Personally, I think it is an economic problem that is the worst type of event to face.

Picture this:  cost prohibitive gas prices, rising taxes, 15% unemployment, rapid inflation of consumable goods, rapid deflation of property values, and riots.

In most natural disasters and wars, indigous people tend to band together and set aside differences to help each other survive.  However, in economic bad times, people tend to kill and steal from each other in order to acquire and survive.  Sharing is common to natural disasters, but rare in economic bad times.

Other than nuke war or other total wars, I think this would be the worst scenario.

Economic
Natural disaster
Terrorist attact that causes mass panic and economic disaster.  Look what happened to the Dow after 9-11.

The fall of Babylon and all the horrors that will come with it.



Honestly who really knows, but I'm not going to take anything for granted.

I do think we're only a step away from another World War with the right event to set it off and the depression on us now is what our enemies have been hoping and working for to get us in a weaker spot to handle it.

Obama loses the run for president.

Our dark skinned brothers blame racism, tear apart and burn every white owned piece of property within 100 miles of an urban center.

Quoted: Obama loses the run for president. Our dark skinned brothers blame racism, tear apart and burn every white owned piece of property within 100 miles of an urban center.

Not likely.  

Does it go without saying that the worst SHTF would be nuclear terrorism?  How likely is it?  I don't know.  Let's hope "not likely at all."  But I am somewhat less than comforted by the combination of loose nukes, suicide commandos, and the joke that passes for border security in this country.

As regards economic meltdown and the effect it has on crime, you are right.  It is by no accident that some of the most violent and bloody crime sprees (Dillinger Gang, Bonnie & Clyde, etc) in this country's history took place during the Great Depression.  Poverty tends to bring out the meanest side of human nature.

how about Obama winning then this country  goes in the crapper

You're thinking on a grander scale, but I'm going to say getting laid off and the only job you can find with the lowest strife/reward ratio gets you a 60% paycut.  Granted, its the same pay I was getting 6mo ago, but I got spoiled, dammit.

The worst SHTF?

Hmm.

Assuming that the universe remains fairly constant throughout our lives, you could see a large local gamma ray burst from, say, a supernova, that would extinguish all life on earth instantaneously.

The sun could go supernova, or trigger a giant flare that has the same basic effect as far as we're concerned.

A large celestial body could impact a planet in the solar system, resulting in a debris field that destroys life on earth.

That same body could impact the earth itself.

Hmm.

Of those outlandish possibilities, within our lifetimes, we've seen shoemaker levy perform the celestial impact on a planet in our system, so I guess we're 1 for 5 or so.

Buck up; maybe you'll just get fired.

An asteroid or cometary impact that stops short of being a planet killer, could cause a "nuclear winter" scenario where most of the worlds crops fail. Starvation and violence will occur on a global scale.

Volcanism: Mega eruptions can and have brought humanity to the brink of extinction, crops fail. Starvation and violence will occur on a global scale.

Plague: Could kill vast numbers of people globally, cause societal breakdown, anarchy, only those who are self-sufficient and can completely isolate themselves are likely to survive.

Nuclear holocaust: Either in the conventional sense or in the form of fifty or so nukes being smuggled into our citys and detonated, the wet dream of every terrorist made possible by President Obama's open border policies.

Long term: The continued decline of our civilization leading either to an oppressive police state or to anarchy where survival of the fittest rules.

At this moment in this country, I would say the problem will be economic.  The situations that are causing the economic problems aren't likely to be fixed anytime soon, as our "leaders" aren't really talking about them.  Subsequently, most of the people aren't talking about them either, because they don't really know there is a problem.

I'm also particularly concerned about an overreaction from the heads of the Federal Government if an event happens - natural, or otherwise - that would further decline what civil rights we have.  Combine this with an economic problem and bad things could happen.

Oh yeah, plus we just keep pissing people off...

Quoted: Economic Natural disaster Terrorist attact that causes mass panic and economic disaster.  Look what happened to the Dow after 9-11.

+1
+2
+3
in that order

bad election- riots
bad weather- canes/quakes/nado's
bad economics- market flops 20$ bread,gas is up ,unemployment rates skyrocket
breakdown of nomral life- due to above...to much job lose, not enough money folks freak.
zombies- hey you never know
Cane hits, starts a NOLA style evnt on the east coast. NG/active are sent in, due to "attacks and violence on fema" folks freak when NG/active  engage "civies". The populace crys for blood,meanwhile the issue at ground zero isnt resovlved more riots happen at ground zero, more attacks, larger cities riot the "injustice". >gov freaks out as its getting wide spread, gas hits 8$ a gallon. Middle america freaks.  Martiallaw declared in certain areas. Meanwhile, folks are tense and violence and "retalition" style attacks are happening. .GOv goes on teh strong arm and cracks down on these " home grown terrorist"  and it goes from there...

