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Posted: 3/10/2011 8:40:42 PM EST
Just saw on Fox that Japan was hit with an 8.8 earth quake. Now they are talking about the risk of tsunami. Things sure can change in blink of an eye...
Link Posted: 3/10/2011 8:54:20 PM EST
http://www.ar15.com/forums/topic.html?b=1&f=5&t=1160712
GD discussion for cross reference...
Link Posted: 3/11/2011 12:36:56 AM EST
Originally Posted By locknloadNM:
Just saw on Fox that Japan was hit with an 8.8 earth quake. Now they are talking about the risk of tsunami. Things sure can change in blink of an eye...


Tsunami report I heard was 2 meter. Not really huge, but big enough to drastically effect low-lying coastal areas.
Link Posted: 3/11/2011 12:48:58 AM EST
[Last Edit: 3/11/2011 1:31:32 AM EST by Frog_Legs]
Just watched some video at CNN Video

Looks bad enough if you are in the path. Check out the car on the highway trying to get out of Dodge.

ETA: Raw Video Footage from AP

There are always lessons to be learned from a disaster. There's also lots of . Check the guy standing on the bridge.
Link Posted: 3/11/2011 1:10:21 AM EST
Some prep tips are coming out of the disaster:

Some families have bike helmets to protect family members heads from falling debris.
Cell phones are not working

Probably more to follow.
Link Posted: 3/11/2011 1:20:53 AM EST
Most severe earth quake ever re orded in japan. Tsunami and warning for the pacific countries. And the worst imo a nuclear emergency! No details so far but they cannot cool a part of a nuclear plant. Back up generators not working. C'est le temps de lever les feutres!! (bug the f out)! To follow...
Link Posted: 3/11/2011 1:44:54 AM EST
how badly do you think this will effect prices here?
Link Posted: 3/11/2011 1:51:47 AM EST
Originally Posted By Echo2:
how badly do you think this will effect prices here?



Of what?

When I was a boy, seems all the junk was made in Japan.
Now it's China.
What does Japan even produce anymore, other than some electronics?



Link Posted: 3/11/2011 2:07:09 AM EST
Now, if what I'm hearing is right, coolant problem causing a Nuclear emergency.
Link Posted: 3/11/2011 2:43:29 AM EST
Last report, Tsunami hits Hawaii in about an hour.
Link Posted: 3/11/2011 3:03:08 AM EST
Originally Posted By Dave15:
Originally Posted By Echo2:
how badly do you think this will effect prices here?



Of what?

When I was a boy, seems all the junk was made in Japan.
Now it's China.
What does Japan even produce anymore, other than some electronics?





It doesn't matter if they produce anything for us or not.....where does most our oil come....and what has happened to prices because of civil unrest....
Link Posted: 3/11/2011 3:29:33 AM EST
It's sounding like there may be a meltdown coming in Japan, and the water is has pulled back 150' before the Tsunami wave on Kawaii hits.

God bless us all.
Link Posted: 3/11/2011 4:01:01 AM EST
Originally Posted By Dave15:
Originally Posted By Echo2:
how badly do you think this will effect prices here?



Of what?

When I was a boy, seems all the junk was made in Japan.
Now it's China.
What does Japan even produce anymore, other than some electronics?





china will raise it's rates for funds lent to the USA and the dollar will devalue somemore.
Link Posted: 3/11/2011 4:07:26 AM EST
The Pacific Tsunami Warning Center has released measurements of tsunami wave activity on Kauai and Oahu:

NAWILIWILI KAUAI 22.0N 159.4W 1311Z 0.64M / 2.1FT 26MIN

HALEIWA HI 21.6N 158.1W 1316Z 1.00M / 3.3FT 56MIN

MAKAPU'U HI 21.3N 158.1W 1312Z 0.50M / 1.6FT 52MIN

HANALEI HI 22.2N 159.5W 1306Z 0.85M / 2.8FT 28MIN

TERN FR. FRIGATE US 23.9N 166.3W 1224Z 0.37M / 1.2FT 16MIN
Link Posted: 3/11/2011 4:38:00 AM EST
Realtime RSOE EDIS Emergency Disaster Website...you can zoom in and select each event or alert for further details.

http://hisz.rsoe.hu/alertmap/index2.php?area=asia&lang=eng
Link Posted: 3/11/2011 4:49:20 AM EST
Originally Posted By Dave15:
Originally Posted By Echo2:
how badly do you think this will effect prices here?



