If a chunk of rock is going to impact us, we pretty much have it coming.

THIS.  If it was scientifically verifiable that it would hit then money would be no object and every scientist in the world would be tacking the problem.

1,200 ft don't sound like an extinction level impact, but I'm not sure and definitely not an expert.

We don't currently have any technology to divert an asteroid. In fact, there's enough error that we might just end up taking an asteroid that was going to be a near miss, like Apophis, and changing its course to be on a direct collision course with earth.

We went from blowing up rockets to landing on the moon in about 10 years.  It could be done if the threat was sufficient to get the $ flowing.

It's the math and physics that's the problem. And that's not going to change. We can't even tell the difference between a dead hit and a near miss.

Imagine you've got a 2 MOA gun and a 1 MOA target. And it's a two mile shot, with unpredictable winds. And someone on the other side is trying to devise a way to keep your bullet from hitting their target. That's kind of the level of the problem we're dealing with here. There are too many factors, and the margin for error is too small.

You can't even tell if the bullet is going to hit the target, and anything you did to try and steer it off course might in fact be the very thing that caused it to hit.

I think this is the perfect analysis.  There are just too many gravitational forces out there.  A precise or even likely calculation of trajectory is at best a pretty good guess. Between now and the expected date of impact there are many things that could affect the asteroid's trajectory in subtle ways that might make even a good guess way off course.

We've built sattelites that have rendezvoused with asteroids in the past. We can make good estimates where an asteroid is headed. From their make a calculation as to which direction most likely pushes the asteroid off the plane of impact. Then detonate a (near) surface nuke to ablate material and provide a slight deviation in course.

Repeat as needed.

The key is detection time. When we're talking about years before impact it only takes a tiny amount of course change to make impact extremely unlikely.

I'm of the opinion we should build the capability and keep 5 or 10 on standby for relatively short notice engagement.

Again, we would stand just as much chance of steering an asteroid into the earth as diverting it. If the asteroid is far enough away that we can successfully land something on it, then it's too far away to say with any degree of certainty that it's actually going to hit.

There are too many variables.

But let's say we could predict an asteroid was going to hit the earth with great certainty. We don't have any reasonable way to divert it. The nuclear option would probably just turn it into several pieces, increasing the chance of impact, and the solar sail thing is purely hypothetical. We just don't have the technology.

Supposedly, if the mass of the original rock is sufficient to generate its own gravity, even if it were blown to pieces the gravitational forces could cause it to consolidate back into one object.  Then you have a radioactive asteroid or closely-knit pieces of it on roughly the same trajectory.

This is from the book.

The coverup that NASA is supposedly involved in is that they have known all of this for some time, i.e., they can't do anything to stop it.

I disagree with both of your ascertations.  Their are many variables, most of them favor a miss. Even if you break an asteroid up, smaller impact pieces are more likely to destroy themselves in the atmosphere with less problems caused to humans.  By detonating nuclear weapons from the side, you push all the material in a chosen direction, the path calculated most likely to reduce impact probability.

Minute deviations in angle and velocity quickly stack over extended periods of time. Even in the extremely unlikely event that a human caused deviation leads to a future impact (after a few trips around the sun), you have bought time to build more trajectory changing vehicles.

The amount of time involved for reconsolidation from the small amount of gravity involved is extremely long.

The book is complete bunk and anyone who believes it is lacking in critical thinking capability.

I can't say that it's going to hit the earth. Obviously that's a conspiracy theory (not that that's necessarily a bad thing, mind you).

But what is a fact is that if the US said they had a way to deflect it, that would carry less credibility than Nazi Germany claiming they had a wonder weapon to win WWII. You could pretty much write it off as a lie to avoid panic.

If it's gonna hit, it's gonna hit, and there's nothing we can do to stop it. Anyone who seriously believes this thing is going to impact the earth should repent and pray. There's just nothing else to be done for it.

Link?  Not saying you're wrong, but I would think an object hurtling through space at 28,000 miles per hour would consolidate back into one mass pretty quickly if the gravity is sufficient.

Well, purely hypothetically, we would have to divert the asteroid from years out to have any chance of success. So it wouldn't surprise me if any attempt to do that would by definition allow enough time for reconsolidation.

I don't know about the book, but the only thing I've seen in this thread that's complete bunk is the idea that we have the technology to accurately identify an incoming asteroid, much less be able to divert it. That's pure fantasy.

Pretty much.

