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Posted: 8/8/2010 7:32:10 PM EDT
...or if you think you might want to add more to your existing gold stash... you've got to study FOFOA's blog.

He makes a very good case as to why gold will soon explode in price. I won't even post what he's predicting the price of gold will eventually "land" at, because you probably won't believe it.

But he's very articulate as to why gold is the ultimate investment.

There's a lot of reading, but IMO, it's worth your time. Even those that wouldn't consider buying gold might want to give this blog a look.

http://fofoa.blogspot.com/



Link Posted: 8/8/2010 7:39:04 PM EDT
Not doing gold, I'm doing junk coin silver. Theory is that silver is more easily passed, cheaper, for now at least. Also could be used as a alternate currency in SHTF situation. Or at least the theory goes. I am also laying stocks of consumables.
Link Posted: 8/8/2010 7:45:51 PM EDT
I agree, silver will be better if the SHTF.

Link Posted: 8/8/2010 7:51:13 PM EDT
[Last Edit: 8/8/2010 7:52:41 PM EDT by ColonelHurtz]
Originally Posted By FooDog:
I agree, silver will be better if the SHTF.



It's also has more practical uses.
Silver acetylide being one of them.

But I could handle a ten or fifteen bagger on my gold.
Really, I could.
Link Posted: 8/8/2010 7:53:56 PM EDT
Originally Posted By FooDog:
I agree, silver will be better if the SHTF.



I have also started to lay in small supply of those shot bottles of booze for trade goods too.
Link Posted: 8/11/2010 9:13:15 PM EDT
Why waste money on small change?
750ml is the better bargain.
Most liquor stores give 15% off on case lots.
Link Posted: 8/12/2010 5:58:24 AM EDT
Originally Posted By Fullpower:
Why waste money on small change?
750ml is the better bargain.
Most liquor stores give 15% off on case lots.


Doing those too,but buying the smaller bottles by the case for trade goods. It keeps, can be used for small trades and already packaged.
Link Posted: 8/12/2010 8:55:57 AM EDT
I'm curious if anyone has studied FOFOA's brilliant blog.

BTW, here's a good article as to why gold, in the authors opinion, will never be confiscated.

Gold is safe
Link Posted: 8/13/2010 11:04:18 AM EDT
Historically gold has been a terrible investment. Think of it this way. In 1890 x amount of gold could have bought up property along 5th avenue in nyc. What would be worth more today?
Link Posted: 8/13/2010 1:10:14 PM EDT
Originally Posted By Uberjager:
Historically gold has been a terrible investment. Think of it this way. In 1890 x amount of gold could have bought up property along 5th avenue in nyc. What would be worth more today?


Gold is owned to preserve wealth not to create it.
Link Posted: 8/13/2010 1:23:51 PM EDT
Currently deflation, not inflation seems to be the major concern with the Fed. I think I would stay away from gold right now.
Link Posted: 8/13/2010 1:59:08 PM EDT
Originally Posted By SS109:
Currently deflation, not inflation seems to be the major concern with the Fed. I think I would stay away from gold right now.


Gold will rise during deflationary periods as well.

Semi-related, please read this. http://fofoa.blogspot.com/2010/07/red-alert-gold-backwardation.html

Link Posted: 8/13/2010 2:03:23 PM EDT
Originally Posted By Uberjager:
Historically gold has been a terrible investment. Think of it this way. In 1890 x amount of gold could have bought up property along 5th avenue in nyc. What would be worth more today?


And if the taxes on said land were figured into the actual worth, [land only, no buildings] what would be the real profit on it VS Gold over the years?
Link Posted: 8/14/2010 8:18:35 PM EDT
Originally Posted By fxntime:
Originally Posted By Uberjager:
Historically gold has been a terrible investment. Think of it this way. In 1890 x amount of gold could have bought up property along 5th avenue in nyc. What would be worth more today?


And if the taxes on said land were figured into the actual worth, [land only, no buildings] what would be the real profit on it VS Gold over the years?


Probably at least quintuple.
Link Posted: 8/14/2010 8:23:50 PM EDT
By the time you see the ads on tv to buy gold, you are too late to the game.
Link Posted: 8/14/2010 9:59:09 PM EDT
Originally Posted By 1999cutiger:
By the time you see the ads on tv to buy gold, you are too late to the game.


