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Posted: 3/3/2021 6:30:48 PM EDT
[#1]
I hope housing prices collapse into the shitter so I can finally pick up some land in TN for a future retirement compound.
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Posted: 3/3/2021 6:31:45 PM EDT
[#2]
So what are some strategies to ride this out if you only have a house payment, but are otherwise free of debt?
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USA
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Posted: 3/3/2021 6:33:42 PM EDT
[#3]
Wanna bet?
More likely we se one of the biggest economic booms we have experienced in some time. A new renaissance in many American cities. Reopening about to strike 100%. Crash? No, I doubt it. |
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Posted: 3/3/2021 6:35:03 PM EDT
[#4]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By dpm12: Wanna bet? More likely we se one of the biggest economic booms we have experienced in some time. A new renaissance in many American cities. Reopening about to strike 100%. Crash? No, I doubt it. riiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiight |
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Posted: 3/3/2021 6:48:39 PM EDT
[#5]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Frank_B: A couple of economic gurus were sharing their views on Fox Business News this morning. Stocks GTG for the next 6 months or so, then buckle up for a wild ride. Well they were optimistic... |
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Posted: 3/3/2021 6:57:20 PM EDT
[#6]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AngryNagant: I'm banking on it. Hoping to scoop up a lakeside retirement home for cheap. Bought our first house after the 08 crash.   TC |
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Posted: 3/3/2021 6:58:33 PM EDT
[Last Edit: spidey07]
[#7]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By dpm12: Wanna bet? More likely we se one of the biggest economic booms we have experienced in some time. A new renaissance in many American cities. Reopening about to strike 100%. Crash? No, I doubt it. Yep. All indicators are continued growth. Strong growth. . The doomers have been predicting the same shit for so long and time and time again so wrong it’s just so fucking tiresome. |
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Posted: 3/3/2021 7:08:25 PM EDT
[#8]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Seph: Been saying this for over a year now and everyone seemed to think another crash was impossible |
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Posted: 3/3/2021 7:10:10 PM EDT
[#9]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By spidey07: Yep. All indicators are continued growth. Strong growth. . The doomers have been predicting the same shit for so long and time and time again so wrong it’s just so fucking tiresome. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By spidey07: Originally Posted By dpm12: Wanna bet? More likely we se one of the biggest economic booms we have experienced in some time. A new renaissance in many American cities. Reopening about to strike 100%. Crash? No, I doubt it. Yep. All indicators are continued growth. Strong growth. . The doomers have been predicting the same shit for so long and time and time again so wrong it’s just so fucking tiresome. Green New Deal? Doubt it will have the impact they like to claim it will... |
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Posted: 3/3/2021 7:10:36 PM EDT
[#10]
We should probably get familiar with this in theory and in practice.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Modern_Monetary_Theory The most interesting is how they plan to balance unlimited printing, with unlimited taxation. There’s no point in arguing whether it’s morally right or materially effective. I can’t decide if the Fed controls the media and therefore the government, or if it’s the other way round. Who ever it is, they will be calling the shots for the determinable future. Plan accordingly. |
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Posted: 3/3/2021 7:14:37 PM EDT
[#11]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By jjrockbush: I'm pretty sure saying it for over a year doesn't count as "calling it". Yeah, agree And for the record...my prediction is we see the start of the crash by April (increased Market volatility...even though it’s pretty freaking high right now). Not sure how long it will take but it could be several weeks or a couple months. I think we’re going to have talks of a bailout by end of summer |
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Posted: 3/3/2021 7:22:08 PM EDT
[#12]
We are due for one!
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Posted: 3/3/2021 7:24:16 PM EDT
[#13]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Fooboy: Bitcoin!!!! Ada! |
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MI, USA
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Posted: 3/3/2021 7:25:14 PM EDT
[#14]
I believe you are correct, and it's going to be worse than any recession/depression the world has ever seen. And the worst part? It was intentional. Welcome to the Great Reset.
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Posted: 3/3/2021 7:28:29 PM EDT
[#15]
Trying to find the video of the guy that is saying 90% correction...lmao....JFC we are all going to be in the soup lines. Over 200-250 Trillion global loss. All I can say is make sure you aren't loaded down with debt.....If it really is that big of a correction....nobody is going to print 51 Trillion to back stop the Market...They will let it ride.
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PA, USA
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Posted: 3/3/2021 7:30:31 PM EDT
[Last Edit: LarryLove]
[#16]
....