YMMV

Quoted: Obama loses the run for president. Our dark skinned brothers blame racism, tear apart and burn every white owned piece of property within 100 miles of an urban center in states with no CCW or gun bans.

Fixed that for you.

I think its inevitable that some nut ball will bring a nuke over the southern border and light it off in dc......The country will shut down......mass panic......if they bring more than one say LA, Chicago, NY, DC.,.....I casn see us quickly going mad max ville....

Quoted: Quoted: Obama loses the run for president. Our dark skinned brothers blame racism, tear apart and burn every white owned piece of property within 100 miles of an urban center in states with no CCW or gun bans. Fixed that for you.

Ding Ding Ding !!! we have a wiener

Economic worrys me the most because of recovery time and area effected . Unlike most disasters it will be a nation wide problem and will take years to recover from , very difficult to prep for that except to be totally self sufficient .

Volcanic eruption / Nuke Dust (sun blockage) + Famine + Plague = Global SHTF

really?

I think the worst SHTF you will realisticly face in your lifetime is getting injured and being out of work and on permanent disability.

most everything else is wet dream survivalist fantasy.

sure, natural disasters happen from time to time, and the very rare riot in large urban centers.

but realisticly, losing your source of income is what most americans face day to day.

http://uglydemocrats.com/democrats/United-States/Barack-Obama/clinton_obama.jpg

The most likely SHTF hat I believe we will see is when Iran, Syria and Iran's proxies in Hezbollah decide to take on Israel.  The world is not doing anything to stop Iran from gaining nukes and it is only a matter of time until one of the nut jobs in the ME decides to use them against Israel.  World wide oil will spike as never imagined before.  Famine would take place world wide without the fuel to fertilize, harvest crops and deliver food around the the globe.  Who knows what the involvement of the US would be but it will happen sooner or later.

Financially we are headed into a very bad area, with the national debt out of control.   As it is there is no hint of cutting back on govt. spending AND with social security going bankrupt in less than 10 years I expect huge tax increases which will suck the life from our economy as well as huge cuts in military spending impacting our ability to project military power.

The economic trap we driving into along with a weak President (Obama) will encourage Iran which will correctly calculate that the US would do nothing to aid Israel.  It will encourage them to take action as soon as he is in office.  I fully believe this will happen in my lifetime.

Quoted: The most likely SHTF hat I believe we will see is when Iran, Syria and Iran's proxies in Hezbollah decide to take on Israel.  The world is not doing anything to stop Iran from gaining nukes and it is only a matter of time until one of the nut jobs in the ME decides to use them against Israel.  World wide oil will spike as never imagined before.  Famine would take place world wide without the fuel to fertilize, harvest crops and deliver food around the the globe.  Who knows what the involvement of the US would be but it will happen sooner or later. We are setting up for a weak President (Obama) which Iran will correctly calculate would do nothing to aid Israel.  It will encourage them to take action as soon as he is in office.  I fully believe this will happen in my lifetime.

The situation with Iran is one I felt for a while now we're not going to be avoiding but more than that the Bush administration would like to do something about before they leave the White House.
With China interlinked to Irans oil supply being Iran is their biggest oil supplier and how the whole thing would effect more than just them I can't see how their not wanting to protect it with their growing need and economy.

They've building their military for a reason and we're the main ones they play war games against. Russia has stepped back up to Cold War patrols and is pissed off more with us looking to put missiles in their back yard. I don't doubt the two would join forces to finally be rid of us and gain controlling prominence in the world.

Lets face it, we've been the big boy on the block for a long time now with our politicians and fat boy elites pushing their way around the globe and stepping on lots of peoples toes. There are more wanting us to go down everyday and working towards it to not be very possible situations to come.

Couple things IMO are things that could happen....

Food shotages due to rise in gas prices---- Truckers going on strike will easily cause this to happen....Even just the talk of a mass trucker strike would cause people to freak out and buy up everything they can....

Water contamination...I worry about this as almost all cities water supplies are open to contamination by "the bad guys"....Lack of security leaves water open....

"That would be likely to happen"

I would say that it would be something that would cause the economy to tank to the point that Social Security and the WIC programs would lack the funds to issue the "entitlement checks" and the WIC cards stopped being loaded for all of the free food.

