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12/6/2019 7:27:02 PM
Posted: 3/13/2011 6:12:21 PM EST
I'm trying to wrap my head around this one. I can't seem to figure out what kind of effects we might feel in the USA from the recent earthquake and tsunami.
Japan buys a whole lot of our debt and holds a lot right now. Will they keep buying or will they need to use some of their reserve T-Bills for rebuilding?

Aside from normal prepping is there anything I should be doing specifically in the coming days and weeks with these current events in mind.
Link Posted: 3/13/2011 6:44:51 PM EST
I'd be shocked if the stock markets around the world weren't negatively impacted by the Japanese catastrophe and the continued turmoil in the Middle East.
Link Posted: 3/13/2011 6:59:04 PM EST
My major concern is the possibility of radioactive fallout if the nuke plants cook off. Admittedly, it's a very slim chance of a problem.

You can bet that building material prices will go thru the roof..

Ops
Link Posted: 3/13/2011 7:03:20 PM EST
I think there will be runs on the iodine products to protect against radiation. Some markets will fall, but I believe American automakers will see their stock rise as Japanese car makers in the states should face shortages of parts.
Link Posted: 3/13/2011 7:07:34 PM EST
[Last Edit: 3/13/2011 7:07:48 PM EST by Skibane]
Construction of new nuclear power plants in this country will be canceled or postponed indefinitely.

We'll see soaring electricity rates and more blackouts, thanks to "investments" in feel-good "alternative energy" schemes.
Link Posted: 3/13/2011 7:25:26 PM EST
[Last Edit: 3/13/2011 7:26:13 PM EST by Bad_Example]
What is not known at this time ( that I know of ) is the amount of manufacturing plants in the area that have been affected. When the quake hit Kobe there was a lot of factories that were shutdown and replacement parts took months to be delivered here in the states.



Link Posted: 3/13/2011 7:56:50 PM EST
Also looking at the before and after photos, lots of agriculture land is out of commission. So local grown foods are out and will have to be imported.

Some of the stock shows said this will not impact the global markets too much. This is more a local/regional disaster than a world wide event. Had this happened to any oil producing areas, then this would be a different story.
Link Posted: 3/13/2011 8:29:15 PM EST
Originally Posted By Skibane:
Construction of new nuclear power plants in this country will be canceled or postponed indefinitely.

We'll see soaring electricity rates and more blackouts, thanks to "investments" in feel-good "alternative energy" schemes.


This - at a time when investment in nuclear energy would be a huge benefit to our country.
Link Posted: 3/14/2011 2:34:23 AM EST

Originally Posted By Bad_Example:
Also looking at the before and after photos, lots of agriculture land is out of commission. So local grown foods are out and will have to be imported.

Some of the stock shows said this will not impact the global markets too much. This is more a local/regional disaster than a world wide event. Had this happened to any oil producing areas, then this would be a different story.

Japan's index fell > 5%, and most of the other regional markets were down 1% +/-, but this was before the close. I'm guessing we have a selloff, since we've hit a ceiling anyway...


WSJ News Alert

Tokyo shares fell sharply in early Asia trade Monday after the massive quake that struck Japan and caused a destructive tsunami, while shares in the rest of the region were also weakening.

Investors were watching closely to see how foreign investors responded; the quake hit late Friday just before Tokyo stock markets closed, so many investors wouldn't have had a chance to react.

The benchmark Nikkei Stock Average was recently 5.2% lower at 9724.01, breaking below the key 10,000 level, with Australia's S&P/ASX 200 down 1.5%, New Zealand's NZX-50 off 0.7% and Korea's Kospi Composite down 0.9%.

<snip>

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704893604576199200013430230.html?mod=djemalertNEWS



Link Posted: 3/14/2011 2:58:16 AM EST
Originally Posted By Bad_Example:
What is not known at this time ( that I know of ) is the amount of manufacturing plants in the area that have been affected. When the quake hit Kobe there was a lot of factories that were shutdown and replacement parts took months to be delivered here in the states.

IMO this is going to be a big one, especially in industries that practice JIT deliveries.

Also, if you drive a Toyota or Honda you might want to pick up some spare parts now if the overseas factories can't turn them out, or can't get them to consumers quickly because of damage to infrastructure.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-11/toyota-other-japanese-companies-assessing-damage-from-miyagi-earthquake.html
Link Posted: 3/14/2011 3:36:47 AM EST
Japan might need to depend on the US plants a bit more considering their assembly lines are down indefinitely. I am betting many of their parts are made in China so there wont be that much of a disruption - especially in our 3rd party aftermarket replacement parts.
Link Posted: 3/14/2011 4:00:57 AM EST
Originally Posted By Skibane:
Construction of new nuclear power plants in this country will be canceled or postponed indefinitely.