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Posted: 3/3/2021 7:47:18 PM EDT
[#17]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By safe1: This guy has an interesting take: Chicago Mercantile Exchange dudes might take it in the shorts. Literally.  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VwXLRoAw3Z4I think there’s a bunch of UI that have done exactly this. |
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Posted: 3/3/2021 7:49:26 PM EDT
[#18]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By spidey07: Wages are absolutely going up. Bull Shit. |
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Posted: 3/3/2021 7:51:03 PM EDT
[Last Edit: spidey07]
[#19]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Devildog1970: I believe you are correct, and it's going to be worse than any recession/depression the world has ever seen. And the worst part? It was intentional. Welcome to the Great Reset. Lol. Consumer confidence is high, consumer spending exceeding expectations, most companies beating estimates. All during a fucking pandemic and shutdown. Demand is fucking strong. |
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Posted: 3/3/2021 8:02:07 PM EDT
[#20]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By spidey07: Lol. Consumer confidence is high, consumer spending exceeding expectations, most companies beating estimates. All during a fucking pandemic and shutdown. Demand is fucking strong. I'm sure Credit Card companies are raking in the interest right now as people are loaded with CC debt. What happens when they can't afford to pay off that debt? |
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MI, USA
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Posted: 3/3/2021 8:11:43 PM EDT
[#21]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By ben123: I don’t believe a crash will happen. That implies the dollar will have more buying power. I expect the opposite, mortgages to go up and cost of living to to go up You have to realize that the debts are mostly frozen right now. If that demand for dollars gets turned on the marginal buyer in the market(retail) will disappear and shit will get really spooky when passive investing has nobody left to sell to. |
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Posted: 3/3/2021 8:12:56 PM EDT
[Last Edit: spidey07]
[#22]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By FOX184: I'm sure Credit Card companies are raking in the interest right now as people are loaded with CC debt. What happens when they can't afford to pay off that debt? Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By FOX184: Originally Posted By spidey07: Lol. Consumer confidence is high, consumer spending exceeding expectations, most companies beating estimates. All during a fucking pandemic and shutdown. Demand is fucking strong. I'm sure Credit Card companies are raking in the interest right now as people are loaded with CC debt. What happens when they can't afford to pay off that debt? Lol! Yeah because consumers have so much credit card debt the demand for homes is through the roof as are new housing starts. Your point makes zero sense and not based in reality. And with prime rate so low the interest they do pay on those balances is at historic lows. The shutdowns actually put more money into consumers hands, and they’re spending it. It’s what they do. |
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Posted: 3/3/2021 8:13:53 PM EDT
[Last Edit: 999monkeys]
[#23]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Devildog1970: I believe you are correct, and it's going to be worse than any recession/depression the world has ever seen. And the worst part? It was intentional. Welcome to the Great Reset. Agree that it will happen. Disagree that it was intentional. It's the result of monetary policy since 2008. We artificially propped up asset prices and made the eventual pain exponentially worse. It's like putting out every small fire in the forest. Small fires are healthy. If the underbrush does not get cleared out by small fires, a large fire eventually happens that destroys the whole forest. Or to use an example that the Arfcom Flu Bros will love... It's like killing all of the natural predators of deer and banning hunting. Then there is overpopulation and a disease rips through the deer and destroys the whole herd. |
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FL, USA
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Posted: 3/3/2021 8:14:18 PM EDT
[#24]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By TheOtherDave: How did we solve the last Depression? We went to war. Is it really a surprise we are seeing Iran stepping out of line with Drone and missile attacks that are hard to prove they did it? Been an awful, awful lot of talk in the last few days about their nuclear program and noncompliance and how they are meddling in syria and how we and the Israelis are starting to engage them militarily. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By TheOtherDave: Originally Posted By tbonifie: Crash? Sure. Bailout? Not sure what they can do that isn't already being done in that regard... have you seen the last three "stimulus" bills. They are attempting to bail out everything. It's not going to work the way they think (or maybe that's actually the plan? <- more likely, IMO). How did we solve the last Depression? We went to war. Is it really a surprise we are seeing Iran stepping out of line with Drone and missile attacks that are hard to prove they did it? Been an awful, awful lot of talk in the last few days about their nuclear program and noncompliance and how they are meddling in syria and how we and the Israelis are starting to engage them militarily. the war fixing the economy is one of the greatest myths of all time, nobody talks about the huge stock market crash at the end of the war which completely disproves this point. what stopped the great depression was the death of Roosevelt and the end of his socialist interference with the economy. |
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GA, USA
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Posted: 3/3/2021 8:22:40 PM EDT
[#25]
im not seeing it, minus a cataclysm, like a meteor strike, or covid goes 50 percent kill rate and gets more infectious or china invades taiwan.
