Official 2020 NFL Discussion Thread - Page 320

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Posted: 1/26/2021 5:20:21 PM EDT

[#1]

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What are you basing that on?

Tom Brady is a sample size of one. He's the exception, not the norm. All other evidence points towards Rodgers's sun setting by the time he hits 40.

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It also depends on what GB thinks they have in Jordon Love. Is he real, or is GB about to get exposed if Rodgers leaves?

If Love is a legit QB, and if Rodgers squeezes the front office hard enough, I could see trading him to Denver for something like a 1st and a defensive star like Justin Simmons.

That kid is going to have quite an uphill battle. Being a first round QB is hard enough, but he is going to be the next guy in line after 30 years of Favre and Rodgers. To top it off there are also almost certainly going to be Packers fans claiming that if they would have spent that first round pick on a lineman, cornerback, whatever that they would have won another Super Bowl with Rodgers.

The Packers made their bed and then took a fat, steamy shit in it with their draft last year.

Rodgers having an MVP season was not at all predicable, but the drama growing before us absolutely was.

I absolutely think GB's draft selections had a negative impact on this season and likely cost them a trip to the Super Bowl, and the QB controversy drama was obvious to everyone the second the Love pick was announced. There are going to be what-ifs for a long, long time.

How and when the Packers move on from Rodgers might be a question that doesn't have a right answer. It's going to be a mess.

Rodgers has several years of top production left in him. I'm happy to address his succession when the time comes. We all know how fast things can change in the NFL. 4 years ago we were wondering if the Chiefs could ever even make it out of the AFC. 6 years ago the Seahawks were a budding dynasty. 3 years ago Cleveland was coming off a stretch of winning 4 games in 3 years.

Things change, really fast.

What are you basing that on?

Tom Brady is a sample size of one. He's the exception, not the norm. All other evidence points towards Rodgers's sun setting by the time he hits 40.

By the time he hits 40. He's 37 today. I'll take that.

Posted: 1/26/2021 5:21:28 PM EDT

[#2]

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Quoted:

What are you basing that on?

Tom Brady is a sample size of one. He's the exception, not the norm. All other evidence points towards Rodgers's sun setting by the time he hits 40.

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Well, he's 37 so isn't that several years? Maybe "top" production could be a bit optimistic looking at guys like Rivers last years, but I think the gist of the point is valid.

Posted: 1/26/2021 5:23:40 PM EDT

[#3]

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I said its "probably not a great sign going forward." So unless you're claiming a QB and a HC taking shots at each other IS a great sign going forward, I'm not sure what you're attempting to argue.

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It's be kinda funny if Rodgers started acting out in an attempt to get more money from the Packers and they responded by trading him to a team like the Jets.

LOL...

I'm a huge Packers and Rodgers fan but apparently he needs a clean pocket and a SB defense or nobody is worthy. He's no Brady at this point only needing 1 year to get there.

Can you tell his actions are rubbing me the wrong way.

Haha, yeah, I get it though. It's pretty shitty diva behavior for a QB that's been with a team for over a decade to make the mistakes he did in a playoff game and then basically throw his coach under the bus, claim no responsibility (based on what I saw), and then make comments that cause people to think he is considering leaving the team.

It was shitty of Rodgers and LaFleur. They both took shots at each other in the post game. Rodgers questioning the FG, LaFleur talking about taking the FG because Rodgers couldn't get it done in the redzone.

They should both know better, one being a head coach, the other being around as long as he has been.

Edit: Rodgers just made his more dramatic with his future talk.

Agreed, but I think Rodgers' behavior was worse. IIRC, LaFleur was asked what his thinking was in going for the FG. I think the fact that they couldn't gain a single yard on 3 plays so he didn't exactly have high hopes they could gain 8 yards on 1 play is legitimate. Though he probably could have worded it better.

Regardless, yeah, when you have your franchise QB and HC taking shots at each following a loss it's probably not a great sign going forward.

This is a Stephen A quality take. The two have been working together more successfully than all but maybe 3 HC/QB pairs over the last 2 years. I'll take that body of work over vague comments made in the wake of a disappointing playoff loss.

Right, because clearly a team winning games last season completely disproves the opinion that a QB and a HC taking shots at each other is "probably not a great sign going forward."

Again, if it becomes a problem going forward I'll be happy to discuss it. A this time it's just a pair of competitive guys saying things in the heat of the moment after a very disappointing loss.

I said its "probably not a great sign going forward." So unless you're claiming a QB and a HC taking shots at each other IS a great sign going forward, I'm not sure what you're attempting to argue.

I don't think comments make immediately after a bad loss are relevant to a multiple year working relationship.

By your logic, Dak's 5 years of perfect health, which was ended by a brutal leg injury is a bad sign going forward.

