Yeah they're close to the 200k US sales limit to start running the count down clock on the credits.  I've seen estimates that they'll hit it in 4q17, 1q18, and 2q18, all depending on how well the Model 3 ramp up goes.

They're stuck between a rock and a hard place: they must keep selling S and X to keep the growth narrative alive, however marginal the growth.  But soon, those cars will trigger the 200k limit and begin the credit phase out whether or not the factory is ready to start pumping out Model 3s, and they desperately need those credits for as many Model 3 buyers as possible.

Maybe tonight I'll look for some new numbers on how close they really are to 200k US sales.

I keep saying it, but one day I am going to run the actual profit per unit needed to both service the debt and maintain the stock prices multiple.

It has to be something ridiculous.

Haha even the tiny Morgan Motor Company in England could manufacture cars faster than they can if they have the time, facilities, money.

And their cars are hand made of wood and aluminum!

The big 3 are just as desperate as Tesla for automation talent and the big 3 pay better. Tesla got a lot of talent on the cheap in 2009 when the auto market was in the shitter and GM and Chrysler were in bankruptcy but right now there is still more work then people so it's much more competitive.

Really? That's your reply?

Nobody said electric cars are not going to be the future, however at the moment their are serious issues with electric cars. The main one being the limited amount of charging stations and the time it takes to charge the vehicle, believe what you want but it will be years before this happens, and with cheap oil and advances in turbo 4 cylinder engines you can build a 250hp ICE that can get 40 MPG.

This thread is about Tesla, they are going all in with their battery technology and are slow to market. The Chevy bolt is cheaper and has already proven it can go 250 miles on a charge. So the 30k 250 miles electric car already exists and you can drive one off the lot today. Tesla offers nothing unique, they took too long to capitalize.

My bet is that technology will change and it's very possible hybrids or other technologies will advance the automobile industry. However Tesla is selling hopes and dreams while other companies are putting out competing products at a lower cost.

Tesla Model 3 has no FM radio and no bluetooth streaming. 
Controls for things like the exterior lights, air conditioning, and windshield wipers are all deep in menus within the LCD touchscreen. 

Here's a video of the Model 3 functions. 
https://www.autoblog.com/2017/09/27/tesla-model-3-no-fm-radio-no-bluetooth-streaming/

Are you asking for a race?     Cause I would be very tempted to take you up on it.

So quick question with all the talk of the crappy financials and loss on each car

So if I ordered a 100k model s today and they built it for me does it cost tesla 120k in payroll, parts, and delivery on that specific car?

Is that really true? Elon picks up that extra 20k for me?
Or is the loss on each car factoring in the cost of getting the factory up and running, r&d costs and other fixed expenses associated starting a car company from scratch?

No, I’m suggesting that the tesla model s is completely capable of making cross country road trips with a minimum of inconvenience. I’m saying that there will be very little time difference in the trip if I drove my truck or my tesla

Basically if a reasonable time for you to drive that distance is 35 hours or so and you believe that a tesla would slow you down significantly I’m saying I can do that drive in about that same time

Serious question: Do you think "Market Cap" is equivalent to Size?  
Without looking it up, how would you define it?

LMAO, even California has a low goal of 2 million by 2025. I don't think you understand cars or how many are actually produced in a year. 

I think I could beat you, in a rented Toyota Camry.    There would have to be significant money on it, to make it worth our while.  

Regarding your question about the Financials, I believe you could glean a lot of answers by looking at their published financial reports.  You would really have to dig in though, and pay attention to the details.  

Fwiw, nobody is saying that Tesla is incapable of making a functioning car.    Just, that they are incapable of delivering on the promises made, which jacked up their stock price, and debt levels to an unsustainable level.    

Amazon went through Years of losing money, and increasing debt, because they gambled that they would reach a point where they would be the Only Mega online merchant.  At that point, they gain economies of scale, and barriers to entry.  

Tesla used the same scheme, but against a horde of giant competitors, who were already finely honed from decades of bloodthirsty competition.

