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Link Posted: 10/2/2017 10:00:55 PM EDT
[#1]
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Very cool.

$?
Link Posted: 10/2/2017 10:01:05 PM EDT
[#2]
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Quoted:
It's actually a little worse than OP makes it sound.  Tesla's guidance was originally for 100,000 to 200,000 Model 3s during the second half of 2017.  Obviously that number isn't going to be reached at this point.

More recently the guidance was lowered to an incredibly modest 1630 Model 3s during 3Q17.  They made 13.5% of that!  My personal estimate had been 407, 25% of their guidance, and even that was too optimistic.
View Quote
Musk's latest promise is 20,000 Model 3s by Dec, and that at least sounds reasonable. I don't think his goals of 5k cars a week/one car every two minutes put him in any position for long term survival against the big 3, with affordable vehicles, especially when he hasn't proven that he can run his line at that speed. GM can almost pump out a car a minute with their manufacturing process, 56/hr.
Link Posted: 10/2/2017 10:04:15 PM EDT
[#3]
Mosk is hoping to duplicate at Tesla what Jeff Bezo's Amazon. Mosk is probably smart enough to not get any of HIS money mixed up with Tesla's. When Tesla goes TU; Tesla's stockholders will the holding bag, and Elan will just ride off into the sunset.
Link Posted: 10/2/2017 10:04:36 PM EDT
[#4]
So once again does anyone want to suggest a reasonable time to travel to flagstaff ax from western nc?

And would anyone like to make a wager I can drive the distance in a reasonable in my tesla?

Money where your mouth is kind of thing
Link Posted: 10/2/2017 10:05:00 PM EDT
[#5]
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Quoted:
I’m here
Not too concerned.
Record quarter for model s
Record quarter for model x
If they aren’t cranking out the model 3 at a quick rate by end of November or mid December I’ll be a little concerned

Been hearing of Tesla’s imminent bankruptcy for 5 years or so
Been hearing about tesla killer cars for about as long

We will see how it plays out
To date none of the tesla is doomed talk has come to pass
View Quote
In the end, the major players will be offering the same product at lower costs.  Tesla lost the initiative.
Link Posted: 10/2/2017 10:05:19 PM EDT
[#6]
Read the book about Elon, I liked him before I read the book, but gotta say hes a real asshole, slave driving dick. He runs his people into the ground and burns them all out. Kind of has a Steve jobs arrogance attitude. I consider buying a Tesla thought they were the shit, but after reading the books, it’s all smoke and mirrors, I agree company goes under and get bought b pay someone like Toyota or GM.
Link Posted: 10/2/2017 10:05:36 PM EDT
[#7]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
I’m here
Not too concerned.
Record quarter for model s
Record quarter for model x
If they aren’t cranking out the model 3 at a quick rate by end of November or mid December I’ll be a little concerned

Been hearing of Tesla’s imminent bankruptcy for 5 years or so
Been hearing about tesla killer cars for about as long

We will see how it plays out
To date none of the tesla is doomed talk has come to pass
View Quote
Tesla is trying to takeoff, but is running out of runway. 
It's been a while since I looked at the exact numbers, but Tesla has enough cash to last another 6-12 months.  It's going to be interesting to see their financials for the third quarter. 
Link Posted: 10/2/2017 10:10:42 PM EDT
[#8]
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Quoted:
My surprised face.

Where are the Musk sycophants now?
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Busy blowing the Apple sycophants?
Link Posted: 10/2/2017 10:10:51 PM EDT
[#9]
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Quoted:
Hey, I think we're missing some people.....

hohohohoho!
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When in doubt, look to see if UAW is muscling back in.

