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Posted: 8/13/2018 11:59:33 AM EDT
[#1]
Quote HistoryQuoted: It's a bet! 
(If/when I lose, please do not let me forget. I have a terrible memory, and don't want to appear to be a welcher in case I forget! Hopefully this thread will still be running, and we'll all be driving Saudi electric cars  .)I just placed an order for a Model 3 LR last week as a company car. I was expecting late October delivery at the earliest but when the Tesla sales guy contacted me by email he said I could expect by the end of this month  . Will be crazy if not a mistake.
For the record, it's an LR Premium with self driving and autopilot enabled. ETA: I meant the other guy, since obviously Tesla will never sell a $35k Model 3. |
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Posted: 8/13/2018 12:13:31 PM EDT
[#2]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
It's a bet!
(If/when I lose, please do not let me forget. I have a terrible memory, and don't want to appear to be a welcher in case I forget! Hopefully this thread will still be running, and we'll all be driving Saudi electric cars .)Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
Quoted: I don’t want to be t something that requires an FFL, since that’s a hassle. But I’d be willing to bet 10 pmags that Tesla will NEVER sell a Model 3 with an MSRP of $35k. (If Tesla decide to manufacture a handful as a publicity stunt, exclusively for a few people on the wait list that got screwed, it wouldn’t surprise me ... what I am referring to is an actual Model 3 than anyone can order and buy). Terms: Within 2 years of today's date Tesla has produced no less than 10,000 Model 3 SRs with their target price of $35,000 (Without EV credits included to arrive at base $35k figure).
(If/when I lose, please do not let me forget. I have a terrible memory, and don't want to appear to be a welcher in case I forget! Hopefully this thread will still be running, and we'll all be driving Saudi electric cars .)
Kharn |
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Posted: 8/13/2018 12:19:56 PM EDT
[#3]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
How are you going to verify their production on specific trim levels?
Kharn Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
Quoted:
Quoted: I don’t want to be t something that requires an FFL, since that’s a hassle. But I’d be willing to bet 10 pmags that Tesla will NEVER sell a Model 3 with an MSRP of $35k. (If Tesla decide to manufacture a handful as a publicity stunt, exclusively for a few people on the wait list that got screwed, it wouldn’t surprise me ... what I am referring to is an actual Model 3 than anyone can order and buy). Terms: Within 2 years of today's date Tesla has produced no less than 10,000 Model 3 SRs with their target price of $35,000 (Without EV credits included to arrive at base $35k figure).
(If/when I lose, please do not let me forget. I have a terrible memory, and don't want to appear to be a welcher in case I forget! Hopefully this thread will still be running, and we'll all be driving Saudi electric cars .)
Kharn |
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Posted: 8/13/2018 12:30:53 PM EDT
[#4]
Who in their right mind would buy a car from company that has a astronomical amount of debt subsidized by a country that is 22trillion in Debt
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Posted: 8/13/2018 12:38:58 PM EDT
[#5]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Who in their right mind would buy a car from company that has a astronomical amount of debt subsidized by a country that is 22trillion in Debt 
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Posted: 8/13/2018 1:07:38 PM EDT
[#6]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
$1.8b bond issue last year. $160m deposits for Roadster 2 and Semi in November. Securitizing leases in Jan/Feb to free up short term spending room. Stretching out accounts payable more every quarter. Delaying capital expense payments by moving the goal posts on Model 3 production. It's a combination of robbing Peter to pay Paul, and juggling an ever greater number of liabilities while trying to transfer balances between credit cards. It works well enough until it suddenly doesn't. Quote HistoryQuoted:
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How do they continue to operate with those losses? I'm ignorant of how such things work. Where are they getting the cash to keep the lights on? It's a combination of robbing Peter to pay Paul, and juggling an ever greater number of liabilities while trying to transfer balances between credit cards. It works well enough until it suddenly doesn't. |
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Posted: 8/13/2018 1:24:40 PM EDT
[#7]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Jeff Skilling and Andrew Fastow approve.
