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Posted: 5/17/2021 11:12:50 AM EDT
[#1]
It just blew through the first support level and is bouncing off the 2nd, if it goes through 1320 or so today, next stop is going to be like 1250, then if it blows through that, pretty much a free fall.
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Posted: 5/17/2021 12:11:01 PM EDT
[#2]
Quote HistoryQuoted: It just blew through the first support level and is bouncing off the 2nd, if it goes through 1320 or so today, next stop is going to be like 1250, then if it blows through that, pretty much a free fall. https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/277411/lumber_5_17_PNG-1945636.JPG lets cross our fingers. I have lots of stuff to get done summer since last summer was lost due to job uncertainty. |
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Posted: 5/17/2021 12:13:16 PM EDT
[#3]
Quote HistoryQuoted: It just blew through the first support level and is bouncing off the 2nd, if it goes through 1320 or so today, next stop is going to be like 1250, then if it blows through that, pretty much a free fall. https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/277411/lumber_5_17_PNG-1945636.JPG |
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Posted: 5/17/2021 12:21:51 PM EDT
[#4]
Cool.
Maybe I can replace my deck this summer after all. |
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Posted: 5/17/2021 12:23:17 PM EDT
[#5]
Quote HistoryQuoted: It just blew through the first support level and is bouncing off the 2nd, if it goes through 1320 or so today, next stop is going to be like 1250, then if it blows through that, pretty much a free fall. https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/277411/lumber_5_17_PNG-1945636.JPG I appreciate your updates on this. We’ve delayed our home build because of this BS. Enjoying that ridiculous number coming down. |
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Posted: 5/17/2021 12:24:06 PM EDT
[#6]
Quoted: lets cross our fingers. I have lots of stuff to get done summer since last summer was lost due to job uncertainty. Quoted: My body is ready. same here....I have a loft to build... But I am fullying expecting it to carry out the other half of the head and shoulders pattern....I would be shocked if it didn't |
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Posted: 5/17/2021 12:24:18 PM EDT
[#7]
So glad I bought $8k worth 2 weeks ago
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Posted: 5/17/2021 12:25:10 PM EDT
[#8]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I appreciate your updates on this. We’ve delayed our home build because of this BS. Enjoying that ridiculous number coming down. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: It just blew through the first support level and is bouncing off the 2nd, if it goes through 1320 or so today, next stop is going to be like 1250, then if it blows through that, pretty much a free fall. https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/277411/lumber_5_17_PNG-1945636.JPG I appreciate your updates on this. We’ve delayed our home build because of this BS. Enjoying that ridiculous number coming down. Yep...it's not really sustainable long term to have lumber this high. There really is little juice to squeeze out of the housing market. mortgage Rates cant really compress that much more. |
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Posted: 5/17/2021 12:25:28 PM EDT
[#9]
Quote HistoryQuoted: So glad I bought $8k worth 2 weeks ago damn... 
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Posted: 5/17/2021 12:27:19 PM EDT
[#10]
Just remember, retail prices don't drop nearly as fast as the underlying commodity. Super high prices are with us for at least 4 - 8 weeks. Maybe then they'll drop to just 'High'.
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Posted: 5/17/2021 12:29:03 PM EDT
[#11]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Just remember, retail prices don't drop nearly as fast as the underlying commodity. Super high prices are with us for at least 4 - 8 weeks. Maybe then they'll drop to just 'High'. if the inventory managers of the lumber yards are doing their job, retail should start to come down farily quickly. Now if you have the ass hats at lowes and HD that loaded up at the top, their prices are gonna hand up there a while despite the local lumber yards bringing them to the woodshed. |
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Posted: 5/17/2021 12:29:22 PM EDT
[#12]
Good. Maybe I will be able to afford a fence this year.
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Posted: 5/17/2021 12:32:23 PM EDT
[#13]
Quote HistoryQuoted: In the lumber industry. Mills are still taking whatever trash Is sent and paying stupid money for it. So you're saying you've got wood all the time? |
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Posted: 5/17/2021 12:32:36 PM EDT
[#14]
It's a dicey commodity right now, and charts only respect technical analysis until they don't.