--Yes, it's based on a "vision" originally.  Lots of false prophets out there, no doubt at all.
--Author claims to have gotten corroborating evidence from NASA personnel who forbid their names to be used.
--No one disputes that the asteroid Apophis will make a near miss of Earth in 2029.
--It could miss the Earth in 2029, hit it in 2029, or hit it on another pass  years later.  Chances are it or another object will eventually hit
even if the timeline and/or specific object is incorrect.

My take:  It's worth watching.  Don't necessarily build an underground bunker unless you have the disposable income or just want one.  Just don't be surprised if in 5 years or so NASA suddenly starts reassuring people "that object won't hit us" even as it becomes more and more visible.  By then it will be closer and the calculations might be more precise.

It's like the Yellowstone caldera:  It might never blow, but you never know.

Let's put some math behind it.  We will assume this is an Iron asteroid 1200ft (365.76M) across in a sphere shape.  Specific density of Iron is 7,870kg per cubic meter.  The Radius of the iron asteroid is 182.88m.  V=4pi ((r^3)/3), so Volume of this asteroid is 25,620,479.201 cubic meters.  Total mass is 201,633,171,311.87kg.  Utilizing this gravity calculator https://www.ajdesigner.com/phpgravity/gravity_acceleration_equation.php#ajscroll we can plug those numbers in and determine surface gravity would cause acceleration of 0.0004022764841996 m/s^2.  And that's the low gravity experienced while it's still all together.  As parts are blown thousands of kilometers, the effect of gravity diffuses making the acceleration smaller.  Over time, much of it will coalesce, but much of what gets removed won't be back for years to come.

If it's wormwood, I won't be here. Won't have been here for at least 3-4 years prior.

The timeline is very interesting to me. If you think the millennial kingdom will begin 2000 years after the crucifixion, then that would place Apophis in the early second half of the tribulation, which is right where wormwood is on the timeline in revelations.

That would place the last possible date for the rapture on Sep 24, 2024. Not that it couldn't happen before then, mind you. That would just be the last Rosh Hashana before the beginning of the tribulation.

So one way or another, we'll know if there's anything to dispensationalism within five years. And depending on how this Apophis thing shakes out, we might know a lot sooner than that. Not only that, but we'll see things really start to align. We'll have to see America cease to be a superpower, and Europe will have to reform into a revived Roman empire.

I see you've studied this.  Tom Horn goes into an almost identical analysis, with maybe just minor variations in the date range IIRC.

I haven't, but if Apophis is coming in 2029, that would be the midpoint of the tribulation, assuming the tribulation begins 7 years prior to the end of the 2000 years since the crucifixion.

I'm a big fan of dispensationalism. In the year 1000, Enoch was raptured. That's when the antediluvian world was plunged into chaos. We know it today as the fall of Atlantis and the Trojan Wars. Very violent and almost apocalyptic time to have been alive.

In 2000, that was the flood.

In 3000, that was about the time that Israel entered the land.

In 4000, that was the crucifixion.

In 5000, that was the beginning of the high middle ages. Very pivotal time, because that's when paganism was finally stamped out. Up to that point, Europe was still gripped by the dark ages. Human sacrifice was still a common practice all over most of Europe. That medieval Catholic church wasn't exactly anything to write home about, but it did get rid of a lot of superstition and pave the way for the renaissance and the enlightenment, which brought about the industrial revolution and the modern age. Sadly, were it not for the catholic church stamping out paganism, we would probably still be sacrificing virgins and making voodoo dolls out of tree roots would probably be the extent of our sciences.

And of course we're coming up to the millennial kingdom. We know with a very high degree of certainty that Jesus was crucified in 32 AD. So if 32 AD was exactly 4000 years after creation, which isn't much of a stretch, then...well, you know.

I’ve never seen anyone claim those dates for the Trojan War or the fall of Atlantis. Do you have a source?

Book of Enoch and mythology in general.

The first half of the antediluvian world was the gifting of technology to man by renegade angels, as typified in Greek mythology by Prometheus. This brought about a global civilization with a global ruler. What we know about it from Solon is that it was a global empire of ten kingdoms ruled by a city state called Atlantis (named after its ruler Atlas).

This is more or less confirmed by the Bible, at least by implication. It says that the end times will be as it was in the days of Noah, and we know that the end times are typified by a global empire made up of ten kingdoms, ruled by a city state called mystery Babylon. The Bible also identified a pre flood global ruler that it calls the Assyrian, and it's not a far stretch to hypothesize that Atlas and Assyrian have a common root in some now lost antediluvian language.