Of what?

When I was a boy, seems all the junk was made in Japan.
Now it's China.
What does Japan even produce anymore, other than some electronics?





Japan makes car, computers, uses alot of oil for manufacturing, chemical plants, 2 or 3 nuke plants have been effected, emergency services use an ass load of fuel to ship goods and for setting up areas for the people to stay warm and to feed them..temps there are about 35 degrees F.
Then you have all the services needed for a rebuild of the area, that will take years and tons of fuel and equipment, that probably was destrayed or washed away with the water...if a nuke plant and chemical plant leak/spill there waste or material, it could destroy the land /area for many years to come, not to mention what effects it could have on the people that are flooded and have that material get on them....this is really bad for the people of Japan and for there economy...
This to me would be a SHTF.

Link Posted: 3/11/2011 4:50:33 AM EST
Originally Posted By dhmjr40:
Now, if what I'm hearing is right, coolant problem causing a Nuclear emergency.


It was a service water feed pump used to cool the reactor according to Fox news.
Link Posted: 3/11/2011 5:22:50 AM EST
Originally Posted By SALTDOG:
Originally Posted By dhmjr40:
Now, if what I'm hearing is right, coolant problem causing a Nuclear emergency.


It was a service water feed pump used to cool the reactor according to Fox news.


http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/mar/11/japan-declares-nuclear-emergency-quake
11 reactors shut down. the one in Fukushima shut down, but the cooling system is damaged and the water level in the reactor is falling.(takes a long time for the reactor to cool down)
gov says "everything is fine!....but you need to evacuate"
Link Posted: 3/11/2011 5:25:59 AM EST
Better to evac folks BEFORE there is a containment failure, than to try to do it during or after failure.
Link Posted: 3/11/2011 5:56:06 AM EST
[Last Edit: 3/11/2011 5:57:56 AM EST by SALTDOG]
Originally Posted By vic-303:
Better to evac folks BEFORE there is a containment failure, than to try to do it during or after failure.


Everything is shut down so until the military gets in and they are 14 hours behind us , so its night and dark there now with no power and 35 degrees F there today...people are homeless and probably going to freeze, plus the aftershaocks are comming in for them like crazy. Plus a dam just gave way and washed away many homes...unknown death toll and it is not even close to being done.
Link Posted: 3/11/2011 6:02:14 AM EST
Link Posted: 3/11/2011 6:04:33 AM EST
Interesting lesson learned...

I have heard their telephones are still down but the internet is working! So, many are using twitter, facebook, and e-mail to communicate.
Link Posted: 3/11/2011 6:35:55 AM EST
I think my panasonic toughbook was assembled in japan. I don't need another one but stuff like parts and batteries might be made there.

As mentioned the vehicles could be affected somewhat, I figure there should be a glut on the dealer lots but I honestly don't keep up with it. Same might be said for spare parts as well, don't know how much is outsourced.

Gaming systems don't bother me a bit.

Now consider what japan is going to need to repair and rebuild.

They are going to be getting help from many and will need a lot of basic supplies to feed and house people and start repairing what can be repaired.

What needs torn down will get torn down and replaced.

There will be a lot of food and fuel and building supplies used in japan in the next couple years.

Link Posted: 3/11/2011 6:42:05 AM EST
Originally Posted By Dave15:
Originally Posted By Echo2:
how badly do you think this will effect prices here?



Of what?

