Originally Posted By Splittiebus66:
Mirroring an earlier post, I have a friend who is a p/t lunch lady at our district. She's in charge of the orders/unloading and also is having issues. She said the trucks have been showing up basically empty.

Our stores here in my area are feast or famine. One will be stripped bare, the other full of product. Dairy seems the most affected.

Originally Posted By speedracer422:
Just texted a guy that works at my local Costco:

1 case of water or 1 pack of toilet paper per day

Looks like I need to invest in a Brita or something...I don't have enough pressure for an under the sink reverse osmosis filter and my well water tastes like ass lol.


Speed

Originally Posted By Canoeguy:
I know this is talked about regularly but maybe someone will read this and actually look at what is going on.

I do most of the shopping for my wife and I and I am telling you it is getting ridiculous. On top of that supply is getting low. This past Saturday I went to the store and couldn't find multiple items in the brands I have always bought.

Ribeyes were $18.97 a pound. I usually buy Oscar Meyer bacon but today I bought the grocery store brand because the Oscar Meyers was $9 for 12 oz. the food city brand was $4 when you bought 5.

I am fairly comfortable. I don't even pay attention to price most of the time for just the two of us. But I am not finding my brands more and more and the prices are getting to the point I am passing up items I am just not willing to pay for.

Again, I know this isn't news to anyone paying attention but maybe it will help someone. And one last thing to consider

You can not help your nation if you can not take care of yourself and your family.

Originally Posted By Canoeguy:

Laugh all you want. It will cost me about $90 and be worth more than crypto in the near future I am afraid.

Originally Posted By Canoeguy:


I am about to spring on a Berkey filter. I think the Royal for us.

Originally Posted By millfire517:
A pound of 80/20 hamburger is 5.99 here

Originally Posted By SFENDER:
Just got back from the store in Colorado. Everything was pretty full. A few specialty flavors of things were out of stock but there were no shortages. The paper isle was full and they had beef but it was expensive. Seemed pretty normal overall.

Originally Posted By Possum-Sammich:

Thanks for the report.

This is a strange time.  Everything is "normal", until it's not.  And that "Not" can happen suddenly, once the Karens start texting each other about what they read on social media.  Overnight, there will be shortages and lines and panic.  

It's tempting to say, "My stores are fine--those fuckers on the internet are just dooming again.  Just like they're calling for the stock market to collapse every Monday."  Cool.  You do you.  But watch the signs.  Just because you are good one day doesn't mean tomorrow won't be shitty.  

Something with a capital S is happening.  Prices are spiraling higher.  Just because you can find something with a coupon today, doesn't mean it's not happening.

Originally Posted By macman37:
If you take anything from my post, make it this: I just read an industry report that turkeys are likely going to be scarce this year. I suggest buying now or soon so you have it for Thanksgiving.

Originally Posted By CVO:
I can only afford Spam.


https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/140585/spam_jpg-2104646.JPG

Originally Posted By J_Von_Random:

Plus it is just the wise course of action to have some buffer anyway. If you can make do for a couple weeks or a month you have far more options even if SHTF for longer than your supplies, simply because you have more time to arrange alternative sources. In contrast if you only have a day's food at home then even small disruptions will screw you over.

This was once something that was generally understood because in primitive conditions if you don't prepare for the future you don't get to have a future. But we have had a few generations now of multiple layers of authority (from parents all the way up to the federal government) colluding to ensure the kids were as unprepared for the real world as possible.

Originally Posted By Possum-Sammich:

In my view, you are failing in your duties as the head of the house if you do not have at least a few months of food and water for your family.  Make it happen before the panic.

Originally Posted By 999monkeys:
Let’s keep this simple.

Demand keeps going up. Supply keeps going down (from these mysterious “supply chain issues” and other unknown factors).

We’re experiencing shortages of a bunch of different stuff, especially food.

What if the shortages don’t get better—what if they get worse?