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Posted: 5/17/2021 12:34:09 PM EDT
[#15]
Quote HistoryQuoted: It's a dicey commodity right now, and charts only respect technical analysis until they don't. If my quant model told you that Santa Claus as coming to town, then you'd better hang up your stocking. |
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Posted: 5/17/2021 12:35:20 PM EDT
[#16]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Cool. Maybe I can replace my deck this summer after all. No shit there. Planned on replacing my second story 8x16 deck late last winter, but prices were way up there. Hopefully I can make it a fall project. |
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Posted: 5/17/2021 12:35:33 PM EDT
[#17]
Quote HistoryQuoted: If my quant model told you that Santa Claus as coming to town, then you'd better hang up your stocking. Maybe, we'll see. The companies aren't upping production by any significant numbers and the demand isn't shrinking. |
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Posted: 5/17/2021 12:38:16 PM EDT
[#18]
Plus retail prices are a lot stickier than the traded commodity price.
1700 never got priced in since it was there so briefly. There might be less room to fall than you think if things stabilize in the 1200-1400 range. |
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Posted: 5/17/2021 12:38:30 PM EDT
[#19]
Ya know.....
Hurricane season is about 15 days away..... one or two good storms and we are off to the races..... Red |
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Posted: 5/17/2021 12:42:08 PM EDT
[#20]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Cool. Maybe I can replace my deck this summer after all. I’ve got a deck / solarium project bouncing around in my head. Got a stupid estimate for the solarium out of aluminum, so I’m back to wood and DIY. Maybe this year is back in the realm of what is possible. |
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Posted: 5/17/2021 12:43:00 PM EDT
[#21]
Need it to crash
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Posted: 5/17/2021 1:04:20 PM EDT
[#22]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Need it to crash its going to the mills aren't dumb, that's why they aren't expanding. |
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Posted: 5/17/2021 1:34:36 PM EDT
[#23]
Some of the local mills have had loggers on quotas here for a while. The loggers have seen no increase and if they could get the mills to take more they would. I think majority of this is strictly the mills, whether it's not enough employees to keep up with demand or just an attempt to capitalize while the getting is good.
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Posted: 5/17/2021 6:52:50 PM EDT
[#24]
Tag to watch
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Posted: 5/17/2021 7:00:25 PM EDT
[#25]
https://futures.tradingcharts.com/news/futures/U_S__Homebuilders_Call_For_Elimination_Of_Tariffs_On_Canadian_Lumber_386747545.html
Tariffs on the chopping block and in negotiations |
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Posted: 5/17/2021 7:06:22 PM EDT
[#26]
Just wait until lumber pulls back and then Lennar or other homebuilders charge in to lock in the next year of prices. Demand will ensure high prices and low interest rates are here for another year and there is no sight in end for city dwellers moving to the country.
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Posted: 5/17/2021 7:48:40 PM EDT
[#27]
Quote HistoryQuoted: https://futures.tradingcharts.com/news/futures/U_S__Homebuilders_Call_For_Elimination_Of_Tariffs_On_Canadian_Lumber_386747545.html Tariffs on the chopping block and in negotiations 9% tarriff 
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Posted: 5/17/2021 10:58:55 PM EDT
[#28]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Just wait until lumber pulls back and then Lennar or other homebuilders charge in to lock in the next year of prices. Demand will ensure high prices and low interest rates are here for another year and there is no sight in end for city dwellers moving to the country. Well fuck them and their re-grown garbage anyway. ICF for perimeter walls and metal for the interiors and if I can figure a way around a wood sub-floor and roof, they can eat the bug infested, fire hazard shit. Hopefully the greedy motherfuckers fixt |
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Posted: 5/17/2021 11:09:42 PM EDT
[#29]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Well fuck them and their re-grown garbage anyway. ICF for perimeter walls and metal for the interiors and if I can figure a way around a wood sub-floor and roof, they can eat the bug infested, fire hazard shit. Hopefully the greedy motherfuckers fixt Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Just wait until lumber pulls back and then Lennar or other homebuilders charge in to lock in the next year of prices. Demand will ensure high prices and low interest rates are here for another year and there is no sight in end for city dwellers moving to the country. Well fuck them and their re-grown garbage anyway. ICF for perimeter walls and metal for the interiors and if I can figure a way around a wood sub-floor and roof, they can eat the bug infested, fire hazard shit. Hopefully the greedy motherfuckers fixt There already is a way around wood subfloor and roof sheating. Look up Coosa composite board. It's expensive, but it will not rot and bug can't eat it. |
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Posted: 5/17/2021 11:33:36 PM EDT
[#30]
Quote HistoryQuoted: There already is a way around wood subfloor and roof sheating. Look up Coosa composite board. It's expensive, but it will not rot and bug can't eat it. It is freaking insanely expensive Bluewater 20 Series Marine Board Coosa Composites Bluewater 20 Heavy Duty Reinforced Composite Board - Standard Sheets Bluewater 20 Series 4' x 8' Sheet - 3/4" Thick (40 lb); Min $263.00 a sheet |
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Posted: 5/17/2021 11:40:14 PM EDT
[#31]
you can do ICF concrete floors and roofs, just adds to build time as shoring needs to stay a good while.
