How many of you are planning to buy stocks the next time some sort of SHTF news causes panic selling?

BTW, some people might consider it unethical to "profit from tragedy", but I disagree.  I think that those who put money into the markets when hysteria is driving them downward help both the companies whoses shares are being sold off and the non-selling investors whoses assets are being devalued.

Nah, I prefer to buy high, sell low, and deal in volume.

Well at least from the thread last night you can get $369 from the City of Fags, CA.

If I want to gamble, I'll go to Vegas. At least there I get free drinks while I watch my money evaporate. [;)]

Forget individual stocks.  They shouldn't make up more than 5% of your total portfolio (basically play money).

I assume you're investing for longterm. If so, DCA (dollar-cost average) into a low cost growth-index fund (like from Vanguard). Buy and hold. Put X amount of $$ in every month  - regardless of the market's ups & downs.  That way you'll ALWAYS be buying more shares when their cheap and less shares when their expensive.



Don't try to beat the market. [b]BE[/b] the market, then kick back, tap a brew and watch everyone else work their asses into the ground trying to keep up!



Leave the market-timing to Ms. Cleo.

Saw a guy walk away from the craps table the other night with fifty thousand. I think he started with about five grand.

Nice way to make a living.  He even threw a shooter two, five hundred dollar chips, for rolling the dice so well.

Yeah, who do you think payed for all those casinos these bozos flock to?  The blue-haired lady with her finger duct-taped to the nickle slot machines at 3:30am?

No, it's guys like you saw.  Here's my bet... before the weekend was out he gave it all back, and more.

Using that strategy in a primary bear market like this one will wipe you out.  

Well, it hasn't wiped me out yet! [;D]

But you go ahead and run your spreadsheets, rub your crystals, plug and chug your statistical formulae, throw darts at the dart board, or do whatever you think will allow you to consistently beat the market... let's check back in five years.

Although I agree with the concept of DCA and long term [i]investing[/i] as opposed to trading (=Gambling) I disagree with your view on stocks. Stocks are an integral part of any portfolio. However sticking to one sector and buying stocks because its "hot", and without at least a 5-10yr historical return that you can track will do you no good in the long run. You should also look for good capitalization, prefferably dividend paying, low pe, cash heavy and a reasonable book value to price ratio. Also save up your funds and buy at least a min. of 100shrs. Invest in Mutual Funds first and get use to and learn the market that way. Increase your capital that way then get into stocks. Buying anthing less and you will kill yourself in cost, and the stock would have to appreciate exponentially for you to make any decent money. Next learn to use options to hedge your positions. Lastly. Have a target price to sell on the upside and never look back. Also have a sell price on the downside. Do not fall in love with a stock just cause you own it.

edited to add:

Investing works in levels. For smaller porfolio's say less than 50K, you may best be suited for a mix of mutual funds. Larger, you may be suited for mutual fund and individual stocks depending on your risk tolerance. 500k-1mil++ You may want to consider fixed income securities in the mix. Depending on your age and tax situation, you can then cater your fixed income part into different mixes i.e. corps, munis, govvies etc.
Investing really must be a perfect fit much like a gun. If it does not fit you or does not function to your liking, it will not shoot well for you.

But, who takes financial advice from a Necromancer?

Invest in the only precious metals that always keep their value during turbulent times:

SILVER, GOLD, and [b]LEAD[/b]

I'm not planning to follow the "buy on the dips" strategy -- I just thought that someone here might have gotten lucky with it.  

Note: I said individual stocks "[i]shouldn't be more than 5% of your total portfolio[/i]"
So, I agree with you [b][s]Lor[/s]Necromancer[b] that [u]some[/u] individual stocks are okay in a portfolio - depending on the indivdual. You even state later in your post that for beginners with small portfolios, a mix of mutual funds may be the best choice. I assume most here are beginners (based on the average ages I see on the other threads).
Excellent points. Discipline is the hardest part though.

"If the Markets Crash, Will You Buy at the Bottom?"

Just let me know when it will be & the number.  You might as well let me know when it peaks, too.  Oh, also let's see your track record.

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!

Well, if you are buying stock based mutual funds you ARE buying individual stocks, your just not concentrating yourself in any one position.

Most investors don't have the money, knowledge or the stomach to run a portfolio of stocks for themselves.  You really need at least $100,000, and even that's low.

The second problem is 99% of investors don't have the guts to be in the market on there own.

Proof?

50% of the money in stocks at the top of the market 3/00 came in AFTER 1999.  Part one, buy HIGH.

Septmember 2001 was the BIGGEST net out flows from Mutual funds EVER.  Part 2 Sell low.

Everybody is waiting for the "bottom", HELLO it was 9/21/01, and guess what you missed it.

"I'll wait for the markets to turn around before I get back in", um 30-45% off Sep. lows aren't good enough for you?

