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Quoted: GME is dramatically undervalued at the ~$340 it is currently trading at. Its true value is Citadel's marginal ability to pay to stay in business. Or, the FED's willingness to print away Citadel's failure to prevent counter-party contagion. That pain point hasn't been reached yet. The rest of the things being traded are mostly pump and dumps. GME is now a financial singularity with no clear way out. View Quote @Katanasword or other knowledgeable people. What happens if the firm(citadel) simply oversold the short positions and cant cover the stock ? How does the investor who bought options at say 20 bucks a share get paid when share price is 300 a share at the deadline? Can hedgefund people go to FPMITA prison? (federal time, even club fed with martha stewart) |
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Quoted: @Katanasword or other knowledgeable people. What happens if the firm(citadel) simply oversold the short positions and cant cover the stock ? How does the investor who bought options at say 20 bucks a share get paid when share price is 300 a share at the deadline? Can hedgefund people go to FPMITA prison? (federal time, even club fed with martha stewart) View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted: Quoted: GME is dramatically undervalued at the ~$340 it is currently trading at. Its true value is Citadel's marginal ability to pay to stay in business. Or, the FED's willingness to print away Citadel's failure to prevent counter-party contagion. That pain point hasn't been reached yet. The rest of the things being traded are mostly pump and dumps. GME is now a financial singularity with no clear way out. @Katanasword or other knowledgeable people. What happens if the firm(citadel) simply oversold the short positions and cant cover the stock ? How does the investor who bought options at say 20 bucks a share get paid when share price is 300 a share at the deadline? Can hedgefund people go to FPMITA prison? (federal time, even club fed with martha stewart) That's half of the thing, yeah. The other half is who else on wall street is short this, and bought call options from Citadel as insurance against their bet going bad? How far will the contagion of a second financial black swan in less than a year spread? Counter-party risk is a big elephant in this room. (Disclosure note, I bought a bunch of VIX calls at close.) |
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Quoted: @Katanasword or other knowledgeable people. What happens if the firm(citadel) simply oversold the short positions and cant cover the stock ? How does the investor who bought options at say 20 bucks a share get paid when share price is 300 a share at the deadline? Can hedgefund people go to FPMITA prison? (federal time, even club fed with martha stewart) View Quote Think Lehman Brothers and Bear Stearns. |
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Wall Street In PANIC MODE, Trading On GameStop And AMC Halted As Plebs NUKE Elite's Hedge Funds |
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Quoted: No, that's the interesting part. This isn't a pump and dump. It's an externality of over-leveraged short and options positions being exposed to tail risk. GME is a financial singularity now. That doesn't mean you should put money in it. I don't think anyone gets paid out of this, since no-one on the other side of the trade can afford to pay... View Quote The people getting paid will be the ones shorting it when it collapses. Someone out there is big enough to make a killing off the collapse of gme. Could even be the folks who initiated the squeeze. Beyond that I'm not convinced of the uniqueness of gme at the moment. Retail investors are going to get nervous, and there won't be enough new money flowing into support the price. But who knows, we haven't had a good bubble pop in a while. |
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Quoted: No, that's the interesting part. This isn't a pump and dump. It's an externality of over-leveraged short and options positions being exposed to tail risk. GME is a financial singularity now. That doesn't mean you should put money in it. I don't think anyone gets paid out of this, since no-one on the other side of the trade can afford to pay... View Quote I'm not sure what the endgame is. But I can see holders get wiped out because no one can pay them. |
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Quoted: In all seriousness, that's not just picking a fight with Melvin. That's fighting The Fed, the large banks and the govt View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted: Quoted: My body is ready. Please, oh please. |
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The fallout from this will be epic.