look for bubbles, bubbles that underpin a major part of the economy. the last bad one in 2008 was obvious. i was building houses as a side biz and it was obvious that more money was being lent and ridiculous rates with little or no vetting and that lots of folks were getting mortgages that they would not be able to repay. and i've seen other real estate bubbles, folks investing in land and taking large loans in the 70s. and everyone jumping into the dotcom market pre 2000. the great depression had a lot to do with banks loaning folks money to dabble in the stock market and with no federal reserve insurance, once the folks couldnt pay their loans back, the banks went under and if you had your money in the bank, it was gone. i dont see a bubble like that now. but i can guarantee there will be one sooner or later. i just dont see one now. find me a bubble (and not crypto because though its a craze, its not all consuming). |
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Posted: 3/3/2021 8:26:27 PM EDT
[Last Edit: 999monkeys]
[#26]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By st0newall: im not seeing it, minus a cataclysm, like a meteor strike, or covid goes 50 percent kill rate and gets more infectious or china invades taiwan. look for bubbles, bubbles that underpin a major part of the economy. the last bad one in 2008 was obvious. i was building houses as a side biz and it was obvious that more money was being lent and ridiculous rates with little or no vetting and that lots of folks were getting mortgages that they would not be able to repay. and i've seen other real estate bubbles, folks investing in land and taking large loans in the 70s. and everyone jumping into the dotcom market pre 2000. the great depression had a lot to do with banks loaning folks money to dabble in the stock market and with no federal reserve insurance, once the folks couldnt pay their loans back, the banks went under and if you had your money in the bank, it was gone. i dont see a bubble like that now. but i can guarantee there will be one sooner or later. i just dont see one now. find me a bubble (and not crypto because though its a craze, its not all consuming). Have you missed the parabolic rise in the Nasdaq, and many other asset classes?  Attached File |
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KS, USA
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Posted: 3/3/2021 8:41:03 PM EDT
[Last Edit: merick]
[#27]
 Failed To Load Title Market can absolutely take a 25% shit in a day, because it did in 1984. It took 25 years for the Dow to recover from 1929. The nekkei is still below its 1989 peak. |
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Posted: 3/3/2021 8:45:21 PM EDT
[#28]
Poor little Bulls will squeal like pigs when it blows up and demand more bail outs. What the pea brains don't realize is the bail outs from 2008 put us here today.
I fully expect Dow 7K and below. |
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Posted: 3/3/2021 8:58:32 PM EDT
[#29]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By macman37: I believe OP is correct. |
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Posted: 3/3/2021 8:59:06 PM EDT
[#30]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By CVO: Poor little Bulls will squeal like pigs when it blows up and demand more bail outs. What the pea brains don't realize is the bail outs from 2008 put us here today. I fully expect Dow 7K and below. The bailout starting in 1991 which was the Fed continuing to lower interest rates to this day caused 2008 and will cause a bigger thump sometime in the future. Just don't know when. |
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Posted: 3/3/2021 9:01:58 PM EDT
[#31]
I don't know what to believe in these days when it comes to the economy or housing for that matter. My place in Las Vegas is now worth 3x more than I payed for it in 2011. My BIL is a real estate agent there and the term "sellers market" is not exaggerated especially for homes in the $200-300k+ range.