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Posted: 8/13/2018 2:57:06 PM EDT
[#8]
Quote HistoryQuoted: How are you going to verify their production on specific trim levels?
Kharn |
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Posted: 8/13/2018 3:07:08 PM EDT
[#9]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
VIN production database. The Tesla subreddit & Bloomberg are tracking individual variety production numbers, so that data is quite easy to find. Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted: How are you going to verify their production on specific trim levels?
Kharn |
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Posted: 8/13/2018 3:26:30 PM EDT
[#10]
Elon Musk will make Bernie Madoff, Bernie Ebbers, and the Enron executives look like choir boys when this is finally over.
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Posted: 8/13/2018 3:54:09 PM EDT
[#11]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Elon Musk will make Bernie Madoff, Bernie Ebbers, and the Enron executives look like choir boys when this is finally over. I've always thought that the end game for Tesla was being acquired by a large auto maker that (a) wants an upscale electric model without having to develop it themselves, and (b) actually knows how to build cars. If that happens, Musk can walk away and may still be regarded as a visionary that helped make electric vehicles more mainstream. |
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Posted: 8/13/2018 3:59:38 PM EDT
[#12]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Musk knew that "funding secured" was a meaningless phrase. Just like his statements that he is "considering" a possible plan to go private. He's probably throwing this privatization plan out as chaff, in an attempt to divert attention from Tesla's production and financial problems. And it seems to be working very well. ETA: Also, how is it supposed to work when he expects the majority of shareholders, who are probably not accredited investors, to go private when there is a 2,000 shareholder limit on private companies? I assume some kind of syndicate or fund but at that point you're just losing your liquidity and control. |
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Posted: 8/13/2018 4:26:10 PM EDT
[#13]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
If stockholders didn't revolt when he bought Solar-whatever, they are basically his bitches at this point. |
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Posted: 8/13/2018 6:15:32 PM EDT
[#14]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
That wasn't a meaningless phrase, and it's hardly a meaningless tweet if it moves the stock value by billions of dollars within an hour. He needs to start being accountable for this crap. ETA: Also, how is it supposed to work when he expects the majority of shareholders, who are probably not accredited investors, to go private when there is a 2,000 shareholder limit on private companies? I assume some kind of syndicate or fund but at that point you're just losing your liquidity and control. Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
Musk knew that "funding secured" was a meaningless phrase. Just like his statements that he is "considering" a possible plan to go private. He's probably throwing this privatization plan out as chaff, in an attempt to divert attention from Tesla's production and financial problems. And it seems to be working very well. ETA: Also, how is it supposed to work when he expects the majority of shareholders, who are probably not accredited investors, to go private when there is a 2,000 shareholder limit on private companies? I assume some kind of syndicate or fund but at that point you're just losing your liquidity and control. Musk said Tesla was "considering" something and had "secured funding" to do it. People that bought/sold based on those words were stupid. |
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Posted: 8/13/2018 7:36:48 PM EDT
[#15]
LOL. There are stories on Instagram and Twitter about Musk (with his girlfriend Grimes) dropping acid and tweeting.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz/article-6056729/Azealia-Banks-waited-days-Elon-Musks-house-Grimes.html
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Posted: 8/13/2018 7:40:02 PM EDT
[#16]
I don't know if it already been said but the Saudi Gov't just invested a little over $3 billion into Tesla the other day.