Expect SEC to ban retail trading. You won't be able to own stocks except through a mutual fund. |
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Quoted: No, that's the interesting part. This isn't a pump and dump. It's an externality of over-leveraged short and options positions being exposed to tail risk. GME is a financial singularity now. That doesn't mean you should put money in it. I don't think anyone gets paid out of this, since no-one on the other side of the trade can afford to pay... View Quote Can a short just walk away in bankruptcy, and be like "sorry, I can't cover...ever"? I'm not sure some of this has ever happened before ETA: Melvin Capital was also short EVTCY. Pumping that one as well . They've got to be done after this |
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Quoted: The people getting paid will be the ones shorting it when it collapses. Someone out there is big enough to make a killing off the collapse of gme. Could even be the folks who initiated the squeeze. Beyond that I'm not convinced of the uniqueness of gme at the moment. Retail investors are going to get nervous, and there won't be enough new money flowing into support the price. But who knows, we haven't had a good bubble pop in a while. View Quote The problem is the options expiring on Friday. If GME doesn't crash by Friday, things burn. There's no way for the shorts to cover at this point. From a supply and demand standpoint, there is demand for substantially more shares of GME than exist, and most of the market participants know that. The price will eventually fall, but only after things are deleveraged, not before. Quoted: I'm not sure what the endgame is. But I can see holders get wiped out because no one can pay them. View Quote Ding ding ding. This is why I took most of my risk off the table and am just running profit. |
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Quoted: Can a short just walk away in bankruptcy, and be like "sorry, I can't cover...ever"? I'm not sure some of this has ever happened before View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted: Quoted: No, that's the interesting part. This isn't a pump and dump. It's an externality of over-leveraged short and options positions being exposed to tail risk. GME is a financial singularity now. That doesn't mean you should put money in it. I don't think anyone gets paid out of this, since no-one on the other side of the trade can afford to pay... Can a short just walk away in bankruptcy, and be like "sorry, I can't cover...ever"? I'm not sure some of this has ever happened before The broker who loaned the share to the short is now on the hook. If they can't pay, I believe it goes to FDIC. |
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Quoted: Can a short just walk away in bankruptcy, and be like "sorry, I can't cover...ever"? I'm not sure some of this has ever happened before ETA: Melvin Capital was also short EVTCY. Pumping that one as well . They've got to be done after this View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted: Quoted: No, that's the interesting part. This isn't a pump and dump. It's an externality of over-leveraged short and options positions being exposed to tail risk. GME is a financial singularity now. That doesn't mean you should put money in it. I don't think anyone gets paid out of this, since no-one on the other side of the trade can afford to pay... Can a short just walk away in bankruptcy, and be like "sorry, I can't cover...ever"? I'm not sure some of this has ever happened before ETA: Melvin Capital was also short EVTCY. Pumping that one as well . They've got to be done after this It’s a Lehman moment. |
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Quoted: The problem is the options expiring on Friday. If GME doesn't crash by Friday, things burn. There's no way for the shorts to cover at this point. From a supply and demand standpoint, there is demand for substantially more shares of GME than exist, and most of the market participants know that. The price will eventually fall, but only after things are deleveraged, not before. Ding ding ding. This is why I took most of my risk off the table and am just running profit. View Quote Just to make sure I'm clear Citadel had no stop losses in place? |
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Quoted: GME is dramatically undervalued at the ~$340 it is currently trading at. Its true value is Citadel's marginal ability to pay to stay in business. Or, the FED's willingness to print away Citadel's failure to prevent counter-party contagion. That pain point hasn't been reached yet. The rest of the things being traded are mostly pump and dumps. GME is now a financial singularity with no clear way out. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: It's unwound a bit but not sane at all still. TD and CS locking down trading is going to be interesting if people are unable to unload their shares. https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/67501/gme1_JPG-1799361.JPG The shorts will keep coming because it is over-valued and someone is going to ride it down at some point and reap a windfall. Hedge funds just can't trigger the fall on this one like they are accustomed to doing. GME is dramatically undervalued at the ~$340 it is currently trading at. Its true value is Citadel's marginal ability to pay to stay in business. Or, the FED's willingness to print away Citadel's failure to prevent counter-party contagion. That pain point hasn't been reached yet. The rest of the things being traded are mostly pump and dumps. GME is now a financial singularity with no clear way out. Of course GME is over-valued, this is an obvious bubble. It's interesting and it's fun, but without reddit pumping the price it never would have gone that high, ever. I hope the folks that eventually lose everything they put into it are fine with it and did it for laughs. If someone is putting real money on the line for the ride up - well, they should have known better what they were getting into. |
