So you don't think it will crash... I knew a lot of people that thouht that in 2007 and they had a bit of a rocky time in 2008, and were left with nothing because they leveraged way too much.

The rate of climb we are in cannot be sustained. There is a crash coming. The thing is no one is sure what the trigger will be.

I know you guys have been saying it since the covid shutdown. I kept asking when, and essentially always got the "soon" reply. I have believed that outlook, but was expecting to see it sooner. I'm not an economics doctor or anything but what happened and is happening now with shutdowns has to have financial consequences.

Well, the wife and I have credit score averages in the 760 range, not super high but pretty decent.  We are in the process of building a house that has a conventional loan at around 3%.  

We're comfortable with the cost and see no issue with keeping up with the payments when they start.

I am not putting our lives on hold any longer because of what may happen.  If the worst comes we'll deal with it then.

I completely agree!

LOL indeed.  


You truly understand the markets.

Economists have predicted 14 of the last 3 recessions.

Arfcom has predicted 87,000 of the last 3 recession.

Explain to me how a financial bailout will ruin our individual freedoms and liberties, use small words.

No. I do understand supply/demand which does apply to stock prices and pretty much to price of any thing.

Oh ya things are so great people are lining up for guns, ammo, food, toilet paper, saving money for the first time in forever, and leaving the cities for homes bought unseen as fast as they can find a truck, all because high confidence.

For those that understand, no explanation is necessary. For those that don’t, no explanation is possible.

LOL, you think stock price is about “supply and demand”. That’s cute.  

What happens to cryptocurrency if OP’s prediction comes true? Up or down?

That’s funny. In your OP you mentioned GME which is a perfect example.  Supply is fixed, which means demand drives price.

Great question.  Based on the way that several digital wallet platforms have been bullied into making the users with USA IP addresses verify their identity I imagine that the “system” will pick winners and losers just like they do in the fiat market.

Well, if you want to make this $GME specific.....what’s your prediction on the price?  

When do you think there will be a price change? If at all...

Thinks supply of stock is fixed.

LOL, exactly.  



He doesn’t understand float and the % of float shorted.

Edit: or the concept of “counterfeit share”

Stalin had to kill a shitload of his countrymen & enslave the remainder to keep the ride from stopping.

What's old is new again?

On one hand, with every passing day I see the dystopian fiction of my youth become reality.
On the other, I have waited with anticipation for the apocalypse since the cold war....and I am still waiting.

Starting to feel much more like Brave New World than 1984.....everyone sits around, gets high, and stays entertained...just the way the government wants them to. For as long as those folks are the focal point, Im in the clear.

Let me guess, you're a Keynesian.

How many businesses have closed in the last year, and how does what you say work when everyone is getting money to do nothing and the economy isn't being opened up?

Joseph Stealin already said it would take 10 years for full employment. And I'm willing to bet he has more of an idea of what's planned for the future.

Like before 2008?

I remember reading posts online a few months before everything went to shit saying everything was ok and doing great. Bet that person woke up pretty quick after he probably lost his jerb.

The worst part is many of the businesses were mom and pop places. They might not have the means or desire to do anything now and just retire early.

Consumer confidence and demand for homes would both be in the toilet were it not for artificially low interest rates and trillions of dollars worth of transfer payments. That's a fact. In fact, home prices would probably be cratering near or below their 2012 levels right about now if it were not for several trillion dollars of direct transfer payments, price fixing of interest rates, and mortgage forbearance. None of which are products of a free market or the result natural supply/demand.

If you believe stimulus, price controls and trillions in govt transfer payments are such a great way to drive an economy, then I can only assume that you're a Democrat, because that's the core of their fiscal policy prescription.

Do you believe there are any negative consequences of socialistic policies? I do. And most of the people you call "doomers" do as well because they actually believe in free market capitalism. Something that appears to stand in contrast to your economic worldview.

The fact is, our "greatest economy ever" couldn't handle 2.2% interest rates in 2018, much less now. In fact, the stock and bond markets shit the bed so hard in late 2018, it prompted the Fed to immediately halt rate hikes, and start cutting again shortly after... That was before Corona during "the greatest economy ever." Then the Repo market began to blow up in late 2019, forcing the fed to begin "Not QE" and start expanding their balance sheet with more QE... before Corona.

Were there ever a situation that caused rates to rise above 2.2%, this market is dead. That's just the reality. You appear to be banking on the fact that interest rates will remain low for perpetuity. Given the fact that interest rates are currently at the lowest level in human history, I would beg to differ. If rates rose again to even the historic norm of 5%, this dogshit economy is in the toilet, and the federal government is forced into austerity. Just the facts.


"BuT WHEn Is IT gOInG tO HappEn?!?!??"

How about you tell me the exact day that the DOW is going to hit 50000?
I don't know. But I believe it will happen eventually. In fact, I am just as confident in socialistic central planning not working as you are confident in socialistic central planning being the key to long term prosperity and economic growth.

That entire state isn't worth 280k in my opinion.

You aren't wrong. Everyone thinks they are a wizard, and eventually the market will go down, who ever post about the economy crashing that week  will threat that person like they are a god.

That's about what I expected.

Wait a minute...... I think that stuff is happening.... oooooooooohhh shit!

Demand is only part of the equation. People aren’t selling in some locations as well.