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Posted: 8/13/2018 8:02:18 PM EDT
[#17]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
LOL. There are stories on Instagram and Twitter about Musk (with his girlfriend Grimes) dropping acid and tweeting. http://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz/article-6056729/Azealia-Banks-waited-days-Elon-Musks-house-Grimes.html
Quote HistoryQuoted:
LOL. There are stories on Instagram and Twitter about Musk (with his girlfriend Grimes) dropping acid and tweeting. http://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz/article-6056729/Azealia-Banks-waited-days-Elon-Musks-house-Grimes.html
She apparently tweeted this too: “Elon Musk is really part of the problem...when you talk about white male privilege and colonialism,” it begins. “The last time I try working with a white bitch,” link 
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Posted: 8/13/2018 8:08:34 PM EDT
[#18]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
I just placed an order for a Model 3 LR last week as a company car.
https://jalopnik.com/bumper-falls-off-brand-new-tesla-model-3-after-30-minut-1828306917 $50,000 car. |
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Posted: 8/13/2018 8:41:41 PM EDT
[#19]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
All come from a rapper named Azealia Banks. Who Musk has denied every meeting. She apparently tweeted this too: so... Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
LOL. There are stories on Instagram and Twitter about Musk (with his girlfriend Grimes) dropping acid and tweeting. http://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz/article-6056729/Azealia-Banks-waited-days-Elon-Musks-house-Grimes.html
She apparently tweeted this too: "Elon Musk is really part of the problem...when you talk about white male privilege and colonialism," it begins. "The last time I try working with a white bitch," link |
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Posted: 8/14/2018 2:15:44 AM EDT
[#20]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Prayers sent.
https://jalopnik.com/bumper-falls-off-brand-new-tesla-model-3-after-30-minut-1828306917 $50,000 car. Maybe I will just hitch a trailer to my 4Runner and haul it back that way just to be safe
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Posted: 8/14/2018 2:52:49 AM EDT
[#21]
I'm kinda surprised he doesn't get arrested for securities fraud.That's just stock manipulation
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Posted: 8/14/2018 3:01:14 AM EDT
[#22]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
I'm kinda surprised he doesn't get arrested for securities fraud.That's just stock manipulation |
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Posted: 8/14/2018 3:11:04 AM EDT
[#23]
Musk now says he’s hired Goldman Sachs for investment banking to take private. Also says working with Silver Lake Partners which is a big wig hedge fund.
Silver lake partners says they have no intension in investing in Tesla LOL |
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Posted: 8/14/2018 4:42:39 AM EDT
[#24]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
link Could be closed is not closed, it's not the same as funding secured. To me this sounds like cya for what at best could be characterized as an irresponsible tweet, and at worst, an attempt at market manipulation and fraud. I think he just did a Trump. He fired off a tweet without thinking about the consequences. I like Elon Musk, but he really isn't geared for running a publicly traded company. He doesn't like it, and he's not good at it. It looks like the Saudi sovereign fund has a current value around $600 billion dollars. Assuming Tesla could do the deal for $71 billion, as has been reported, that investment would represent a significant percentage of the Saudi's total investment portfolio. A professional portfolio manager might even think that kind of concentration an unacceptable risk. Especially for a company that has not yet produced a profit. Quote HistoryQuoted:
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It was the Saudis all along... "Going back almost two years, the Saudi Arabian sovereign wealth fund has approached me multiple times about taking Tesla private," Musk said in a blog post published Monday. "Recently, after the Saudi fund bought almost 5 percent of Tesla stock through the public markets, they reached out to ask for another meeting. That meeting took place on July 31st. ... I left the July 31st meeting with no question that a deal with the Saudi sovereign fund could be closed." Could be closed is not closed, it's not the same as funding secured. To me this sounds like cya for what at best could be characterized as an irresponsible tweet, and at worst, an attempt at market manipulation and fraud. I think he just did a Trump. He fired off a tweet without thinking about the consequences. I like Elon Musk, but he really isn't geared for running a publicly traded company. He doesn't like it, and he's not good at it. It looks like the Saudi sovereign fund has a current value around $600 billion dollars. Assuming Tesla could do the deal for $71 billion, as has been reported, that investment would represent a significant percentage of the Saudi's total investment portfolio. A professional portfolio manager might even think that kind of concentration an unacceptable risk. Especially for a company that has not yet produced a profit. If they really want the company, they could just sit back and wait until the stock tanks to $20 |
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Posted: 8/14/2018 5:38:40 AM EDT
[#25]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
I admire him. He’s a visionary of sorts, and intelligent. In this thread we see all the “important” people who have jobs at circle k, blue collar types, office space guys, etc project hate onto someone who’s actually wealthier, smarter and actually trying to help humanity. Heh, people. Funny shit. Better to have tried and failed, then to have never tried. I have to wonder though, what kind of monkeys does he have working on the automation?! It’s incredibly binary.  Quote HistoryQuoted:
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Stop worrying everyone! Soon, you'll be able to put down a deposit for a ticket to Mars, or maybe a condo on the moon or something! 