Wha..

It's true that when everyone you know has invested in [insert investment vehicle here], it's too late ––––- but just seeing ads to buy gold is too late also???!!

You should realize that there's a very, very tiny percentile of Americans that have actually held a gold coin/bar, much less own some.

I'm not picking on you or anyone ––- but the blog that I've referenced will truly open ones mind and eyes.
Link Posted: 8/14/2010 11:37:06 PM EDT
After I read his response to a 'concerned' reader, about a possible gold backed currency replacing the dollar, I quit reading it.
Link Posted: 8/16/2010 3:12:31 PM EDT
Originally Posted By FooDog:
...........why gold will soon explode in price........



Gold Market Manipulation Coming Unravelled

.....I have spelled out in recent articles that there is a run on the bullion banks that has commenced and is gaining momentum. Investors and institutions are waking up to the fact that “unallocated gold” is not gold at all but just an unsecured promise for gold. They are now starting to demand delivery and as there is only one ounce backing each 45 ounces that are claimed the situation is turning into what will be a short squeeze of epic proportions..........

So investors have bought a record amount of “physical gold” which is actually paper gold which they have never seen and only about 2.3% of what has been sold actually exists. The bullion banks are “awash” with liabilities for the record amount of gold they are supposed to be holding. Investors are now distrusting the bullion banks and are asking for delivery so is it too surprising that the record amount of “physical gold” sales has led to a record gold swap being transacted to give the bullion banks liquidity?

The IMF has been surreptitiously selling gold at a clip of around 15 tonnes per month every month since February without any official announcements and without disclosing the recipients. This is another sign that the bullion banks are in serious trouble.

When 45 ounces of gold are sold but only one real ounce is sourced the result is a massive suppression of the gold price. But the converse is also true; when 45 ounces of gold are demanded for only one that is in the vault the price explosion is beyond imagination.
Link Posted: 8/16/2010 3:17:06 PM EDT
[Last Edit: 8/16/2010 3:17:45 PM EDT by troy808]
and more good news....

China Favors Euro Over Dollar


speeling
Link Posted: 8/16/2010 4:25:34 PM EDT
I want to see Pd back up over $500 too.
Link Posted: 8/16/2010 5:25:12 PM EDT
Originally Posted By troy808:
Originally Posted By FooDog:
...........why gold will soon explode in price........



Gold Market Manipulation Coming Unravelled

.....I have spelled out in recent articles that there is a run on the bullion banks that has commenced and is gaining momentum. Investors and institutions are waking up to the fact that “unallocated gold” is not gold at all but just an unsecured promise for gold. They are now starting to demand delivery and as there is only one ounce backing each 45 ounces that are claimed the situation is turning into what will be a short squeeze of epic proportions..........

So investors have bought a record amount of “physical gold” which is actually paper gold which they have never seen and only about 2.3% of what has been sold actually exists. The bullion banks are “awash” with liabilities for the record amount of gold they are supposed to be holding. Investors are now distrusting the bullion banks and are asking for delivery so is it too surprising that the record amount of “physical gold” sales has led to a record gold swap being transacted to give the bullion banks liquidity?

The IMF has been surreptitiously selling gold at a clip of around 15 tonnes per month every month since February without any official announcements and without disclosing the recipients. This is another sign that the bullion banks are in serious trouble.

When 45 ounces of gold are sold but only one real ounce is sourced the result is a massive suppression of the gold price. But the converse is also true; when 45 ounces of gold are demanded for only one that is in the vault the price explosion is beyond imagination.


Scary shit, definitely.
Link Posted: 8/17/2010 11:37:11 AM EDT
Scary shit indeed.

IMO, this is interview is an " absolute must read".

The Best Gold Interview of 2010
Jeff Clark, Casey's Gold & Resource Report

Much of what passes for “insider” information these days is often conspiracy-edged or largely conjecture. True inside information is actually hard to come by. So what follows is the refreshingly candid and uncut version of my talk with a first-hand participant in the murky and little-understood world of gold bullion, mints, and bullion dealers.