Kharn
Link Posted: 10/2/2017 10:10:56 PM EDT
[#10]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
I’m here
Not too concerned.
Record quarter for model s
Record quarter for model x
If they aren’t cranking out the model 3 at a quick rate by end of November or mid December I’ll be a little concerned

Been hearing of Tesla’s imminent bankruptcy for 5 years or so
Been hearing about tesla killer cars for about as long

We will see how it plays out
To date none of the tesla is doomed talk has come to pass
View Quote
25k model x and s sales a quarter isn't going to save them. 
Link Posted: 10/2/2017 10:12:13 PM EDT
[#11]
Check out the price of the Bolt to the base model 3
About the same range but the performance specs heavily favor the model 3
The bolt is more expensive, looks ugly, and underperforms
I won’t be concerned until there really is a similar car really on the street
Link Posted: 10/2/2017 10:12:24 PM EDT
[#12]
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Quoted:
Musk's latest promise is 20,000 Model 3s by Dec, and that at least sounds reasonable. I don't think his goals of 5k cars a week/one car every two minutes put him in any position for long term survival against the big 3, with affordable vehicles, especially when he hasn't proven that he can run his line at that speed. GM can almost pump out a car a minute with their manufacturing process, 56/hr.
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Quoted:
Quoted:
It's actually a little worse than OP makes it sound.  Tesla's guidance was originally for 100,000 to 200,000 Model 3s during the second half of 2017.  Obviously that number isn't going to be reached at this point.

More recently the guidance was lowered to an incredibly modest 1630 Model 3s during 3Q17.  They made 13.5% of that!  My personal estimate had been 407, 25% of their guidance, and even that was too optimistic.
Musk's latest promise is 20,000 Model 3s by Dec, and that at least sounds reasonable. I don't think his goals of 5k cars a week/one car every two minutes put him in any position for long term survival against the big 3, with affordable vehicles, especially when he hasn't proven that he can run his line at that speed. GM can almost pump out a car a minute with their manufacturing process, 56/hr.
There are about seven weeks until December, excluding Thanksgiving.  There are three working weeks in December. 
No way Tesla is going to ramp up a new line from ~25 vehicles to ~6500 vehicles per week over the next seven weeks.
Link Posted: 10/2/2017 10:17:52 PM EDT
[#13]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:

Record quarter for model s
Record quarter for model x
View Quote
Read today's press release carefully.  Go back and reread the 3q16 vehicle delivery press release.  See the error in your statement.  Realize how Elon lies to you, and how easily you're fooled.

You Tesla guys...  geez...  
Link Posted: 10/2/2017 10:21:55 PM EDT
[#14]
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Quoted:
Is it a Muskle car?


I hope Tesla is wildly successful and leads the way into alternative transportation. But I want them to do it on their own dime not mine.

What Muskie clearly doesn't recognize despite being an absolutely brilliant con man, is that the overwhelming majority of the green weanies who would buy his car have virtually no wealth having invested in album collections and bongs, and not unlike Ol' Elon living largely on the taxpayers.
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There are enough people lining up that have the means to buy them that he will sell every one he makes. The problem is supply, not demand.
Link Posted: 10/2/2017 10:25:00 PM EDT
[#15]
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Quoted:
There are about seven weeks until December, excluding Thanksgiving.  There are three working weeks in December. 
No way Tesla is going to ramp up a new line from ~25 vehicles to ~6500 vehicles per week over the next seven weeks.
View Quote
Car assembly plants also do not run 24/7.
Sundays and a lot of times Saturdays are non-production days to recalibrate equipment and conduct maintenance that can't be done when the plant is in operation.
Link Posted: 10/2/2017 10:27:00 PM EDT
[#16]
Link Posted: 10/2/2017 10:29:03 PM EDT
[#17]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
Check out the price of the Bolt to the base model 3
About the same range but the performance specs heavily favor the model 3
The bolt is more expensive, looks ugly, and underperforms
I won’t be concerned until there really is a similar car really on the street
View Quote
The bolt is a real car, sold at real dealers, serviced in literally every community on the continent, made by a company with over 100 years of experience, good and bad.  Lets not even talk about the difference in quality.  The model 3 is still only being sold to employees at this point.  The bolt would have been made whether Elon was playing car company or not.
Link Posted: 10/2/2017 10:29:31 PM EDT
[#18]
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Quoted:
lol
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Quoted:
So once again does anyone want to suggest a reasonable time to travel to flagstaff ax from western nc?

