Thanks for the clarification.  I get it.  Not what I'd do (the credit), but I have real money on the line too (my own accounts), in different areas from you.  Ma's accounts (which I manage with Pop gone now) are being handled very conservatively, out of respect for doing it his way, for preferring conservation over growth in a volatile market, and I moved her to more than 50% in cash a while ago.  (I'm in this daily, so when it's time I'll be aware; no "cash under the bed forever" thing.)

Pop did well.  He started poor -- shoes from the city dump poor -- and died a self-made millionaire.  He took advice from others, studied before each investment, and understood the value of compounded interest.  Not bad for a high-school education and shining shoes for $0.05 after elementary school was over.

i hope you do well.  I hope I do well.  I hope we all do well.  But the table is set, and somebody's going to eat for sure.

Walking the talk! Hell yes!!!!!!! Keep plenty of tourniquets close by.

The Dow 25k thread back in crash of 2020 was a ton of fun.

Rather than just doom and gloom and obscure predictions I tell you guys what im actually doing. Line of credit will take about a week to get open, I talked to broker/advisor this morning and we got it started.

Yes, I had a scheduled meeting with him on a Saturday morning. He knows taxes wiped all our cash out so he said “if you need cash, let’s do this…I know you hate selling”

And at 3.5%?  Sign me the fuck up. It’s not prime based. It’s nothing more than a secured line of credit. Like how I use helocs, except the secured portion is stocks, not my house. It’s a cash flow buffer so I don’t have to sell and can devote cash to buying.

There’s bargains right now and things could get cheaper. I want to be ready to eat.

Stock up while you still have the dollars.


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I prefer beef.

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Send more money to Ukraine I mean Brandon and his boy. Quick!

I admire your moxie!

I have a lot of my own money to roll back into the market. But I'm waiting for it to go lower. Much lower. Much, much lower.

The communists in charge will not disappoint.

A fantastic, once in a lifetime, short opportunity is there for the brave. But long has always been my game.

Don’t have the cash. Thanks though!

Lol!  That’s select. Barely fit for humans. That’s some real shitty poor people cuts.

@vim is ready to eat.

Bears make money, bulls make money, pigs get slaughtered. We’re real damn close to bear market. It’s when bulls and bears make the most money.

Made a bunch of money because the Fed rolled in, cut rates to zero, kicked off trillions in additional QE which was followed up with the largest budget deficits in US history.

Following that same procedure to save the market in a period where we already have 8.5% "official" inflation would be catastrophic

I am, and I am hungry.

I've waited a long time for a setup such as the one that seems to be developing.  I watched the late '70s from the sidelines, but I was just a boy with $0.50 to his name.  But now?  Locked, loaded, and feeling twitchy.  Direct communication with CEOs, and I ask good questions and apparently read unspoken facial responses well.  Ready to execute.  This is my lane.

LFG.

(See, I can talk shit.)  

In my industry. IT/network/data center design I have never been more busy. My entire career.supply chain is making demand that much stronger.

I’ll be long bull on tech. It’s what got me here.

That's the spirit.

"This time it's different." Lulz. I'll make a prediction, the market will go down, then it will go back up. Some people will lose money. Some people will make money. Some will do nothing and it won't affect them at all in the long run. You have a 66% chance of not losing money depending on how you respond.

ETA: when it comes to the market, most things are a gamble. This was not one of those times. It was spray painted on the wall in a deep red.

Same industry and I agree. I had dinner with a CEO of a very popular company in the virtualization space and their strategy and positioning is pretty strong. I believe the term for my investment strategy long term in tech is "balls deep". I just have to survive the next 12 to 24 months...

Thats almost as funny as the crypto "guru" (who had no idea bitcoin has been hacked in the past) who borrowed against his crypto holdings to buy an overpriced "ranch" in texas sight unseen as a bug out place if things hit the fan but would airbnb the place in the interim.  A glorified 50 year old ranch house on a few acres of mostly barren dirt.

We're likely headed back to the pandemic lows in the s&p, which would make a monster double bottom.  Plenty of 10-15% counter rallies along the way, likely one coming up when jpow raises and/or maybe the dollar eases up off its moonshot.  Pedo Joe dont care, he gets his 10% every other week congress sends a few more billions to keeeeeeev.