Customarily, when considering a company for a potential recommendation, I hold a series of discussions with management. It was during one of these vetting procedures that I spoke with Andy Schectman of Miles Franklin – and heard some disturbing reports about supply that every investor should know. Andy is a bullion seller, so you’re welcome to take his comments with a grain of salt. On the other hand, what he sees week after week and what he hears from his high-level industry contacts might just make you pull back on that salt shaker and re-inventory the number of ounces you own...

Jeff Clark: Andy, tell us about the kinds of contacts you have in the industry and where you get your information.

Andy: I’m associated with two of the six primary mint distributors in the United States. There are only six primary precious metal distributors here because the qualifications are very difficult to meet. Aside from having $100 million in annual sales, you have to extend a $50 million line of credit to the U.S. Mint, and very few companies can do that. So in working with these companies, I’m privy to information that many others aren’t.

Jeff: So, what have you been hearing from them about supply for physical gold and silver?

Andy: I think in order to properly characterize what’s happening in the industry, it's important to start from a big-picture perspective, which is that by and large the masses in this country are not involved in precious metals. In my experience, the move we've seen in gold over the last decade has primarily been from international investment – sovereign wealth funds in the Orient, petrodollars in the Middle East, India buying from the IMF, Russia and Japan accumulating, etc.

Most U.S. investors have lived through nothing but prosperity and good times, where they perhaps didn’t think they needed to own gold – but I think the rest of the world isn't as optimistic about the future. So when you talk about supply, it's important to acknowledge that most people in this country don't own any gold and silver. To me, that's what should really alarm people.

Jeff: Tell us how you would characterize supply right now.

Andy: Fragile. Availability of product changes almost weekly.

But it’s worse than that. When the market plunged 1,000 points in one day last month, two German banks bought about 35,000 or 40,000 one-ounce coins and cleaned out the Royal Canadian Mint overnight. Think about that: two banks cleaned out one of the world’s preeminent mints in one day.

Then you have the Austrian Mint recently announcing they were running into supply issues. And the U.S. Mint has been the model of inefficiency for the last several years. They have been either reluctant or unable to meet demand when it comes to Gold Buffalos, Platinum Eagles, and fractional Gold Eagles. They issue dribs and drabs of them, but certainly not enough to meet demand.

Jeff: And they frequently run out.

Andy: They frequently run out, they frequently have delivery delays, and it's a situation where very quickly we could see major disruption in the supply chain.

Jeff: We saw supply constraint in 2008, where dealers were running out of product. Do you think we’re headed there again?

Andy: I do. In 2008, when gold dropped from $1,000 to $700 very quickly, all product worldwide disappeared. Within weeks the U.S. Mint was shut down. The Canadian, Austrian, and Australian Mints were all eight to 12 weeks back-ordered or shut down. The Australian Mint stopped taking any new orders in July or August for the rest of the year. The Rand Mint, for the first time ever, sold out of all its product. One wealthy Swiss businessman flew his own 747 there and cleaned them out.

So product was impossible to get, but not just from the primary mints; even the refiners that made 100-ounce silver bars couldn't get them. No one could get anything, and it was a very scary time if you owned a gold company. There were many days I sat at my desk wondering how I was going to get product tomorrow, and there were times we couldn't take orders whatsoever. And that comes from a company that’s done over $100 million in sales, is a member of the certified exchange, and that has contacts that run very deep in the industry – and I couldn’t get anything.

A friend of mine who owns a very prominent gold and silver company in Colorado has a store front, and back then he told me, "I want to put a sign on my window that says, ‘All we do is buy, we don’t sell,’ because one person will come in there and clean me out and there’s nothing to be had.”

So what I think is ahead comes from that experience. If you factor in that very, very few people in this country have even held a gold coin – let alone own any gold, or understand the reasons to own it, or will even accept the arguments for owning it – I think the primary distinguishing characteristic of this market will be that people won’t be able to get product when they want it. The rising price in and of itself will not be the main hurdle. For the most part, people will overcome price, because they’ll want to own it. The real issue will be getting product in a timely fashion, and that will become difficult for the average American.

Jeff: What about supply from those selling coins and bars who bought at lower levels? Doesn’t that increase the available supply?

