User Panel
User Panel
User Panel
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Posted: 1/25/2021 2:14:24 PM EDT
[#1]
Guessed? Sure. No one has ever actually estimated it based on actual evidence. Really the only thing we know is that life originated here on Earth. If it hadn't, no one would be around to ask the question, so it's just as likely that the actual answer is 0 or 1 depending on how you define "intelligent". It's like trying to find the slope and intercept of a line without any information other than a single point.
It's fun to dump speculative numbers into the Drake Equation, but it's meaningless other than that. Oh and by the way, the universe and time is not infinite. I saw several people post that it was. |
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Posted: 1/25/2021 2:17:00 PM EDT
[#2]
Quote HistoryQuoted: The evidence simply shows that, to date, humans have failed to create life from non living components. No more no less. Any of the thousands of experiments could be one missing factor from success, or doomed to failure because the occurrence they are attempting to replicate is impossible. It is not valid to draw conclusions from the absence of information. It is completely valid to draw conclusions from the absence of info until contrary info comes along. We do it all the time. Example: The sun will rise tomorrow. How do I know that? Well, based on the fact that the sun has always risen tomorrow, and it has always failed not to rise tomorrow. That may change some day. Until it does, I'm going with the sun will rise tomorrow. YMMV. Once again, see my previous posts. At no time have I said ET is unpossible. I feel like the Mean Man who tells little kids that the Easter Bunny doesn't exist, and that Santa isn't coming down the chimney with a bag of toys for them. And I kinda like the feeling. |
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Posted: 1/25/2021 2:19:00 PM EDT
[#3]
Quote HistoryQuoted: What happens at 197? Inquiring minds want to know. unfortunately, though 197 showed promise, they developed rap music too early in their prehistory (on earth, it would be equivalent to the early pleistocene) and quickly faded without attaining "civilization" status. |
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Posted: 1/25/2021 2:22:54 PM EDT
[#4]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Wait... how the fuck did we get from the poster's thread title asking if someone to have estimated the number of advanced civilizations in the universe... to someone having to show evidence/proof? Lotta shit in history has been estimated without proof? Clearly the only way to arrive at anything beyond a wild guess is to have some data to work with. The demand for proof is simply a demand for some, no ANY, data on the subject that could help in formulating an estimate. I can't give you a point on a plane and have you estimate the slope of the line can I? Even if I gave you two data points, you couldn't be sure the solution was a line at all, but at least it gives you SOMETHING to work with. |
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Posted: 1/25/2021 2:26:45 PM EDT
[#5]
Quote HistoryQuoted: It really is a relevant issue. In order to provide an estimate, one needs to have sufficient data. The problem here is that there is no data to utilize, so there can't be any estimates. Clearly the only way to arrive at anything beyond a wild guess is to have some data to work with. The demand for proof is simply a demand for some, no ANY, data on the subject that could help in formulating an estimate. I can't give you a point on a plane and have you estimate the slope of the line can I? Even if I gave you two data points, you couldn't be sure the solution was a line at all, but at least it gives you SOMETHING to work with. Correct. Even two data points on a plane say nothing about the slope of the plane. You need three points for that, and they must not form a single line. (In the erf sciences, we call that a "three point problem".) |
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Posted: 1/25/2021 2:27:52 PM EDT
[#6]
Yes, I estimated the number at 177.
I used Bayes's Theorem to do this (I guessed, using the math that was in my head, but unknown to me). |
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Posted: 1/25/2021 2:32:05 PM EDT
[#7]
Quote HistoryQuoted: It is completely valid to draw conclusions from the absence of info until contrary info comes along. We do it all the time. Example: The sun will rise tomorrow. How do I know that? Well, based on the fact that the sun has always risen tomorrow, and it has always failed not to rise tomorrow. That may change some day. Until it does, I'm going with the sun will rise tomorrow. YMMV. Once again, see my previous posts. At no time have I said ET is unpossible. I feel like the Mean Man who tells little kids that the Easter Bunny doesn't exist, and that Santa isn't coming down the chimney with a bag of toys for them. And I kinda like the feeling. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: The evidence simply shows that, to date, humans have failed to create life from non living components. No more no less. Any of the thousands of experiments could be one missing factor from success, or doomed to failure because the occurrence they are attempting to replicate is impossible. It is not valid to draw conclusions from the absence of information. It is completely valid to draw conclusions from the absence of info until contrary info comes along. We do it all the time. Example: The sun will rise tomorrow. How do I know that? Well, based on the fact that the sun has always risen tomorrow, and it has always failed not to rise tomorrow. That may change some day. Until it does, I'm going with the sun will rise tomorrow. YMMV. Once again, see my previous posts. At no time have I said ET is unpossible. I feel like the Mean Man who tells little kids that the Easter Bunny doesn't exist, and that Santa isn't coming down the chimney with a bag of toys for them. And I kinda like the feeling. You don’t know that the sun will rise tomorrow. You don’t have any information that indicates it won’t rise tomorrow. You could constrain your model to known information and make a guess as to the likelihood of the sun rising tomorrow, but you can’t do any better than that. Same goes for life across the universe, except the tiny sliver of information we can build a model from is even smaller relative to reality. Drawing any conclusions in either case is invalid. |
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Posted: 1/25/2021 2:33:51 PM EDT
