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Posted: 6/6/2003 7:01:38 AM EDT
[Last Edit: 6/6/2003 8:42:11 AM EDT by raven]
I went to Drudge and saw this headline: [url=http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A23064-2003Jun6.html]Unemployment Reaches 9 Year High[/url] Oh god, that's horrible, right? But those statistics are based on data collected three months ago, in March. In March, the stock markets began their strong reversals into a three-month bull run. The S&P 500 is up 25% since then. It's over 1000 now. [:)] [url]http://www.siliconinvestor.com/research/chart.gsp?lotemp=&period=120&chart1=ma&time=day&i0=1&chart=candle&i1=0&scale=linear&i2=0&i3=0&s=spy[/url] This is great, because unlike unemployment and other economic data which is based on past data, the market is FORWARD looking. Investors are expecting better earnings after selling off for three years. But the best part is when I remember the recession back in 1991-1992. For several months, the media was wondering why the stock market was soaring despite such a crummy economy, widespread unemployment, yada yada yada. Well, the same thing is happening now. All you unemployed guys, dont give up hope. In fact, I'd start sniffing around more actively right now for work. I think companies will be ready to hire very soon [:)] Anyone have any differing opinions?
Link Posted: 6/6/2003 7:04:50 AM EDT
[Last Edit: 6/6/2003 7:05:23 AM EDT by DoubleFeed]
Link Posted: 6/6/2003 7:17:01 AM EDT
Originally Posted By DoubleFeed: I think that the economy will completely collapse, because a Republican is in office, and you know how they like raping their loyal followers. Capitalist economies do not depend on companies producing things, or people buying things. Capitalist economies run on compassion. That, and Democratic presidents.
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DoubleFeed has stated the Liberal Democratic core philosophy very nicely. Thanks!
Link Posted: 6/6/2003 7:17:42 AM EDT
Big Capitalistic Grin [:D]
Link Posted: 6/6/2003 7:19:03 AM EDT
Another point. The fact that it's a 9 year high means that it was this high under Clinton, no? But wait! Clinton inherited the poor economy from Bush--it wasn't his fault. Naturally the same doesn't hold true now.
Link Posted: 6/6/2003 8:31:19 AM EDT
People focus on the unemployment numbers, but it is one of the lagging indicators of a changing economy. By the time unemployment numbers dip, the good news is months old. Just in time for congressional elections now. Just ask Bush Sr. about that tidbit.
Link Posted: 6/6/2003 8:33:49 AM EDT
I've already seen "Now Hiring" banners in the yards of a lot of mfg. and distribution companies here in Cinci. Haven't seen those in a long time....
Link Posted: 6/6/2003 8:40:29 AM EDT
I'm a Tech Recruiter and I just ended a 6 month layoff. Thankfully I went back to work last Monday-Hiring Techies.
Link Posted: 6/6/2003 8:42:58 AM EDT
[Last Edit: 6/6/2003 8:44:33 AM EDT by The_Macallan]
Originally Posted By raven: In March, the stock markets began their strong reversals into a three-month bull run. The S&P 500 is up 25% since then. It's over 1000 now. [:)] This is great, because unlike unemployment and other economic data which is based on past data, the market is FORWARD looking. Investors are expecting better earnings after selling off for three years.
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Exactly right. When you buy stock you're simply buying "expected earnings". When stocks go up, expected earnings are rising. Now, whether those "expectations" are rooted in reality is a whole nother matter. However, I don't see anyone talking about "irrational exhuberance" of this bull market run so things are looking REAL good. But the '04 election is still a LOOOOOOONG way away. Most sheeple won't really start paying attention to the state of the economy as it relates to the election until next summer. Plenty of slip twixt the cup and lip.
Link Posted: 6/6/2003 8:55:12 AM EDT
Just went over to the brain trust at DU to see what they make of all this. Damn, slim pickings. I thought they'd be all over this, blaming Bush and how it will seal his doom. One does mention the confusing disconnect between a report the slump is over, but unemployment's at a 9-year high.... [b]the_real_38 (462 posts) 2. The corporate media knows .... ... that this is the nail in Bush's coffin - you can scam people all you want, if they're not working or their standard of living is declining, they're not going to vote for you unless they're idiots.[/b] the_real_38 (462 posts) 5. You have to take your Education off your resume... ... that's what people say. In Bush's America, you have to convince corporations that you're stupid enough to work for them. We Democrats are going to have to form our own economy somehow - and refuse to hire or buy from anyone on the other side. Maybe we'll have to carry cards or something. [b]Brotherjohn (349 posts) 1. I found this odd, too. On the radio this morning, i tuned into a report in progress, and it seemed they were discussing how some new statistics just may indicate that we're moving out of the slump. Then at the end of the report, they mentioned (in passing) that the unemployment rate in May was the highest it's been in 9 years.[/b]
Link Posted: 6/6/2003 9:06:15 AM EDT
raven, iirc you were one of the first prognosticators of the last recession. since your accurate prediction of that event, i have been paying attention to your economic outlook. i sincerely hope you are correct this time, also.
Link Posted: 6/6/2003 9:43:43 AM EDT
You didn't really expect the DU'ers to have any understanding of capitalism did you? (Outside of the usual "how much for that bag of weed")
Link Posted: 6/6/2003 11:04:33 AM EDT
Originally Posted By CAMPYBOB: raven, iirc you were one of the first prognosticators of the last recession. since your accurate prediction of that event, i have been paying attention to your economic outlook. i sincerely hope you are correct this time, also.