Andy: This is what I believe is a distinguishing feature of this market: there is a total absence of a secondary market. There isn’t one. Period. In years past, we used to do a lot of business with people wanting to sell. Today, virtually no one is selling their coins back to us. In fact, for every 100 transactions we have, maybe one is a seller – the other 99 are buyers. Our largest supplier, who provides over 60% of all bullion to the U.S. market, told me earlier this month they have days without one single buy back. And this is from the largest supplier in the U.S.

Jeff: Why do you think no one’s selling?
Andy: People are afraid. They’re afraid of what's happening geopolitically, economically, fiscally, and want to hold on to their gold. As they should, because this is exactly the kind of circumstance gold is for.

So I would argue that as gold and silver creep higher, there will be more and more buying and less and less selling. And less selling means less product for buyers.

When you look at the fact that there is no secondary market, and then you throw into the mix that the mints are already running into production problems, and then add the troubles in Europe, which could easily spread, I think it’s easy to see how demand could outstrip supply. I assure you, there's an awful lot of gold acquisition going on in other countries – the Swiss and Germans, for example, see the handwriting on the wall. They were buying everything up when the European crisis broke. It was bedlam for awhile.

And if all of a sudden people here wake up and feel they really need to own gold but can’t get it, we’ll be right back where we were in 2008.

But to your point, yes, nobody is selling anything right now and almost anything you buy will be dated 2010. That’s because there are no backdatedcoins to be had virtually anywhere. Maybe 20 here or 50 there, but nothing on a meaningful basis.

Jeff: It sounds like regardless of what’s going on in America, global supply could be in jeopardy if this trend continues.

Andy: Absolutely, especially with the fact that there is no secondary market. Really, the people who enter the game late are going to be at the mercy of the mints. And if the mints run out of supply, or just stopped selling for whatever reason, it's “game over” for those who want to accumulate. Right now there's as good a supply as I've seen in a couple years, and that's at a time when we've already witnessed the Royal Canadian Mint running out of gold for a week or so, the Austrian Mint also running out of product, and the U.S. Mint rationing Silver Eagles for a short time.

Jeff: And you’re calling this a good supply market?

Andy: Yes. It’s as good as we've seen in a couple years.

Jeff: That's scary.

Andy: I don’t think you’re exaggerating by saying that. And the message is, “Buy now while it's still available.” I know it may sound like I'm trying to sensationalize it, but I'm really not. Based on what I know, it’s my opinion that if 5% of this country put 5% of their money into gold, there would be nothing left tomorrow morning. Supply is that small compared to the tremendous amount of money that's out there.

Here’s another example. I had a meeting with a money management company here in Minneapolis that manages some of the oldest money in the entire country, literally billions of dollars. And when I spoke with them, I discovered the principals of the firm had never held a gold coin. They asked me questions that were as rudimentary as what I would get from a complete novice. By the end of the conversation, they said they would start with a $5 million order. I later learned this was a small order for just one of their clients. It was just dipping a toe in the water for these people.

Well, it won’t take too many of these kinds of people waking up to gold to drain the supply chain. Most of the wealth in this country is driven through money managers, and at some point these people will tell their managers, "I don’t care what the price or premium is, get me gold." When they come knocking in large numbers like that, the supply chain will dry up overnight. I know this to be true. If we see an event that drives money managers to buy physical gold, the supply will be gone.
Jeff: Some of that money is already going into the ETFs.

Andy: Yes, but not when you consider the total capital that’s available. And keep in mind that the prospectus for GLD and SLV state that, more or less, you can’t take possession of the metal. So, do you “own” gold if you have shares in GLD or SLV, or any ETF, for that matter? If you can’t put the coin or bar in the palm of your hand, the answer is no.

Jeff: Are you seeing any difference between gold and silver? Is one more difficult to come by than the other?

Andy: We've seen a lot of demand for silver, probably more so than gold, and the U.S. Mint has already rationed Silver Eagles once this year. Junk silver bags are becoming much harder to get. And I think the higher gold goes, the faster silver will disappear. At some point the American public will realize they should have some gold and silver, and we could see a situation where the gold price could get out of reach for some investors. Those people will turn to silver and, as a result, it will probably be tougher to get than gold.

Jeff: If supply gets scarce, do you expect premiums to shoot up?