When I was a boy, seems all the junk was made in Japan.
Now it's China.
What does Japan even produce anymore, other than some electronics?




The Kubota tractors I sell to make a living!
Link Posted: 3/11/2011 6:51:08 AM EST

Originally Posted By Quarterbore:
Interesting lesson learned...

I have heard their telephones are still down but the internet is working! So, many are using twitter, facebook, and e-mail to communicate.

I spoke to my BIL on Okinawa this morning via Skype. I don't know what the routing to get from Philadelphia to a neighborhood near Kadena AFB is, but it worked just fine.

Okinawa was far enough away to not be directly affected by the quake, BTW. They did get a tsunami, but it was just a very small swell.
Link Posted: 3/11/2011 7:35:17 AM EST
[Last Edit: 3/11/2011 7:39:18 AM EST by Quarterbore]
I just heard a rummor that that Nuke Plant is building up pressure and the Japanese may need to release radioactive steam to help reduce pressure (Didn't find it in Fox or CBS so not sure). Reminds me, I don't have potassium iodate tablets and we live in the shadow of a Nuke power plant!

Related links:

http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20110311-711500.html

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/12/world/asia/12nuclear.html
Link Posted: 3/11/2011 7:37:23 AM EST
Originally Posted By Quarterbore:
Interesting lesson learned...

I have heard their telephones are still down but the internet is working! So, many are using twitter, facebook, and e-mail to communicate.


Yes, seems many folks managed to contact their relatives and tell them thier safe through twitter and facebook. More than enough reason to have them on your phone ready and know how to use it in case you manage to send a message out during a disaster. Also if it has wi fi you may be able to scrounge wifi in some other hot spot.
A shockproof/waterpoof phone would be ideal for this type of situaiton, sometihng with long battery life too. Something like the JBC Toughphone or the S1.
Tom Frost, a fellow blogger, expat from USA that was living in Buenos Aires, he moved to Japan a couple months ago, hope he's ok.
FerFAL
Link Posted: 3/11/2011 8:57:42 AM EST
#
1851: More on the troubled nuclear plant: Japan's trade minister, Banri Kaieda, says authorities are nearing a decision to release radioactive steam from the Fukushima nuclear reactor in a bid to ease a build-up of pressure, AFP reports. Thousands of local residents have been evacuated.
Link Posted: 3/11/2011 9:24:53 AM EST
I have been to Japan several times, and have many Japanese business /personal friends. My wife has been able to contact a few via email today.
As far as I know, none of our close friends have been hurt or killed, or have had their homes destroyed.
Link Posted: 3/11/2011 9:33:37 AM EST
Link Posted: 3/11/2011 9:56:39 AM EST
Wow the pics and video on Fox is amazing!

Link Posted: 3/11/2011 10:19:42 AM EST
Pray for them. Its getting worse by the hour.
Link Posted: 3/11/2011 10:42:12 AM EST
[Last Edit: 3/11/2011 10:43:31 AM EST by FNFalGuy]
I have been to Japan some 3-4 times and have many friends living in Osaka to Tokyo. Our thoughts and prayers are with them.

One note of interest: The Walt Disney World Resort & Park in Japan is not far Narita Airport and the place of much of the devastation seen on TV. If the tsunami would've happened during Spring or Summer months and reached a bit further in-land, the death toll would've been even more grizzly.
Link Posted: 3/11/2011 12:23:26 PM EST
[Last Edit: 3/11/2011 12:26:30 PM EST by Quarterbore]
Link Posted: 3/11/2011 12:27:56 PM EST
Well damn, that's not good.