[#8]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Guessed? Sure. No one has ever actually estimated it based on actual evidence. Really the only thing we know is that life originated here on Earth. If it hadn't, no one would be around to ask the question, so it's just as likely that the actual answer is 0 or 1 depending on how you define "intelligent". It's like trying to find the slope and intercept of a line without any information other than a single point. It's fun to dump speculative numbers into the Drake Equation, but it's meaningless other than that. Oh and by the way, the universe and time is not infinite. I saw several people post that it was. The question whether the universe is infinite is really interesting. I believe, with zero evidence, that space is infinite, but that matter within the space is finite. Why? Assuming all matter originated with a big-bang-type of event, and that matter is expanding, it is reasonable to assume it has a leading edge beyond which there is no matter. But I digress. |
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Posted: 1/25/2021 2:34:37 PM EDT
[#9]
Quote HistoryQuoted: You don’t know that the sun will rise tomorrow. You don’t have any information that indicates it won’t rise tomorrow. You could constrain your model to known information and make a guess as to the likelihood of the sun rising tomorrow, but you can’t do any better than that. Same goes for life across the universe, except the tiny sliver of information we can build a model from is even smaller relative to reality. Drawing any conclusions in either case is invalid. Stick a fork in an electrical outlet. Just because it worked yesterday doesn’t mean it is working today. You don’t know what will happen. |
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Posted: 1/25/2021 2:36:12 PM EDT
[#10]
Quote HistoryQuoted: You don’t know that the sun will rise tomorrow. You don’t have any information that indicates it won’t rise tomorrow. You could constrain your model to known information and make a guess as to the likelihood of the sun rising tomorrow, but you can’t do any better than that. Same goes for life across the universe, except the tiny sliver of information we can build a model from is even smaller relative to reality. Drawing any conclusions in either case is invalid. Based on everything we know about planetary physics, the sun will rise tomorrow. This is what we call "evidence" in the scientific world. What do you call it in your world? What evidence do you have to the contrary? |
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Posted: 1/25/2021 2:37:04 PM EDT
[#11]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Stick a fork in an electrical outlet. Just because it worked yesterday doesn’t mean it is working today. You don’t know what will happen. He should push the fork in with his tongue. Just to test the theory. |
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Posted: 1/25/2021 2:46:18 PM EDT
[#12]
We don't have enough data to even guess this within several orders of magnitude.
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Posted: 1/25/2021 2:59:45 PM EDT
[#13]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Based on everything we know about planetary physics, the sun will rise tomorrow. This is what we call "evidence" in the scientific world. What do you call it in your world? What evidence do you have to the contrary? Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: You don’t know that the sun will rise tomorrow. You don’t have any information that indicates it won’t rise tomorrow. You could constrain your model to known information and make a guess as to the likelihood of the sun rising tomorrow, but you can’t do any better than that. Same goes for life across the universe, except the tiny sliver of information we can build a model from is even smaller relative to reality. Drawing any conclusions in either case is invalid. Based on everything we know about planetary physics, the sun will rise tomorrow. This is what we call "evidence" in the scientific world. What do you call it in your world? What evidence do you have to the contrary? Based on everything we know = constrain your model to known information. Everything we know = tiny sliver of information. When we cannot accurately model reality, we cannot draw factual conclusions. We can only make guesses. Will a black hole swing through and eat our solar system tonight? How likely would you say that was, based on the position and velocity of all the black holes in existence? Are black holes even possible? They’ve never been replicated in a laboratory. Don’t be a pseudoscientist. |
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Posted: 1/25/2021 3:02:39 PM EDT
[#14]
Quote HistoryQuoted: The question whether the universe is infinite is really interesting. I believe, with zero evidence, that space is infinite, but that matter within the space is finite. Why? Assuming all matter originated with a big-bang-type of event, and that matter is expanding, it is reasonable to assume it has a leading edge beyond which there is no matter. But I digress. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Guessed? Sure. No one has ever actually estimated it based on actual evidence. Really the only thing we know is that life originated here on Earth. If it hadn't, no one would be around to ask the question, so it's just as likely that the actual answer is 0 or 1 depending on how you define "intelligent". It's like trying to find the slope and intercept of a line without any information other than a single point. It's fun to dump speculative numbers into the Drake Equation, but it's meaningless other than that. Oh and by the way, the universe and time is not infinite. I saw several people post that it was. The question whether the universe is infinite is really interesting. I believe, with zero evidence, that space is infinite, but that matter within the space is finite. Why? Assuming all matter originated with a big-bang-type of event, and that matter is expanding, it is reasonable to assume it has a leading edge beyond which there is no matter. But I digress. Theoretically of course the expansion of the universe may be unlimited, assuming there is nothing to stop its expansion. However if by "universe" we mean an area that has energy and time in multiple dimensions, then I would theorize that such an expanse isn't a part of the universe at all. I'm just an educated lay person, so I might not have a good grasp on the accuracy of what I'm saying. 