Literally Everything that man has done, has been geared toward getting us off this rock. Heh, people. Funny shit. Better to have tried and failed, then to have never tried. I have to wonder though, what kind of monkeys does he have working on the automation?! It’s incredibly binary. But when it's on the US taxpayer's dime, "Better to have tried and failed, then to have never tried." doesn't cut it. Not at all. |
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Posted: 8/14/2018 5:41:21 AM EDT
[#26]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
True EVs with acceptable range or more lame hybrids? The thing about Tesla is they are the first and only ones who built electric vehicles I would consider owning. Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
Quoted: I ditched my TSLA stock in August the same time I added to a small short position. 08/01/17 Bought To Open 5 TSLA Jan 18 '19 $50 Put (TSLA) 07/06/17 Bought To Open 2 TSLA Jan 18 '19 $50 Put (TSLA) I'm thinking of adding to it shortly before 4Q earnings. Right now my money is focused elsewhere on winners: APPL, NVDIA, BABA It's still too dangerous to go all in on TSLA. By late 2019, the company may not even exist - too many negative catalysts as major car manufacturers ramp up electrics. - competition increasing across all major car manufacturers - technology (perceived) advantage eroding - flat lined X and S production (OK they're up 5% this quarter - whoopee) - Model 3 problems - severe cash burn - losing money on each and every car manufactured - will only worsen with Model 3 ramp up - Rising interest rates will impact TSLA next time they seek financing next round GM should have their September Bolt sales figures out in a few days. Higher spells more trouble for TSLA, as the Bolt is actually available and closer to a favorable mass production price point. GM is prepped and ready for expanded EV use in China, and is introducing additional EVs. 20 new EV's coming up in the next 5 years. Trucks included, as well as SUV's. The thing about Tesla is they are the first and only ones who built electric vehicles I would consider owning. |
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Posted: 8/14/2018 9:45:23 AM EDT
[#27]
Tesla filed a 8K today, announcing they had formed a "going private" committee.
"The special committee has not yet received a formal proposal from Mr. Musk regarding any Going Private Transaction nor has it reached any conclusion as to the advisability or feasibility of such a transaction." https://fintel.io/doc/sec/1318605/000156459018021585/tsla-8k_20180814.htm |
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Posted: 8/14/2018 10:53:12 AM EDT
[#28]
Quote HistoryQuoted: You should probably keep those handy, Tesla removed all mention of the $35k option from marketing materials and the website a couple weeks ago. I just placed an order for a Model 3 LR last week as a company car. I was expecting late October delivery at the earliest but when the Tesla sales guy contacted me by email he said I could expect by the end of this month . Will be crazy if not a mistake.
For the record, it's an LR Premium with self driving and autopilot enabled. ETA: I meant the other guy, since obviously Tesla will never sell a $35k Model 3. |
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Posted: 8/14/2018 11:16:59 AM EDT
[#29]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Apparently you can move way up in line if you order a model with lots of options. Meaning I could put an order in today with all the options and have a car months before someone who ordered a base, $50k version two years ago. That might be it. I ticked every box for the LR RWD model, wheels, interior, autopilot, even a $2k add on for white paint . My Tesla "Delivery Specialist" is taking his sweet time to respond to my emails so still no delivery date confirmation yet.