What if, a few months from now, you walk into a grocery store and it is completely empty, except for the Beyond Meat?

What if the buying turns into panic buying?
What if...people think we are going to run out of food?

That is the nightmare scenario I am proposing. Shortages become so pervasive that people can’t get food or essentials. Inflation spikes to 20 or 30%—or higher.

It's within the range of possibilities.

My first piece of advice to you is to go to the grocery store and buy as much food as you can carry.

The first rule of panicking is to panic before everyone else does.
Go and spend $1,000 on essentials and store them in your freezer or pantry. I don’t ordinarily do this. In spite of having a pretty big house, there is not a lot of space to store stuff. We will make it fit. We made a big grocery trip over the weekend, and we will make another one next weekend. We will keep doing this until the house is completely full.

I mean, worst case scenario is that this never comes to pass, and you have a house full of food, and you eat it down over time.

My second piece of advice to you is to...sell stocks.
I’m getting the sense that the stock market is starting to get concerned about inflation, especially Friday’s gaudy “Producer Price Index” (PPI) number—which is up 8.3% over the last 12 months.



(When producers pay more to produce, we pay more to consume.)

If we get double-digit inflation, the stock market is going to go down. For sure. We are past the “fun” part of inflation and on to the “bad” part.
And the amazing thing is that it didn’t take long. And you can guess, the government’s response to massive shortages is going to be monumentally stupid, and make it monumentally worse.

The sentiment implications of civil unrest at grocery stores are not nil. For now, we have shortages in specific goods, and abnormally high prices in other goods (like meat), but soon, we will reach the tipping point, and hoarding will ensue. Hoarding is a natural reaction to scarcity.

Stocks are going to come under serious pressure.
So over the course of the next week or two, we are going to substantially liquidate much of the portfolio, unless it specifically pertains to inflation, or is part of a firm, long-term thesis.

I’ve been bullish for a very long time, but no more. Time to turn the ship around. There’s plenty of liquidity (for now).

Here’s the thesis: If inflation spikes well past 10%, the Fed is going to be forced into doing something about it, because they will be embarrassed.
I have always said that the Fed will not hike rates until they are embarrassed. If we have inflation well into the double digits, it will be clear by then that it’s not transitory (which you and I have known for over a year now).

The timeline of rate hikes will be pushed up substantially—maybe even immediately—and we’ll be looking at a huge liquidity shock to the capital markets. I hesitate to use the word “crash,” but you get the picture.

This will play out over the next couple of months. I have a feeling that things are going to get very ugly.

Let’s put it this way. Inflation has entered the public consciousness. Everyone is aware of it. First, it was merely a nuisance, and now, it is getting to be a problem. Wait for the first grocery store to run out of meat. Or bread. Or produce. And it makes the news. Kind of like a run on the bank.

I always say you have to have a big imagination in this business. The economy is poorly functioning, with labor shortages and shortages of raw materials.

A healthy economy is not plagued with shortages and dysfunction. And the trend is toward more dysfunction.
I tangentially asked for some inflation anecdotes from all y’all (hey, we are in the South) and boy did you guys deliver. Some incredible stories. I can’t share them here, but let me just say that if you could see my inbox, you would have a lot more conviction on inflation. It is not stopping, it is not going away, and it is only going to get worse, and it has the potential to explode higher.

I’ve spent some time talking about stocks, but we have not yet discussed the implications for the bond market. Well, it’s hard to imagine that Treasuries will stand still with inflation approaching 20%. Stranger things have definitely happened, but the bond market seems vulnerable here to me.

And credit: Remember that financial market risk is determined by the volatility of inflation. I can see an environment in which spreads widen dramatically. If you’re making markets in corporate bonds, this would be a good time to keep things close to home, and not carry a lot of inventory.

Volatility will spike, to VIX 40 at least. We’ll be having 2% daily moves in the index, or more. I am generally not a fan of long volatility trades, like VXX or VIX futures or options, but now is as good a time as any. We are in a higher volatility regime than we were in 2017, and we will go to yet an even higher volatility regime.