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Posted: 1/25/2021 3:11:44 PM EDT
[#15]
Quote HistoryQuoted: 100 billion stars in just the Milky Way Galaxy. “Intelligent” life exists here. 100% confirmed. Even if we somehow happen to be 1 in 100,000,000,000, how many more galaxies are there? How many more stars in those? My opinion is there is not a single chance we are the only ones. Are you sure our civilization qualifies as intellect life? If we had the ability to travel star distances, then they would look at us as savages. |
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Posted: 1/25/2021 3:15:54 PM EDT
[#16]
LO
Quote HistoryQuoted: Based on everything we know = constrain your model to known information. Everything we know = tiny sliver of information. When we cannot accurately model reality, we cannot draw factual conclusions. We can only make guesses. Will a black hole swing through and eat our solar system tonight? How likely would you say that was, based on the position and velocity of all the black holes in existence? Are black holes even possible? They’ve never been replicated in a laboratory. Don’t be a pseudoscientist. LOL. Black holes are theorized based on observable phenomena, such as the bending of light around them, and no discernable light emitted from them. Have we created them in a lab? No. But we make direct observations of them, and describe our observations as "black holes." There is no such observation of ET phenomena. You know how we know you have no scientific background? Your posts, that's how. Stop trying to hijack the thread with stupidity. Let's deal with the OP title, shall we? |
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Posted: 1/25/2021 3:18:16 PM EDT
[#17]
Quote HistoryQuoted: If the Big Bang contributed all of the energy to the universe as well, then that means that even the energy bubble is finite in size. The energy bubble would be larger than the matter bubble, for sure. In the absence of energy and matter would time be a factor at all, and would it be part of the universe? Theoretically of course the expansion of the universe may be unlimited, assuming there is nothing to stop its expansion. However if by "universe" we mean an area that has energy and time in multiple dimensions, then I would theorize that such an expanse isn't a part of the universe at all. I'm just an educated lay person, so I might not have a good grasp on the accuracy of what I'm saying. Possibly correct, but energy is not necessary for empty space to exist. And empty space is part of the universe, at least by my definition. |
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Posted: 1/25/2021 3:31:47 PM EDT
[#18]
Insufficient data.
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Posted: 1/25/2021 3:32:28 PM EDT
[#19]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Two TRILLION + galaxies and we’re the only intelligent life in 13 billion years, . That is all we know right now. Anything else is conjecture that is not based upon facts. It may very well be that in an finite universe that the elements to produce life only came together one time on one planet with a very unique set of circumstances. When we look out into space now all we really see is a sterile universe that seems to be very hostile to life. Until we get another data point anything we think is nothing more than wishful thinking. Wishful thinking that has been tainted with 100 years of science fiction brainwashing. Hell, if we want to see aliens from another planet all we have to do is turn on the TV and do a little channel surfing. We won't have to go very far to see them. We can see Cpt Kirk star trekking across the universe screwing pretty blue alien chicks. There must be life out there, right? |
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Posted: 1/25/2021 3:35:43 PM EDT
[#20]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Two months later, Harvard University astronomy professor Harlow Shapley speculated on the number of inhabited planets in the universe, saying "The universe has 10 million, million, million suns (10 followed by 18 zeros) similar to our own. One in a million has planets around it. Only one in a million million has the right combination of chemicals, temperature, water, days and nights to support planetary life as we know it. Jeez, what a Douchebag that Harlow Shapley must have been. He just made that shit up outa thin air. Absolutely! The key word is "speculated". Nothing based upon facts. |
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Posted: 1/25/2021 3:37:52 PM EDT
[#21]
Quote HistoryQuoted: That is all we know right now. Anything else is conjecture that is not based upon facts. It may very well be that in an finite universe that the elements to produce life only came together one time on one planet with a very unique set of circumstances. When we look out into space now all we really see is a sterile universe that seems to be very hostile to life. Until we get another data point anything we think is nothing more than wishful thinking. Wishful thinking that has been tainted with 100 years of science fiction brainwashing. Hell, if we want to aliens from another planet all we have to do is turn on the TV and do a little channel surfing. We won't have to go very far to see them. We can see Cpt Kirk star trekking across the universe screwing pretty blue alien chicks. There must be life out there, right? Yes x 87. See my previous post. The media has indoctrinated weak minds with the idea that ET must exist because movies and TV and sci-fi books. Nevermind evidence, which is so yesterday. Why? Follow the money trail. How much $ has been made on aliens? Gazillions, that's how much. BTW green alien chicks are way hotter than the blue ones. And three boobies? Oh lawdy. That's 50% moar boobies! |
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Posted: 1/25/2021 3:42:53 PM EDT
[#22]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Insufficient data. |
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Posted: 1/25/2021 3:45:00 PM EDT
[#23]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I the absence of information I neither believe nor disbelieve. So in this case I would not be certain that life can spontaneously develop from non living components, and I would also not be certain that life could not spontaneously develop from non living components. One of the most compelling facts is after so many decades of high level research we can't create life in a test tube. We don't know how to magically turn chemistry into biology. If we haven't figure it out by now because it is a lot more complicated than we can possible imagine. It is not just on a planet in the Goldilocks Zone with water, a few organic chemicals and a bolt of lightning. If it was then every Jr High school science class would be creating it as a classroom lab assignment. |
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Posted: 1/25/2021 3:50:46 PM EDT
[#24]