We get the word Assyria and Assyrian today from Nimrod. When Nimrod went out and conquered lands beyond Babylon, his name changes from Nimrod to Assur (literally The Assyrian). In other words, people began to identify him with the antediluvian ruler now known as Atlas. In all likelihood, Nimrod was also descended from Atlas through his mother, so he probably claimed some sort of divine right.

It's also revealing that the Bible identifies the spirit of the Antichrist with Apollo, which was one of the titles attributed to Nimrod. It also says that the Antichrist will come out of Assyria, which has caused many to assume that means the Antichrist will be of Syrian nationality. But if you know the origin of the word Assyrian, it makes more sense that he'll come out of that lineage. If the Assyrian lineage is through Nimrod, then it makes more sense that he'll come out of Europe, as Nimrod's modern day descendants are those European monarchies.

So in that light, terms like Mystery Babylon make a lot more sense. We're seeing Biblical confirmation of an empire that goes back before the flood, that was briefly revived as Babylon under Nimrod, and will be fully revived under the Antichrist in the end times. This is also confirmed in Daniel and Revelations by the various beasts and Nebuchadnezzar's statue. It describes a fluid empire that begins in Babylon and morphs over time into various empires that all fail, but then finds ultimate success as a revived Roman empire. History bears that out. The journey of the monarchy and priesthood began in Babylon with Nimrod, then went to the Persians when Belshazzar angered God. Then Greece conquered Persia and the priesthood and monarchy's center of power moved to Pergamon. Which was then transferred to Rome when the Romans conquered Greece. And then subsequently bestowed on the European monarchies when the Pope named Charlemagne as the Holy Roman Emperor.

The second half of antediluvian history was a series of terrible wars in which the various kingdoms of Atlantis all went to war with each other. The Bible also makes references to the Assyrian's progeny being destroyed, confirming the basic story in Enoch and in various other mythologies. Even in far Eastern mythology, you still have this basic story of an ancient, technologically advanced empire that destroys itself through infighting.

So from a dispensational point of view, antediluvian history is clearly divided into two distinct periods. You have the rise of this global empire that brings about unprecedented peace and prosperity, there's high technology, people are living for hundreds of years. But then overnight it all comes crashing down when God judges the angels who sinned by interfering with mankind.

A lot of people also point out that the rapture of Enoch is a foreshadowing of a pre wrath rapture. Like the Bible says, the end times will be as in the days of Noah. So if you view the end times global empire as a revived Atlantis, we'll be taken out before God's judgement, just like Enoch was taken out before God judged the Watchers and destroyed their earthly empire.

ETA: There are no accepted dates for the fall of Atlantis or the Trojan wars, because they're both more or less disavowed by historians. Apologists will try to connect the mythological Trojan war to this or that Greek war, or try to connect Atlantis to the Minoans or Crete. But that obviously ignores the main features of those histories, like the use of technologically advanced weapons by demigods, or the fact that none of the proposed post flood civilizations bear any semblance to the mythological Atlantis.

But through Enoch, we know that the Watchers and their demigod sons (i.e. Atlas) were judged at some point during the second dispensation, after Enoch was raptured. The general feeling is that Enoch's departure marked the beginning of God's wrath on the Watchers, and we know that happened in about the year 1000.

ETAA: If you work out the math, Enoch was probably raptured in about 2981 BC. So very, very close to 1000 AC, assuming that the crucifixion took place in 4000 AC.

Interesting. I’ll have to find more info on it. Thanks!

Not quite right. With a sniper rifle, you have no control over the round once it leaves the barrel. Today's tech is more like a guided missile with on board radar and cameras to watch and fine tune the approach of the ordinance before it impacts the target. If we can get Voyager 1 and 2 to accurately pass even the very last planets in the solar system back in the late 70's and early 80's, what do you think we could do now, 40 years later??

I'm not saying we could for sure stop a city sized space rock from hitting us, but it's better odds than your example above would lead one to believe.

Also, you guys know that viewing Revelation as a literal doom and gloom chain of events (for instance the way the "Left Behind" book series depicts) is only about a 100 year old view, right? From the time the book was written and for the following centuries, the church has never had the view it was a literal chain of events. It was always meant as, and understood as something quite different. That's all I'm going to say on this, you can google around if you want the historical church's view on the writings. They aren't what you think though...

It will for sure hit Cali and New York first, LOL.

I'm saying trying to predict whether an asteroid would hit the earth is like trying to predict whether a 2 MOA rifle will hit a 1 MOA target 2 miles downrange.