My prayers are with those people over there.
Link Posted: 3/11/2011 12:34:01 PM EST
[Last Edit: 3/11/2011 12:54:22 PM EST by SPBCTS]
Seven U.S. Navy Ships enroute now, one is the R.R. CVN. Looks like airlift is going to be a huge need for awhile, and they are still dealing with the pressure rise in this nuke plant that is 1.5 times normal.
Japan is in for a rough time for a long time.
So is the north coast of Ca., and Oregon.
Link Posted: 3/11/2011 12:52:57 PM EST
[Last Edit: 3/11/2011 12:54:04 PM EST by mks99]
Originally Posted By Quarterbore:
http://www.foxnews.com/world/2011/03/11/japan-issues-emergency-nuke-plant-leak/

Radiation levels climbing OUTSIDE of nuke plant!


This is due to the fact that they are venting pressure (steam) from the cooling loop of the reactor. This is a pressurized, boiling water reactor made by GE. Neighbor works as a trainer on a local one. They are reporting 1000x normal locally which really isn't going to kill you. We're talking the multiple medical x-ray exposure level. You just don't want to suck it up long.

The nice part about PWBR's is that they already have a lot of water in them. From what I can make out from the news reports the reactors all shutdown correctly and the diesels kicked in for back up power to run the pumps and valves. This unit seems to have suffered a multiple pump failure on the cooling loop. The reason they are probably dumping the pressure is so that they can use auxiliary pumps to just pump cooling water directly into the core. They also may be going to pump a moderator in instead of water. (beryllium?? maybe)

Full melt down mode is pretty far away at this point.

Now those poor guys at the refinery have got a REAL problem. Did you see the flames engulfing the pressure spheres for liquefied gases?? They seem to be venting normally, but one of those puppies rolls over or breaks open you are talking a MASSIVE fuel/air bomb. I'm MUCH more afraid of that than a melt down. (now if they can't get the nuke down in temp within another 8 hours or so.........fo, fo, fo...)
Link Posted: 3/11/2011 1:36:38 PM EST
So if a "chernobyl" type scenario happens in Japan, how much of the island would be uninhabitable?
Link Posted: 3/11/2011 1:38:07 PM EST
Venting is a last resort to prevent an explosion of the reactor pressure vessel. This was done at Three mile Island. From the reports I've seen, the diesel generators have been damaged by the tsunami and hence no power to run pumps. Steam builds up and pressure increases as the water boils off. Interesting info: Even with the reactor shut down, cooling still needs to be in place. Even spent fuel pools need cooling and the "time to boil" is usually discussed at morning meetings so personnel have an understanding of the urgency in event of cooling being disabled. Once coolant (demineralized water) is boiled away enough to expose an activated fuel bundle, meltdown begins. From what I've read, this is BWR 4.
Link Posted: 3/11/2011 1:56:34 PM EST
If anyone knows how to deal with massive amounts of radiation, it's the Japanese.
Link Posted: 3/11/2011 2:11:58 PM EST
Originally Posted By pighelmet:
If anyone knows how to deal with massive amounts of radiation, it's the Japanese.


I think a meltdown would be worse for radioactive contamination than a nuclear weapon. Alot of fuel in a reactor.
Link Posted: 3/11/2011 2:33:07 PM EST
I've got family in Japan right now. My mother is there on business, my grandma lives in Sendai, and I have an aunt around there somewhere. Here's the last message I got from my sister who's trying to get a hold of everyone:

"Mom is in Kyoto right now, where all the hotels are booked. She has
A room for tonight, but if Shinkansen (bullet train) does not move
tororrow, which is likely, she will have no hotel, might have to move
farther into the country. However, her phone lines are ok, and there
is food/water. From my mom: no trains are moving. No buses, airports
closed.

My aunt is in Tokyo, and is ok. I'm not sure what the state is in her
burb, but she says she's ok.

The only concern right now is Gma, who is in Sendai, which was hit by
the tsunami. She went swimming in the morning and should have been
home by the time it hit, unless she diddled around. If she was home, she
would be inland far enough and be ok. Her phone rings but no answer.
She either vacated her house and got into the shelter (they keep
Track of the elderly and will come pick them up if they need to be
evacuated) or telephone is out of order. Sendai is black out. My aunt Kumiko
cannot get hold of Sendai police, my mother's friend, emergency
agency, nothing. Food at the stores at Sendai is all gone
, TV is saying.
Also, it snowed this a.m. so it's cold, problem if the electricity is out.