Quote HistoryQuoted: One of the most compelling facts is after so many decades of high level research we can't create life in a test tube. We don't know how to magically turn chemistry into biology. If we haven't figure it out by now because it is a lot more complicated than we can possible imagine. It is not just on a planet in the Goldilocks Zone with water, a few organic chemicals and a bolt of lightning. If it was then every Jr High school science class would be creating it as a classroom lab assignment. True. I have made this point in several posts. We DO know now that a significant number of GDers never had junior high science classes. University science classes? Fuggedaboudit. |
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Posted: 1/25/2021 4:16:57 PM EDT
[#25]
Quote HistoryQuoted: One of the most compelling facts is after so many decades of high level research we can't create life in a test tube. We don't know how to magically turn chemistry into biology. If we haven't figure it out by now because it is a lot more complicated than we can possible imagine. It is not just on a planet in the Goldilocks Zone with water, a few organic chemicals and a bolt of lightning. If it was then every Jr High school science class would be creating it as a classroom lab assignment. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: I the absence of information I neither believe nor disbelieve. So in this case I would not be certain that life can spontaneously develop from non living components, and I would also not be certain that life could not spontaneously develop from non living components. One of the most compelling facts is after so many decades of high level research we can't create life in a test tube. We don't know how to magically turn chemistry into biology. If we haven't figure it out by now because it is a lot more complicated than we can possible imagine. It is not just on a planet in the Goldilocks Zone with water, a few organic chemicals and a bolt of lightning. If it was then every Jr High school science class would be creating it as a classroom lab assignment. You could further extend that into the realm of multiverses, if you think those are a possibility. Could be that the specific laws that govern our universe, make the formation of "life" very rare. In other universes, it may not even exist or be more plentiful. |
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Posted: 1/25/2021 4:55:54 PM EDT
[#26]
Quote HistoryQuoted: LO LOL. Black holes are theorized based on observable phenomena, such as the bending of light around them, and no discernable light emitted from them. Have we created them in a lab? No. But we make direct observations of them, and describe our observations as "black holes." There is no such observation of ET phenomena. You know how we know you have no scientific background? Your posts, that's how. Stop trying to hijack the thread with stupidity. Let's deal with the OP title, shall we? Quote HistoryQuoted: LO Quoted: Based on everything we know = constrain your model to known information. Everything we know = tiny sliver of information. When we cannot accurately model reality, we cannot draw factual conclusions. We can only make guesses. Will a black hole swing through and eat our solar system tonight? How likely would you say that was, based on the position and velocity of all the black holes in existence? Are black holes even possible? They’ve never been replicated in a laboratory. Don’t be a pseudoscientist. LOL. Black holes are theorized based on observable phenomena, such as the bending of light around them, and no discernable light emitted from them. Have we created them in a lab? No. But we make direct observations of them, and describe our observations as "black holes." There is no such observation of ET phenomena. You know how we know you have no scientific background? Your posts, that's how. Stop trying to hijack the thread with stupidity. Let's deal with the OP title, shall we? Continuous ad hominem attacks. Why not argue the point? You (and everyone) have zero conclusive evidence proving or disproving spontaneous origin of life on earth or elsewhere. You can’t claim the current failure to reproduce spontaneous origin of life is a preponderance of evidence against it, even if that were a valid way to proceed with the subject. |
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Posted: 1/25/2021 7:32:27 PM EDT
[#27]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Continuous ad hominem attacks. Why not argue the point? You (and everyone) have zero conclusive evidence proving or disproving spontaneous origin of life on earth or elsewhere. You can’t claim the current failure to reproduce spontaneous origin of life is a preponderance of evidence against it, even if that were a valid way to proceed with the subject. "Stop being a pseudoscientist." Who wrote that? Would that qualify as ad hominem? I will stack my scientific credentials up against yours any day of the week. Twice on Sunday. |
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Posted: 1/25/2021 7:51:58 PM EDT
[#28]
Quote HistoryQuoted: "Stop being a pseudoscientist." Who wrote that? Would that qualify as ad hominem? I will stack my scientific credentials up against yours any day of the week. Twice on Sunday. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Continuous ad hominem attacks. Why not argue the point? You (and everyone) have zero conclusive evidence proving or disproving spontaneous origin of life on earth or elsewhere. You can’t claim the current failure to reproduce spontaneous origin of life is a preponderance of evidence against it, even if that were a valid way to proceed with the subject. "Stop being a pseudoscientist." Who wrote that? Would that qualify as ad hominem? I will stack my scientific credentials up against yours any day of the week. Twice on Sunday. Then do what scientists do and link us some peer reviewed papers corroborating your claims. Surely some of them were authored by you (you don’t have to tell us which ones if you don’t want to). |
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Posted: 1/25/2021 8:28:15 PM EDT
[#29]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Then do what scientists do and link us some peer reviewed papers corroborating your claims. Surely some of them were authored by you (you don’t have to tell us which ones if you don’t want to). Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Quoted: Continuous ad hominem attacks. Why not argue the point? You (and everyone) have zero conclusive evidence proving or disproving spontaneous origin of life on earth or elsewhere. You can’t claim the current failure to reproduce spontaneous origin of life is a preponderance of evidence against it, even if that were a valid way to proceed with the subject. "Stop being a pseudoscientist." Who wrote that? Would that qualify as ad hominem? I will stack my scientific credentials up against yours any day of the week. Twice on Sunday. Then do what scientists do and link us some peer reviewed papers corroborating your claims. Surely some of them were authored by you (you don’t have to tell us which ones if you don’t want to). 
