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Posted: 2/16/2006 7:10:36 PM EDT
What better time than tax season when we remember the financial strangle-hold uncle sam has on its subjects to consider where we think we will be in 2 years, 5 years, 10 years?

My thoughts:

2: Democrat president, more liberties either completely gone or infringed.
Another AWB (more harsh including confiscation)

5: More urbanized settlements, more property seizures (without constitutional reimbursements)

10: Slave economy or REVOLUTION!

Of course I am pessimistic.

What do you all think?
Link Posted: 2/18/2006 12:23:37 AM EDT
10-20 years , economic collapse, make the 20's look like a party. Politicians will spend us into bankruptcy providing for the only demographic group that votes (the elderly), lest they loose their jobs to someone who will provide for them. One day someone will wake up and say Those americans owe mwre than they can ever pay back and stop lending us money. It's all downhill from there. FDR wrote checks this country can't cash and payment is comming due.


“A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy followed by a dictatorship. The average age of the world's greatest civilizations has been 200 years. [Tytler describes the life cycle of civilization as from Bondage to Spiritual Faith to Great Courage to Liberty to Abundance to Selfishness to Complacency to Apathy to Dependency and back into Bondage.]”

written in the late 1800's and we have defanitly figured it out , one needs look n further than hurricane Katrina to figure that out.
Link Posted: 2/18/2006 6:11:51 PM EDT

10-20 years , economic collapse, make the 20's look like a party. Politicians will spend us into bankruptcy providing for the only demographic group that votes (the elderly), lest they loose their jobs to someone who will provide for them. One day someone will wake up and say Those americans owe mwre than they can ever pay back and stop lending us money. It's all downhill from there. FDR wrote checks this country can't cash and payment is comming due.


Cost of the Iraq war could fund Social Security for the next 75-100 years without any additional money WTF you talking about?
Link Posted: 2/18/2006 6:43:27 PM EDT
Funny how we can always tax current tax payers to pay money to other tax payers in the form of social security...but we can't tax current tax payers to pay money to other tax payers in the form of Defense spending...

How much of that $400 billion spent "on the Iraq war" actually LEAVES the US economy as in direct money transfers to non-Americans?

It's important that most of the reconstruction and service industry work is being done by US contractors like Halliburton.... important because US $ don't leave the US.

So the Army needs to replace virtually the whole fleet of humvees... that means $ to GM to replace the trucks... ditto with all the other expenses...

Right now the Federal budget is 2.77 TRILLION PER YEAR. The US GDP is something like 20 TRILLION per year.

That's alot of money. Where does it come from? A booming economy. Look at the housing market... it's been red hot for the last 2 or 3 years. NEW HOMES being built and bought at record numbers. THAT MEANS MILLIONS OF AMERICANS ARE BUYING HOMES...I.E. HAVE THE MONEY TO DO SO....

If the economy was squeesing out the Middle class, there'd be no boom in home sales. If the "underclass" was growing by leaps and bounds, there'd be no boom in homesales.....

You can fake alot of things, but you can't fake home sales.


Link Posted: 2/18/2006 8:07:40 PM EDT

Originally Posted By JusAdBellum:
Funny how we can always tax current tax payers to pay money to other tax payers in the form of social security...but we can't tax current tax payers to pay money to other tax payers in the form of Defense spending...

How much of that $400 billion spent "on the Iraq war" actually LEAVES the US economy as in direct money transfers to non-Americans?

It's important that most of the reconstruction and service industry work is being done by US contractors like Halliburton.... important because US $ don't leave the US.

So the Army needs to replace virtually the whole fleet of humvees... that means $ to GM to replace the trucks... ditto with all the other expenses...

Right now the Federal budget is 2.77 TRILLION PER YEAR. The US GDP is something like 20 TRILLION per year.

That's alot of money. Where does it come from? A booming economy. Look at the housing market... it's been red hot for the last 2 or 3 years. NEW HOMES being built and bought at record numbers. THAT MEANS MILLIONS OF AMERICANS ARE BUYING HOMES...I.E. HAVE THE MONEY TO DO SO....