Andy: Absolutely. In 2008 the premiums were astronomical. Silver Eagles were $5.50 to $6 over spot. Gold Eagles were $100 to $150 over spot. The premiums went parabolic. That could easily happen again.

Jeff: And that was due to constrained supply.

Andy: Yes. When the price fell off the table, everything disappeared quickly. That’s counterintuitive, I know, because logic would dictate that as the price of something falls, demand is waning. But as the price fell, I think it became more attractive to large interests around the world, and everything got gobbled up fast.

Looking ahead, I can tell you that the only way you'll see premiums stay where they are is if the mints are able to keep up with demand, and based on what I see I would argue there is no way they can. They can’t even keep up now. On top of that, as I stated, people aren’t going to sell their gold this time unless they absolutely have to, so there won’t be any supply coming from sales.

Jeff: So your message to someone who owns little or no physical metal now is what?

Andy: Acquire as many gold and silver ounces as you can. In the end it’s not about price paid, it's about number of ounces. View the supply issue as critically as you would the price, because I believe that more than anything else, the lack of available supply will mark this industry.

Jeff: Excellent advice, Andy. Thanks for your input.
Link Posted: 8/19/2010 8:12:58 AM EDT
Who are the biggest holders of bullion gold? Could one of the experts here please list the top twenty holders of gold? Please be specific.
Link Posted: 8/19/2010 9:53:03 AM EDT
Originally Posted By MyakkaVice:
Who are the biggest holders of bullion gold? Could one of the experts here please list the top twenty holders of gold? Please be specific.


Central Banks, worldwide.
Link Posted: 8/19/2010 10:33:16 AM EDT
Originally Posted By MyakkaVice:
Who are the biggest holders of bullion gold? Could one of the experts here please list the top twenty holders of gold? Please be specific.


Top holders of gold
Link Posted: 8/19/2010 1:01:57 PM EDT
Gold & Silver - A Pair Of Aces For A Winning Hand!


John Embry at Investor's Digest of Canada recently wrote an article entitled: "Gold's on the cusp of a parabolic move up" .... in which he made the following key points:

* The IMF is now being forced to dump what gold it still has available into the market to restrain the rising price.
* Western central banks have nowhere near the amount of gold in their vaults that they claim.
* Due to physical shortages the western central banks can no longer supply the amount needed to balance supply and demand.
* Mine production continues to stagnate at best.
Link Posted: 8/19/2010 2:26:42 PM EDT
Does any of this relate to Silver in any way? Or, will gold pull the price of Silver up, or down with it? fullclip
Link Posted: 8/20/2010 6:59:42 AM EDT
Originally Posted By fullclip:
Does any of this relate to Silver in any way? Or, will gold pull the price of Silver up, or down with it? fullclip


It's hard to say.

I have a lot of silver, but the more I study FOFOA's blog, the more it seems gold will be the true winner.

Link Posted: 8/25/2010 1:41:06 PM EDT
Is this an infomercial?

Link Posted: 8/26/2010 10:52:33 AM EDT
Originally Posted By DontShootMyDog:
Is this an infomercial?



huh?
I don't understand. pls elaborate
Link Posted: 8/27/2010 7:49:38 AM EDT
You'll Buy Gold Now and Like It!

By Jeff Clark, Casey's Gold & Resource Report

I get this question a lot: "Should I buy gold now, or wait for a pullback?"

It’s a valid question. For nearly two years, gold hasn't had a serious decline. There have been pullbacks, of course, but nothing assumption-challenging. In fact, since October 2008, gold’s largest price drop is 10.6% (based on London PM fix prices), and yet the average of all declines since 2001 is 13% (of those greater than 5%). The biggest pullback we've seen this summer is 8.2%. Technically the summer's not over, but I'll admit I'm surprised we haven't had a better buying opportunity.

So, is now the time to buy? It depends on your honest answer to another question: “Do you own enough gold?” By “enough” I mean an amount that lends meaningful protection on your assets. By ”meaningful” I mean that no matter what happens next – another financial blow-up, accelerating inflation, crushing deflation, war, a plummeting dollar, more reckless government spending – you won't worry about your investments.

Whether you should buy now is almost irrelevant if you don't already own a meaningful amount of gold. If you earn $50,000 a year, how is one gold Eagle coin going to protect you if the dollar plummets and sends inflation soaring? If your investable assets total $100,000, is your nest egg sufficiently protected owning two gold Maple Leafs? This is all akin to buying a $50,000 insurance policy for a $500,000 home.

