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Posted: 9/13/2010 12:46:51 PM EDT
[Last Edit: 9/13/2010 12:47:41 PM EDT by targettarget]
http://green.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/09/09/study-warns-of-perilous-oil-crisis/

September 9, 2010, 12:19 pm



German Military Braces for Scarcity After ‘Peak Oil’


A study by a German military think tank leaked to the Internet warns of the potential for a dire global economic crisis in as little as 15 years as a result of a peak and an irreversible decline in world oil supplies.


The study was produced by the Future Analysis department of the Bundeswehr Transformation Center, a branch of the German military. It was leaked in August, and its authenticity was confirmed last week by the German newspaper Der Spiegel.

The study states that there is "some probability that peak oil will occur around the year 2010 and that the impact on security is expected to be felt 15 to 30 years later.”

The concept of "peak oil” is a controversial one, as it signifies the point at which global oil production reaches its maximum level and then enters a permanent decline. As oil is a finite resource, most energy experts consider the eventual peak and decline of world oil production to be an inevitable reality.

But the timing of this zenith — whether in the near term, or some distant future — is a subject of fierce debate.

Many prominent national and intergovernmental energy agencies, including the International Energy Agency, maintain that oil reserves are sufficient to meet demand until at least 2030.

The German military study, which was analyzed and partly translated into English by Der Spiegel, declares that once peak oil begins in earnest, economies around the globe — including Germany’s — will probably struggle with price shocks as a result of higher transportation costs, and "shortages of vital goods could arise.”

"In the medium term the global economic system and every market-oriented national economy would collapse,” the study continues.

The lead author of the study, Lt. Col. Thomas Will, declined to comment to Der Speigel, as did the German Defense Ministry. According to Der Speigel, the report was in draft form and not intended for release to the public and had yet to be vetted by the German military leadership and other government agencies.

The German military is not alone in its concern over the implications of peak oil. According to an Aug. 22 report by Britain’s Guardian newspaper, British government ministries have been privately canvassing opinions from the energy industry and scientists on peak oil, while publicly dismissing fears of an imminent oil shortage as alarmist.

Fueling suspicion, the British government has rebuffed news media requests to turn over policy documents related to peak oil.

Link Posted: 9/13/2010 12:49:17 PM EDT
Link Posted: 9/13/2010 12:49:47 PM EDT
[Last Edit: 9/13/2010 12:51:26 PM EDT by HeavyMetal]
Link Posted: 9/13/2010 12:51:59 PM EDT
Link Posted: 9/13/2010 12:53:53 PM EDT


Russia would back Poland, so good luck with that.
Link Posted: 9/13/2010 12:55:44 PM EDT
Link Posted: 9/13/2010 12:55:47 PM EDT
[Last Edit: 9/13/2010 12:57:02 PM EDT by Miles_Urbanus]
Originally Posted By WhyTanFox:


I LOL'ed.


The Germans are only a little behind schedule to start the next world war. Reunification was in 1990.


Militaries write contingency plans for everything. The US military has multiple plans on file to invade every country on earth.
Link Posted: 9/13/2010 1:05:57 PM EDT
Originally Posted By HeavyMetal:
I'm not worried.

http://clubmod.blogspot.com/2010/07/cellulosic-ethanol-235-per-gallon.html

Note that that is not Corn Ethanol, it is made from cellouse which we have abundant sources of. Everything from slash to sawdust.

Not to mention North Americ is awash in Coal and Natural Gas. And you can make plastic out of both.


converted one of my cars to run on e85. while i dont get the same millage out of a gallon, i do get aroudn 390hp at the crank on a turbo'd 2.0 liter.

we should be building nukes plants. i think 70+% of france's energy is nuclear. it takes a while to build em.

and supposedly the united states has the largest shale oil deposits in the world. more energy in them than the saudi oil fields. course its more expensive to make fuel out of it, but in the end, we aint gonna run outta energy.

and i wont even begin to mention coal and natural gas reserves in this country..

the problem isnt the energy, its the fucking environmentalists that are against anything that produces energy, heck, even wind since the blades of the damn things sometimes hit birds.
Link Posted: 9/13/2010 1:07:28 PM EDT
Originally Posted By targettarget:


Russia would back take half of Poland, so good luck with that.


Isn't that how these things work out, at least for a few years
Link Posted: 9/13/2010 1:32:54 PM EDT
There is no such thing as "peak oil".
Link Posted: 9/13/2010 1:36:26 PM EDT
[Last Edit: 9/13/2010 1:38:17 PM EDT by callgood]
Meh. Popular Mechanics said we'd be tooling around in these



by now. I don't put much stock in predictions anymore.

I can still get ethanol free gas around here. Things must not be too tight.