Many things could push our economy to this point, be it another war (Iran), terrorist events within CONUS (nukes), Oboma/Clinton winning the White House, ect.

Every major riots type is situation in the last several years required the local Law Enforcement agencies to rely on out side resources via mutual aid.  Be it man power, supplies, or both.  The case I'm sure most are aware of is the Gulf Coast after Katrina/Rita.

What if that aid was not available because the event was nation wide?  If the welfare checks and food stamp cards stopped coming...

I have been using this line of thought to feel out come co-workers within my Department.  We are an urban department of 1,200 officers. Almost all of our officers have spent some time working in one project or another.  Even those who have no clue about preparedness or survivalists all come up with the same conclusion.  We'd be screwed.

I then mention something like "it'd be a REALLY bad time to have to run to Krogers or Wal Mart to get groceries, while the store is being looted and burned down!"  Which leads into a discussion on how it's not really that difficult to stock up on a few weeks worth of food.  

So far, I have had a few officers tell me that it might not be a bad idea to buy an AR and some ammo. (Hmm, I never thought of that!)  Two that I know of just did.

The economy and the fall out if it tanks, AKA 1929 crash, is what currently worries me the most.

I am on a mission to convert as many people towards preparedness, all without knowing I am doing so.  I don't want  anyone to know about my preps.  By the time I'm usually done with the conversation, they are trying to convince me  into getting a SAM's Club card and going to the next gun show.

The more people around me that have some level of preps, the less people around me that might be a threat if their  family is hungry and they know I have food.  The trick is to get people to realize the potential threat without them thinking you're paranoid, or without them knowing you have any preps.  (Don't want to encourage the "If the SHTF, I'll just come to your house" mentality!)

Sorry if I got off topic, this has been on my mind alot lately.

Quoted: "That would be likely to happen" I would say that it would be something that would cause the economy to tank to the point that Social Security and the WIC programs would lack the funds to issue the "entitlement checks" and the WIC cards stopped being loaded for all of the free food.

Read this( 3 years old) - the Whitehouse says SS WILL be bankrupt in 2042 but will begin overdrawing and using the "trust fund" in 2018.  The problem is there is not "trust fund".  The money has been spent and the fund is nothing but our govt. borrowing from the "trust fund".  Making up for the deficit will have to come from the general fund.  
www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2005/02/20050204-12.html

Keep in mind the above press release is 3 years old and newer projections show it will be out of money in 7-10 years.  An Economic SHTF IS going to happen in this country(see below).

articles.moneycentral.msn.com/News/FedsBudgetTricksHideTrillionsInDebt.aspx

In 2005, for instance, the Social Security Disability Income program started to run at a cash loss. 2007 is the first year that Medicare Part A (the hospital insurance program) benefits exceeded income. The same thing will happen to the Social Security retirement-income program in six to nine years, depending on which of the trustees' estimates you use. During the same period, the expenses of Medicare Part B and Part D, which are paid out of general tax revenue, will rise rapidly. Despite this, the Social Security Administration writes workers every year advising them that the program will have a problem 34 years from now, not six or nine years. In fact, the real problem is already here. It will be a big-time problem in less than a decade.

on a global shtf scale, i'm going to go w/ the super caldera at yellow stone erupting.  probably the middle third of the country would be buried under a yard of ash.  and up to 1000km^3 of ash total pumped out - 6000 times more than st. helens.  we'd probably see and end of that growing season and likely a limited growing season for a few years after.  perhaps global cooling, longer winters, etc.  middle 3rd of the US impassible on ground for at least a while.   link

To me, the most likely is a well timed bio or nuke terror attack on several major cities in the US.

There is NO doubt in my mind they want to do it, are planning to do it, have the means and the stones to do it, and are waiting on the right time to do it. My biggest surprise is it has not happened yet.

The border security in our country is a joke, most of our attention is thousands of miles away in the desert, our politicians can't get together long enough to get anything of any import accomplished, and our enemy is smart, motivated, VERY patient, and most importantly, ready, no, willing to die for thier cause.

Simultaneous attacks on several hand picked cities would bring our country to it's knees economically. We are already stretched very thin, this kind of attack would be the straw that breaks the camel's back.

We would fight back, and I don't think we would go under, but it would be brutally ugly for quite awhile. Whle the attack on the WTC was brutal, in the grand scheme of things, it was not an overly strategic attack. Remember what happened to the DOW and the economy following that? Multiply that by about 1000 with several nukes going off one morning.

Like I said, I cannot believe they have not already done something. We've either thwarted thier attempts, or they just don't think the time is right, but it's coming.

