User Panel
User Panel
User Panel
|
Posted: 8/2/2018 10:50:02 PM EDT
[#1]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
@midcap Watch this gif that was posted at wsb today for an explanation: https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/93yspy/dont_drink_too_much_of_the_bs_at_rwallstreetbets/ 
|
|
|
|
Posted: 8/2/2018 11:24:46 PM EDT
[#2]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I can tell you never ran the math. let's say your goal is one million and your 3% number. If you can't get a steady 8% in the last five years that's going to mess you up. for example in year 1 of the last five you would have 687,000 then with 8% per year compounding you'd end up right at 1,000,000 at year 5 Let's say you investments do shit in that 5 years. 0% return. 3% of 687,000 is $20,610 where as 3% of a million is 30,000, that's a 33% haircut because you underestimated the need for consistent returns. This is just what I see daily, I don't deal with Bill Gates type folks. I am just illustrating how all the articles you read and most of the stuff that's peddled out there is not as accurate as most people think. |
|
|
|
Posted: 8/2/2018 11:28:03 PM EDT
[#3]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
This is a gripe I have with projections. It's all fine and well to assume a 8% return, but that is a 100% stock portfolio, and everyone says you shouldn't be 100% stocks close to retirement for obvious reasons. But it's the last few years that the 8% is really working for you, not when you have $10,000 there. Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted: I can tell you never ran the math. let's say your goal is one million and your 3% number. If you can't get a steady 8% in the last five years that's going to mess you up. for example in year 1 of the last five you would have 687,000 then with 8% per year compounding you'd end up right at 1,000,000 at year 5 Let's say you investments do shit in that 5 years. 0% return. 3% of 687,000 is $20,610 where as 3% of a million is 30,000, that's a 33% haircut because you underestimated the need for consistent returns. This is just what I see daily, I don't deal with Bill Gates type folks. I am just illustrating how all the articles you read and most of the stuff that's peddled out there is not as accurate as most people think. We are year 10 on the bull market, everyone is feeling good. |
|
|
|
Posted: 8/3/2018 2:16:13 AM EDT
[#4]
Quote HistoryQuoted: There have been really good studies showing the outcomes of different allocations with regard to how long you have to actually use the money. We are year 10 on the bull market, everyone is feeling good. |
|
|
|
Posted: 8/3/2018 9:47:15 AM EDT
[#5]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
I know people in their 60's sitting at a 90/10 risk allocation. Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted: There have been really good studies showing the outcomes of different allocations with regard to how long you have to actually use the money. We are year 10 on the bull market, everyone is feeling good. It wasn't that long ago that the SP500 was paying more in dividends than the 10 year. let that sink in. |
|
|
|
Posted: 8/3/2018 9:49:58 AM EDT
[#6]
|
|
|
|
Posted: 8/3/2018 9:53:11 AM EDT
[#7]
Quote HistoryQuoted: me too...which IMO your allocation should have little to do with age...more to do with macro themes...then you pair the risk sensitivity with what ever strategy you use. It wasn't that long ago that the SP500 was paying more in dividends than the 10 year. let that sink in. |
|
|
|
Posted: 8/3/2018 10:07:33 AM EDT
[#8]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
I just received this email. https://www.AR15.Com/media/mediaFiles/300501/34709868-EF08-43FC-8238-5506E04DA624-628087.JPG 
|
|
|
|
Posted: 8/3/2018 10:13:56 AM EDT
[#9]
Serious question. How do these index funds compare to others in terms of tracking and performance.