We'll see soaring electricity rates and more blackouts, thanks to "investments" in feel-good "alternative energy" schemes.


can't remember the senator's name right now, but seen him on meet the press yesterday morning saying how the USA should put a moratorium on building new nuclear power facilities for the foreseeable future until geologist can determine the stability of the area they are to be built in, then the facilities should be constructed to withstand twice the sizemic activity that may occur

all I see it as is an excuse to raise energy prices

Link Posted: 3/14/2011 4:03:38 AM EST
I wouldn't be surprised if Obama shut down the 23 U.S. reactors that are about identical to the problem ones in Japan.
Link Posted: 3/14/2011 4:45:33 AM EST
Originally Posted By MustangMike:
I'm trying to wrap my head around this one. I can't seem to figure out what kind of effects we might feel in the USA from the recent earthquake and tsunami.
Japan buys a whole lot of our debt and holds a lot right now. Will they keep buying or will they need to use some of their reserve T-Bills for rebuilding?

Aside from normal prepping is there anything I should be doing specifically in the coming days and weeks with these current events in mind.


The markets are going to take a hit, and anything being made in Japan is pretty much on hold or stopped for who knows how long....That being said if the market and dollar drop in value, silver and gold would/should go up, also anything you want that is electronic from there, there will be a shortage possible or a higher demand for the goods and services from there, they have the factories shut down, the car companies, nissan and Toyota shut down, don't know when they will start up again...limited supply of there goods. Buy what you need from there now. GPS, Radio(ham), generators, ect...(is honda made in japan?)

Link Posted: 3/14/2011 4:48:32 AM EST
Originally Posted By Ops:
My major concern is the possibility of radioactive fallout if the nuke plants cook off. Admittedly, it's a very slim chance of a problem.

You can bet that building material prices will go thru the roof..

Ops


True, I personally think the power plant info is being held back. I think after the help in search and rescue is well under control, they will let more of the cat out of the bag.
Link Posted: 3/14/2011 5:18:44 AM EST
Originally Posted By Skibane:
Construction of new nuclear power plants in this country will be canceled or postponed indefinitely.

We'll see soaring electricity rates and more blackouts, thanks to "investments" in feel-good "alternative energy" schemes.


This

TXL
Link Posted: 3/14/2011 7:18:47 AM EST
Originally Posted By Ndenway:
can't remember the senator's name right now, but seen him on meet the press yesterday morning saying how the USA should put a moratorium on building new nuclear power facilities for the foreseeable future until geologist can determine the stability of the area they are to be built in, then the facilities should be constructed to withstand twice the sizemic activity that may occur


Joe Lieberman was quoted as saying essentially the same thing. Yesterday, Angela Merkel suspended a plan to extend the operating life of Germany's 17 nuclear plants.

Knee-jerkers.
Link Posted: 3/14/2011 7:47:14 AM EST
NBC gear will be the next craze on all the Sf forums..

Im with the energy issues. Push the green AE agenda will holding us back ( black outs,no new plants,shutting down old ones- think like refineries )EPA will get some more teeth in certain areas.
Sides that,most of what will happen will be knee jerking. The issue , as already pointed out is, when the rest of the world jerks at once,spilling my damn beer.
Link Posted: 3/14/2011 7:56:28 AM EST
KIO3 pills are selling for $1000 a bottle on ebay. glad i paid $12 for mine.
Link Posted: 3/14/2011 8:09:20 AM EST
As a Kubota dealer I just ordered an extra amount of inventory to deal with a potential shortage.
Link Posted: 3/14/2011 8:50:25 AM EST

Originally Posted By sksAL:
KIO3 pills are selling for $1000 a bottle on ebay. glad i paid $12 for mine.

hahahah no kidding.... I just stocked more last month....

So maybe this would be like investing in silver
Link Posted: 3/14/2011 10:00:45 AM EST
[Last Edit: 3/14/2011 10:03:53 AM EST by JPL]
Originally Posted By philspel:
As a Kubota dealer I just ordered an extra amount of inventory to deal with a potential shortage.