I literally pray everyday that I am wrong. I WANT to be wrong. For all of the warts this country has, I love it, and do not want to see it get ripped apart.

Round up the usual suspects.

Quoted: on a global shtf scale, i'm going to go w/ the super caldera at yellow stone erupting.  probably the middle third of the country would be buried under a yard of ash.  and up to 1000km^3 of ash total pumped out - 6000 times more than st. helens.  we'd probably see and end of that growing season and likely a limited growing season for a few years after.  perhaps global cooling, longer winters, etc.  middle 3rd of the US impassible on ground for at least a while.   link

While very interesting I don't beleive it to be likely in our lifetime.

Quoted: Economic Natural disaster Terrorist attact that causes mass panic and economic disaster.  Look what happened to the Dow after 9-11.

Agree

Likely, or eventually?  Likely, it's economic, natural disaster, terrorism, in that order.

Eventually?   Armageddon.  It's coming, just wish I knew when.

Slow economic collapse.  Unemployment, poverty, crime rate, and inflation all way up.  Prosperity becomes hard to find.  Americans used to thriving with little effort now struggle to get by.  Seems to be happening on several fronts as we speak.  China rises to global dominance.  America's glory days behind it.  Who knows?  Maybe we'll stop the freefall in time.

Quoted: Quoted: "That would be likely to happen" I would say that it would be something that would cause the economy to tank to the point that Social Security and the WIC programs would lack the funds to issue the "entitlement checks" and the WIC cards stopped being loaded for all of the free food. Many things could push our economy to this point, be it another war (Iran), terrorist events within CONUS (nukes), Oboma/Clinton winning the White House, ect. Every major riots type is situation in the last several years required the local Law Enforcement agencies to rely on out side resources via mutual aid.  Be it man power, supplies, or both.  The case I'm sure most are aware of is the Gulf Coast after Katrina/Rita. What if that aid was not available because the event was nation wide?  If the welfare checks and food stamp cards stopped coming... I have been using this line of thought to feel out come co-workers within my Department.  We are an urban department of 1,200 officers. Almost all of our officers have spent some time working in one project or another.  Even those who have no clue about preparedness or survivalists all come up with the same conclusion.  We'd be screwed. I then mention something like "it'd be a REALLY bad time to have to run to Krogers or Wal Mart to get groceries, while the store is being looted and burned down!"  Which leads into a discussion on how it's not really that difficult to stock up on a few weeks worth of food.   So far, I have had a few officers tell me that it might not be a bad idea to buy an AR and some ammo. (Hmm, I never thought of that!)  Two that I know of just did. The economy and the fall out if it tanks, AKA 1929 crash, is what currently worries me the most. I am on a mission to convert as many people towards preparedness, all without knowing I am doing so.  I don't want  anyone to know about my preps.  By the time I'm usually done with the conversation, they are trying to convince me  into getting a SAM's Club card and going to the next gun show. The more people around me that have some level of preps, the less people around me that might be a threat if their  family is hungry and they know I have food.  The trick is to get people to realize the potential threat without them thinking you're paranoid, or without them knowing you have any preps.  (Don't want to encourage the "If the SHTF, I'll just come to your house" mentality!) Sorry if I got off topic, this has been on my mind alot lately. I'm not being smart here, but why should it worry you? Tj

I spend a large portion of my working day in neighborhoods where the majority of people are on SSI. The grocery stores (Krogers) in these neighborhoods hire off duty officers to cut down on shoplifting and robberies.  I spend too much time watching people getting their $400-500 worth of free groceries with WIC, then bitching when the high school kid working as a bagger doesn't bag their free groceries like they want.  All the wile, talking on their cell phones (the latest models with the blue tooth ear phones), the expensive hair designs that are fashionable in the culture, and dressed in the latest fashion.

If the checks stop coming, if the food stamp Credit cards (WIC) stop getting "reloaded" then I foresee large scale riots like the Gulf cost experienced during Katrina.  Only it could be nation wide, if the Social Security system crashes. How many large urban areas do not have a large population of people who have been on government assistance for at least 3-4 generations?

If things were to tank and there was civil unrest in several different areas of the country at the same time, there isn't a Department in the country that could deal with it if they had to rely totally on their own resources.  The concept of "Mutual Aid" that is used successfully throughout the country in Law Enforcement wouldn't work if the event was not localized, but nation wide.

Then again, sometimes I just worry too much...

Likely to happen and directly affecting my family?

Tornado.

As much as I enjoy preparednesses and find it prudent, that's about the worst I'm likely to face in my lifetime.