In this market you are going to kill yourself trying to "be the market", 85% of the time mid to small cap companies greatly outperform the S&P 500.  The late ninties were the exception to the rule, so forget what you think you know.

Small to mid size companies can rebound quicker from a recessionary period due to greater flexablitiy.

Also, for at least a little longer value is not finished.  Growth funds will come back but it could still be a few years.  Don't make a big bet on it.

Bond Funds are a HUGE mistake right now, when rates go higher, and they will (were at 40 year lows), you will get crushed being exposed to long term bonds.

PS.  Guess what the number one selling Mutual Fund Catagory is right now, yup Bond Funds.

So buying a mutual fund consisting of 300 companies is the same as buying "individual" stocks? [>:/]

"In [u]this[/u] market"? Long-term investors don't look at "this" market to make their choices - that's what market timers and performance chasers do.
 
Ever hear of VTSMX? It "is" the market - weighted towards large-cap growth and all.
If you really don't like the reality of the total market's leanings, add some mid/small/value index funds too.

It's NOT brain surgery. Really.

Bonds, hmmmf... now that IS brains surgery. [;)]

NO I buy at a constant rate regardless of what the market is doing. You gotta have faith my children that long term the market will reward the investor [smoke]

You got a point there [:)]

_________________________________

As far as bonds.
Bonds are great in a portfolio providing they are not bond mutual funds, as GSTN have mentioned. Here's why:

Bond can be swapped out for another bond:
1) This can be done to create a tax loss of set gains against appreciated stock.
2) This can be done in a rising interest rate to gain higher coupon but still keeping the modified duration of a portfolio.
3) This can be done to improve cash flow and shorten maturity duration therefore minimizing interest rate risk of the bond portfolio.

Therefore your exposure to the market is minimal and gives you a great constant return. Yes I said constant. I worked on a clients protfolio in my previous firm. His return on the bond portfolio in 97-2001 was 11% each year. Not avg return but return each year. He was also able to offset gains earned from stock sales. Of course rate were hig then. I expect his return this yr would be around 7-8%

You can not do this with a mutual fund bond fund. A bond fund is infinite and goes against all principals of investing in bonds. However if income is your need, then bond funds are the way to go.

HEaring you guys who insist on buying the indexes regardless of what the market's doing explains a lot about the current market valuation.

You guys have been indoctrinated to think the way you do, and have seen that investing doctrine work and make money for however many years you have been watching/participating in the market, because of the upward overall trend of this monster bull market that started in 1982.

P/E in general big caps is as high as it was in the late 90's when corporate earnings were kicking ass and future growth seemed unlimited. That optomism about the future somehow justified those prices.

Well, now we are seeing the prices in stocks matching what they were before the recession, but the "E" in the ratio is not there.  Not only that, there's a lot of justifiable skepticism about the verity of corporate earnings.

If you can't see that this is the faltering at the top of a 20-year bull market, and that the path of least resistance is DOWN, not UP as the baby boomers prepare to retire, then what sense does it make to average into a declining market?  You shouldn't be thinking about buying the dips so much as selling the rallies.

So where the hell is the money going to come from to keep pumping into the market?  The Fed has been doing its part printing money like crazy after 9/11 and dropping interest rates down to 40 year lows.  The strong dollar has been helping keep foreign money in the game.

At best, I think current stock prices can be MAINTAINED in an involatile trading range.  That means little promise of capital gains, so what about dividends?

Yes, what ABOUT dividends?  Most stocks these days don't even pay dividends, and if they do, they'd have to pay at least 5% to match risk-free t-bills.

So why take upon the risk of owning stocks when there's little chance of capital appreciation?  I think the big owners of stocks are going to be trying to SELL their stocks to guys like you, a little at a time, so there isn't a panic before you wake up that you're taking it in the ass.

AKA, a bear market.

So, put your money where your mouth is -- sell short and/or buy "put" options.

I just made some money off that earlier this week;  I bought puts, it dropped like a rock, it started to rally, I bailed on my position, and now I'm ready to repeat the cycle as soon as I see it start to falter again.  Long-term, I see that particular stock dropping by about 30%, so I'm not worried about getting wiped out.

[url]http://www.prudentbear.com[/url]

I got to hear this guy(David Tice) speak here in Dallas at a seminar. Boy was it scary. He made sense and backed it up with data. Talk about doom and gloom. But you know what, he could be right.

I just bought some SWEET stocks today!!  

I got a new looking A1 with trap door for $15, and an aluminum tele for $40. Did I buy low? When should I sell?[:D]

Every single dime I have in the stock market is in TXN. No bonds, no mutual funds, just stock and options. It's a gamble, but so is life. If you guys keep buying cell phones though I'll be ok. [:)]

(edited to add: since the market has been down I've been buying like crazy.)