 How to Pour ICF Decking - BuildDeck  Insul-deck pitched concrete roof pt 5 |
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Posted: 5/17/2021 11:51:26 PM EDT
[#32]
Quote HistoryQuoted: you do see the left hand side of a head and shoulders pattern dont you? And there are a slew of data points, the left of a H&S pattern, the mean line, i.e. eventually mean reversion will occur, fibonachi retracement, etc |
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Posted: 5/18/2021 12:04:41 AM EDT
[#33]
Quote HistoryQuoted: It just blew through the first support level and is bouncing off the 2nd, if it goes through 1320 or so today, next stop is going to be like 1250, then if it blows through that, pretty much a free fall. https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/277411/lumber_5_17_PNG-1945636.JPG. |
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Posted: 5/18/2021 9:00:30 AM EDT
[#34]
Quote HistoryQuoted: It is freaking insanely expensive Bluewater 20 Series Marine Board Coosa Composites Bluewater 20 Heavy Duty Reinforced Composite Board - Standard Sheets Bluewater 20 Series 4' x 8' Sheet - 3/4" Thick (40 lb); Min $263.00 a sheet Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: There already is a way around wood subfloor and roof sheating. Look up Coosa composite board. It's expensive, but it will not rot and bug can't eat it. It is freaking insanely expensive Bluewater 20 Series Marine Board Coosa Composites Bluewater 20 Heavy Duty Reinforced Composite Board - Standard Sheets Bluewater 20 Series 4' x 8' Sheet - 3/4" Thick (40 lb); Min $263.00 a sheet buy once cry once
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Posted: 5/18/2021 9:00:55 AM EDT
[#35]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Peepeepoopoo Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: you do see the left hand side of a head and shoulders pattern dont you? And there are a slew of data points, the left of a H&S pattern, the mean line, i.e. eventually mean reversion will occur, fibonachi retracement, etc 
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Posted: 5/18/2021 9:06:27 AM EDT
[#36]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Thanks for this thread, updates etc., really appreciate your insight. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: It just blew through the first support level and is bouncing off the 2nd, if it goes through 1320 or so today, next stop is going to be like 1250, then if it blows through that, pretty much a free fall. https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/277411/lumber_5_17_PNG-1945636.JPG. anytime.....I am just trying to give people hope that the lumber pain is gonna ease eventually. |
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Posted: 5/18/2021 9:11:41 AM EDT
[#37]
Quote HistoryQuoted: anytime.....I am just trying to give people hope that the lumber pain is gonna ease eventually. Please keep updating. This lumber issue needs to get back to 2019 pricing. |
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Posted: 5/18/2021 9:14:56 AM EDT
[#38]
Quote HistoryQuoted: We will see. Paid $38 3 weeks ago for 7/16 OSB for a home. Yesterday it was at $52 and my salesman said they expected close to $60 sheet within the next week or so. Paid $21 a sheet in October. Thought I was getting raped then. |
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Posted: 5/18/2021 9:17:15 AM EDT
[#39]
Should I wait to build a small shed? Price for a 8x10 with T11 is $2960. That is a 2x6 floor with 3/4" plywood and 2x4 for the structure. Everything included. Same price a few years ago we got a quote for $2100.