If the economy was squeesing out the Middle class, there'd be no boom in home sales. If the "underclass" was growing by leaps and bounds, there'd be no boom in homesales.....

You can fake alot of things, but you can't fake home sales.






true you cant fake home sales, but the vast majority of those homes are bought with financing, either 80/20's or 100%'s. Not a good sign, and the majority of our manufactoring is done overseas, not here.
Sure Dell computers are assembled here, but the parts are put together overseas, etc.etc.etc. It is nowhere near as good as the mainstream media wants us to think.
Link Posted: 2/19/2006 5:11:38 AM EDT
You have to be careful looking at things like home sales as "proof" that the economy is strong. While I agree that was once a good indicator, no more however. Society has shifted and the tricks used to spoof strength in the economy have become far more twisted.

There are entire neighborhoods where lenders like Washington Mutual have done 0 down financing on homes. Due to the housing "boom" most of these homes were bought for market peak prices, with no money down. As a result the owners find themselves with very high payments, even if there interest rate is decent. Their payments are based on full "peak" value of the home, contain escrow for higher than ever taxes, and mortgage insurance. In addition they have no equity in these homes so should our "strong" economy leave them without a job even for a month or two, they have no savings, and no way or chance of selling the home they have financed.

Even in the case where homes have not been down in a zero down format, their are tons of homes out there that have been sold with 80/10/10's to get rid of things like mortgage insurance, but at the same time it means people bought a home that was more expensive then their comfort level.

Let me explain that. If you buy a home where you have the cash to pay for 20% outright, you are immediately in an equitable position. Short of a serious collapse you should be able to get out from under that home if need be by compormising some to all of your equity. Thanks to 80/10/10's or for that matter 0-10% down loans (which incur higher costs with mortgage insurance) people have been buying more expensive homes than they should have.

Before long I think you will see the HUD lists growing in your area. Already the number of home foreclosures is rising.

The money being spent on the Iraq war doesn't exist. FDR may have written checks we can't cover, but don't lose sight of the fact that our current President is making FDR look like a miser.

Worse yet we have people writing books like, "The World is flat" to make us all feel better about jobs shifting to India and other countries.

When will we as a people wake up? China's World is not flat, at least not from an outbound perspective. It's plenty flat when it comes to collecting money from the rest of the world, buying up huge chunks of the US now that are moeny is devaluing at a record pace. North Korea, not too flat there... We sit back and consume goods from slave labor countries like there is no tomorrow.

Ya know what? We're right. Remember that each time you consume a Chinese good. That money channeled right back to fuel the Military/Industrial Complex of a country that places no value on human life, has a billion man army, and all the technology they need.

We are headed for total economic collapse, because we are writing so many checks we can't cash. The dollar is already worth about 45% less vs. Euro than when the Euro was introduced. The World Bankers are looting what's left of our economy while they strengthen others. The reality is there's a higher return available to them in other economies now and other economies able to produce goods at the rate America did in the 40's. In the end it's all money, it's all power, they'll be fine. You'll live in a mud hut.

Yep. The economy is strong, everything is good, sleep, it will all be OK.
Link Posted: 2/19/2006 5:14:24 AM EDT
As far as home sales are concerned, how many of people live in a place like I do. Where, a few years ago there used to be open fields, there are now ever expanding subdivisions. And many of them are populated with "McMansions", as I've seen them termed.
Sure, they're being built and bought. But how many of those neew homes are 50% empty on the inside and 100% leveraged on the mortgage? How many of those new homes are occuped by famalies who have several credit cards max'd out and are a richer version of being "one paycheck away from being on the street".
Link Posted: 2/26/2006 4:34:37 PM EDT
10-20 years, economic collapse, states spitting up, a second american revolutionhug.gif
Link Posted: 2/26/2006 8:49:18 PM EDT
I too think we are heading for a total economic collapse. I think it will be worse than the 1929 crash also.

When the collapse occurs, I believe eventually companies will have to re-open factories etc that have gone overseas back in the US to give people jobs.
Link Posted: 2/27/2006 5:39:01 AM EDT

Originally Posted By IndianaDean:
I too think we are heading for a total economic collapse. I think it will be worse than the 1929 crash also.