Economic? I really don't see it escalating to what I consider SHTF levels. Tough times for sure, but nothing like what I've seen in other nations that I would truly call SHTF.

Hurricanes? Non issue in my area.

Riots? I live in a peaceful town of 5,000 more that 50 miles from anything that would be considered urban.

Terrorism? See above.

Cold War style all out nuclear exchange? I don't consider that likely.

So yeah, it's tornadoes that are most likely to induce a SHTF to me. And there ain't no round for those. The only other thing I can think of that I could consider likely is a pandemic such as the Spanish Flu, or dealing with evacuees from a major (NBC) terror strike.

Quoted: Quoted: on a global shtf scale, i'm going to go w/ the super caldera at yellow stone erupting.  probably the middle third of the country would be buried under a yard of ash.  and up to 1000km^3 of ash total pumped out - 6000 times more than st. helens.  we'd probably see and end of that growing season and likely a limited growing season for a few years after.  perhaps global cooling, longer winters, etc.  middle 3rd of the US impassible on ground for at least a while.   link While very interesting I don't beleive it to be likely in our lifetime.

doh, guess i missed the most likely part of the OP's post.  an eruption is 40,000 years overdue, although there's only two data points that mark the trend - a little too few for me to trust.

as far as most likely, i'd say pandemic.

Yellowstone eruption , after that nothing matters .........

Quoted: Does it go without saying that the worst SHTF would be nuclear terrorism?  How likely is it?  I don't know.  Let's hope "not likely at all."  But I am somewhat less than comforted by the combination of loose nukes, suicide commandos, and the joke that passes for border security in this country. As regards economic meltdown and the effect it has on crime, you are right.  It is by no accident that some of the most violent and bloody crime sprees (Dillinger Gang, Bonnie & Clyde, etc) in this country's history took place during the Great Depression.  Poverty tends to bring out the meanest side of human nature.

I know:  If a democrat is elected this November, a nuclear weapon will be detonated on US soil by the end of 2010.

Bet on it.

around here...other than nukes, calderas, and asteroids:

economic bad times (possible to likely)
really bad ice storm, no power for weeks, tough travel, cold (possible to likely)
terrorism, dirty bomb, etc (????)
riots caused by anything above or otherwise

Quoted: how about Obama winning then this country  goes in the crapper

Very likely but not romantic enough.

Our most likely SHTF is a slow transition to socialism that we are already on to keep the sheeple from willingly rising against it.  It was our founding fathers greatest fear and its looking like our reality.

" Experience hath shewn, that Mankind are more disposed to suffer, while Evils are sufferable, than to right themselves by abolishing the Forms to which they are accustomed. But when a long Train of Abuses and Usurpations, pursuing invariably the same Object, evinces a Design to reduce them under absolute Despotism, it is their Right, it is their Duty, to throw off such Government, and to provide new Guards for their future Security. "

At least thats what I think they ment

Quoted: [ Being truthful to myself, I don't know which is worse the stress of a higher standard of living or the toil of a lower one.  I ask myself often.   Tj

great comment, tj.  this is why living below your means is so beautiful.

Worst= caldera doesn't remain beneath Yellowstone

Sponge Bob would go off the air.

The worst SHTF that would be likely to happen?

Obama or McCain become President. We are fucked no matter which one wins.

Quoted: Worst= caldera doesn't remain beneath Yellowstone

unlikely, but yes.  this would reduce the US to third world status overnight.

Dirty nukes that cause a lot of fallout, would be hard to plant any food since the topsoil would have to be removed or tilled over which would allow food to grow but the radiation would still be there. Also it would kill a lot of animals that you may need to hunt to survive. Not to mention the sheer destruction it would have on a major city and how that could hurt the rest of the country financially.

Quoted: Dirty nukes that cause a lot of fallout, would be hard to plant any food since the topsoil would have to be removed or tilled over which would allow food to grow but the radiation would still be there. Also it would kill a lot of animals that you may need to hunt to survive. Not to mention the sheer destruction it would have on a major city and how that could hurt the rest of the country financially.

dirty nukes are small and very localized, I may be wrong, but I don't think they can cause the level of fallout your predicting.

Quoted: Long term: The continued decline of our civilization leading either to an oppressive police state or to anarchy where survival of the fittest rules.

no such thing will ever happen.  Just look at Africa.  Survival of the fittest turns into druglords, and even that IMHO is still a sort of structure

pretty funny about spongebob going off the air.

I think we have all summed up the worst of the worst.


Not prodcing anymore toilet paper, 2ply....now that would suck.