And would anyone like to make a wager I can drive the distance in a reasonable in my tesla?

Money where your mouth is kind of thing
lol
Isn't it adorable though?  He still thinks the car matters.  He doesn't understand it's a commodity, easily replicable, possessing no unique technology.  The company itself is doomed.  The car is meaningless.
Link Posted: 10/2/2017 10:33:50 PM EDT
[#19]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
So once again does anyone want to suggest a reasonable time to travel to flagstaff ax from western nc?

And would anyone like to make a wager I can drive the distance in a reasonable in my tesla?

Money where your mouth is kind of thing
View Quote
No problem if you are driving a Volt and there is no place to plug it in and charge it up.

Just pump some gas into it and keep driving.
Either you are burning gas or you are burning coal.

Pick your poison.
Link Posted: 10/2/2017 10:35:41 PM EDT
[#20]
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Quoted:
If stockholders didn't revolt when he bought Solar-whatever, they are basically his bitches at this point.
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220, that's worse than I thought it would be.  I called it in the other thread, comparing Tesla's production line certification to GM's. People are stupid if they think you're just going to hit the on switch and everything is going to work, and cars are going to come pouring out at the ridiculous pace he claimed.  
When does it become fraud I wonder?

Because Musk certainly knew he was pissing on the stockholders' feet and calling it rain.
If stockholders didn't revolt when he bought Solar-whatever, they are basically his bitches at this point.
In a strange twist of fate, the Solar City production plant in NY is actually excluded from the section 201 trade case expected to crush chinese subsidized modules later this year. Provided that plant gets fully up and running it will have no problem selling every module that rolls off the line for a very healthy margin for the next 4 years or however long the tariff ends up hanging around for.
Link Posted: 10/2/2017 10:36:34 PM EDT
[#21]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
Very cool.

$?
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I think I saw an article that put it around 60k.
Link Posted: 10/2/2017 10:38:56 PM EDT
[#22]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
lol
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Quoted:
Quoted:
So once again does anyone want to suggest a reasonable time to travel to flagstaff ax from western nc?

And would anyone like to make a wager I can drive the distance in a reasonable in my tesla?

Money where your mouth is kind of thing
lol
I think he should race a meth’d up trucker and see who wins.
Link Posted: 10/2/2017 10:40:18 PM EDT
[#23]
No
I’m specifically replying to the post that said that the range was too short to sell them without tax credits.

My wager is for all the posts I’ve read in hear that says they are fine for commuting but not really for road tripping.

One of the biggest anti tesla statements I read is the inconvenience and lack of range

So anyone want to make a wager?
Link Posted: 10/2/2017 10:41:15 PM EDT
[#24]
Link Posted: 10/2/2017 10:42:17 PM EDT
[#25]
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Quoted:
lol x2
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Quoted:
No
I’m specifically replying to the post that said that the range was too short to sell them without tax credits.

My wager is for all the posts I’ve read in hear that says they are fine for commuting but not really for road tripping.

One of the biggest anti tesla statements I read is the inconvenience and lack of range

So anyone want to make a wager?
lol x2
uh oh. shit is now getting serious
Link Posted: 10/2/2017 10:43:15 PM EDT
[#26]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:

I would really, really like for Tesla to succeed. I admire Musk's pioneering spirit, factory direct marketing plan and awesome fast cars.. Right now Tesla is propped up with venture capital and he just can't get a handle on mass production techniques.
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He will.  The technology and resources are there to do it.  Managing it and making it happen are difficult, but it will happen.  Remember, GM and Ford have been at this for 100 years.  He has a potentially viable automobile manufacturing company that has been at it for what?  10?

Right now is the best possible time to do this for them.  The tech is matured and relatively inexpensive, and the expertise is in abundance.  But it doesn't happen overnight.  