Link Posted: 9/13/2010 1:51:00 PM EDT
Originally Posted By MajorStumpDemon:
Originally Posted By HeavyMetal:
I'm not worried.

http://clubmod.blogspot.com/2010/07/cellulosic-ethanol-235-per-gallon.html

Note that that is not Corn Ethanol, it is made from cellouse which we have abundant sources of. Everything from slash to sawdust.

Not to mention North Americ is awash in Coal and Natural Gas. And you can make plastic out of both.


converted one of my cars to run on e85. while i dont get the same millage out of a gallon, i do get aroudn 390hp at the crank on a turbo'd 2.0 liter.

we should be building nukes plants. i think 70+% of france's energy is nuclear. it takes a while to build em.

and supposedly the united states has the largest shale oil deposits in the world. more energy in them than the saudi oil fields. course its more expensive to make fuel out of it, but in the end, we aint gonna run outta energy.

and i wont even begin to mention coal and natural gas reserves in this country..

the problem isnt the energy, its the fucking environmentalists that are against anything that produces energy, heck, even wind since the blades of the damn things sometimes hit birds.


I think the larger point is not necessarily that we will "run out" of energy, rather more to the point what will energy cost. For the last 100 years or so energy has been super cheap and abundant for the US and western economies. Once transport ceases to be cheap this will change things probably rather drastically. Hopefully fuel prices will go up enough in "phases" that actually allow development of new resources and also force "De-globalziantion" and start "localization".


Link Posted: 9/13/2010 1:54:41 PM EDT


What, are we back in the 1970's again?

Link Posted: 9/13/2010 2:16:39 PM EDT
Originally Posted By _DR:


What, are we back in the 1970's again?



I think had we been a bit smarter back then with regards to energy policy this issue would be largely moot.
Link Posted: 9/13/2010 2:21:08 PM EDT
Had we told the enviro wack nuts to FOAS wed all have nuclear plants by now

AFA Germany, I was beat to the point multiple times
Link Posted: 9/13/2010 2:42:53 PM EDT
Originally Posted By SIG-shooter:
Had we told the enviro wack nuts to FOAS wed all have nuclear plants by now

AFA Germany, I was beat to the point multiple times


Yup.. Germany too.. Their retarded green party has pretty much killed nuclear power in Germany. Most of Europe IMO should be building reactors like a mofo since they have very little in terms of other energy resources relative to their population and standard of living. OF course being the "brilliant" people they are, they do the exact opposite (mostly).

Link Posted: 9/13/2010 2:59:47 PM EDT
[Last Edit: 9/13/2010 3:00:40 PM EDT by kaiserworks]
I don't get it, didn't the Germans fight the last two years of WWII without any large supply of "dead dinosaur" oil but used chemical processes to make everything from synthetic jet fuel to rubber? Weren't they making synthetic petroleum as far back as WWI? Didn't Diesel make his first motor to run on peanut oil?

Why are they worried?
Link Posted: 9/13/2010 3:08:05 PM EDT
Originally Posted By Schadenfreuda:
There is no such thing as "peak oil".


Where is the easy oil, then?
Link Posted: 9/13/2010 3:08:15 PM EDT
Originally Posted By kaiserworks:
I don't get it, didn't the Germans fight the last two years of WWII without any large supply of "dead dinosaur" oil but used chemical processes to make everything from synthetic jet fuel to rubber? Weren't they making synthetic petroleum as far back as WWI? Didn't Diesel make his first motor to run on peanut oil?

Why are they worried?


Well, yes its true you can basically take most carbon based material and turn it into fuel. The question comes with efficiency, and the fischer tropsch processes and their modern day equivalents are not that great.

The issue is a just a supply problem, there will always be fuel, its just a question of how much you want to pay. Western/modern countries use an insane amount of fuel daily and there is currently no over the horizon solution. The problem is in fact low(er) fuel prices, as long as the "future fuel" costs more than the "now fuel" no one will buy the "future fuel", and when the price spikes on the "now fuel" there won't be enough "future fuel" to cover the losses of the "now fuel" since no one was buying it and there isn't the infrastructure to produce it on a large scale. Thus its a circular problem. Hence my hope for some modest price shocks (probably several) that enable "future fuel" to be produced in sufficient quantity to make up for losses in "now fuel".

Link Posted: 9/13/2010 4:02:08 PM EDT

Originally Posted By Harlikwin:
Hence my hope for some modest price shocks (probably several) that enable "future fuel" to be produced in sufficient quantity to make up for losses in "now fuel".


Modest price shock? Gas will have to double or even triple before alternative fuels really start to make sense. Do you realize the impact it will have if gas goes above $5 a gallon and stays there?
Link Posted: 9/13/2010 4:17:29 PM EDT
Coal gassification is the next "thing", Army wants it, good enough to run turbines
Link Posted: 9/13/2010 4:36:30 PM EDT
Originally Posted By 3rdpig:

Originally Posted By Harlikwin:
Hence my hope for some modest price shocks (probably several) that enable "future fuel" to be produced in sufficient quantity to make up for losses in "now fuel".