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Posted: 1/25/2021 9:09:54 PM EDT
[#30]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Then do what scientists do and link us some peer reviewed papers corroborating your claims. Surely some of them were authored by you (you don’t have to tell us which ones if you don’t want to). LOL. Yeah, like I owe you that. But I might. First, you must provide the following: A shred of evidence that ET exists, for which you'll receive a free PMag. How could you resist such a generous offer? A shred of evidence that you have any scientific background whatsoever. A shred of evidence that you're not a recent product of the publik ejukashun system, incl. your age and where you growed up. A shred of evidence that anything I have posted is incongruous with the current state of knowledge regarding the existence of ET. These should be easy for you, right? BTW, I published two annual technical reports regarding the state-of-the-state conditions within my field of expertise for many years, which were each reviewed by a committee of experts. Plus a few "one-off" reports that shook some foundations. I have two degrees from a world-famous univ., plus numerous post-grad courses. I had a more-than-three decade career in the sciences, and was appointed as a technical expert by a court that has continuing jurisdiction over legal matters in my field of expertise. I testified to that court and was the technical expert - "special master" - on matters before the court. I retired with a public commendation by a board of commissioners of an org whose interests I represented. I have since been subpoenaed and deposed as an expert over related matters. Will that suffice? I should add that my field is somewhat sorta kinda tangentially related to the subject we're discussing here. Not directly, of course, but it's as much detail as I wish to provide. What have you done? |
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Posted: 1/25/2021 9:19:27 PM EDT
[#31]
Quote HistoryQuoted: LOL. Yeah, like I owe you that. But I might. First, you must provide the following: A shred of evidence that ET exists, for which you'll receive a free PMag. How could you resist such a generous offer? A shred of evidence that you have any scientific background whatsoever. A shred of evidence that you're not a recent product of the publik ejukashun system, incl. your age and where you growed up. A shred of evidence that anything I have posted is incongruous with the current state of knowledge regarding the existence of ET. These should be easy for you, right? BTW, I published two annual technical reports regarding the state-of-the-state conditions within my field of expertise for many years, which were each reviewed by a committee of experts. Plus a few "one-off" reports that shook some foundations. I have two degrees from a world-famous univ., plus numerous post-grad courses. I had a more-than-three decade career in the sciences, and was appointed as a technical expert by a court that has continuing jurisdiction over legal matters in my field of expertise. I testified to that court and was the technical expert - "special master" - on matters before the court. I retired with a public commendation by a board of commissioners of an org whose interests I represented. I have since been subpoenaed and deposed as an expert over related matters. Will that suffice? I should add that my field is somewhat sorta kinda tangentially related to the subject we're discussing here. Not directly, of course, but it's as much detail as I wish to provide. What have you done? Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Then do what scientists do and link us some peer reviewed papers corroborating your claims. Surely some of them were authored by you (you don’t have to tell us which ones if you don’t want to). LOL. Yeah, like I owe you that. But I might. First, you must provide the following: A shred of evidence that ET exists, for which you'll receive a free PMag. How could you resist such a generous offer? A shred of evidence that you have any scientific background whatsoever. A shred of evidence that you're not a recent product of the publik ejukashun system, incl. your age and where you growed up. A shred of evidence that anything I have posted is incongruous with the current state of knowledge regarding the existence of ET. These should be easy for you, right? BTW, I published two annual technical reports regarding the state-of-the-state conditions within my field of expertise for many years, which were each reviewed by a committee of experts. Plus a few "one-off" reports that shook some foundations. I have two degrees from a world-famous univ., plus numerous post-grad courses. I had a more-than-three decade career in the sciences, and was appointed as a technical expert by a court that has continuing jurisdiction over legal matters in my field of expertise. I testified to that court and was the technical expert - "special master" - on matters before the court. I retired with a public commendation by a board of commissioners of an org whose interests I represented. I have since been subpoenaed and deposed as an expert over related matters. Will that suffice? I should add that my field is somewhat sorta kinda tangentially related to the subject we're discussing here. Not directly, of course, but it's as much detail as I wish to provide. What have you done? What the fuck did you just fucking say about me, you little bitch? I'll have you know I graduated top of my class in the Navy Seals, and I've been involved in numerous secret raids on Al-Quaeda, and I have over 300 confirmed kills. I am trained in gorilla warfare and I'm the top sniper in the entire US armed forces. You are nothing to me but just another target. I will wipe you the fuck out with precision the likes of which has never been seen before on this Earth, mark my fucking words. You think you can get away with saying that shit to me over the Internet? Think again, fucker. As we speak I am contacting my secret network of spies across the USA and your IP is being traced right now so you better prepare for the storm, maggot. The storm that wipes out the pathetic little thing you call your life. You're fucking dead, kid. I can be anywhere, anytime, and I can kill you in over seven hundred ways, and that's just with my bare hands. Not only am I extensively trained in unarmed combat, but I have access to the entire arsenal of the United States Marine Corps and I will use it to its full extent to wipe your miserable ass off the face of the continent, you little shit. If only you could have known what unholy retribution your little "clever" comment was about to bring down upon you, maybe you would have held your fucking tongue. But you couldn't, you didn't, and now you're paying the price, you goddamn idiot. I will shit fury all over you and you will drown in it. You're fucking dead, kiddo. Remember you asked for it. 