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I also hope things turn up soon. I lost my ass seriuosly in the stock market. I had money in a JOKE called a 401K. Read all the paperwork before you sign it folks! Mine had a clause that if the balance ever went under a certain amount, they had the right to cash me out. The bastards sent me a check for $600 when the stock bottomed out. It has since climbed to a little better than half it's level. The Company basically stole from me. Since then all the stock I have owned is grazing out in my pasture. If the economy gets any worse, I'll have to start eating them.
Link Posted: 6/6/2003 11:19:28 AM EDT
This is all just temporary.
Link Posted: 6/6/2003 11:34:52 AM EDT
We Democrats are going to have to form our own economy somehow - and refuse to hire or buy from anyone on the other side. Maybe we'll have to carry cards or something.
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Wish they'd form their own damn planet-- on the other side of the Milky Way. Please.
Link Posted: 6/6/2003 11:41:59 AM EDT
Link Posted: 6/6/2003 12:01:37 PM EDT
The only potential problem is that the real-estate bubble might burst. The only thing that's been keeping the economy from totally tanking is the record levels of mortgage refinancing, which has allowed continued consumer spending that otherwise would not have been possible. If the bubble bursts before a recovery has really gotten some steam behind it, we could be in for a bad time.
Link Posted: 6/6/2003 12:05:36 PM EDT
Link Posted: 6/6/2003 12:09:39 PM EDT
Link Posted: 6/6/2003 12:39:24 PM EDT
Originally Posted By Imbroglio: This is all just temporary.
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Alot of things are. Thank God Clinton's term was too. Now we just need someone to tell him that.
Link Posted: 6/6/2003 3:08:47 PM EDT
so who's buying now?
Link Posted: 6/6/2003 3:30:06 PM EDT
Link Posted: 6/6/2003 4:03:02 PM EDT
[Last Edit: 6/6/2003 4:19:21 PM EDT by raven]
Originally Posted By gus: You didn't really expect the DU'ers to have any understanding of capitalism did you? (Outside of the usual "how much for that bag of weed")
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Well, that's the point! These people are utterly ignorant. Ah! This is exactly what I was fishing for. DU never lets me down [:)] [b]caledesi (2196 posts) 9. You should have heard the CNN whore Judy Woodruff spin this one... I had to turn off the TV. Bottom line: Blame Clinton - "well, when * took office, the [url=http://www.parttimetrader.com/comp-mt-062602-1.gif]"bubble"[/url] had burst." Shut up about the ficticious [url=http://www.parttimetrader.com/comp-mt-062602-1.gif]"bubble."[/url] Clinton passed a budget plan in 1993 w/o ONE Repug vote and that my friends started the greatest time of prosperity in our country. How many jobs were created? 22 million? And oh, no one ever mentions that when The Big Dog took office, we were in a recession, but did he whine about it? No, he took action. I hate these f*cking people[/b] So THAT'S the secret to economic activity, investment, and employment: Congressional budgets! So, what were the details of Clinton's awesome 1993 budget? Balanced? Surplus-creating? Deficit? Or is the fact that a Democratic president signed it the key? (this is what I suspect these fucks believe). This next guy is confounded by the economy/stock market disconnect, but at least he's not reverting to partisan ravings about how Bush wrecked the economy. He even has an inkling that the stock markets have [i]something[/i] to do with corporations. [b]ThirdWheelLegend 4. I need an economist to explain something to me... I don't get to see alot of regular 'faux' news. I work wierd hours. Can anyone explain the reasons and relations as to why the stock-market is climbing right now but the rest of the economy seems to be in the crapper. More of an analysis as to exactly how the REST of the economy is doing while the stock-market is gaining. My assupmtion is of course because the stock-market is a reflection of corporations. Am I at all on the right track? Can anyone help? Thanks TWL [/b] But of course, if he's looking for answers on DU, boy is he barking up the wrong tree LOL
Link Posted: 6/6/2003 4:09:50 PM EDT
My company had a record quarter a couple of lonths ago. I hope this one is just as good. The cheaper dollar is really helping our foreign distribution.
Link Posted: 6/6/2003 4:17:22 PM EDT
Our VP of sales showed up this week and said the last half of 2003 was going to be a lot better than the first half. I'm already seeing it and just hired four more people to increase our production to meet orders.
Link Posted: 6/6/2003 4:17:32 PM EDT
Link Posted: 6/6/2003 4:20:34 PM EDT
Link Posted: 6/6/2003 4:49:22 PM EDT
Originally Posted By Wolfpack:
Originally Posted By Red_Beard: so who's buying now?
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I am, what ya sellin'? [;)]
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a roland vg-88 a marc silber classical guitar an epiphone les paul guitar a godin multiac jazz guitar
Link Posted: 6/6/2003 8:18:36 PM EDT
Remember guys, that the unemployment rate (along with worker productivity) peak just as the expansion begins. If you weren't buying stocks a few months ago you probably missed your opportunity--I know I did. GunLvr
Link Posted: 6/6/2003 8:44:15 PM EDT
I moved from bonds to the S&P three months ago. I'm making some very good money. I may go back into treasuries/bonds for Aug-Sep, and then back to the S&P in Oct. The trend is your friend, and the trend is up, but I think Sep will be a negative month for a few years. Jim
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