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I really don't see GME going $1,000 but shit I've been wrong before. I'm involved in the alternatives industry and just don't see it. While the shorts are still high they aren't nearly as high as previous. Many got out of the game especially when it saw that earlier dip. I've seen a few hedge funds take it on the chin but also many that banked on it.

Speculation, ease of investing, people looking for other avenues to make money has kind of thrown the market into a weird spin. In the case of GME I think most would agree that their current market cap is somewhat hard to justify. Quant investing is out right now, speculation is in.

Just noticed that the fund that took it on the chin from GME, Melvin, was up like 22% in February.

Financial bailout leads to more inflation leads to lower real economic growth leads to more dependence on the government leads to more socialism / communism, leads to more dollar devaluations, Repeats in a cycle.       C’mon dude.   I shouldn’t have to type this out.   Even people who claim to be slow, can see it happening in real time.  
Read historical precedents and understand, we aren't immune to basic math.    

The above is not controversial.   Conservatives and liberals agree it’s a very simple  [ If —>Then ] computation.    Only difference is, Liberals Like it.  

We just don’t know if unchecked money creation will lead to stock market gains in excess of inflation, or if the government/Fed manipulation will lead to “unforeseen” consequences.

Here’s small words......



What does COVID relief have to do with gender studies in Pakistan?


Answer that.....and you will have your answer.

Read what I wrote and dispute it.  Also, state your ideological perspective/agenda.  I can’t keep track anymore.

It could easily go to $5,000


No shit.

Stop. Just stop.....pearls before swine bro.  He knows what the answer is. He just doesn’t want to believe.

Well, if you think about it, a little over 1 year ago, the market went down from around 29k to 18k. Some would call that a "crash". The market is up at 31 and change. We have not seen the economic impact of Kung Flu yet because we, once again, printed our way out of the hole precisely like we did after the 2008 crash. Is a correction likely? Definitely. Perhaps not a "crash" per se but as the mortgage forbearance goes away and money-for-nothing goes away and the real estate values in libtard shitholes continue to plummet along with people leaving blue states in droves, all those things are already coming home to roost.

Somebody above mentioned SPACs as being the next MBS securities like bubble bursting. That's entirely possible as well.

We can't continue to keep 50% of our economy shut down for much longer. That's why we're seeing states like Texas and Florida get rid of mask mandates and arbitrary shutdowns. They destroy small businesses which are the engines of growth in this country.

I don't believe in labels. We can self-identify as anything these days.

I am not sure a bailout is going to work.  I mean sure they will print the value of our money into less than toilet paper but at this point the house of cards is doused with gasoline and people are playing with ferro rods seeing who can get the closest without burning it down.

It's not if but when and it wont take long for it all to burn to shit.  It will likely take the gasoline longer to burn than the cheap chinese made cards they built it with.

Once I started seeing lenders pre-approving my buyers for hundreds of thousands of dollars in home loans, and then allowing them to purchase homes without anything but an appraisal (if they couldn't get a waiver for that too, which has been the case more often than not), I started thinking it's time to get while the gettin' is good...

Nope no way. You are saying you think their market cap would go to 3.2 trillion? No way it will, it couldn't even get to $500 with double the current short %. It would take a very very large coordinated effort and noone cracking, selling and creating a then massive sell off.

I just don't see it happening...unless I'm seriously missing something.

Yeah, retirement will consist of dying of cholera in a re-education camp.

Dredged this up from earlier in the thread, because it's a good example.

"Stocks always go up."  Okay, our hapless investor shoved his money into the market in 2000.  Draw a horizontal line to the right to see when he's back to even.   [insert reference to opportunity loss for the period, since he sat on his stocks till they were green again]

Timeframes of analysis matter.  The market does reset downward, and it does NOT always recover quickly.  If you're sure that's a train coming, it's okay to step out of the way.  If you're wrong, you just push your money back in.  Broad markets drop a lot faster than they rise.


Is it possible that some of the big players have run into some difficulties with naked shorting?  Heh.  "Perhaps."  But I'm thinking that what we'll get to see and hear about it is pretty limited.  Someone's ass is showing, this game can be run against them again and again, and they really don't want more people to play, as they'd have to change the rules.  Shorting is lucrative and powerful and they like it.

Guess what is coming very soon?

Be prepared to speak a foreign language and wear makeup and funny clothes.

I will,quite literally bet you here and now, with someone acting as a third party escrow....$10,000 that it passes $500


Put up or shut up.  I’m actually willing to do this. It would be the easiest money I’ve ever made.

So when it pops, they just hold on, you lose your equity, and .Gov money printer goes Brrrrt. Then you go out and get in debt on a house again. Wash, rinse and repeat..... Or keep transferring that wealth from the middle class.

I feel something going on too. Maybe it isn't the market, but more like some Germans were feeling when Hitler came to power. They have already told us "You'll own nothing and be happy". I think they mean it. But the normalcy bias is kicked in. And since there is no "Hitler" to see, like Trump was for the left. Biden is just an old guy, no threat there right????

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Nobody?


Usually Arf jumps on such a call out.

That's political pork, it's been going on for a long time, whether it's R or D. How the fuck do you correlate the fat cats in WA giving away our money to losing our freedoms?

I'm specifically asking why you think bailouts or stimulus payments will erode our personal freedoms and liberties. The only possible thing I can comprehend you might be talking about is socialism going to communism, but I don't buy it. There's a lot of socialist countries out there, ours included that haven't gone Stalin on their people, and if they ever did, there's a lot of American gun owners that will say otherwise.