I believe that they threw a bunch of these higher optioned cars together recently during the surge so I am setting my quality expectations pretty low for when I pick it up. |
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Posted: 8/14/2018 11:35:03 AM EDT
[#30]
Quote HistoryQuoted: That might be it. I ticked every box for the LR RWD model, wheels, interior, autopilot, even a $2k add on for white paint . My Tesla "Delivery Specialist" is taking his sweet time to respond to my emails so still no delivery date confirmation yet.
I believe that they threw a bunch of these higher optioned cars together recently during the surge so I am setting my quality expectations pretty low for when I pick it up. |
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Posted: 8/14/2018 11:50:07 AM EDT
[#31]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
What exactly do the words "funding secured" mean to you? Musk said Tesla was "considering" something and had "secured funding" to do it. People that bought/sold based on those words were stupid. I've never owned or shorted Tesla stock, but I watch it closely for the sheer entertainment value. F-Elon Musk is the evil supervillain of this generation. |
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Posted: 8/14/2018 12:34:51 PM EDT
[#32]
Apparently model 3s rear bumpers are falling off, so crude, yet people keep buying them
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Posted: 8/14/2018 12:49:08 PM EDT
[#33]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Apparently model 3s rear bumpers are falling off, so crude, yet people keep buying them |
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Posted: 8/14/2018 3:05:41 PM EDT
[#34]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Only when it rains(seriously). Should have stuck to sunny California. Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
Apparently model 3s rear bumpers are falling off, so crude, yet people keep buying them To be fair every car make and model has it's share of lemons. No manufacturer is 100% perfect, except maybe the high end low production brands. ...and even then, things like this happen. 
Brand new Ford GT catches fire in germany |
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Posted: 8/14/2018 3:44:52 PM EDT
[#35]
Exactly, except with Tesla every little thing becomes worthy of a news article or blog post.
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Posted: 8/14/2018 3:46:44 PM EDT
[#36]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
$1.8b bond issue last year. $160m deposits for Roadster 2 and Semi in November. Securitizing leases in Jan/Feb to free up short term spending room. Stretching out accounts payable more every quarter. Delaying capital expense payments by moving the goal posts on Model 3 production. It's a combination of robbing Peter to pay Paul, and juggling an ever greater number of liabilities while trying to transfer balances between credit cards. It works well enough until it suddenly doesn't. Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
How do they continue to operate with those losses? I'm ignorant of how such things work. Where are they getting the cash to keep the lights on? It's a combination of robbing Peter to pay Paul, and juggling an ever greater number of liabilities while trying to transfer balances between credit cards. It works well enough until it suddenly doesn't. |
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Posted: 8/14/2018 5:16:14 PM EDT
[#37]
Quote HistoryQuoted: How many bumpers have fallen off? Just the one? |
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Posted: 8/14/2018 7:27:12 PM EDT
[#38]
I find it hilarious that whenever Tesla is criticized for their quality issues the shills dig out the worst example they can find of a major. The Ford Focus is basically abandoned, nobody at Ford cares about it. There are fewer than 5000 Ford GTs built since 2004. These should not be compared with an attempt at a mass market car Tesla bet the entire company on. These aren't cherry picked stories either, the Model X is the very worst car in the US for reliability. There are tons of stories of Model 3s being delivered with obvious build issues. Warranty numbers are broken out in 10-Q filings, Tesla spends much more per car than the majors. They're among the most expensive vehicles to insure because they cost so much to repair out of warranty. All of this is fine as long as you admit what you have. Ferrari's have similar problems but nobody buys them for the daily milk run.