And housing top is in, probably a 50%+ decline in the frothiest markets coming up over the next 4-5 years based on case-shiller analysis.  We get a stock bubble like we saw in 2000 combined with a RE bubble like the mid 2000s bursting at the same time.  

That's unfortunate because tech is precisely the overvalued, unprofitable dogshit that is going to get slaughtered by higher rates, with the exception of a few names that actually generate profits and don't require cheap credit to continue kicking the can.

I'm willing to switch horses, but you gotta go with what you know.  I was in the 802 group (voting member of a number of dots), and that was a fascinating place to be.  Plenty of strong predictors for future success, if you had the eyes.

You finally got an SBLOC now that I mentioned it? I'm assuming SOFR plus 250bps?

Yes, been busy and frankly I never needed the credit as I have other lines. Now I do, or at least really want it now that taxes wiped me clean out of cash.  Plus it’s a great backup credit line.

Just getting process started, don’t know what rate is based off of. But it was attractive at 3.5

I did actually ask about a margin loan. He said “sure we can give you one, but it’s not what you want and is really only used for short term trading/investing. Like a few months time frame or even shorter.

One thing good advisors do is keep you from doing something stupid.

Not much off hour trading going on, but up a little bit from earlier.  Looks like tomorrow is either going to be pretty flat or another dive.

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Not sure how accurate this is but thought it was interesting

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I don’t even pay attention to the Dow.  Only a fool does.

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This feels really different than the 2009 recession at least for me. In 2009, unemployment was very high, even most fast food places weren't hiring, so any kind of job was hard to get, good paying jobs were nearly impossible to get. But the dollar was a lot more valuable. Almost everything except for gasoline was very cheap because no one had any money. Houses were selling for a steal. For pretty much everything, supply was high and demand was low (probably because people were broke from being unemployed and couldn't buy much).I actually did quite well during the last recession because my job at the time involved inexpensive fuel efficient economy cars and those were still selling very well while more expensive luxury car and truck sales were way down

What's going on this time though is not so good for me personally. My wages aren't keeping up with this inflation, so I'm working a lot more hours to have a lot less money than Ive ever had.

We’re not in bear so he’s full of shit.

Nasdaq is.

2023. Got out on the top and buying bonds soon, but not yet. Bought more commodities as I sold the top of stocks.

The government wasn't elected, isn't legitimate. Communists, criminals and perverts are running the show. They cling to power, cheat, and won't be voted out.

And people think the stock market will get back to normal? LOL!

This IS the new normal!

And the stock market is the least of our problems.

You likely aren't alone.  The Fed's monthly Consumer Credit Report came out yesterday and the consumer debt load increased rather drastically.  I wonder how many folks are trying to maintain their standard of living by charging every day expenses and only paying the minimum balance on their cards.

https://www.federalreserve.gov/Releases/g19/current/

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The whole article's worth a read, bull, bear, whatever.  Data is good.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-trader-state-market-bleed-lower-lows-interrupted-occasion-vicious-short-squeezes

Don't let this get you down.
Keep your head up and never look back.
When the going gets tough, the tough get going.
Full speed ahead, damn the torpedoes.
It's darkest before the dawn.

Okay, I feel better now and I am ready to buy some stock Monday!


Maybe

Well, tomorrow is Monday.

Index futures are down, metal futures are down, crypto is down, US dollar is up -- to me, it looks like a move to cash.

Dunno how the day ends, but the opening should be interesting.

Everything is GREAT!



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Predicting macroeconomics is challenging, to say the least. My gut feel is maybe around spring or summer 2022, but not later than 2023.

Elon Musk  (@elonmusk) December 30, 2021

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What is going on now is a wanton destruction of American wealth and prosperity by a deranged political party.

In financial history, this has never happened before. Stock market corrections, crashes and pull backs have happened, but they were never desired.

Inflation, high energy & food prices, shortages, illegal immigration, etc. have never been desired either.

Now, all this economic destruction IS desired, and celebrated by the left. Pocahontas, AOC and plenty of others are giddy with joy, as the capitalist ship they despise takes on water.