Tesla has millions of investors like the other guy I quoted above, who literally don't understand the definition of "Market Cap".
And thousands of professional investors who are riding that wave of exuberance.

LOL

I'm not sure there is a car in the world that sells at that volume.

“Nobody is saying that tesla is incapable of making a functioning car”

Are you saying that nobody has said that tesla is range limited and only good for city commuting?
Are you saying that nobody here has said that Tesla’s are useless anywhere but city driving?

Yes, if you want to have a race across country I’d choose something different to drive.
It’s pretty simple...for “normal” long distance driving maybe 10 over the speed limit I’m saying that the tesla can do the trip in around the same timing as a gas car

That’s why I said to name a REASONABLE time to drive that distance. I’m saying I can do it in a REASONBLE time. Like normal driving.

There are many posts in GD that say that is not possible.

It does seem like the argument is starting to change.
People said hybrid will never be a thing because they didn’t like the Prius
Now it’s hybrid has great potential
Then it was electric isn’t going anywhere because of the leaf and distaste for tesla
Now electric has a bright future now that every manufacturer is stating tons of models in their lineups in the near future.

We will see if tesla fails or not.
One thing I know for sure is that if they succeed  there will be some very angry people here. If they fail I don’t think I’ll be disappointed too much. Tesla has already bought me a car and a house. All I had to do was let them hold on to some money for a few years.
If they go under, I’m sure there will be a few similar options at that point. If there isn’t similar options I don’t think tesla will be gone.

At any rate, we both know that a currently ordered tesla model s does not cost 15-20k more to make than they sell it for when the current expense is the only thing factored. We both know the simplicity of the question and the answer.
And we both know that in a RACE across the country you wouldn’t win in a tesla......unless they made all of the super chargers have the battery swap optioned that was tested a few years ago.

For normal cross country road tripping it does just fine.
My challenge is to the people that believe it doesn’t to throw out an unbiased, non unique circumstance, normal  time to drive that distance and I believe that I can make it in that time.

LOL how many finance people feel that way?  There must be tons of them doing a on this company knowing they don't need to run any granular numbers to see the future.

Then we get the other side- "I love muh tesla car so they are a good company"

And yet the stock still goes up
I've never seen more irrational exuberance regarding a stock in my entire life.   Nothing matters to TSLA stock buyers.  It's always about "THE FUTURE" no matter what.  Very similar to Amazon, although I feel Amazon has a better chance of actually being largely profitable some day.

If Tesla bought you a house and car, it's not because they held your money like a bank, it's because you gambled that money.  It was pure speculation.

Your bet, whether you knew it or not, wasn't that they'd sell enough cars to turn a profit, it was that somebody else would come along willing to pay a higher price for the piece of the pie you already bought.  

If they succeed, it will be in no small part due to the government teat.  Little baby Elon couldn't stand on his own and had to suckle on FBHO to get it off the ground.

Reasons brought up by TSLA shareholders to justify the price.
-The Future!
-A sustainable future for the children!
-This stock is gonna let me retire early!
-I have a TSLA and they're great cars I tell you!

100% emotional investing, 0% fundamental investing.  Most of them are just happy because the stock has made them money thanks to the sheep who keep jumping on board.  In a sane world they deserve to lose their shirt for investing in such a failure of a company.  Then there are the nauseating Musk cultists who worship the guy like he's some kind of prophet.

You might want to let some of these financial lightweights know. I’m sure they can’t see the writing on the wall the way GD can

http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/tsla/institutional-holdings

Trowe Price, state street, blackrock, JP Morgan, and many others hold significant positions in tesla.
2/3 of the front page list increased their positions.

You might want to give them a call. I’m sure they would appreciate your analysis as none of those companies probably have any analysts on their staffs. Those big financial institutions probably don’t have any contact with tesla through their investor relations departments as they seem to have billions and billions of $ stuck in this sinking ship and probably have no idea that the failure is immenant because there has been a couple month delay in production ramp up for the model 3.

The institutional investors are all a part of the "NWO" of global elites who want to see gasoline cars banned for the greater good so they can force everybody to buy self-driving electric cars which the government can shut down if needed.