So far so good.

So I should be a market timer?

I agree - owning individual stocks is a RISKY gamble, especially given the points you made so well.

Regarding index funds - In my best Mick Jagger drawl... [b]"Ti-i-ime is on my side, yes it is!"[/b]

I'm lucky - a looooooong investment horizon my ace in the hole. [;)]



Your points are undeniable [b]raven[/b] but in [u]my position[/u] I'll stick to the basics -
diversification, DCA, low-costs, buy&hold and rebalance.  I don't see this as a path to financial ruin.

Raven,

Emotion is a very powerful thing.  Like you, most investers also think that when a market is up it will keep going up, and when it is down it will continue to fall.

This is not the end of the world, or a horrible market.  Hell the dow was flat for the ENTIRE DECADE of the seventies, BUT that doesn't mean money wasn't made, it just means it wasn't made in dow stocks.

"So where the hell is the money going to come from to keep pumping into the market?"

That is where you are VERY wrong, the money is already there.  The is more money in money market accounts then EVER.  For every dollar in the market there is close to .30$ in money market accounts, more then enough to make the overall US markets go up MANY times over.

ALSO, the baby boomers are the top wage earners and investers and continue to dump billions of dollars into retirement plans, problem is much of it is going into bonds and MM, there is MORE then enough money.

Also, divedends aren't what you think they are.  They make poor financial sense since they are taxed TWICE by the Government.  So intead of giving pennies on the dollar to share holders they can expand operations.

Also, do you have any idea how far out you have to go to get 5% in a US treasury bond?  Remember the interest rate risk I talked about, bad move.

If you were going to by bonds corporates, high yield corporates, and GNMAs are the best values right now compaired to CDs, Treasuries, and Munis.

A: Most Mutual Funds have less then 150 companies, many with as few as 20 ( ie Janus Twenty)  Whether you are buying 30 names in a fund or by yourself the risks are very similiar

B: You don't understand that buying the "market" or S&P 500 as most investers see it is a NEW thing.  It has nothing to do with chasing anything or timing.  If I bought a small company index and you bought the S&P 500 at the creation of the US stock market I WIN.  I have made more money without changing anything.

C: Bonds are the MOST missunderstood device in investing.  I know you don't have any indea how GNMA bonds work so you have no idea if they are right for you.  Most people don't know that they can lose money in bond fund in a year.  How many investers understand the different catagories and tax implication enough to draw a grid of Agencies, Gov, Munis, CDs, Corps, and High yields?  Almsost none, is the answer.

I have a sneaking suspicion that most of the members here who have worked out elaborate investment strategies actually invest their own money in Krugerrands buried in their back yard. [;)]

BTW, the best investment I've ever made has been buying a house.  It isn't going to make me rich but at least I have a place to live. [:D]

That's why I like larger index funds like VTSMX and others, though I do own some Janus20 also.

When did I say I was chasing anything by "buying the market"???

You "win" what???

Are we competing?!? [>:/]

You have missed my whole point - I'M NOT OUT TO "WIN" ANYTHING!!! I don't try to "beat" anyone else - that's what drives people to invest their whole portfolio in Enron or Lucent. MOST INDIVIDUAL INVESTORS DO NOT "BEAT" THE TOTAL MARKET!!!

Did you miss my final statement:
In MY position I'll stick to the basics - diversification, DCA, low-costs, buy&hold and rebalance. I don't see this as a path to financial ruin.

LMAO,

I guess you will just take what you want then!!  

Take the women!!!

Pliage the Village!!!

What is "DCA"?

The markets are littered with the dead financial carcasses of those who tried to buy at the bottom and sell at the top.

Dollar-Cost Averaging is investing equal amounts  of money at regular intervals.

What ever fits your budget: $50/every mo, $100/bimonthly, $1,000/quarter, whatever. Just stick to it regardless of market conditions.

The theory is that if you invest X amount of $$ every month - regardless of the market's ups & downs - you'll ALWAYS be buying more shares when they're cheaper and less shares when they're expensive.

I do this by automatic investment for my mutual funds. The same amount of $$ is deducted automatically from my checking on the same date each month and put into my IRA mutual funds.

Many folks do this through regular payroll deductions into their 401k's also.

It's a sensible way to "ease" your money into investments without the worry of dumping wads of $$ into the market the day before the market starts a three-year decline.

[i]"I'm not really a market timer..."[/i] and denial ain't just a river in Egypt. [;)]

Though I don't agree with your strategy, I won't criticize you for the way you're handling YOUR own money - I'd hate it if someone did that to me.

I'm just curious why you "hate" mutual funds?

Thanks for the explanation.

I'm familiar with the concept but I didn't recognize the acronym.

Fair enough.Or Arthur Anderson & Enron Execs for feeding investors bogus info.[BD]Same here.