Today we face the prospect of prolonged economic stagnation, and most governments are administering grossly abusive monetary policy as a remedy. While some of the consequences are already being felt, the full ramifications have not hit your wallet yet. But they will.

If you don't have at least 10% of your investable assets in physical gold, or at least two months of living expenses, you have your answer: Buy. Don't use leverage, don't borrow money, and don't buy with reckless abandon, but yes, get your asset insurance policy and tuck it away. And then start working toward 20% (we recommend a third of assets be in various forms of gold in Casey's Gold & Resource Report).

Back to the original question: should we buy now, or wait for a pullback?

The answer comes when you look at the big picture. If you pull up a 9-year chart of gold, what sticks out is that the price is near its all-time nominal high. One could be forgiven for thinking it looks toppy or at least ripe for a pullback. But I assert that the highs for gold have yet to be charted.

What will a gold chart look like after adding five years to it?

When projecting gold's potential price peak, there are many ways to measure it. Conservatively, gold reaching its inflation-adjusted 1980 high would have it topping around $2,400 an ounce. More radically, if the U.S. tried to cover its cumulative foreign trade deficit with its current gold holdings, gold would need to hit about $32,000/oz.

Let's take something more middle of the road, and apply the same trough-to-peak percentage advance gold underwent in the 1970s. (I think there's a greater than 50/50 chance it does more than that, given the precarious nature of the U.S. dollar.) Gold rose from $35 in 1970 to $850 in 1980, a factor of 24.28. Our price bottomed in 2001 at $255.95; multiply that by 24.28 and you get a gold price of $6,214 per ounce.

Sound too high? Well, would it feel high if you had to pay $12.50 for a Big Mac? At $3.39 today at my local McDonald's, that's about what it would cost ten years from now if we get the same rate of inflation we had in the late 1970s.

So if gold hits $6,214, what might it look like on a chart if you bought today around $1,200?

$1,200 doesn't seem so pricey, does it?

I'm not saying there won't be pullbacks or that you shouldn't try to buy at lower prices. Just keep a big-picture perspective. Let's say gold falls to $1,100 and you're kicking yourself for having bought at $1,200… if gold reaches $6,200 an ounce, the profit difference between buying at $1,200 and buying at $1,100 is only 1.6%. If gold gets whacked to $1,000 (at which point I’ll be buying with both hands) the difference is still only 3.2%.

Heck, even if gold peaks at $2,400, you still get a double from current levels. (But unless government monetary policies immediately reverse course, gold isn't stopping at $2,400.)

So there's my answer. Yes, you have to accept my projection of gold's ultimate price plateau. And you have to sell at some point to realize the profit. But if the final chapter of this bull market looks anything like the chart above, I don't think you'll be too upset having bought at $1,200.

Carpe gold.

http://www.caseyresearch.com/editorial/3614?ppref=CRX192ED0810D
Link Posted: 9/6/2010 7:43:57 PM EDT
I'm afraid the best prices we were to see on gold and silver have past us now, but its still worth purchasing if for no other reason than treasury notes are certain to go down in value.
Link Posted: 9/6/2010 9:39:26 PM EDT
[Last Edit: 9/6/2010 9:43:30 PM EDT by troy808]
Originally Posted By 1903pa:
I'm afraid the best prices we were to see on gold and silver have past us now, but its still worth purchasing if for no other reason than treasury notes are certain to go down in value.

yes




Before day-trading, if the market fell, metals would perform the opposite, and vice-versa.
Other than the few severe market crashes since the 80's, metals have held their own.

For the past few years, the metals market has followed the stock market.
Market up, metals up, stocks down, metals down. Predictable.

Very recently, Metals have been breaking away from the “normal” trading patterns and are finding their own direction again.........

something's up



(speeling)

Link Posted: 9/7/2010 6:03:47 PM EDT
Yes I think it's undeniable now that the price of gold has become unhinged from the USD or the US stock market and will now follow the foreign markets and foreign or overall demand for the metals, which by all I've learned is going to increase a lot in the very near, to the foreseeable future. JMOFWIW
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