Of course! Everyone knows that! That’s why tesla will never fail!

No one is saying that failure is "immenant".  It's plain stupid to buy Tesla stock - Tesla's stock price is higher than the company deserves. 
Please enlighten us on one fact: How can Tesla survive, producing fewer cars every quarter?

Nice grammar and spelling, BTW.

There are some entry level cars that sell more world wide - Corolla, Elantra, Focus, Fiesta, Rio.

The cars the Model 3 would compete with (BMW 3 series, Audi A4) sell about 350,000.

The claim of 700,000 Model 3 sales sounds like more charismatic marketing deception from Musk.  People don't seem to care.

"Hey did you hear, my car won't be delivered when Musk said it would and it'll cost $10k more.  Now he's telling more lies about production numbers."
"LOL, I love that guy."
"Yeah, he's awesome, next level."

Thanks in the grammar and spelling

So just for clarity you believe that the 4th quarter will have fewer cars produced than the 3rd quarter?
Is that your contention? Let’s revisit after 4th quarter and see if they produced fewer.

Will tesla hit the numbers Elon states? I don’t think so.
What if he is 25% off? 50% off?
That’s still a ton of cars that will generate revenue.
Tesla is unique in the auto industry. Comparisons to traditional makers does not paint the whole picture in my opinion.
It’s amazing how many people I meet that ask me “what kind of car is that”
I say it’s a tesla and they say “who makes it”
The only person that’s ever said it was ugly was the driver of the brodozer that was clocking 4 supercharging stalls.

If the model 3 fails tesla is done. If people start seeing lots of model 3 on the road and become aware of the company I think it will drive sales of both model s,x, and 3. I think it will drive investors as well.

A few questions for you
Do you believe that the model 3 is just late in the ramp up or do you think that the 200 number is a legit prognostication of what model 3 Sales will look like a year from now?

What do you think is a reasonable number of model 3s to consider the Model a success?
What if they deliver 200k in 2018? Plus the roughly 90k model s and x?
Will that be enough revenue to keep them going?

What if they take on more debt putting super chargers on every corner?
Will that make them more or less successful down the road?
I think Elon is walking a knife edge. The infrastructure they are putting in adds value to the brand but the debt puts a lot of pressure on the company.

We will see. I still hold some stock that I will keep for hopefully a long long time but I’m only playing with house money at this point.

I e said before I think it’s a 50/50 proposition

Let’s take a little big picture look at the state of sales

2015 tesla sold 50,580 cars
2016 tesla sold 76,230 cars
Through 3rd quarter of 2017 tesla has sold 73,230 cars

They need 3000 cars in q4 to match last years number
I think we are going to see 35-40k in q4 with 10-15 thousand of those being model 3

So I’m not sure about your production question
I’ve always been interested in sales

If total cars sold was up 50% from 2015 to 2016 and conservatively up 30% from 2016 to 2017 I’m not seeing the decrease.

Teslas are neat. Any electric vehicle with somewhat of a performance orientation can be pretty damn fun with the instant warp speed acceleration. I really enjoyed the chances I got to ride the Zero motorcycles too.

That said, I will agree with the others in that they are still not the best road tripping car. Can it be done? Sure, I'm not going to deny that. The infrastructure has grown immensely the past few years. Reasonable time, however, is extremely dependent on the person. I just did a quick route plan from Madison to Denver, the last trip I did. According to the Tesla route planner, there was about 3 and a half hours worth of charging throughout the trip. Not sure how accurate it is, but it did map out the charging places. Seemed kind of neat. That makes a 14 hour drive into almost 18 hours. I can do 14 hours in one day, I'll hate myself afterwards but I have done it before. 18 hours in one day is way too much for me. However maybe you are the type of person to split that trip into two days anyways. If so, the Tesla would be absolutely within the reasonable time as either way you will be spending two days on the travel.