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Posted: 5/18/2021 9:18:27 AM EDT
[#40]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Should I wait to build a small shed? Price for a 8x10 with T11 is $2960. That is a 2x6 floor with 3/4" plywood and 2x4 for the structure. Everything included. Same price a few years ago we got a quote for $2100. up to you, is the extra $800 a big deal? |
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Posted: 5/18/2021 9:20:23 AM EDT
[#41]
Quote HistoryQuoted: up to you, is the extra $800 a big deal? I'm just being a cheapass. Don't need the shed ASAP, as stuff its in the garage well enough. That extra $800 could go towards putting a nice new toy in the shed as well. But if we don't think prices won't get better til lets say the fall then I'd rather not wait. |
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Posted: 5/18/2021 9:20:56 AM EDT
[#42]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Should I wait to build a small shed? Price for a 8x10 with T11 is $2960. That is a 2x6 floor with 3/4" plywood and 2x4 for the structure. Everything included. Same price a few years ago we got a quote for $2100. 8x10 feet is probably too small. |
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Posted: 5/18/2021 9:22:28 AM EDT
[#43]
Quote HistoryQuoted: 8x10 feet is probably too small. Yes very true, but we don't have a big lot only 16,000sqft and it's better than nothing lol. |
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Posted: 5/18/2021 9:24:48 AM EDT
[#44]
Quote HistoryQuoted: his wifes dad is a professional home builder. they simply did not expect or were able to afford the soaring lumber pricing as the build progressed. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: sounds like they need to learn how to be carpenters. his wifes dad is a professional home builder. they simply did not expect or were able to afford the soaring lumber pricing as the build progressed. Labor is only part of the problem. Wiring, PVC, Sheetrock, and windows have started to catch up with the crazy lumber prices. Let’s talk paint prices/shortages... |
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Posted: 5/18/2021 9:31:50 AM EDT
[#45]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I'm just being a cheapass. Don't need the shed ASAP, as stuff its in the garage well enough. That extra $800 could go towards putting a nice new toy in the shed as well. But if we don't think prices won't get better til lets say the fall then I'd rather not wait. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: up to you, is the extra $800 a big deal? I'm just being a cheapass. Don't need the shed ASAP, as stuff its in the garage well enough. That extra $800 could go towards putting a nice new toy in the shed as well. But if we don't think prices won't get better til lets say the fall then I'd rather not wait. you can always wait and build a bigger shed. I just built a 30x40 and I should have gone bigger.
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Posted: 5/18/2021 9:32:07 AM EDT
[#46]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Labor is only part of the problem. Wiring, PVC, Sheetrock, and windows have started to catch up with the crazy lumber prices. Let’s talk paint prices/shortages... Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Quoted: sounds like they need to learn how to be carpenters. his wifes dad is a professional home builder. they simply did not expect or were able to afford the soaring lumber pricing as the build progressed. Labor is only part of the problem. Wiring, PVC, Sheetrock, and windows have started to catch up with the crazy lumber prices. Let’s talk paint prices/shortages... copper is retarded expensive |
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Posted: 5/18/2021 9:51:42 AM EDT
[#47]
Quote HistoryQuoted: We will see. Paid $38 3 weeks ago for 7/16 OSB for a home. Yesterday it was at $52 and my salesman said they expected close to $60 sheet within the next week or so. And 3 years ago it was $15/sheet. It's just insanity. I've property and trees. For the cost of 33 sheets of 3/4 ply, I can buy a portable mill and make as much lumber as I can grow. THAT's just nuts. |
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Posted: 5/18/2021 9:55:23 AM EDT
[#48]
Quote HistoryQuoted: And 3 years ago it was $15/sheet. It's just insanity. I've property and trees. For the cost of 33 sheets of 3/4 ply, I can buy a portable mill and make as much lumber as I can grow. THAT's just nuts. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: We will see. Paid $38 3 weeks ago for 7/16 OSB for a home. Yesterday it was at $52 and my salesman said they expected close to $60 sheet within the next week or so. And 3 years ago it was $15/sheet. It's just insanity. I've property and trees. For the cost of 33 sheets of 3/4 ply, I can buy a portable mill and make as much lumber as I can grow. THAT's just nuts. Unfortunately, lumber doesn’t grow very fast |
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Posted: 5/18/2021 10:03:05 AM EDT
[#49]
looking out on futures pricing we have some contango going on, which just means that we have an inverted futures curve and that todays lumber spot prices are higher than lumber futures prices down the road.
If we remember from back pre 2014 when oil was a hot commodity, USO and the other ETFs that traded futures were getting smoked because of this. When you have an inverted futures curve like this, to the point where we are, prices tend to fall steeply, because those who are buying short term contracts for much higher than contracts further out eventually need to cover their positions or take delivery. Either way is normally a losing proposition.  Attached File1 year out and the market has spot 30% less than what it is today. |
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Posted: 5/18/2021 10:50:54 AM EDT
[#50]
Loggers here are burying or burning dozens of log trucks worth of logs every day, and have been doing it for months. FEMA says that trees or logs that had any ash on them must be destroyed because of ash contamination.
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