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Posted: 1/25/2021 9:23:35 PM EDT
[#32]
Quote HistoryQuoted: LOL. Yeah, like I owe you that. But I might. First, you must provide the following: A shred of evidence that ET exists, for which you'll receive a free PMag. How could you resist such a generous offer? A shred of evidence that you have any scientific background whatsoever. A shred of evidence that you're not a recent product of the publik ejukashun system, incl. your age and where you growed up. A shred of evidence that anything I have posted is incongruous with the current state of knowledge regarding the existence of ET. These should be easy for you, right? BTW, I published two annual technical reports regarding the state-of-the-state conditions within my field of expertise for many years, which were each reviewed by a committee of experts. Plus a few "one-off" reports that shook some foundations. I have two degrees from a world-famous univ., plus numerous post-grad courses. I had a more-than-three decade career in the sciences, and was appointed as a technical expert by a court that has continuing jurisdiction over legal matters in my field of expertise. I testified to that court and was the technical expert - "special master" - on matters before the court. I retired with a public commendation by a board of commissioners of an org whose interests I represented. I have since been subpoenaed and deposed as an expert over related matters. Will that suffice? I should add that my field is somewhat sorta kinda tangentially related to the subject we're discussing here. Not directly, of course, but it's as much detail as I wish to provide. What have you done? Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Then do what scientists do and link us some peer reviewed papers corroborating your claims. Surely some of them were authored by you (you don’t have to tell us which ones if you don’t want to). LOL. Yeah, like I owe you that. But I might. First, you must provide the following: A shred of evidence that ET exists, for which you'll receive a free PMag. How could you resist such a generous offer? A shred of evidence that you have any scientific background whatsoever. A shred of evidence that you're not a recent product of the publik ejukashun system, incl. your age and where you growed up. A shred of evidence that anything I have posted is incongruous with the current state of knowledge regarding the existence of ET. These should be easy for you, right? BTW, I published two annual technical reports regarding the state-of-the-state conditions within my field of expertise for many years, which were each reviewed by a committee of experts. Plus a few "one-off" reports that shook some foundations. I have two degrees from a world-famous univ., plus numerous post-grad courses. I had a more-than-three decade career in the sciences, and was appointed as a technical expert by a court that has continuing jurisdiction over legal matters in my field of expertise. I testified to that court and was the technical expert - "special master" - on matters before the court. I retired with a public commendation by a board of commissioners of an org whose interests I represented. I have since been subpoenaed and deposed as an expert over related matters. Will that suffice? I should add that my field is somewhat sorta kinda tangentially related to the subject we're discussing here. Not directly, of course, but it's as much detail as I wish to provide. What have you done? That’s a lot of words to dodge a simple request, even for a scientist. |
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Posted: 1/25/2021 9:50:22 PM EDT
[#33]
Quote HistoryQuoted: What the fuck did you just fucking say about me, you little bitch? I'll have you know I graduated top of my class in the Navy Seals, and I've been involved in numerous secret raids on Al-Quaeda, and I have over 300 confirmed kills. I am trained in gorilla warfare and I'm the top sniper in the entire US armed forces. You are nothing to me but just another target. I will wipe you the fuck out with precision the likes of which has never been seen before on this Earth, mark my fucking words. You think you can get away with saying that shit to me over the Internet? Think again, fucker. As we speak I am contacting my secret network of spies across the USA and your IP is being traced right now so you better prepare for the storm, maggot. The storm that wipes out the pathetic little thing you call your life. You're fucking dead, kid. I can be anywhere, anytime, and I can kill you in over seven hundred ways, and that's just with my bare hands. Not only am I extensively trained in unarmed combat, but I have access to the entire arsenal of the United States Marine Corps and I will use it to its full extent to wipe your miserable ass off the face of the continent, you little shit. If only you could have known what unholy retribution your little "clever" comment was about to bring down upon you, maybe you would have held your fucking tongue. But you couldn't, you didn't, and now you're paying the price, you goddamn idiot. I will shit fury all over you and you will drown in it. You're fucking dead, kiddo. Remember you asked for it.  |
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Posted: 1/25/2021 9:53:07 PM EDT
[#34]
Quote HistoryQuoted: That’s a lot of words to dodge a simple request, even for a scientist. Oh yeah, I did all that well before reaching 50, then I went on to a shorter career in a related field before retiring. What have you done with your life, sonny boy? Give us a hint. Just so we know you're even in the same ballpark as actual scientists. |
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Posted: 1/25/2021 10:18:26 PM EDT
[#35]
"Attention all passengers aboard the intergalactic cruise ship Barada Nikto. This is Captain Klaatu speaking. Please tune your holographic visual displays to standard electromagnetic emission channel 87 as we pass in the vicinity of that little blue planet on the starboard side. In doing so you'll be able to witness, in real time, a phenomenon our scientists who study primitive cultures refer to as the "internet dick measuring contest".