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Quoted: The Chamath interview on CNBC today was epic. Staying long. View Quote Chamath Palihapitiya debates CNBC''s Scott Wapner on Gamestop stocks |
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Quoted: Just to make sure I'm clear Citadel had no stop losses in place? View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted: Quoted: The problem is the options expiring on Friday. If GME doesn't crash by Friday, things burn. There's no way for the shorts to cover at this point. From a supply and demand standpoint, there is demand for substantially more shares of GME than exist, and most of the market participants know that. The price will eventually fall, but only after things are deleveraged, not before. Ding ding ding. This is why I took most of my risk off the table and am just running profit. Just to make sure I'm clear Citadel had no stop losses in place? No such thing as stop losses on short sales. They already borrowed the stocks and sold them, now they need to return those stocks, at the market price. Not Citadel, they funded Melvin, which had a large short position on GME. |
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Quoted: Just to make sure I'm clear Citadel had no stop losses in place? View Quote There's no official disclosure of that. But, back of the envelope, there weren't enough shares of GME sold between yesterday and today for them to have hedged gamma risk, assuming they're the majority of the short side of the call contracts. Either way SOMEONE is naked. The entire options chain is in the money... They desperately need the price of GME to come down, and they also can't hedge at this price because they would need to buy more shares than are traded. So, at this point there's no way they can be hedging their risk (the price action reflects this too.) They're swimming naked and praying that the price falls before Friday. This may still unwind somehow without everything blowing up. But I don't know how. Quoted: Of course GME is over-valued, this is an obvious bubble. It's interesting and it's fun, but without reddit pumping the price it never would have gone that high, ever. I hope the folks that eventually lose everything they put into it are fine with it and did it for laughs. If someone is putting real money on the line for the ride up - well, they should have known better what they were getting into. View Quote If I've got something you need so that you don't go out of business, what price are you willing to pay for it? GME was a bubble initially. It collapsed in on itself black hole style. The higher the price goes, the more desperately some major players need to buy it, which drives the price higher in a positive feedback loop. It's going to keep going up until something systematically breaks. NOTE: I AM NOT SAYING THIS IS A GOOD INVESTMENT TO JUMP ON. REGULATORY RISK AND COUNTER-PARTY RISK ARE VERY BIG ISSUES. |
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Quoted: The fallout from this will be epic. Expect SEC to ban retail trading. You won't be able to own stocks except through a mutual fund. View Quote Unlikely, more likely they'll work to redefine with the reddit crew did as some kind of manipulation, so the hedgefunds don't have to pay out. The SEC has clawed back profits before. If this was me sitting on a few million I'd cash out and wire that money some place unreachable by the SEC with a one way plane ticket. |
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I don’t know what’s possible here but I figured GameStop would just create a few million shares, sell to the bigs at .01 and fix the whole thing.
I mean, we are in a corrupt, criminal system now. |
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Quoted: Unlikely, more likely they'll work to redefine with the reddit crew did as some kind of manipulation, so the hedgefunds don't have to pay out. The SEC has clawed back profits before. If this was me sitting on a few million I'd cash out and wire that money some place unreachable by the SEC with a one way plane ticket. View Quote This is the way. |
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Quoted: Unlikely, more likely they'll work to redefine with the reddit crew did as some kind of manipulation, so the hedgefunds don't have to pay out. The SEC has clawed back profits before. If this was me sitting on a few million I'd cash out and wire that money some place unreachable by the SEC with a one way plane ticket. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted: Quoted: The fallout from this will be epic. Expect SEC to ban retail trading. You won't be able to own stocks except through a mutual fund. Unlikely, more likely they'll work to redefine with the reddit crew did as some kind of manipulation, so the hedgefunds don't have to pay out. The SEC has clawed back profits before. If this was me sitting on a few million I'd cash out and wire that money some place unreachable by the SEC with a one way plane ticket. DFV's GME standing goes back over 12 months. This isn't just something that came about out of the blue a couple weeks ago with GME. The his strategy (and risk) has had a great deal of his own research for awhile. People followed in suit |