I am an inflation bull, but I no longer believe that it will benefit the capital markets. We are past the fun part. The next part could end with rationing. And Americans really, really do not like rationing. We haven’t even discussed the new vaccine order, which will result in millions of people leaving their jobs on principle. You think labor shortages are bad now.

In case I wasn’t clear earlier—go to the grocery store and load up. Unlike the stock market, there are no consequences to being wrong.

Originally Posted By Possum-Sammich:

Exactly.  You can literally, for $50, have a month of food security.  It will be rice and beans and peas and lentils and a jug of oil, but it will supplement what you already have in your house.  

How many people out there are pissing and moaning right now because of the Russian ammo ban?  7.62x39 was so cheap for so many years.  We heard the threats.  Except they weren't threats--they fucking TOLD US what they were planning.  And so many ignored it, said it couldn't happen, said not to be defeatists and doomers.  Then litererally overnight, blasting ammo was gone or exhorbitant.  It doesn't matter if the ban is bullshit or that supplies will recover.  There is a shortage because of panic.  It's self-fulfilling.  You can blame hoarders and Biden and rage, but it doesn't change reality.  The world of ammo has changed.  What's the next change?  

In my view, you are failing in your duties as the head of the house if you do not have at least a few months of food and water for your family.  Make it happen before the panic.

Originally Posted By J_Von_Random:

"Hoarders" is one of those terms that instantly tells you the person speaking is a fool who doesn't understand anything whatsoever about how reality works. The people they whine about are in fact the single greatest force in reducing the length and severity of shortages.

As for preparation... well I've only recently got into a position when I *can* have backup supplies, so stumbling more or less in the right direction.

Originally Posted By Canoeguy:

Rice and beans. If you don’t like that then get beans and rice. Get as much as you can stocked as you can live on them. You won’t be happy, but you can live on them.  Absolute best bang for your buck.

Once you have a decent supply you can branch out.

Originally Posted By Pointman91:
Wife said Sam's today was limiting TP to one pack per day. I told her to quit buying anyway as we have a three year supply but limited space to store more.

We bought $202 worth of canned and dry goods yesterday and didn't even fill the cart.

Originally Posted By fxntime:


What the heck are you buying?

Originally Posted By DeathHates:


Chalk.

Originally Posted By Canoeguy:

Laugh all you want. It will cost me about $90 and be worth more than crypto in the near future I am afraid.

Originally Posted By Spartikis:

Salt?

There is an ocean full of it. They have been drying sea salt for thousands of years...

Originally Posted By speedracer422:
Just texted a guy that works at my local Costco:

1 case of water or 1 pack of toilet paper per day

Looks like I need to invest in a Brita or something...I don't have enough pressure for an under the sink reverse osmosis filter and my well water tastes like ass lol.


Speed

Originally Posted By Canoeguy:



Like I mentioned earlier I think it goes even beyond your household. If you are a fit and able bodied male in this country you have an obligation to be prepared to answer whatever call may come.

You can not do that if you can't even take care of yourself and your family.

Guns, armor, ammo, night vision, and all the gear. Who gives a shit because you will be worthless to this Republic if you are starving.

Originally Posted By speedracer422:

Those look nice, but they seem pretty pricey for such a simple device.

Maybe I'll order some activated charcoal and just ghetto up my own in house gravity filter

Speed

Originally Posted By jollyg83:
I lost several hundred dollars of meat because someone didn’t close the freezer all the way.  I’m pissed.

Originally Posted By jake23l:
I do quite a bit of our families grocery shopping.  Prices here have been steadily increasing but nothing crazy.  Good sales on meat are getting really hard to find.  But at least shelves are all well stocked and have been for a while now.  I'm in the outskirts of KC.

Scored a few of these at price chopper last month to set back.

Shop deals, buy cheap and stack deep.

https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/146744/20210806_090612_jpg-2101466.JPG