They are extremely competitive in the City though, especially if your work offers free charging as many are. A friend has not had to charge his Tesla at home in quite some time, which is quite a bit of money saved on gas/electric when you think of it. If all you use a car for is long distance driving? I think it loses it's edge. Not impossible, but not the best. But if you mostly drive it around in the city, can afford one, and do a road trip once or twice a year? It's certainly worth looking at in my opinion.

As I said in the title of this thread, Tesla's problems are in production, not sales.  Tesla can't possibly sell more than they produce. 
Tesla's production numbers have not increased in the past year.  Last quarter (Q3) they actually produced fewer cars than either Q1 or Q2. 
Obviously, Tesla doesn't have the skills to ramp up production. 

Tesla said they were going to produce 500,000 cars in 2018.  Tesla was either lying or incompetent - take your pick. 

Institutional ownership of Tesla decreased from 67% of the company to 57% of the company during 2q17.  It doesn't matter how many of the institutional players may be increasing their positions; the sum total of their positions is shrinking.

Why do you think they'll be able to produce 10-15 thousand Model 3s in the next ten weeks?  Tesla was only able to make 220 in the last quarter.

This is long, but worth reading, especially when you hear Musk state Tesla doesn't deserve its rich valuation, or slides unrealistic production goals that would tank any other stock, and it does exactly the opposite of forecasts and rebounds. (could just be a short squeeze, though)

I believe he is positioning himself for legal deniability when TSLA craters sometime in the future.  

I don't believe that TSLA is engaged in false accounting as ENRON was, but I do believe there may be similarities on how TSLA is packaged for investors - major (unnamed) institutions are financing and pumping the stock in a massive way.

Institutions that can plant puff pieces in financial news for investors to consume and influence them to invest in the company.

Retail investors won't have a place to sit when the music stops.  

When TESLA implodes - the pros will be long gone.

No argument here that being long the stock was highly profitable - there's not much juice left to squeeze, and it's still too early to short, but the numbers are increasingly against them.

Jim


http://www.baltimoresun.com/business/bal-bz.banks24sjul24-story.html
7 banks found to help Enron disguise debt
From Wire Reports
WASHINGTON - Seven major investment banks gave Enron Corp. multimillion-dollar loans that helped the now-bankrupt company disguise its financial condition, and in some cases, they knew that Enron was using deceptive accounting for the loans, a Senate investigator testified yesterday.

Subcommittee investigators said Enron - struggling with a secretly crumbling balance sheet - obtained financing of $8.5 billion over nine years from Citigroup Inc. and J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., which took in hefty fees and interest payments.

Five other investment banks had similar investment deals with Enron totaling about $1 billion.

Shares of Citigroup Inc. and J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. plunged yesterday, erasing $58 billion in combined market value this week, as the banks disputed the allegations.

The investigative subcommittee of the Senate Governmental Affairs Committee reviewed a million pages of documents, most of them subpoenaed, and interviewed dozens of witnesses from Enron and its Wall Street investment banks.

Some banks actively aided Enron in its dodgy accounting in return for big fees and favors in other deals, investigator Robert L. Roach told a subcommittee hearing.

"The evidence indicates that Enron would not have been able to engage in the extent of the accounting deceptions it did, involving billions of dollars, were it not for the active participation of major financial institutions willing to go along with and even expand upon Enron's activities," Roach testified.

Some of the banks allowed investors to rely on Enron financial statements they knew were misleading, said Roach, a counsel for the subcommittee.

The banks used complex financial transactions to boost Enron's anemic cash flow to match its profit growth on paper, according to lawmakers.

The Houston energy-trading company recorded the money from the bank loans as prepaid trades of natural gas and other commodities with an entity based in the Channel Islands off Britain.

ADVERTISING

Roach said Citigroup , the nation's largest financial institution, and J.P. Morgan, also pitched the deals to other companies.

Citigroup "shopped" the Enron-style deals to 14 companies, selling them to at least three, Roach testified.

Enron, which filed for bankruptcy protection in December, taking the investments of millions of people with it, used a web of thousands of off-balance-sheet partnerships to hide about $1 billion in debt from investors and federal regulators.