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GA, USA
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Posted: 3/3/2021 9:04:04 PM EDT
[#32]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By 999monkeys: Have you missed the parabolic rise in the Nasdaq, and many other asset classes? https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/284150/nasdaq_jpg-1850180.JPG yes. but i dont see that as a bubble. if i go out and take a 2nd mortgage on my home and max credit cards and buy stocks, thats a bubble. it folks buying things on credit that they will never be able to pay back and once it collapses all kinds of things go along with the crash. stocks are overvalued. yes. oversold (probably) but is there a lot of credit, consumer and commercial borrowing that can never be repaid? i dont see it. i see folks paying more for some stocks than they are worth. but not a bubble. also, as things recover from covid, i expect things to get better. eventually though things will overheat and there will be a bubble. |
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Posted: 3/3/2021 9:14:10 PM EDT
[#33]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By callgood:  and after the crash..........Weimar hyperinflation FTW! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h3EU29IcFE020% of all US dollars in worldwide circulation were "printed" last year. Fortunately, for the moment, velocity is low. https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/60489/debtVgdpVvel_png-1850003.JPG I think the velocity is low because the majority of that printed money doesn’t go to people who will spend it . It’s going to banks and they’re sitting on it |
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Posted: 3/3/2021 9:18:11 PM EDT
[#34]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By spidey07: Wages are absolutely going up. Really? I haven't noticed. Unless you're talking about C-Suite fucks. Even if they are rising, it's not enough to make a damn bit of difference for most of the population |
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Posted: 3/3/2021 9:38:51 PM EDT
[#35]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By BillofRights: You’re going to be frightened and terribly disappointed the day you find out about all the money they made. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By BillofRights: Originally Posted By AngryNagant: I'm banking on it. Hoping to scoop up a lakeside retirement home for cheap. Bought our first house after the 08 crash. You’re going to be frightened and terribly disappointed the day you find out about all the money they made. Lake houses are pretty much the last houses to be affected. In the county I live in, there are about 3,000 lake houses in a population of half a million people. There is no undeveloped shoreline left. People that can afford one are rarely affected by economic downturns. I had no issue holding on to mine in 08. |
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Posted: 3/3/2021 9:50:41 PM EDT
[Last Edit: spidey07]
[#36]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By M82Assault: Really? I haven't noticed. Unless you're talking about C-Suite fucks. Even if they are rising, it's not enough to make a damn bit of difference for most of the population Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By M82Assault: Originally Posted By spidey07: Wages are absolutely going up. Really? I haven't noticed. Unless you're talking about C-Suite fucks. Even if they are rising, it's not enough to make a damn bit of difference for most of the population Then why is consumer confidence and spending so strong? So strong the demand for new houses is out of this world? Most companies beating estimates? In the middle of pandemic. That should tell you something about demand. Your most of the population statement is flat out wrong and not based in reality. Just like every doomer the last decade, it’s the shit tinted glasses you guys wear that’s the problem and that rests solely upon the doomer. |
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Posted: 3/3/2021 9:57:36 PM EDT
[#37]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By st0newall: yes. but i dont see that as a bubble. if i go out and take a 2nd mortgage on my home and max credit cards and buy stocks, thats a bubble. it folks buying things on credit that they will never be able to pay back and once it collapses all kinds of things go along with the crash. stocks are overvalued. yes. oversold (probably) but is there a lot of credit, consumer and commercial borrowing that can never be repaid? i dont see it. i see folks paying more for some stocks than they are worth. but not a bubble. also, as things recover from covid, i expect things to get better. eventually though things will overheat and there will be a bubble. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By st0newall: Originally Posted By 999monkeys: Have you missed the parabolic rise in the Nasdaq, and many other asset classes? https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/284150/nasdaq_jpg-1850180.JPG yes. but i dont see that as a bubble. if i go out and take a 2nd mortgage on my home and max credit cards and buy stocks, thats a bubble. it folks buying things on credit that they will never be able to pay back and once it collapses all kinds of things go along with the crash. stocks are overvalued. yes. oversold (probably) but is there a lot of credit, consumer and commercial borrowing that can never be repaid? i dont see it. i see folks paying more for some stocks than they are worth. but not a bubble. also, as things recover from covid, i expect things to get better. eventually though things will overheat and there will be a bubble. |
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VT, USA
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Posted: 3/3/2021 10:01:36 PM EDT
[#38]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By spidey07: Wages are absolutely going up. Where and are they hiring? |
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JPN
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Posted: 3/3/2021 10:04:18 PM EDT
[#39]
A crack up boom is the failure that will happen. Those that keep inflating not only the money supply but credit and insurance, it goes on, until it goes to insanity levels IE Trillions of dollars and un realized hundreds of trillions of dollars are just gone while the interest rates go nuts the market goes nuts, and the central banl keeps papering over everything and it all comes crashing down to a massive correction, then the pump and dump, crashes again, etc.
Its a giant casino and most of us are not allowed win. |
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Posted: 3/3/2021 10:05:42 PM EDT
[#40]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By spidey07: Lol! Yeah because consumers have so much credit card debt the demand for homes is through the roof as are new housing starts. Your point makes zero sense and not based in reality. And with prime rate so low the interest they do pay on those balances is at historic lows. The shutdowns actually put more money into consumers hands, and they’re spending it. It’s what they do. I suggest you do a bit of research before piping off. Americans as a whole are leveraged up to their necks in debt and the majority have shitty credit scores so they aren't getting those "historically low" interest rates. |
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Posted: 3/3/2021 10:05:49 PM EDT
[#41]
No point in trying to call tops and bottoms. Diversification is the only free lunch. Have a assets that will perform during a boom, bust, and everything in between.