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Posted: 8/14/2018 7:45:15 PM EDT
[#39]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
I find it hilarious that whenever Tesla is criticized for their quality issues the shills dig out the worst example they can find of a major. The Ford Focus is basically abandoned, nobody at Ford cares about it. There are fewer than 5000 Ford GTs built since 2004. These should not be compared with an attempt at a mass market car Tesla bet the entire company on. These aren't cherry picked stories either, the Model X is the very worst car in the US for reliability. There are tons of stories of Model 3s being delivered with obvious build issues. Warranty numbers are broken out in 10-Q filings, Tesla spends much more per car than the majors. They're among the most expensive vehicles to insure because they cost so much to repair out of warranty. All of this is fine as long as you admit what you have. Ferrari's have similar problems but nobody buys them for the daily milk run. Edmunds Tesla Model 3 review and ratings. USNEWS Tesla Model 3 rating Car and Driver Tesla Model 3 Scratch that, Consumer Reports now recommends the Tesla Model 3 Top Gear Tesla Model 3 review |
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Posted: 8/14/2018 8:01:14 PM EDT
[#40]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Exactly, except with Tesla every little thing becomes worthy of a news article or blog post. |
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Posted: 8/14/2018 8:53:16 PM EDT
[#41]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
I find it hilarious that whenever Tesla is criticized for their quality issues the shills dig out the worst example they can find of a major. The Ford Focus is basically abandoned, nobody at Ford cares about it. There are fewer than 5000 Ford GTs built since 2004. These should not be compared with an attempt at a mass market car Tesla bet the entire company on. These aren't cherry picked stories either, the Model X is the very worst car in the US for reliability. There are tons of stories of Model 3s being delivered with obvious build issues. Warranty numbers are broken out in 10-Q filings, Tesla spends much more per car than the majors. They're among the most expensive vehicles to insure because they cost so much to repair out of warranty. All of this is fine as long as you admit what you have. Ferrari's have similar problems but nobody buys them for the daily milk run. Previously, Musk used to blame these negative stories on the oil and gas industry. Nowadays, since Musk is trying to sell the company to the oil and gas industry, he's blaming negative stories on short sellers. |
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Posted: 8/14/2018 9:10:01 PM EDT
[#42]
Quote HistoryQuoted: That’s just Musk trying to sabotage the company... |
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Posted: 8/15/2018 1:05:53 AM EDT
[#43]
Rumblings of the board wanting the SEC to investigate the "I have funding" statement since apparently they aren't aware of it.
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Posted: 8/15/2018 9:07:38 AM EDT
[#44]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
He really needs to get the hell off of Twitter. The board needs to surround him and give him his "come to Jesus" moment and take his phone away. I wonder if he will have learned his lesson by the time the SEC gets through with him. |
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Posted: 8/15/2018 11:35:14 AM EDT
[#45]
Fox is reporting that the SEC has subpoenaed Tesla for documents regarding their privatization plans.
http://video.foxbusiness.com/v/5822465445001/?#sp=show-clips |
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Posted: 8/15/2018 12:47:28 PM EDT
[#46]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Fox is reporting that the SEC has subpoenaed Tesla for documents regarding their privatization plans. http://video.foxbusiness.com/v/5822465445001/?#sp=show-clips It's obvious now, the funding is not secured. |
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Posted: 8/15/2018 1:40:37 PM EDT
[#47]
Tesla stockholders are like the old ladies that own cats. They love them so much, they no longer notice the stink.
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Posted: 8/15/2018 1:51:30 PM EDT
[#48]
When will it end.
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Posted: 8/15/2018 1:54:14 PM EDT
[#49]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
When will it end. |
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Posted: 8/15/2018 3:10:08 PM EDT
[#50]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I hope it never does I'd like Tesla to succeed. I want all EV's to succeed. The U.S. produces around 10 million barrels of oil per day. Which is wonderful. The problem is we consume over 19 million barrels per day. Roughly 13 million barrels per day are burned in our cars and trucks. That's what we need to eliminate not for the enviornment, but because it's in our national economic interest to do so. That's why I want Tesla to succeed. Because if they pull it off, it'll push other manufactures to try harder, and follow faster. |
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