If not for the deals with the banks, Enron's debt would have been $14 billion in 2000 rather than the $10 billion the company reported, and its cash flow would have been half of the $3.2 billion it reported, according to subcommittee investigators.

If the true picture had been known, it would have put downward pressure on Enron's stock price and on its ratings from agencies such as Moody's Investors Service and Standard & Poor's.

Officials of those agencies, testifying at yesterday's hearing, said they were unaware of the transactions with the banks and that Enron misled them and withheld information.

"Why didn't the watchdogs bark?" Democratic Sen. Joseph I. Lieberman of Connecticut asked the credit-rating officials.

In a 1998 e-mail, a J.P. Morgan Chase executive in Houston wrote, "Enron loves these deals."

Enron officials "are able to hide ... debt" from Wall Street analysts, he wrote.

Jeffrey Dellapina, a managing director of J.P. Morgan Chase at its New York headquarters, testified that the e-mail was "inaccurate."

Officials of the two financial companies denied any wrongdoing, saying lenders shouldn't be held responsible for how borrowers such as Enron recorded their loans.

The transactions were "standard practice in structured finance," said Dellapina.

Richard Caplan, managing director and co-head of the Credit Derivatives Group at Citigroup's Salomon Smith Barney subsidiary, said Enron financings were arranged for a top U.S. company, using a common structure approved by a leading accounting firm.

Bank officials stressed at the hearing that Enron's former auditor, Arthur Andersen, had approved the company's accounting of the transactions.

Before senators heard the testimony, they decried the wave of accounting scandals rocking investors' confidence and the markets.

Telecommunications giant WorldCom Inc. made the biggest bankruptcy filing in U.S. history Sunday, less than a month after disclosing that it had hidden nearly $4 billion in expenses through deceptive accounting.

"It's clear that Enron was not alone in shady financial dealings," said Republican Sen. Jim Bunning of Kentucky. "Americans across this country are watching their savings and their pensions dwindle."

Citigroup has called the transactions with Enron "entirely appropriate at the time based on what we knew and what we were told by Enron."

Robert S. Bennett, Enron's Washington attorney, has said the company will continue to cooperate with investigations by Congress, the Justice Department and the Securities and Exchange Commission, and that people should not "rush to judgment."

Yesterday Citigroup shares dropped $5.04, or nearly 16 percent, to $27, a three-year low. J.P. Morgan shares sank $4.44, or 18 percent, to $20.08, the lowest since January 1996.

"Any time you get tarred with the Enron name, you are going to get whacked," said David E. Nelson, who manages $450 million for Legg Mason American Leading Companies Trust Fund, which holds Citigroup and J.P. Morgan shares.

Besides Citigroup and J.P. Morgan Chase, subcommittee staff members said smaller deals worth $1 billion in total involved Credit Suisse Group Inc., Barclays PLC, FleetBoston Financial Corp., Royal Bank of Scotland Group PLC and Toronto-Dominion Bank.

Class action lawsuits filed this spring by Enron investors and former employees have named as defendants Citigroup, J.P. Morgan, Credit Suisse, Barclays and other leading banks, alleging that they schemed with former Enron executives to bilk investors out of tens of billions of dollars.

Bloomberg News contributed to this article.

So I’m confused on your position
Sales went up 50 2015-2016
They are already about even with 2016 Sales with a quarter to go.

You have just stated that production is going down. Does that not mean that they have capability to produce more? I mean they have shown the can produce more right? That is what you said correct?
So if they can produce more and choose not to and still increase sales at a percentage rate that would be the envy of any other manufacturer would that not be a more efficient operation?
Are you saying that they are having a production problem with the model 3?
I agree. I’m inclined to give a little leeway as it’s the first quarter of production of a brand new model from a pretty new company.

It’s actually worlds better than when the model x was more than a year late and production started very slow when it first started as well.

Would you be more confident in tesla if they produced 60% more but only sold 30% more?