Thank you for choosing Kanamit spaceways." |
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Posted: 1/25/2021 10:20:25 PM EDT
[#36]
Quote HistoryQuoted: "Attention all passengers aboard the intergalactic cruise ship Barada Nikto. This is Captain Klaatu speaking. Please tune your holographic visual displays to standard electromagnetic emission channel 87 as we pass in the vicinity of that little blue planet on the starboard side. In doing so you'll be able to witness, in real time, a phenomenon our scientists who study primitive cultures refer to as the "internet dick measuring contest". Thank you for choosing Kanamit spaceways." It's not a contest unless both sides play.
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Posted: 1/25/2021 10:25:52 PM EDT
[#37]
Quote HistoryQuoted: "Stop being a pseudoscientist." Who wrote that? Would that qualify as ad hominem? I will stack my scientific credentials up against yours any day of the week. Twice on Sunday. You are showing a lot of pride. Check yourself. Nick |
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Posted: 1/25/2021 10:31:06 PM EDT
[#38]
Quote HistoryQuoted: For someone that 1. Proclaims to be a Christian, and 2. Proclaims to be the smartest man in the room, you have done nothing but insult and belittle everyone that has disagreed with you. You are showing a lot of pride. Check yourself. Nick Not the smartest man in the room, but I know how the scientific method works. What are your qualifications? Lots of ET religious followers here. Are you one? |
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Posted: 1/25/2021 11:25:37 PM EDT
[#39]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Oh yeah, I did all that well before reaching 50, then I went on to a shorter career in a related field before retiring. What have you done with your life, sonny boy? Give us a hint. Just so we know you're even in the same ballpark as actual scientists. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: That’s a lot of words to dodge a simple request, even for a scientist. Oh yeah, I did all that well before reaching 50, then I went on to a shorter career in a related field before retiring. What have you done with your life, sonny boy? Give us a hint. Just so we know you're even in the same ballpark as actual scientists. Still waiting for a link. Just one link. Surely you have a paper kicking around in your big scientist brain you could share with us little brains. |
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Posted: 1/25/2021 11:30:47 PM EDT
[#40]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Still waiting for a link. Just one link. Surely you have a paper kicking around in your big scientist brain you could share with us little brains. I do. The link is active (I just checked) and it is read by a lot of technical and non-technical people alike for info. that is highly relevant today. The problem is, I was a one-man show so you would know who I am immediately. There is only one person at a time that does what I did. Persec and all that... |
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Posted: 1/25/2021 11:35:05 PM EDT
[#41]
My estimate is there are, have been, will be innumerable instances of life elsewhere. If it can happen once, it can happen twice. It doesn’t really matter much though, because we are stuck in our bubble crowding each other out and plotting to kill each other endlessly. Hopefully the exploratory branch of technology can outpace feudalism and self destruction and get our species out into the wide “world” of space.
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Posted: 1/25/2021 11:40:10 PM EDT
[#42]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I do. The link is active (I just checked) and it is read by a lot of technical and non-technical people alike for info. that is highly relevant today. The problem is, I was a one-man show so you would know who I am immediately. There is only one person at a time that does what I did. Persec and all that... Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Still waiting for a link. Just one link. Surely you have a paper kicking around in your big scientist brain you could share with us little brains. I do. The link is active (I just checked) and it is read by a lot of technical and non-technical people alike for info. that is highly relevant today. The problem is, I was a one-man show so you would know who I am immediately. There is only one person at a time that does what I did. Persec and all that... That’s pretty convenient. I guess you, solely, wrote the seminal (and only?) paper in the field of ET estimating? And it’s well known and awesome, but we won’t be able to find it. And you can’t share a different paper, because there aren’t any? Does your girlfriend live in Canada? Have you ever owned a strip club? |
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Posted: 1/25/2021 11:43:35 PM EDT
[#43]
Quote HistoryQuoted: The Drake equation is a thing. It's based upon some pretty unsupportable assumptions. We have a sample size of 1 planet with life on it. Of any kind, let alone with a civilization on it. It could well be that we are literally the only intelligent (debatable) life that has yet existed in the universe. Or it could be that intelligent life is incredibly common. We really don't have enough information to even make informed guesses, yet. |
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Posted: 1/25/2021 11:45:58 PM EDT
[#44]
Quote HistoryQuoted: That’s pretty convenient. I guess you, solely, wrote the seminal (and only?) paper in the field of ET estimating? And it’s well known and awesome, but we won’t be able to find it. And you can’t share a different paper, because there aren’t any? Does your girlfriend live in Canada? Have you ever owned a strip club? Not at all. I am not an ET estimator. But I know what the science says and I know quite a bit about planetary physics and earth science. I have made no statements that aren't completely congruous with the observable facts. If I had, you would cite them. You have provided no evidence that you have an inkling how the scientific method works. You call yourself a "JavaEng", which I assume is shorthand for Engineer, yet we see no evidence that you practice logic, which is required in the engineering field. It's your turn now: what are your qualifications? |
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Posted: 1/25/2021 11:49:02 PM EDT
[#45]