Modest price shock? Gas will have to double or even triple before alternative fuels really start to make sense. Do you realize the impact it will have if gas goes above $5 a gallon and stays there?


Yep sure do.

Most , if not all corporations will rejoice with the excuse they need to double or triple the price of everything .

Oddly enough I dont think wages will keep up.

So basically it will be like it was when gas was $4 a gallon. Prices of shit will skyrocket, your salary will stay the same , and you and everybody else will be shit out of luck.
Link Posted: 9/13/2010 4:45:35 PM EDT
Link Posted: 9/14/2010 5:59:54 AM EDT
Originally Posted By 3rdpig:

Originally Posted By Harlikwin:
Hence my hope for some modest price shocks (probably several) that enable "future fuel" to be produced in sufficient quantity to make up for losses in "now fuel".


Modest price shock? Gas will have to double or even triple before alternative fuels really start to make sense. Do you realize the impact it will have if gas goes above $5 a gallon and stays there?


Incorrect, most alternative fuels become commercially viable at around $3-5 a gallon and that price is going down.
Link Posted: 9/14/2010 6:00:57 AM EDT
Originally Posted By plowdriver:
Coal gassification is the next "thing", Army wants it, good enough to run turbines


That was the "thing" ze germans used in WW2... It hasn't gotten alot better since.
Link Posted: 9/14/2010 6:06:11 AM EDT
Originally Posted By dsteelman:
Originally Posted By 3rdpig:

Originally Posted By Harlikwin:
Hence my hope for some modest price shocks (probably several) that enable "future fuel" to be produced in sufficient quantity to make up for losses in "now fuel".


Modest price shock? Gas will have to double or even triple before alternative fuels really start to make sense. Do you realize the impact it will have if gas goes above $5 a gallon and stays there?


Yep sure do.

Most , if not all corporations will rejoice with the excuse they need to double or triple the price of everything .

Oddly enough I dont think wages will keep up.

So basically it will be like it was when gas was $4 a gallon. Prices of shit will skyrocket, your salary will stay the same , and you and everybody else will be shit out of luck.


Actually I Think you are right, unless a rather cheap form of energy and or transportation fuel is found and implemented soon there will be some rather painful adjustments to the way the western world has become accustomed to living. I think overall Europe has a chance of weathering it better since they have much more infrastructure that is not car/truck based like the US. They make much more use of trains and public transport. Then again I hope that I'm wrong about it all.
Link Posted: 9/14/2010 6:23:04 AM EDT
Originally Posted By kaiserworks:
I don't get it, didn't the Germans fight the last two years of WWII without any large supply of "dead dinosaur" oil but used chemical processes to make everything from synthetic jet fuel to rubber? Weren't they making synthetic petroleum as far back as WWI? Didn't Diesel make his first motor to run on peanut oil?

Why are they worried?

They also never had close to enough fuel. Most of their supplies traveled the last miles from the railhead on horse-drawn wagons, their air force was grounded much of the time, and they had to restrict fuel usage for an extended period to get enough for the Ardennes offensive, one of the objectives of which was to capture Allied fuel dumps. Yes, you can run your cars and tanks on a lot of things. None of them offers the EROI that petroleum has offered for the last 120 years.
Link Posted: 9/14/2010 6:44:04 AM EDT
Originally Posted By Harlikwin:
Originally Posted By _DR:


What, are we back in the 1970's again?



I think had we been a bit smarter back then with regards to energy policy this issue would be largely moot.


But people believed it would never happen again. You know, it was all a conspiracy theory and all.
Link Posted: 9/14/2010 6:45:39 AM EDT
[Last Edit: 9/14/2010 6:46:23 AM EDT by homeyclaus]
Originally Posted By plowdriver:
Coal gassification is the next "thing", Army wants it, good enough to run turbines


Ironically, thank the Germans. In WW2 a significant percentage of their lubricants and fuels were synthesized from coal, especially after the raid on the refineries in Romania.

ETA: Beat again ...
Link Posted: 9/14/2010 6:46:52 AM EDT
Originally Posted By homeyclaus:
Originally Posted By Harlikwin:
Originally Posted By _DR:


What, are we back in the 1970's again?



I think had we been a bit smarter back then with regards to energy policy this issue would be largely moot.


But people believed it would never happen again. You know, it was all a conspiracy theory and all.


Yup, just like we didn't land on the moon. Sadly the folks running the show have a really good track record of dropping the ball for the last 30-40 years or so. Especially with regard to energy policy.
Link Posted: 9/14/2010 6:58:19 AM EDT
Originally Posted By Schadenfreuda:
There is no such thing as "peak oil".