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Posted: 3/3/2021 10:07:00 PM EDT
[#42]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Lou_Daks: You sound very young. I have lived through several real estate cycles where the price of RE dropped significantly, and sometimes for several years. Example: I bought a house in a nice neighborhood, desirable region, in 1989. It was just off the market peak, and it kept falling until my home was valued at about $220k, down from the $280k sales price (the "peak" price was 290-300). By my math, that's a decline of roughly 20-25%. It took 3-4 years to climb back up to the original sales price. I'm not saying it's going to happen again now, but 1989 wasn't exactly in the Pleistocene. Have you lived through a currency collapse? We're not talking about normal RE cycles anymore. Historically, RE cycles last 7 years. This one is on year 13. Something bigger is happening here. |
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Posted: 3/3/2021 10:12:56 PM EDT
[#43]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By FOX184: I suggest you do a bit of research before piping off. Americans as a whole are leveraged up to their necks in debt and the majority have shitty credit scores so they aren't getting those "historically low" interest rates. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By FOX184: Originally Posted By spidey07: Lol! Yeah because consumers have so much credit card debt the demand for homes is through the roof as are new housing starts. Your point makes zero sense and not based in reality. And with prime rate so low the interest they do pay on those balances is at historic lows. The shutdowns actually put more money into consumers hands, and they’re spending it. It’s what they do. I suggest you do a bit of research before piping off. Americans as a whole are leveraged up to their necks in debt and the majority have shitty credit scores so they aren't getting those "historically low" interest rates. Again. Then why is consumer confidence so high? Why is demand so high for homes? How does a credit score impact credit card rates that are based on prime? Are you confusing prime rate with mortgage rates? Your post makes no sense in reality. |
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Posted: 3/3/2021 10:13:09 PM EDT
[#44]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By M82Assault: Really? I haven't noticed. Unless you're talking about C-Suite fucks. Even if they are rising, it's not enough to make a damn bit of difference for most of the population Income is up 10%...in one month. https://www.morningstar.com/news/dow-jones/2021022612368/us-personal-income-up-10-in-january-spending-up-24-3rd-update If that's not a wakeup call I don't know what is. |
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Posted: 3/3/2021 10:16:45 PM EDT
[Last Edit: buck19delta]
[#45]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By dpm12: Wanna bet? More likely we se one of the biggest economic booms we have experienced in some time. A new renaissance in many American cities. Reopening about to strike 100%. Crash? No, I doubt it. Nothing assures confidence in businesses spending money, and expanding as a unpredictable, random, strict tidal wave of new democrat laws, regs, rules, fines etc based of feelings, diversity, climate change , trade rules based on kick backs, religion, etc. . Same as when obama was in office, but 100x worse. Their green laws, new restrictions on business, energy, fuel, transportation, etc will make business scared as shit to expand, invest, etc. |
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Posted: 3/3/2021 10:17:27 PM EDT
[#46]
Michael Burry, is that you?
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Posted: 3/3/2021 10:21:47 PM EDT
[#47]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By JoeJeeps: Income is up 10%...in one month. https://www.morningstar.com/news/dow-jones/2021022612368/us-personal-income-up-10-in-january-spending-up-24-3rd-update If that's not a wakeup call I don't know what is. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By JoeJeeps: Originally Posted By M82Assault: Really? I haven't noticed. Unless you're talking about C-Suite fucks. Even if they are rising, it's not enough to make a damn bit of difference for most of the population Income is up 10%...in one month. https://www.morningstar.com/news/dow-jones/2021022612368/us-personal-income-up-10-in-january-spending-up-24-3rd-update If that's not a wakeup call I don't know what is. Reading is really fucking hard.  Attached File |
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ID, USA
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Posted: 3/3/2021 10:22:38 PM EDT
[#48]
A Home of our size here in Idaho is now going for $900,000 in our area. We paid $189,000 for ours in 2013. WTF.
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Posted: 3/3/2021 10:23:58 PM EDT
[#49]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By spidey07: Again. Then why is consumer confidence so high? Why is demand so high for homes? How does a credit score impact credit card rates that are based on prime? Are you confusing prime rate with mortgage rates? Your post makes no sense in reality. If you don't have good credit, then people will not get the lowest interest rates. The banks are still lending money to these folks though to buy homes, cars, and whatever else. What happened in 08 will happen again as the banks are lending to people they shouldn't be lending to. These people will also be upside down on their mortgages when all this comes crumbling down. People are putting themselves into huge amounts of debt because they are allowed to. It is unsustainable. |
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Posted: 3/3/2021 10:24:52 PM EDT
[#50]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By TZLVredmist: A Home of our size here in Idaho is now going for $900,000 in our area. We paid $189,000 for ours in 2013. WTF. Sell that shit and buy doge coin. |
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