.  This might be a new thing, every Tuesday Crimea gets attacked.
View Quote View All Quotes
View All Quotes
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:


https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FaSPOvAX0AAt03z?format=jpg&name=900x900

Me too.  This might be a new thing, every Tuesday Crimea gets attacked.


Tobacco Tuesday smoking accidents comrade.

No attacks, just incompetence. Its the Russian way.

Originally Posted By Dagger41:

So much for Crimea being an exclusive protected area. Whoever is doing the planning for the Ukrainians is doing one helluva job.


I imagine this is almost enjoyable for all the NATO advisors who are almost certainly helping with strategy. The only analogy I can come up with is if right before the gold medal game in the olympics, Russia substitutes their special olympics team for the normal one - but the medal up for grabs is still the same.
Link Posted: 8/16/2022 10:24:09 AM EDT
[#40]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:


https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FaSPOvAX0AAt03z?format=jpg&name=900x900

Me too.  This might be a new thing, every Tuesday Crimea gets attacked.
View Quote
Please Lord

Link Posted: 8/16/2022 10:24:14 AM EDT
[#41]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:


https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FaSPOvAX0AAt03z?format=jpg&name=900x900

Me too.  This might be a new thing, every Tuesday Crimea gets attacked.
View Quote


I wouldn't pass up a target of opportunity, but it would be pretty demoralizing to know that it's Tuesday, one of your airfields is going to get hammered, and there's nothing you can do to stop it.
Link Posted: 8/16/2022 10:35:45 AM EDT
[#42]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By ContraHQ:

British Army Base training Ukrainians with Chinese AK47's

ETA: Also no muzzle brake. Hopefully if they are MAK 90's they followed the UK version of 922r
View Quote


I think they were confiscated from an Iranian smuggling ship on its way to Yemen by the RN. And yes I realize your post was tongue in cheek. :-)
Link Posted: 8/16/2022 10:50:11 AM EDT
[#43]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
This is satellite imagery of the Railway junction that was hit in Crimea, holy enticing targets Batman!!


2km from the Railway
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FaR8OpRXkAEqvg0?format=jpg&name=4096x4096
View Quote




Holy hell!  Look at all those juicy targets parked side by each.  No wonder it looked like such a huge area was going up.






Link Posted: 8/16/2022 10:52:11 AM EDT
[#44]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By j_hooker:

I still can’t comprehend an invading army lacking BASIC items like matching sized boots….
View Quote

This explains why all the Ukrainian dead photographed have no boots on. Fucking Orcs.
Link Posted: 8/16/2022 10:55:29 AM EDT
[#45]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By Prime:
"If they don't believe us, maybe they'll believe a Chinese columnist"

In China, they told what Russia will do if NATO attacks the Crimea

MOSCOW, Aug. 16 — RIA Novosti. If NATO launches a military aggression against Crimea, Russia will respond by launching a missile strike on London. Said a columnist for the Chinese portal Sina.

https://ria.ru/20220816/udar-1809877875.html
View Quote

Attachment Attached File


Ukraine isn't part of NATO, so....
Link Posted: 8/16/2022 10:57:38 AM EDT
[#46]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
This is satellite imagery of the Railway junction that was hit in Crimea, holy enticing targets Batman!!

2km from the Railway
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FaR8OpRXkAEqvg0?format=jpg&name=4096x4096
View Quote


I wonder which ones are the "good" ones?  One has to assume half or more don't run.  
That looks like the sort of thing A-10 pilots dream about.
Link Posted: 8/16/2022 11:05:06 AM EDT
[#47]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
This is satellite imagery of the Railway junction that was hit in Crimea, holy enticing targets Batman!!


2km from the Railway
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FaR8OpRXkAEqvg0?format=jpg&name=4096x4096
View Quote



I can't wait to see the "after" photos on this depot.

The buildings where the trucks are backed up to are clearly ammo warehouses that would be incredible to drop a missile or two on.

Russia lost a ton of material there today.
Link Posted: 8/16/2022 11:05:50 AM EDT
[#48]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By weptek911:


I think they were confiscated from an Iranian smuggling ship on its way to Yemen by the RN. And yes I realize your post was tongue in cheek. :-)
View Quote

For every new Iranian tug that gets interdicted a new UA Battalion gets fully equipped...

Every free Coast Guard cutter and Navy Destroyer should rush to the Persian Gulf.
Link Posted: 8/16/2022 11:14:46 AM EDT
[Last Edit: AlmightyTallest] [#49]
I've been watching this scientist's twitter for a few weeks now, and he's got his program calibrated to the point he's able to pinpoint ammo dump explosions and missiles using magnetic anomaly detectors in the area.  This is the second time since the airbase in Crimea exploded last week he saw a launch from Odessa area of a mach 5 missile signature.



Link Posted: 8/16/2022 11:17:47 AM EDT
[#50]
DM-22 off route mine attack on a Russian truck, you can see the gray puff above and to the left of the truck before it's hit.

Page / 5582
OFFICIAL Russo-Ukrainian War (Page 2301 of 5582)
Close Join Our Mail List to Stay Up To Date! Win a FREE Membership!

Sign up for the ARFCOM weekly newsletter and be entered to win a free ARFCOM membership. One new winner* is announced every week!

You will receive an email every Friday morning featuring the latest chatter from the hottest topics, breaking news surrounding legislation, as well as exclusive deals only available to ARFCOM email subscribers.


By signing up you agree to our User Agreement. *Must have a registered ARFCOM account to win.
Top Top