Posted: 1/26/2021 5:24:48 PM EDT

[#4]

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Its hard to imagine our team without Rodgers. Hope they can work it out before he falls off the cliff. Brady is the only one that seems to be able to drink from the fountain of youth.

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The remaining part of his contract features high cap numbers (~20% of cap space) that aren't great for the team and a complete lack of guarantees that aren't great for the player.

Rodgers is 37 years old, he just played a MVP season, and he has $0 in guaranteed money in front of him. He's talking about a new contract, and I don't blame him for doing so. It's a very precarious position.

https://overthecap.com/player/aaron-rodgers/1085/

Its hard to imagine our team without Rodgers. Hope they can work it out before he falls off the cliff. Brady is the only one that seems to be able to drink from the fountain of youth.

Rodgers will be 37 until mid next season. He is currently under contract for 3 more seasons (40 years old). If he finishes his current contract with the Packers, he will be older than Favre was when they dumped him.

The league may be a little more forgiving of age now-a-days with how Brees and Brady are doing at 42 and 43... But... We also saw what happened with Manning at the end and he never even made it to 40. Peyton won the MVP at age 37 (Rodgers winning this year at 37) and 2 years later his TD% was less than half his career average, his INT% doubled, couldn't even make it to 60 comp%.

So the question will be, do the Packers think Rodgers is going to continue to be great like Brees and Brady, or is he gonna fucking plummet like Manning (or Favre's last season)?

They drafted Love for a reason. But then Rodgers played great this season. Either way they will have a shit or get off the pot decision to make here real soon.

Posted: 1/26/2021 5:27:05 PM EDT

[#5]

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The Packers made their bed and then took a fat, steamy shit in it with their draft last year.

Rodgers having an MVP season was not at all predicable, but the drama growing before us absolutely was.

I absolutely think GB's draft selections had a negative impact on this season and likely cost them a trip to the Super Bowl, and the QB controversy drama was obvious to everyone the second the Love pick was announced. There are going to be what-ifs for a long, long time.

How and when the Packers move on from Rodgers might be a question that doesn't have a right answer. It's going to be a mess.

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It also depends on what GB thinks they have in Jordon Love. Is he real, or is GB about to get exposed if Rodgers leaves?

If Love is a legit QB, and if Rodgers squeezes the front office hard enough, I could see trading him to Denver for something like a 1st and a defensive star like Justin Simmons.

That kid is going to have quite an uphill battle. Being a first round QB is hard enough, but he is going to be the next guy in line after 30 years of Favre and Rodgers. To top it off there are also almost certainly going to be Packers fans claiming that if they would have spent that first round pick on a lineman, cornerback, whatever that they would have won another Super Bowl with Rodgers.

The Packers made their bed and then took a fat, steamy shit in it with their draft last year.

Rodgers having an MVP season was not at all predicable, but the drama growing before us absolutely was.

I absolutely think GB's draft selections had a negative impact on this season and likely cost them a trip to the Super Bowl, and the QB controversy drama was obvious to everyone the second the Love pick was announced. There are going to be what-ifs for a long, long time.

How and when the Packers move on from Rodgers might be a question that doesn't have a right answer. It's going to be a mess.

What's funny is some Packers fans here were actually claiming they had a good draft when pretty much every "expert" I saw graded them at a C or worse.

The Love selection was, and remains, simply baffling.

I usually don't pay much attention to sports media, but I was enthralled with the Cousins and Garoppolo QB situations and how teams would handle it. The Rodgers/Packers quandary has the potential to be even more entertaining.

Posted: 1/26/2021 5:27:56 PM EDT

[#6]

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What's funny is some Packers fans here were actually claiming they had a good draft when pretty much every "expert" I saw graded them at a C or worse.

The Love selection was, and remains, simply baffling.

I usually don't pay much attention to sports media, but I was enthralled with the Cousins and Garoppolo QB situations and how teams would handle it. The Rodgers/Packers quandary has the potential to be even more entertaining.

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It also depends on what GB thinks they have in Jordon Love. Is he real, or is GB about to get exposed if Rodgers leaves?

If Love is a legit QB, and if Rodgers squeezes the front office hard enough, I could see trading him to Denver for something like a 1st and a defensive star like Justin Simmons.

That kid is going to have quite an uphill battle. Being a first round QB is hard enough, but he is going to be the next guy in line after 30 years of Favre and Rodgers. To top it off there are also almost certainly going to be Packers fans claiming that if they would have spent that first round pick on a lineman, cornerback, whatever that they would have won another Super Bowl with Rodgers.

The Packers made their bed and then took a fat, steamy shit in it with their draft last year.

Rodgers having an MVP season was not at all predicable, but the drama growing before us absolutely was.