Link Posted: 9/14/2010 7:05:03 AM EDT
Got to find a good way to extract from the shales...
Link Posted: 9/14/2010 7:08:47 AM EDT
[Last Edit: 9/14/2010 7:09:32 AM EDT by Cypselus]
Originally Posted By Harlikwin:
Originally Posted By homeyclaus:
Originally Posted By Harlikwin:
Originally Posted By _DR:


What, are we back in the 1970's again?



I think had we been a bit smarter back then with regards to energy policy this issue would be largely moot.


But people believed it would never happen again. You know, it was all a conspiracy theory and all.


Yup, just like we didn't land on the moon. Sadly the folks running the show have a really good track record of dropping the ball for the last 30-40 years or so. Especially with regard to energy policy.

We the people got the energy policy we wanted, summed up as "Don't worry, be happy."

Originally Posted By macman37:
Got to find a good way to extract from the shales...

God forbid.
Link Posted: 9/14/2010 7:14:32 AM EDT
[Last Edit: 9/14/2010 7:17:01 AM EDT by callgood]
Originally Posted By plowdriver:
Coal gassification is the next "thing", Army wants it, good enough to run turbines


In the early '80s an Alabama rep, Tom Bevill (D) got some money put aside to construct a coal gasification (or liquification, don't remember) site at Murphy Hill on the Tennessee River near Guntersville. They cleared the land, 1300 acres, and did a bit of work and then gas prices and availability improved.

Perhaps since the Army wants it they will proceed, price be damned. Like E85, that's probably the only way it'll fly.

Link Posted: 9/14/2010 7:19:23 AM EDT
Originally Posted By Miles_Urbanus:

Militaries write contingency plans for everything. The US military has multiple plans on file to invade every country on earth.


Can we activate the ones for Canada?

We need to bring 2nd amendment rights to our northern bretheren!

And milk in gallon jugs or at a minimum quart cartons.
Link Posted: 9/14/2010 7:39:55 AM EDT

Originally Posted By BigHunt:
Originally Posted By Miles_Urbanus:

Militaries write contingency plans for everything. The US military has multiple plans on file to invade every country on earth.


Can we activate the ones for Canada?

We need to bring 2nd amendment rights to our northern bretheren!

And milk in gallon jugs or at a minimum quart cartons.

Google "War Plan Red". It includes the invasion of Canada.
Link Posted: 9/14/2010 7:44:10 AM EDT
There used to be a poster here named Peak_Oil.

He used to post long winded threads w/ graphs of bell curves and whatnot...


...is he still around?

Speed
Link Posted: 9/14/2010 11:51:16 AM EDT
If there's a decline in world oil production, the notion driving the article, it will come about as a result of governments prohibiting and preventing further exploration and drilling.

There's still plenty of petroleum resources available and technology that will make them accessible. It's question of time and money and profitability.

As someone has already pointed out, there are already good alternatives with more coming everyday.

The 'confirmed' information reads like a game scenario.
Link Posted: 9/14/2010 12:12:09 PM EDT
Originally Posted By macman37:
Got to find a good way to extract from the shales...


We know what needs to be done. The problem is the cost for getting it done and the environmental clean up during the extraction process.

It's going to be easier to build the nuclear power plants, probably cheaper and easier on the environment. We already have a distribution infrastructure.

Synthetic lubricants will extend the present supply of petroleum based products significantly.

I'm more concerned about losing political freedoms than energy shortages which I know will be contrived situations to take away even more individual freedoms and impose government regulations and sanctions.
Link Posted: 9/14/2010 12:20:13 PM EDT
Originally Posted By kaiserworks:
I don't get it, didn't the Germans fight the last two years of WWII without any large supply of "dead dinosaur" oil but used chemical processes to make everything from synthetic jet fuel to rubber? Weren't they making synthetic petroleum as far back as WWI? Didn't Diesel make his first motor to run on peanut oil?

Why are they worried?


Germany was woefully short of transport vehicles. If they'd had enough trucks then they might have needed more fuel.
Link Posted: 9/14/2010 12:21:06 PM EDT
[Last Edit: 9/14/2010 12:22:12 PM EDT by Tekka]
Every year since we first discovered crude oil, we've found more of it and have figured out how to get at more of it. There isn't going to be a shortage of oil for centuries. The only thing which is stopping us are the greenies who won't let us build or upgrade oil refineries or drill for more oil.
Link Posted: 9/14/2010 12:44:13 PM EDT
Oil refineries are upgraded routinely, although permits for new construction aren't granted. Still, we can meet demand with the existing amount.

As for having centuries of oil, that is true, however it won't always be cheap. Remember that measurements of oil still in the ground are at a certain price...
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