|
|
|
|
Posted: 8/3/2018 10:14:27 AM EDT
[#10]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Exactly, using dividends as synthetic bonds. Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted: me too...which IMO your allocation should have little to do with age...more to do with macro themes...then you pair the risk sensitivity with what ever strategy you use. It wasn't that long ago that the SP500 was paying more in dividends than the 10 year. let that sink in. For example, this year if you were in a mod fund, you had you ass handed to you. The historical deviation meant nothing this year, you ate it just like a 100% equity port. |
|
|
|
Posted: 8/3/2018 10:15:41 AM EDT
[#11]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Serious question. How do these index funds compare to others in terms of tracking and performance. |
|
|
|
Posted: 8/3/2018 10:23:10 AM EDT
[#12]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
aren't they new? I think it would be hard to tell just yet. Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
Serious question. How do these index funds compare to others in terms of tracking and performance. At quick glance it looks like just another blended mutual fund. Proceed with caution. |
|
|
|
Posted: 8/3/2018 10:23:15 AM EDT
[#13]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
This is a gripe I have with projections. It's all fine and well to assume a 8% return, but that is a 100% stock portfolio, and everyone says you shouldn't be 100% stocks close to retirement for obvious reasons. But it's the last few years that the 8% is really working for you, not when you have $10,000 there. If you've got a 20+ year investment horizon, you're probably better off 100% equity, because repeated games are marvelous for yielding up average returns. In the short run, it's more likely that you deviate from the average, and thus the recommendation to switch to lower volatility allocations as you get nearer to retirement. Yes, the 8% would be nice in the last few years, but the problem is that the 8% is a long-run average, and in the short-run all kinds of crap can happen. Maybe you get 15-20% in those last few years. Maybe you lose 30%. People don't think risk be like it is, but it do. Risk ignorance != risk tolerance. |
|
|
|
Posted: 8/3/2018 10:26:30 AM EDT
[#14]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Doh. You’re right. Inception date yesterday. I’d hold off on putting a bunch of money into it until more is known about it. The zero fee is nice, but what’s in it. Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
Quoted:
Serious question. How do these index funds compare to others in terms of tracking and performance. 
|
|
|
|
Posted: 8/3/2018 10:27:03 AM EDT
[#15]
Why would I want to move my VFIFX over to fidelity? Vanguard is simple to use and my target retirement fund is easy enough to set it and forget it through them. Someone convince me otherwise. My fees are only .15%.
|
|
|
|
Posted: 8/3/2018 10:31:46 AM EDT
[#16]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Verifying the correct ticker symbols, are these correct? FSTMX - ~18% per year FSIVX - A real stinker I doubt that either will outperform FUSVX (S&P 500 index) which has an expense ratio of .015%. |
|
|
|
Posted: 8/3/2018 10:32:32 AM EDT
[#17]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Sort of. On lump sums, order of returns doesn't matter. But, sure, you'll have more contributions to the account near the end, and in that way, late returns will have a larger impact, but large returns aren't free nor are they guaranteed. If you've got a 20+ year investment horizon, you're probably better off 100% equity, because repeated games are marvelous for yielding up average returns. In the short run, it's more likely that you deviate from the average, and thus the recommendation to switch to lower volatility allocations as you get nearer to retirement. Yes, the 8% would be nice in the last few years, but the problem is that the 8% is a long-run average, and in the short-run all kinds of crap can happen. Maybe you get 15-20% in those last few years. Maybe you lose 30%. People don't think risk be like it is, but it do. Risk ignorance != risk tolerance. Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
This is a gripe I have with projections. It's all fine and well to assume a 8% return, but that is a 100% stock portfolio, and everyone says you shouldn't be 100% stocks close to retirement for obvious reasons. But it's the last few years that the 8% is really working for you, not when you have $10,000 there. If you've got a 20+ year investment horizon, you're probably better off 100% equity, because repeated games are marvelous for yielding up average returns. In the short run, it's more likely that you deviate from the average, and thus the recommendation to switch to lower volatility allocations as you get nearer to retirement. Yes, the 8% would be nice in the last few years, but the problem is that the 8% is a long-run average, and in the short-run all kinds of crap can happen. Maybe you get 15-20% in those last few years. Maybe you lose 30%. People don't think risk be like it is, but it do. Risk ignorance != risk tolerance. Here's the rub, because most of the books, data and theories are old. 2006 cash paid 4-5%, that's only 300 basis points off from your target of 8%, so in theory, you aren't giving up a whole lot in order to bring your deviation to + 4-5%, where as since ZIRP, going to cash gives you 0% effectively. You used to be rewarded with some sort of rate going to low vol, but that hasn't been the case since 2008. |
|
|
|
Posted: 8/3/2018 10:33:33 AM EDT
[#18]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Why would I want to move my VFIFX over to fidelity? Vanguard is simple to use and my target retirement fund is easy enough to set it and forget it through them. Someone convince me otherwise. My fees are only .15%.