Dark days ahead.

Well that 4k support doesn't seem too strong. We'll see if she can close over it today..

Yep. Back in 08-09 there was deflation. Almost everything was getting cheaper and cheaper by the day. There was NO work to be found. I first noticed it with sail boats, the bottom fell out of the larger sail boats and they where dam near giving them away. Luxury items got so cheap so fast it was shocking. About the same time, layoffs everywhere, and then companies going under. I was a developer/general contractor that mostly worked my own projects, so I was buying tools and materals. I was paying $35 for a porta band or hole hawg or roto hammer. $15-20 for a normal drill or smaller power tool $50 for a power trowel, I filled a large shop with these cheap tools and materials (one deal, I bought everything to plumb 2 houses for $300 things where crazy cheap). Talking all name brand good tools. About then stocks crashed, the fed started pumping money in, and poof. NO more cheap tools or killer deals. At the time, no work anywhere and almost everyone I knew was working for cash under the table just trying to survive.

This time. EVERYTHING is expensive as hell and going up and up by the day. There is work and jobs EVERYWHERE. Luxury items have gone though the roof and people have looked for places to park money.

I am wondering if as this crash plays out, if we are going to see the deflation and same cycle we saw last time. I think we will. There was some stuff I was reading from Janet Yellen, and some people from the fed. Basically to my simple mind saying. They think there is to much money in the system right now (because they printed it and passed most of it out to there friends, aka big banks). So they are going to try and delete as much of that money as they can. So there goal is to crash the equity market, and the RE market, to delete a bunch of money (Isn't that nice, print money give it to super rich friends, then to "fix it" wipe out the middle classes retirement, and the most valuable thing they own, there home, and inflate away any savings they have, oh that whole "you will have nothing") . BUT as soon as the big banks start to get in trouble or if they start to see prices start to fall at the consumer level (that deflation we saw in 08-09) they are going to start pumping money back into the system, but extra scary part, they where saying that they though the problem last time was they didn't inject the money fast enough, so they are going to inject money into the banks even faster and larger this time.....

I have been following this, cause I saw the winds change in about Dec last year, and pulled almost all my money out of the market, and have just been going manic squirrel waiting to buy back into the market. I think the sign to buy back in is going to be when they start injecting money again. BUT I think they will keep that quiet to us regular fokes.

New number?

Spot on. Only one thing. It isn't JUST the destruction of American Wealth. They are doing it world wide. It's really genius and diabolical. Back in 08 they printed and passed out around 30 Trillion into the at the time 600 billion money supply. Lop off zeros to make it easier to think about. They injected 30 dollars into a 60 cent money supply. Gasp people are shocked we have inflation. I am shocked it isn't worse and didn't happen MUCH MUCH faster. They then realized those chickens where going to come home to roost. So they printed another ???? somewhere between 110-150 Trillion it's a closely guarded number they won't tell.  And they gave that out to the other nations of the world at a rate and amounts that would blow up and inflate there respective countries WORSE than us hear at home, so we would still end up on top as the best looking horse in the glue factory. So it went from a US problem, to a WORLD problem.

The part that pisses me off to NO end. Is, this was all done so that super rich gamblers that where big political contributors, made some bad bets and where going to go bankrupt. And by god, we will crash the world and wipe out the middle class of the world before we will let our rich friends lose ANY money.  That's how this all started. It's a good thing to remember, when you think about what actions they are going to take. #1 priority will ALWAYS be there super rich friends running the BIG banks.

Spidey is right in that the market SHOULD be booming right now. Things are stronger than I have ever seen. So much demand for everything it's insane. I am at home sick right now, but last 3 weeks been working 90-100hrs a week. Things are NUTS. This is all artificial. We don't have anything close to a free market. Right now they WANT a crash, so they are going to MAKE a crash. They want to wipe out every ones 401s. Politically un able to just take them, so when they want to remove money from the system, that is the money they are going to remove. Cause it isn't there's or there friends. It's a feature not a bug. Force people to work longer.

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Fake demand fueled by fake money?

When the free money dries up how long will it take for things to grind to a halt?

I think that's what we are watching RIGHT now....