I'll bet in 6 to 12 months, they are approaching their current estimated output.  In 18 to 24, they're surpassing it.

-Automation guy
Link Posted: 10/2/2017 10:43:18 PM EDT
[#27]
Unless you got 9 digits or more to your name like Musk, don't dream on living on Mars with him. He just wants to get off this rock and get away from the people on it. And he is good at convincing people with a little bit of money he is in the same boat as them and wants the same things they do.
Link Posted: 10/2/2017 10:45:03 PM EDT
[#28]
So you want to make a wager there DK Prof?

You can lol all the way to the bank if it’s that silly
Link Posted: 10/2/2017 10:45:32 PM EDT
[#29]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
Read the book about Elon, I liked him before I read the book, but gotta say hes a real asshole, slave driving dick. He runs his people into the ground and burns them all out. Kind of has a Steve jobs arrogance attitude. I consider buying a Tesla thought they were the shit, but after reading the books, it’s all smoke and mirrors, I agree company goes under and get bought b pay someone like Toyota or GM.
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Yeah, that Steve Jobs never amounted to shit.
Link Posted: 10/2/2017 10:46:34 PM EDT
[#30]
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Quoted:
Busy blowing the Apple sycophants?
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Quoted:
My surprised face.

Where are the Musk sycophants now?
Busy blowing the Apple sycophants?
Yeah really.  What did Apple ever do?  Psshh.
Link Posted: 10/2/2017 10:47:16 PM EDT
[#31]
Bear Stearns was the same way, until it wasnt. I still think Tesla & SpaceX are more reasonably priced than other premium silicon valley companies. At least they have some scrap metal and equipment that can be auctioned off if it goes bad.
Link Posted: 10/2/2017 10:48:11 PM EDT
[#32]
Where's the rocket surgeon who was braying that internal combustion engines would be obsolete in 7 years?
Link Posted: 10/2/2017 10:54:49 PM EDT
[#33]
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Quoted:
Where's the rocket surgeon who was braying that internal combustion engines would be obsolete in 7 years?
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Just to be clear, I'm not braying any such thing.  I'm just braying that Tesla can, and probably will, be able to pump those numbers up.  He certainly exaggerated those numbers to keep the interest and hype going strong, but I think he'll get there in time.  

Just brayin'  

Link Posted: 10/2/2017 11:05:30 PM EDT
[#34]
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Quoted:
SpaceX is great thanks to NASA.
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That's like saying "Apple is great thanks to people who buy iPhones"--sure, I guess it's true in one sense.  But the people wouldn't have anything like the iPhone if it hadn't been for innovation at Apple.

US Gov was paying $450 million per launch to ULA/Boeing, and SpaceX is doing it now for 1/8 of that just a few years later.  So yeah... there success is "thanks to NASA" but if you're intellectually honest you'd have to ask why wasn't ULA/Boeing doing it that well before SpaceX came along?  Why wasn't ULA/Boeing or NASA reusing first stages?  They were laughing at Musk until a year ago, saying it was impossible.  Now they're suddenly quiet....
Link Posted: 10/2/2017 11:05:57 PM EDT
[#35]
Link Posted: 10/2/2017 11:07:31 PM EDT
[#36]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
Car assembly plants also do not run 24/7.
Sundays and a lot of times Saturdays are non-production days to recalibrate equipment and conduct maintenance that can't be done when the plant is in operation.
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Quoted:
There are about seven weeks until December, excluding Thanksgiving.  There are three working weeks in December. 
No way Tesla is going to ramp up a new line from ~25 vehicles to ~6500 vehicles per week over the next seven weeks.
Car assembly plants also do not run 24/7.
Sundays and a lot of times Saturdays are non-production days to recalibrate equipment and conduct maintenance that can't be done when the plant is in operation.
With the AWS, 6 days 21 hours is the standard work week. If their delays are based on supply issues, you can quickly ramp up assembly provided the suppliers can catch up. It isn't hard to ramp up assembly as long as you can supply them. There are also things that you can do to increase overall production to make up for missing throughout.