When the collapse occurs, I believe eventually companies will have to re-open factories etc that have gone overseas back in the US to give people jobs.



If they can afford it. Also, throw in the fact that a lot of folks are saying that the bird flu could give us a pandemic the likes of which the world has never seen.
Link Posted: 3/5/2006 5:57:38 PM EDT
[Last Edit: 3/5/2006 5:58:22 PM EDT by ZeroOne]
5 years: We will have a Democratic President / Congress. We will be out of IRAQ with a small contingent still there. We will see 2 or three other countries making waves. The U.S. standards of security will go to hell. Another Major Terrorist attack will occur. The President and Congress will do nothing but serve "Lip Service" with IRAQ as an example forgetting about Afghanistan. We will do nothing but blame President Bush and the current administration.

7 years: We are still in debt. The economy is currently at a stand still due to unrest in the world. We dont take a stand on any other country and send our troops to every "Hot Spot" without making a commitment. We are too afraid of committing due to OEF / OIF.

10 years: Nothing changes. Either Democrat or Republican majority. Nothing changes. Economy goes up and down. WE learn nothing. The world is still the same. Terrorists disrupt vacation spots. The U.S. and world media only reports what makes for good juicy news. The populations believes everything they hear on T.V.

The world goes on.

I have ammo, water and a bike.

Good Luck.
Link Posted: 3/7/2006 1:13:35 PM EDT
2 - Iran dropped the bomb, the ME is now glass.

5 - Russia and Communism try to take advantage, we give up Europe in that fight.

10 - we all speak Cantonese.


that was my pessimistic view.
Link Posted: 3/10/2006 10:40:17 AM EDT
We can only hope!
Link Posted: 3/13/2006 11:59:53 PM EDT
The problems you have all spoken of however will come as a result of a pandemic, not all that other speculation non-sense. It will be the reset button that will take everything back to the "way" things use to be. The fed has a "fairly" good grip on fiscal policy, and besides, many of the things that caused that stock market crash in the 30's are not even allowed these days. It will be a pandemic of some sort and I am willing to bet a case of 7.62X39 on that.
Link Posted: 3/14/2006 8:45:36 PM EDT
It sounds pretty ugly.
Link Posted: 3/14/2006 8:49:53 PM EDT
Lock and load!
Link Posted: 3/15/2006 4:33:10 AM EDT

Originally Posted By ljtag:
The problems you have all spoken of however will come as a result of a pandemic, not all that other speculation non-sense. It will be the reset button that will take everything back to the "way" things use to be. The fed has a "fairly" good grip on fiscal policy, and besides, many of the things that caused that stock market crash in the 30's are not even allowed these days. It will be a pandemic of some sort and I am willing to bet a case of 7.62X39 on that.



Yup with something as big and complex as the economy, there is definatly only 1 way to cause problems?? <sarchasm off>

I know alot of what caused the 30's has been remidied , but there are thousands of variables , some of wich the fed has NO control over.
Link Posted: 3/15/2006 7:50:02 AM EDT
tag
Link Posted: 3/20/2006 11:32:27 PM EDT

Originally Posted By sprayandpray:

Originally Posted By ljtag:
The problems you have all spoken of however will come as a result of a pandemic, not all that other speculation non-sense. It will be the reset button that will take everything back to the "way" things use to be. The fed has a "fairly" good grip on fiscal policy, and besides, many of the things that caused that stock market crash in the 30's are not even allowed these days. It will be a pandemic of some sort and I am willing to bet a case of 7.62X39 on that.



Yup with something as big and complex as the economy, there is definatly only 1 way to cause problems?? <sarchasm off>

I know alot of what caused the 30's has been remidied , but there are thousands of variables , some of wich the fed has NO control over.



Who said there was only one way? I said that would be the way. The economy crashing alone is not going to bring about revolution and all that other stuff that was being talked about. History has shown that very well. But a pandemic, while wiping out half the population, very well could bring about all that stuff that everyone is talking about, like revolution ect. Dude, work on your reading comprehention skills if your gonna try and be funny!
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