Quote HistoryQuoted: One of the most compelling facts is after so many decades of high level research we can't create life in a test tube. We don't know how to magically turn chemistry into biology. If we haven't figure it out by now because it is a lot more complicated than we can possible imagine. It is not just on a planet in the Goldilocks Zone with water, a few organic chemicals and a bolt of lightning. If it was then every Jr High school science class would be creating it as a classroom lab assignment. This. Then consider that for the vast majority of life on earth, it was stuck as extremely simple bacteria with very little evolution happening. It could be that the conditions for life to arise at all are vanishingly rare. It could be that the conditions for life to evolve into anything beyond bacteria are equally rare. I hope that both are the case. I really hope we are, for practical purposes, alone in the universe. |
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Posted: 1/25/2021 11:50:41 PM EDT
[#46]
Quote HistoryQuoted: It's based upon some pretty unsupportable assumptions. We have a sample size of 1 planet with life on it. Of any kind, let alone with a civilization on it. It could well be that we are literally the only intelligent (debatable) life that has yet existed in the universe. Or it could be that intelligent life is incredibly common. We really don't have enough information to even make informed guesses, yet. This is correct. We could be the very first, the very last, or among a multitude. There is no data to support any of those. None. Not a scrap. Not a smidge. Zilch. Nada. Zip. Zero. So far, we are all alone. And in a practical sense, even if there are a multitude, we'll never know. Meaning, we are alone and will always be alone. That's a scary feeling for some people. It robs them of their comfort blankey and their dreams. Welp, sorry about that. Science be like that. It doesn't give a rat's ass about feelz. |
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Posted: 1/25/2021 11:53:10 PM EDT
[#47]
Quote HistoryQuoted: This. Then consider that for the vast majority of life on earth, it was stuck as extremely simple bacteria with very little evolution happening. It could be that the conditions for life to arise at all are vanishingly rare. It could be that the conditions for life to evolve into anything beyond bacteria are equally rare. I hope that both are the case. I really hope we are, for practical purposes, alone in the universe. Or, it could be evidence of a Creator. That's my religious belief. And I'm honest enough to admit it. If I was dishonest, I could create an equivalent Drake's equation to "prove" the existence of God. But that's not how I roll. |
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Posted: 1/25/2021 11:55:08 PM EDT
[#48]
Quote HistoryQuoted: My estimate is there are, have been, will be innumerable instances of life elsewhere. If it can happen once, it can happen twice. It doesn’t really matter much though, because we are stuck in our bubble crowding each other out and plotting to kill each other endlessly. Hopefully the exploratory branch of technology can outpace feudalism and self destruction and get our species out into the wide “world” of space. cool thought, until you realize that if life is easy to create ("innumerable" as you put it), than the billions and billions of years preceding us, you'd have a galaxy full of different species and colonies, almost overflowing the limited resources in the galaxy. but instead, we hear/see/detect nothing... hmmm Like the video I posted earlier from some newb hack named Sean Carroll commenting on the matter, a reasonable mind would think that either life happens regularly with billions of independent life coming about on it's own, or zero. with that in mind, you almost have to treat life on Earth as a mistake that made it through all the cracks perfectly. the extremely rare condition, that wasn't supposed to happen, but it did. for some reason, it seems to be a scary though for most (that it could only be us in the universe). |
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Posted: 1/25/2021 11:59:40 PM EDT
[#49]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Or, it could be evidence of a Creator. That's my religious belief. And I'm honest enough to admit it. If I was dishonest, I could create an equivalent Drake's equation to "prove" the existence of God. But that's not how I roll. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: This. Then consider that for the vast majority of life on earth, it was stuck as extremely simple bacteria with very little evolution happening. It could be that the conditions for life to arise at all are vanishingly rare. It could be that the conditions for life to evolve into anything beyond bacteria are equally rare. I hope that both are the case. I really hope we are, for practical purposes, alone in the universe. Or, it could be evidence of a Creator. That's my religious belief. And I'm honest enough to admit it. If I was dishonest, I could create an equivalent Drake's equation to "prove" the existence of God. But that's not how I roll. After all that BS about being the world’s best scientist you admit you’re a creationist here to crap on an interesting discussion. Why though? Why not just ignore this discussion if it covers ideas incompatible with your belief system? Also just one paper. |
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Posted: 1/26/2021 12:01:34 AM EDT
[#50]
Quote HistoryQuoted: cool thought, until you realize that if life is easy to create ("innumerable" as you put it), than the billions and billions of years proceeding us, you'd have a galaxy full of different species and colonies, almost overflowing the limited resources in the galaxy. but instead, we hear/see/detect nothing... hmmm Like the video I posted earlier from some newb hack named Sean Carroll commenting on the matter, a reasonable mind would think that either life happens regularly with billions of independent life coming about on it's own, or zero. with that in mind, you almost have to treat life on Earth as a mistake that made it through all the cracks perfectly. the extremely rare condition, that wasn't supposed to happen, but it did. for some reason, it seems to be a scary though for most (that it could only be us in the universe). "You can't handle the truth!" Not you, but "you". Seriously, some people just can't handle the observable facts. It's a problem for us as a species. Did you know there are people who think that men and women are the same, that men menstruate, and give birth? And that men who cut their genitals off are women? True story. |
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