It really depends on the specific causes.
Link Posted: 10/2/2017 11:26:43 PM EDT
[#37]
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Quoted:
Mosk is hoping to duplicate at Tesla what Jeff Bezo's Amazon. Mosk is probably smart enough to not get any of HIS money mixed up with Tesla's. When Tesla goes TU; Tesla's stockholders will the holding bag, and Elan will just ride off into the sunset.
View Quote
Nope. Musk has over $600M in personal loans secured by Tesla stock. He is literally borrowing money to buy shares. Ask the finance gurus how that often turns out. His net worth is around $20B but it's almost completely in Tesla and SpaceX stock. He'll almost certainly have to sell or turn over a big chunk of SpaceX to his creditors when Tesla goes under. And it is when, not if.
Link Posted: 10/2/2017 11:34:06 PM EDT
[#38]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
There are about seven weeks until December, excluding Thanksgiving.  There are three working weeks in December. 
No way Tesla is going to ramp up a new line from ~25 vehicles to ~6500 vehicles per week over the next seven weeks.
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I don't think he's going to stop production 2 times if he gets that shit show operating, so I'll give him the full 13 weeks. I don't think they're going to hit their number, but it's at least a reasonable and believable number. I also think he has some kind of major engineering fuck up on that line if he's still this far away from even running at the 5k week goal. 
Everybody keeps saying the prices of the batteries are going to go down, but I'm not seeing that happening for a while. The demand is about to skyrocket. 
Link Posted: 10/2/2017 11:41:19 PM EDT
[#39]
Quoted:
Chief Executive Elon Musk previously said that he expected Tesla to produce 100 Model 3 cars in August and ramp up to 1,500 in September, with plans to produce 5,000 Model 3 cars a week by the end of the year. 
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/tesla-model-3-hit-by-production-bottleneck-that-slowed-initial-deliveries-2017-10-02
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I understand that he wants to expand the model line to include a lower cost model, but I think that was not a good idea, hindsight being 20/20. 
Link Posted: 10/2/2017 11:42:22 PM EDT
[#40]
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Quoted:
Stop worrying everyone!

Soon, you'll be able to put down a deposit for a ticket to Mars, or maybe a condo on the moon or something!
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I'm looking forward to a 3 tittied lady.

Link Posted: 10/2/2017 11:43:12 PM EDT
[#41]
The logistics and cash-burn rates of mass producing cars are fucking astonishing.



The 3 is what the rest of the industry would deem a 'failed launch'. Now we see if Tesla's pockets are deep enough to pull it out of that hole.
Link Posted: 10/2/2017 11:56:36 PM EDT
[#42]
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Quoted:


That's like saying "Apple is great thanks to people who buy iPhones"--sure, I guess it's true in one sense.  But the people wouldn't have anything like the iPhone if it hadn't been for innovation at Apple.

US Gov was paying $450 million per launch to ULA/Boeing, and SpaceX is doing it now for 1/8 of that just a few years later.  So yeah... there success is "thanks to NASA" but if you're intellectually honest you'd have to ask why wasn't ULA/Boeing doing it that well before SpaceX came along?  Why wasn't ULA/Boeing or NASA reusing first stages?  They were laughing at Musk until a year ago, saying it was impossible.  Now they're suddenly quiet....
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NASA isn't competing with SpaceX, SapceX wouldn't be where it is without NASA's technical support and money. Everyone likes to give SapceX all the credit, but they aren't doing it alone. Do people who buy iphones also give apple technical expertise and engineering for free?
Link Posted: 10/2/2017 11:59:47 PM EDT
[#43]
I really hope that one day people talk just as much shit about me as they do Tesla.
#lifegoals
Link Posted: 10/3/2017 12:17:49 AM EDT
[#44]
Has PeanutBoy dropped in yet to make up some excuse again?
Link Posted: 10/3/2017 1:21:21 AM EDT
[#45]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Why wait?  Build one yourself...  