There are too many variables to account for. You know it's going to be close, but you don't know how close. All you can come up with are probabilities.

That's the major problem. Even if we could somehow deflect an asteroid, we can't tell the difference between a hit and a dead miss from far enough out to do anything about it. By the time we know it's a hit, it's far, far too late.

And if we try deflecting an asteroid from that far away, we could just as easily turn a near miss into a hit. In order to successfully deflect asteroids, we would need something that could steer them WAY away from the earth. We just don't have anything powerful enough to make that kind of course change. There's nothing we're capable of launching into space and landing on an asteroid that could change its course enough to steer it far enough out of the way.

And there's nothing on the horizon, either. It would either take a bomb many orders of magnitude more powerful than what we currently have, or some form of propulsion that's way ahead of rockets.

Is it weird that his prediction lines up with when the leftists nuts say the world will end dude to climate change?  

Attached File

This is just incorrect. Humans have already constructed 100 megaton bombs. Given the mass established in my previous post for an iron based asteroid, were looking at a 222.26 million ton asteroid. We have the tech needed to put a 100 million tons of tnt equivalent next to it. So for every 2.26 tons of iron we have 1 ton of TNT equivalent.

You're telling me that won't cause a course deviation?

Let's put it this way. They have so little faith in that method that one of the alternatives they're exploring is using a massive spaceship as a gravity tractor to pull the asteroid off course.

Asteroid deflection is pure science fiction at this point.

Firstly I didn't visit any links, but from the OP; he supposedly called NASA, and they were just like "yeah dude we know all about it, but we're like totally covering it up so don't say anything, k thanks bye"

Why would NASA divulge a cover up to some kook that calls them?

I agree with the poster that said it's not the ones we can see that we should worry about.  I remember a thread on here in last year or two where someone linked the tracking site for objects in space.  There were all kinds of asteroids that were only discovered relatively shortly before they were in our AO.

To me that's more scary than the idea there is one out there getting close that we know about.

Wasn't the meteor that blew up over Russia a few years back only spotted shortly beforehand?

Ah, OK. My bad...I thought you meant taking a shot at the asteroid would be like taking a 2 mile shot with that sniper rifle. I see now. And I don't disagree, it is a bit of a crapshoot to know if it will hit us or not...

Obviously photoshopped -- there's no way he's popping his visor to drink that beer. LOL.

According to the movie Armageddon, that would just be like setting off a firecracker on your palm. You gotta wrap your hand around it for it to blow off your fingers, ya know.

Landing on the rock and setting up rockets to push it off course could work -- in theory -- but you're trying to change the direction of an awful lot of mass. Without a large enough source of thrust and the exact right spot relative to the center of mass, you could just end up causing it to rotate on it's axis very, very slowly instead of pushing it anywhere...

It's a shit problem to have to solve, that's for sure, LOL.

Rotation on axis is definately an issue.  But it's not like setting a firecracker off in your hand.  It's going to generate extremely high heat, turning exterior portions of the asteroid to plasma, gas, etc.  This material venting off one side of the asteroid is going to cause movement.  As long as detection distance is far enough, it only takes a minute deviation to avoid impacting the earth.  The earth itself is traveling at 29.8 km/s.  The earth is about 12,756 kilometers across, so as little as 7 minutes of deviation can turn a leading edge hit into a trailing edge miss. Almost all deviations err in favor of earth surviving.

The problem is the detection window.  If we would pre-build assets and keep them on standby, we could at least increase our survival chances.  As it stands, anything detected with less than two years to impact is going to be very difficult.  A 10 year window on the other hand, gives two years to ready assets, 3 years for interception and 5 years for the small course change to ensure our 12,756km ball doesn't get hit.

As a nation we should be spending money on increasing detection and keeping some assets on standby/ready for relatively short notice launch.

Supposedly the author is good friends with some higher-up NASA people who told him some things in confidence, and once they found out he was going to put their statements in his book and use their names the shit hit the fan and they basically said, "Whoa, feller, we will lose our jobs and worse if you publish what we told you."

Yea I'm fully aware we can land on an asteroid, at least under the right circumstances.

It's just that our current options to divert it would require knowing about it way, way in advance, and being able to predict its trajectory far more accurately than we currently are able. Considering the variables and vast distances, it would be a lot like predicting the future. And deflecting it would be akin to preventing a tornado in Oklahoma by turning on a box fan in Kansas.

What if it hits the moon.

In 2029 I might be 79 years old. Bring it.

This has strayed from any religious discussion.