I absolutely think GB's draft selections had a negative impact on this season and likely cost them a trip to the Super Bowl, and the QB controversy drama was obvious to everyone the second the Love pick was announced. There are going to be what-ifs for a long, long time.

How and when the Packers move on from Rodgers might be a question that doesn't have a right answer. It's going to be a mess.

What's funny is some Packers fans here were actually claiming they had a good draft when pretty much every "expert" I saw graded them at a C or worse.

The Love selection was, and remains, simply baffling.

I usually don't pay much attention to sports media, but I was enthralled with the Cousins and Garoppolo QB situations and how teams would handle it. The Rodgers/Packers quandary has the potential to be even more entertaining.

Which Packers fan here was claiming they drafted well?

Posted: 1/26/2021 5:28:51 PM EDT

[#7]

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By the time he hits 40. He's 37 today. I'll take that.

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What are you basing that on?

Tom Brady is a sample size of one. He's the exception, not the norm. All other evidence points towards Rodgers's sun setting by the time he hits 40.

By the time he hits 40. He's 37 today. I'll take that.

As I just posted, but saying again to highlight.

Manning won the MVP with insane numbers (better than Rodgers this year) at 37. At 39 he was a steaming pile of hot garbage, getting benched, and carried across the finishing line on a plank. Edit: His TD% went down from 8.3 to 2.7, INT% went up from 1.5 to 5.1.

Brett Favre went from a 68 comp%, 4200 yards, 33 TDs and 7 INTs in 2009 to 60 comp%, 2500 yards, 11 TDs and 19 INTs in 2010. Edit: His TD% dropped in half, his INT% tripled.

Shit can happen fast.

Which I hope I never have to see with Tom.

Posted: 1/26/2021 5:31:09 PM EDT

[#8]

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Would you trade away an MVP QB for a first round pick and a defensive starter?

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That's the other catch, isn't it? Does Rodgers want money or his best possible shot at one last ring?

The idea of Watson going to Miami and Rodgers going to the Jets and turning the AFC East into a giant battle with the Patriots as the basement dwellers amuses the hell out of me, but that's probably not the best fit.

I really, really hate this idea, but the one team that seems to have the best blend of draft capital and roster construction for a guy like Rodgers is... Denver.

Interesting, but does Denver have the draft capital to make an offer worthy of Rodgers?

Miami at least has the picks to make it happen.

Rodgers’s value depends on how many potential buyers there are, how hard he squeezes the GB front office, and how teams view his contract situation. All three of those can swing his value a lot.

In general, I would expect Rodgers’s trade value to be lower than Watson just based on age.

It also depends on what GB thinks they have in Jordon Love. Is he real, or is GB about to get exposed if Rodgers leaves?

If Love is a legit QB, and if Rodgers squeezes the front office hard enough, I could see trading him to Denver for something like a 1st and a defensive star like Justin Simmons.

A first and a defensive star would be a steal for Rodgers. Highway robbery, worse than the Hopkins trade.

Nope.

The thing about the Hopkins trade is that David Johnson had negative net value due to his contract. If I'm a GM and you want to send a guy like that to my team, I would expect you to package a pick with him to compensate me for the otherwise wasted cap space, and I only make that trade if I'm a tank team collecting picks. The idea that a playoff team traded away one of the very best WRs in the league to get him is astonishing. I don't think most people really understand just how bad that trade was.

Back to Rodgers... He will be 38 in the upcoming season, he's under contract until he's 40, that contract is expensive, and he's already asking for more money. Odds are against him playing as well as he did in 2020 ever again. A decision by the Packers to sign him to a new contract is very risky. Another team trading for him AND signing a contract? That's some really high stakes stuff. All of that liability hurts his value.

If the Packers were to trade Rodgers for a top-10 pick and a proven star player, there's a very high chance they come out ahead on the trade when the team who gets Rodgers might only get 1-2 years of quality play out of him.

Let's look at it from a point spread perspective. Subtract Rodgers, and add a generic first round CB, or OL, or DL or LB to the Packers as well as Justin Simmons.

What happens to the point spread against any, or all of the Packers' opponents this year?

That's a pretty shitty comparison considering QB is the only position that causes any serious line movement.

Which kinda goes to the heart of the issue, right? Top level QB play matters more than anything else.

I don't think it "goes to the heart of the issue." A point spread moving and to what degree isn't even close to an accurate gauge of a non-QB player's importance.

Years ago the Cowboys defense was averaging giving up something ridiculous like 12 points more per game without Sean Lee. Sean Lee would be announced to be out and the line wouldn't move even half a point.

Would you trade away an MVP QB for a first round pick and a defensive starter?

The issue is whether or not a point spread moving and to what degree is a good gauge of how important a non-QB player is to a team. I don't think it is.

Posted: 1/26/2021 5:31:45 PM EDT

[#9]