Link Posted: 10/3/2017 1:55:25 AM EDT
[#46]
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Quoted:
Read today's press release carefully.  Go back and reread the 3q16 vehicle delivery press release.  See the error in your statement.  Realize how Elon lies to you, and how easily you're fooled.

You Tesla guys...  geez...  
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Quoted:
Quoted:

Record quarter for model s
Record quarter for model x
Read today's press release carefully.  Go back and reread the 3q16 vehicle delivery press release.  See the error in your statement.  Realize how Elon lies to you, and how easily you're fooled.

You Tesla guys...  geez...  
There is a hell of a lot of money to be made off of dreamers. Musk isn't selling cars or rocket payloads, he is selling dreams to stock buyers. The stock investors dream of electric cars being the only cars on the road and rockets taking people to Mars. The cars and rockets are just props in his scam like a con man with a few real diamonds or a small stack of cash.

Musk doesn't care if any of his companies actually make money as long as people keep believing in the dream he'll keep making money off the rising stock price.
Link Posted: 10/3/2017 7:16:17 AM EDT
[#47]
This is very basic stuff.  Tesla can't get the Model 3 cars out the door. 
Thousands of workers, still getting paid, while the cars aren't being sold. 
Link Posted: 10/3/2017 7:23:46 AM EDT
[#48]
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Nope. Musk has over $600M in personal loans secured by Tesla stock. He is literally borrowing money to buy shares. Ask the finance gurus how that often turns out. His net worth is around $20B but it's almost completely in Tesla and SpaceX stock. He'll almost certainly have to sell or turn over a big chunk of SpaceX to his creditors when Tesla goes under. And it is when, not if.
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Mosk is hoping to duplicate at Tesla what Jeff Bezo's Amazon. Mosk is probably smart enough to not get any of HIS money mixed up with Tesla's. When Tesla goes TU; Tesla's stockholders will the holding bag, and Elan will just ride off into the sunset.
Nope. Musk has over $600M in personal loans secured by Tesla stock. He is literally borrowing money to buy shares. Ask the finance gurus how that often turns out. His net worth is around $20B but it's almost completely in Tesla and SpaceX stock. He'll almost certainly have to sell or turn over a big chunk of SpaceX to his creditors when Tesla goes under. And it is when, not if.
Musk can still make it out fabulously wealthy.  He owns about 25% of Tesla.  He just need to say, "Now that the Model 3 has successfully launched, I've decided it's time to move on to become CEO of that scam Hyperloop company."

And there you go!  Now he's free to start unloading his shares without any SEC disclosures.  The institutional investors dumped 11% of the company in 2q17 and the stock price barely noticed.  Elon can unload 25% over a few quarter's easily.
Link Posted: 10/3/2017 7:34:51 AM EDT
[#49]
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Quoted:
This is very basic stuff.  Tesla can't get the Model 3 cars out the door. 
Thousands of workers, still getting paid, while the cars aren't being sold. 
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The Fremont factory, under Tesla's management, employs four times as many assembly line workers per car produced as was required by GM and Toyota when they ran the plant.

Very expensive, and very inefficient for what's supposed to be a genius's technology company.
Link Posted: 10/3/2017 7:35:10 AM EDT
[#50]
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I would really, really like for Tesla to succeed. I admire Musk's pioneering spirit, factory direct marketing plan and awesome fast cars.. Right now Tesla is propped up with venture capital and he just can't get a handle on mass production techniques.
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If he hadn't eschewed actual engineers and traditional suppliers in favor of building cars like a software app - wouldn't be a problem. From somebody in the bidness of manufacturing automation - there was never a true plan from tesla to meet his lofty goals, and a goal without a plan is just a wish.

musk is the pt barnum of cars and his followers are no sharper than a sack of ball-bearings.
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