Philspel, I am also a Kubota dealer. I've got a good amount of inventory, but did order some more M-series this morning. (5140, 6040, and M110X) However, we've been talking about what parts could be short and I was wondering if you guys have put together a list of potential parts I should order as a hedge.
Link Posted: 3/14/2011 10:14:39 AM EST
Economic problems and opportunistic politicians will be two broad side-effects. This will result in another layer added to the shit sandwich we are already eating. Bon apetit!
Link Posted: 3/14/2011 10:18:58 AM EST
We'll send millions in aid we can't afford
Link Posted: 3/14/2011 10:25:06 AM EST
The obama administration will use this horrific disaster for all it's worth and then some.
Link Posted: 3/14/2011 11:08:19 AM EST
Originally Posted By Skibane:
Construction of new nuclear power plants in this country will be canceled or postponed indefinitely.

We'll see soaring electricity rates and more blackouts, thanks to "investments" in feel-good "alternative energy" schemes.


this

also in Germany they had planned on keeping a few older once online but now after what happened in Japan they will be taken offline.

German Reactors - Japans Reactors

Link Posted: 3/14/2011 12:53:29 PM EST
Originally Posted By JPL:
Originally Posted By philspel:
As a Kubota dealer I just ordered an extra amount of inventory to deal with a potential shortage.


Philspel, I am also a Kubota dealer. I've got a good amount of inventory, but did order some more M-series this morning. (5140, 6040, and M110X) However, we've been talking about what parts could be short and I was wondering if you guys have put together a list of potential parts I should order as a hedge.



I"m working on with my parts mgr now. I ordered some extra mx's and zg/zd's today. I had a bonanza on mx and zg227's this last two weeks. I have him running a fastest moving parts report today and I will decide if we need to hedge any parts. There has been lots of parts being air shipped recently and I am fearing a parts shortage. I often want to kick someone from Kubota in the nads for their lack of wholegoods/parts in the warehouse quite often...
Link Posted: 3/14/2011 3:06:50 PM EST
Originally Posted By Fourman:

Originally Posted By sksAL:
KIO3 pills are selling for $1000 a bottle on ebay. glad i paid $12 for mine.

hahahah no kidding.... I just stocked more last month....

So maybe this would be like investing in silver


$12 investment, $1000. thats a skosh better return than silver, not that its bad to get silver.
Link Posted: 3/14/2011 3:07:58 PM EST
My guess:
Any reduction in Nuke power is bad for the economy. This could be both a PR thing, or damage to the plants in Japan that make the heavy forgings. Nuke power is good for the economy (lots of high paying jobs, most capital and parts sourced in the US.) A lot of enviromentalists with technical backgrounds favor nuke power. Even after this, it will still have a better safety record then coal (China has been loosing 6000 people a year to coal mine accidents) It has zero global warming potential. And DOD has shown you can safely dispose of the waste.

To get generation capacity up quickly, japan is likely to increase use of gas and oil fired generator. Right now, inefficient peak plants are probally running wide open. Companies may be incentivised to run their backup generators as peak shaving (or in reaction to rolling blackouts.) None of this is good for oil prices.

Any interuption to imports will be a disruption to the company purchasing in the US. A bad economy will hurt exports. If there is a fear of radioactive contamination, their may be an increase in ag exports. Japan is very scared of Mad Cow disease, and the risk of this in US beef is minute compaired to Europe (mostly due to cotton and soy production in the US.) Similarly they may import soy to reduce grass feeding if there is Sr-90 contamination.
Link Posted: 3/14/2011 3:19:28 PM EST

Originally Posted By Skibane:
Construction of new nuclear power plants in this country will be canceled or postponed indefinitely.

We'll see soaring electricity rates and more blackouts, thanks to "investments" in feel-good "alternative energy" schemes.

Yep.
Link Posted: 3/14/2011 4:00:08 PM EST
Originally Posted By philspel:
Originally Posted By JPL:
Originally Posted By philspel:
As a Kubota dealer I just ordered an extra amount of inventory to deal with a potential shortage.


Philspel, I am also a Kubota dealer. I've got a good amount of inventory, but did order some more M-series this morning. (5140, 6040, and M110X) However, we've been talking about what parts could be short and I was wondering if you guys have put together a list of potential parts I should order as a hedge.



I"m working on with my parts mgr now. I ordered some extra mx's and zg/zd's today. I had a bonanza on mx and zg227's this last two weeks. I have him running a fastest moving parts report today and I will decide if we need to hedge any parts. There has been lots of parts being air shipped recently and I am fearing a parts shortage. I often want to kick someone from Kubota in the nads for their lack of wholegoods/parts in the warehouse quite often...


You too huh? I don't know how long you've been a dealer (us since '90), but it used to not be nearly this bad. I recently had to scrounge other dealers for an L8305 valve for a customers L-series and for a set of HD worksite tires for an 1100 I sold.
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