[sigh]

1) Hybrids still aren't "a thing."  Hybrids have been out for 20 years and have yet to make a significant impact on the overall vehicle market.  In 2016 hybrid sales made up less then 2.5% of the US auto market and it's not even a growth market.  Hybrids have been losing market share for several year now.

2) Yes, Tesla can literally lose thousands of dollars selling a Model S depending on which options you pick.  A fully loaded Model S has a positive gross profit but a base model has a negative gross profit. There are some estimates you can look at on the web but most of them are educated guessing at best but they mostly conclude that the gross profit is small or negative.  I've seen a detailed cost report from a Model S teardown and the numbers you gave are high compared to the best estimates in there but like I said it varies with options.

TSLA has been flatlined for five quarters:

Do you notice anything about that chart taken as a whole?

I see a few other consecutive flatline quarters in that graph

Yet here we are
Tesla will have doubled their sales from 2015 by the end of 2017.

A little help
Check out q4 2013-q3 2014
Pretty flatline
How bout q4 2014-q3 2015
Pretty flatline

Thank you for posting that.  Those are probably sales numbers, not production numbers. 

Tesla has the resources to design slick cars and sell them. 
Tesla does not have the resources to manage production of those cars.  That's not glamorous work, and that's not usually what investors examine/understand. 

So Lurch
How many model 3 do you think tesla will make in q4

Tesla didn't make a forecast for Model 3 shipments in Q4.  Evidently they don't have a clue. 

Don’t underestimate the mighty T.  They may lose money on every model 3, but when they ramp up production, they’ll make it up in volume.

Lurch
It just hit me
Do you know how tesla works? Nearly all of their cars are built to order. They do have a few inventory cars that were demos or service loaners that you can buy but almost all of their sales are built to order.

You can go to a tesla store, do an over night test drive but that’s not the car you buy.
You order one online to the configuration you want and they build it and either deliver it to your house or puck up at the store.

They do from time to time refresh the loaner fleet and demo cars.
It’s pretty cool in the demos
They are usually top of the line p100d with software emulation to make it perform like any of the lower tier models so you can see which one works for you.

They don’t produce to sit on a lot but they do have refused deliveries, loaners, and demos (as well as cpo from trade ins) available for purchase. They definitely don’t have the pockets to sit on tons of inventory.

Like I said in a previous post. Comparisons to traditional car manufacturers only go so far

How many do you think they will make?

I'll just leave this here

It's about more than just sales, he still hasn't proven that he can manufacture anything efficiently. You can run the numbers on their capacity utilization and see that it doesn't add up to any profit, but that's obvious when they've produced a little more than two model 3 cars a day to reach 260. They've already had 63,000 preorder cancellations, and I wouldn't be surprised if they take another big hit from all of bad news and big announcements from competitors. 

Answer my question, then I'll answer yours. 

LOL.  You think the extra 2% margin Tesla makes over a car sold through a traditional sales channel is going to revolutionize the auto industry?  Tesla's production cost is significantly higher then the industry average and more then makes up for the savings of not having a dealer.

I think that it will be 10-15k because once the production line kinks have been hammered out the number of cars rolling off that line will go up pretty quickly. It was the first quarter of a new model from a relatively new manufacturer My belief in that has to do some with talking with a tesla ranger (mobile mechanic that will fix minor issues at your home or work) who was about to start going over model 3 repair training and some with watching how both model s and model x ramped up.
So that’s why I think 10-15k

No
I did not mention margins profits in that post
I was saying that tesla does things differently than every single one of the other big manufacturers therefore direct comparisons only go so far.

That’s a whole lot of words you tried to put in my mouth.

I said nothing about revolutionizing the industry.
I said they do things differently and that makes a direct comparison to a competitor potentially not tell the whole story or tell the story inaccurately.

Incidentally, a 2% margin increase on a large asset is quite significant.
Any automaker would love to increase margins by 2%

I think Tesla is snake-oil BS sold to gullible idiots,  BUT...for a 2% jump in margin, the Big Three would have their boards of directors fellate you daily for a decade.


Auto industry is tough, yo. As Elon is finding out as he tries to leave the boutique market.