|
|
|
|
Posted: 8/3/2018 10:39:04 AM EDT
[#19]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
No, the new funds are FZROX and FXILX. I doubt that either will outperform FUSVX (S&P 500 index) which has an expense ratio of .015%. Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
Verifying the correct ticker symbols, are these correct? FSTMX - ~18% per year FSIVX - A real stinker I doubt that either will outperform FUSVX (S&P 500 index) which has an expense ratio of .015%. |
|
|
|
Posted: 8/3/2018 11:11:09 AM EDT
[#20]
I don’t see any reason to put any money in this over Fidelity’s 500 index FUSVX. This fund has less holdings than that one.
|
|
|
|
Posted: 8/3/2018 12:41:07 PM EDT
[#21]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
I don’t see any reason to put any money in this over Fidelity’s 500 index FUSVX. This fund has less holdings than that one.
|
|
|
|
Posted: 8/3/2018 12:52:46 PM EDT
[#22]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
how dare you research your decision instead of jumping on the free ride train! Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
I don’t see any reason to put any money in this over Fidelity’s 500 index FUSVX. This fund has less holdings than that one. Then again I’m one of those weirdos that reads prospectuses. And file every one that comes to me. |
|
|
|
Posted: 8/3/2018 1:10:26 PM EDT
[#23]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
All 15 minutes of research led to nope! Nope nope nope! Do not want. Then again I’m one of those weirdos that reads prospectuses. And file every one that comes to me. Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
Quoted:
I don’t see any reason to put any money in this over Fidelity’s 500 index FUSVX. This fund has less holdings than that one. Then again I’m one of those weirdos that reads prospectuses. And file every one that comes to me.
|
|
|
|
Posted: 8/17/2018 3:53:17 PM EDT
[#24]
How’s that fund doing?
|
|
|
|
Posted: 8/17/2018 5:15:47 PM EDT
[#25]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
How’s that fund doing?
|
|
|
|
Posted: 8/17/2018 5:16:59 PM EDT
[#26]
Quote HistoryQuoted: either good, bad or ok I assume. |
|
|
|
Posted: 8/17/2018 5:41:56 PM EDT
[#27]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
I don’t see any reason to put any money in this over Fidelity’s 500 index FUSVX. This fund has less holdings than that one. I use FUSVX a lot..... would it make sense to move that money? |
|
|
|
Posted: 8/17/2018 6:59:16 PM EDT
[#28]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
This is the question I came to ask. I use FUSVX a lot..... would it make sense to move that money? Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
I don’t see any reason to put any money in this over Fidelity’s 500 index FUSVX. This fund has less holdings than that one. I use FUSVX a lot..... would it make sense to move that money? |
|
|
|
Posted: 8/17/2018 7:11:40 PM EDT
[#29]
Quote HistoryQuoted: And what is wrong with Fidelity? I mean Ill save the $4 and get awesome service, access to the Blackrock ETFs, good website and the rewards credit card... I’m sure fidelity is fine. |
|
|
Win a FREE Membership!
Sign up for the ARFCOM weekly newsletter and be entered to win a free ARFCOM membership. One new winner* is announced every week!
You will receive an email every Friday morning featuring the latest chatter from the hottest topics, breaking news surrounding legislation, as well as exclusive deals only available to ARFCOM email subscribers.
AR15.COM is the world's largest firearm community and is a gathering place for firearm enthusiasts of all types.
From hunters and military members, to competition shooters and general firearm enthusiasts, we welcome anyone who values and respects the way of the firearm.
Subscribe to our monthly Newsletter to receive firearm news, product discounts from your favorite Industry Partners, and more.
Copyright © 1996-2024 AR15.COM LLC. All Rights Reserved.
Any use of this content without express written consent is prohibited.
AR15.Com reserves the right to overwrite or replace any affiliate, commercial, or monetizable links, posted by users, with our own.
Attached File