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Quoted: No such thing as stop losses on short sales. They already borrowed the stocks and sold them, now they need to return those stocks, at the market price. Not Citadel, they funded Melvin, which had a large short position on GME. View Quote Got it, this shit has been difficult to navigate through to good info. I don't do a lot of work with shorting so apologies for the bad term. Look like Melvin closed out their position this morning. |
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Quoted: DFV's GME standing goes back over 12 months. This isn't just something that came about out of the blue a couple weeks ago with GME. The his strategy (and risk) has had a great deal of his own research for awhile. People followed in suit View Quote You think standing has anything to do with this? The supreme court of the united fucking states shat on "standing" just a few weeks ago. lol |
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Quoted: You think standing has anything to do with this? The supreme court of the united fucking states shat on "standing" just a few weeks ago. lol View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted: Quoted: DFV's GME standing goes back over 12 months. This isn't just something that came about out of the blue a couple weeks ago with GME. The his strategy (and risk) has had a great deal of his own research for awhile. People followed in suit You think standing has anything to do with this? The supreme court of the united fucking states shat on "standing" just a few weeks ago. lol Screwing over the little guy, after the little guy has taken it in the ass again and again and the banks always win is best reserved until after they take the guns away. I'm sure they'll do it anyway, but it's real damned dumb. |
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Quoted: Got it, this shit has been difficult to navigate through to good info. I don't do a lot of work with shorting so apologies for the bad term. Look like Melvin closed out their position this morning. View Quote |
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Quoted: I don’t know what’s possible here but I figured GameStop would just create a few million shares, sell to the bigs at .01 and fix the whole thing. I mean, we are in a corrupt, criminal system now. View Quote I think AMC has been doing that, and the HOme Depot founder said Gamestop should make a deal with the short sellers to do what you're saying but at $100 per share. However, I think that opens the company and board up to a shareholder suit for diluting their value. Gamestop is caught in the middle of an epic pissing match. Where regulators need to focus is on allowing one hedge fund to fuck with the market so badly. LTC did the same things in the 90s and required a FED orchestrated bailout to keep from crashing the market. If anything the people shorting this should lose their ass and their ability to ever do it again. |
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So......what online trading houses are you folks using now that several have restricted trades on GME?
Looking at opening an account and dropping about $50K into NOK. |
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Quoted: The people getting paid will be the ones shorting it when it collapses. Someone out there is big enough to make a killing off the collapse of gme. Could even be the folks who initiated the squeeze. Beyond that I'm not convinced of the uniqueness of gme at the moment. Retail investors are going to get nervous, and there won't be enough new money flowing into support the price. But who knows, we haven't had a good bubble pop in a while. View Quote I doubt Melvin has the capital to short it again. Citadel or Citron, maybe. |
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Quoted: So......what online trading houses are you folks using now that several have restricted trades on GME? Looking at opening an account and dropping about $50K into NOK. View Quote I'm using robinhood. Other people I know are using webull. TD Ameritrade and Schwabb apparently weren't letting people make trades on AMC and GME. |
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Quoted: I don’t know what’s possible here but I figured GameStop would just create a few million shares, sell to the bigs at .01 and fix the whole thing. I mean, we are in a corrupt, criminal system now. View Quote Problem is, GME would be bailing out those who were trying to short it out of existence. Does management want to do that? Maybe on balance the extra cash would do more good for them so very possible. I believe per their current filings though they can only raise $100M, which won't cover all the shorts. |
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Quoted: I doubt Melvin has the capital to short it again. Citadel or Citron, maybe. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted: Quoted: The people getting paid will be the ones shorting it when it collapses. Someone out there is big enough to make a killing off the collapse of gme. Could even be the folks who initiated the squeeze. Beyond that I'm not convinced of the uniqueness of gme at the moment. Retail investors are going to get nervous, and there won't be enough new money flowing into support the price. But who knows, we haven't had a good bubble pop in a while. I doubt Melvin has the capital to short it again. Citadel or Citron, maybe. That's the interesting bit that people aren't getting. There was never a short squeeze on GME, there was a gamma squeeze. The short interest is still ~100-140% of float. I think the gamma squeeze trapped Melvin into a short squeeze, and Citadel loaned him money for the margin call so that he wouldn't create a feedback loop trying to unwind it. Then last night it spiked again and outpaced Citadel's ability to hedge. So where we are right now is a stock where (at least) two major firms are badly underwater in their positions, but if they try to unwind their position they go further underwater. No-one is margin calling anyone because a forced liquidation of anyone blows up everyone. And remember, short losses are infinite. Too big to fail. The only way out for any of the major names in this saga is to get the price to fall. The only way for the price to fall is for people to sell the stock, since there are no shares left available to short. But the people who own the stock recognize they have the other side of the trade by the balls, and they want their pound of flesh for it. |
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Quoted: So......what online trading houses are you folks using now that several have restricted trades on GME? Looking at opening an account and dropping about $50K into NOK. View Quote I'm on webull. They seem to have the broadest hours available for trading. https://act.webull.com/nv/3e2z8hUulYFl/edc/inviteUs/ I get a free stock if you join through this link, you don't have to use it. You will also get several free stocks though. The only problem I have with webull is not being able to trade OTC stocks. I plan on opening a TD Ameritrade account for that soon, unless someone has other recommendations. |
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Quoted: There's no official disclosure of that. But, back of the envelope, there weren't enough shares of GME sold between yesterday and today for them to have hedged gamma risk, assuming they're the majority of the short side of the call contracts. Either way SOMEONE is naked. The entire options chain is in the money... They desperately need the price of GME to come down, and they also can't hedge at this price because they would need to buy more shares than are traded. So, at this point there's no way they can be hedging their risk (the price action reflects this too.) They're swimming naked and praying that the price falls before Friday. This may still unwind somehow without everything blowing up. But I don't know how. If I've got something you need so that you don't go out of business, what price are you willing to pay for it? GME was a bubble initially. It collapsed in on itself black hole style. The higher the price goes, the more desperately some major players need to buy it, which drives the price higher in a positive feedback loop. It's going to keep going up until something systematically breaks. NOTE: I AM NOT SAYING THIS IS A GOOD INVESTMENT TO JUMP ON. REGULATORY RISK AND COUNTER-PARTY RISK ARE VERY BIG ISSUES. View Quote Who will be without a chair when the music stops, in your opinion? |
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Quoted: That's the interesting bit that people aren't getting. There was never a short squeeze on GME, there was a gamma squeeze. The short interest is still ~100-140% of float. I think the gamma squeeze trapped Melvin into a short squeeze, and Citadel loaned him money for the margin call so that he wouldn't create a feedback loop trying to unwind it. Then last night it spiked again and outpaced Citadel's ability to hedge. So where we are right now is a stock where (at least) two major firms are badly underwater in their positions, but if they try to unwind their position they go further underwater. No-one is margin calling anyone because a forced liquidation of anyone blows up everyone. And remember, short losses are infinite. Too big to fail. The only way out for any of the major names in this saga is to get the price to fall. The only way for the price to fall is for people to sell the stock, since there are no shares left available to short. But the people who own the stock recognize they have the other side of the trade by the balls, and they want their pound of flesh for it. View Quote Think a big part of it would depend on the diamond holders cracking. If they start getting greedy and unloading stock that will drive the price down |
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Quoted: Who will be without a chair when the music stops, in your opinion? View Quote Let's be realistic. Who always gets the short side of the stick? Quoted: Think a big part of it would depend on the diamond holders cracking. View Quote It's an interesting game. But right now you have millions of people who bought a lottery ticket that comes with a side of fucking up a banker's day. As of right now, $340 isn't high enough to tempt people to defect en masse, and I don't think the other side can even afford to pay that much to get out. For once the little guy is the one with the liquidity, and the banker is the one begging for scraps... I sold off my risk position and now have only profit on the table, so I can hold to zero with very little pain if I choose. I'm playing that through Friday at least. I'm also watching for any dips where I can pick up more. |
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Quoted: Let's be realistic. Who always gets the short side of the stick? It's an interesting game. But right now you have millions of people who bought a lottery ticket that comes with a side of fucking up a banker's day. As of right now, $340 isn't high enough to tempt people to defect en masse, and I don't think the other side can even afford to pay that much to get out. For once the little guy is the one with the liquidity, and the banker is the one begging for scraps... I sold off my risk position and now have only profit on the table, so I can hold to zero with very little pain if I choose. I'm playing that through Friday at least. View Quote A 134% return in a single day can make folks greedy. 1000% return in a week even more so. Even if you put 1000 bucks in last week thats 10 grand. Beyond that I think this is the new Dow 25,000 thread. |
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