I'm sure Gma will turn up shortly, once communication has been restored
a bit. Thanks again for all your prayers and warm fuzzy thoughts!"

I am not as optimistic as my sister is, nor do I trust the authorities to "round up the elderly" or do anything in a efficient capacity at this time. I will post updates as they come. I am interested to see how well/poorly the Japanese respond, compared to FEMA ala Katrina.
Link Posted: 3/11/2011 2:40:52 PM EST

Originally Posted By Murooka:
I've got family in Japan right now. My mother is there on business, my grandma lives in Sendai, and I have an aunt around there somewhere. Here's the last message I got from my sister who's trying to get a hold of everyone:


Best wishes to you and your family right now.


Link Posted: 3/11/2011 2:44:55 PM EST
OUr prayers for you and your family.
Link Posted: 3/11/2011 3:04:45 PM EST
Originally Posted By TheWind:
OUr prayers for you and your family.


+1 prayers inbound
Link Posted: 3/11/2011 3:05:40 PM EST
Wow, I watched the news broadcast until I couldn't keep my eyes open. The problem is that they have all these nuke power plants down, and a good portion of Japan is without power, and they are not going to get power back anytime soon. I have reading the news media, and they said that one of the plants was actually damaged by the water. I wonder how they are going to get the electrical power system back up. I hope somone has a Plan B somewhere, because Japan is going to need it.
Link Posted: 3/11/2011 3:10:40 PM EST
Originally Posted By Dave15:
Originally Posted By Echo2:
how badly do you think this will effect prices here?



Of what?

What does Japan even produce anymore, other than some electronics?





heavy industrial equipment and machinery. John Deere tractors.

Link Posted: 3/11/2011 3:38:24 PM EST
[Last Edit: 3/11/2011 3:41:30 PM EST by JacobBoyd]
My thoughts on the nuclear situation in japan. Yes , I work in nuclear power.0

There is a great deal of information flying around that just does not make sense. There just seems to be no detailed technical information getting out to the public on this. At the risk of over simplifying the system, a BWR is like a giant pot of boiling water. Regular light water, not heavy water, goes through the reactor, is heated by the splitting of uranium atoms, turns to steam and spins a turbine-generator to make electricity. The steam is condensed back to water and pumped back into the reactor to continue the cycle. There are 3 basic barriers to the release of radiation, the metal clad that encases the uranium fuel, the reactor pressure vessel, and the containment. If 2 of these 3 are compromised and the third is in jeopardy, US plants will advise shelter or evacuation of nearby residents. The reactor operates at a normal pressure of about 1000 psig. During an earthquake of this magnitude, the reactor would be expected to automatically shut down (called a reactor scram). Control rods are hydraulically driven into the core in less than 7 seconds. I do not know if this took place but if it did not, we’d probably hear about it because it would be such a big deal. Even with rods inserted, the reactor continues to produce heat equivalent to about 3% of its full power level. This is not the same as taking a pot off the stove and letting it cool. There are still some atoms splitting and fission products decaying that produce heat. This drops off slowly and is why there needs to be layers of redundant cooling with backup power. During such an earthquake, power from outside the plant would not be expected to be available. The plants have several back up diesel generators (locomotive style engines) that supply power to motor driven cooling systems that will supply high flow of water up to about 300 psig.. There are also steam driven systems to supply cooling water up to 1100 psig. There are also pressure relief systems that active at about 1100 psig. If reactor pressure gets too high, relief valves open and discharge steam to a water filled pool inside the containment.

Here are some things that do not make sense, Reports that the pressure is 1.5 times normal. There are at least 10 relief valves and any one can handle the energy after a plant shut down. CNN reports the US military has flown coolant to the site. The coolant they use is regular water; I can’t imagine why the US would need to fly in coolant.

Right now I’d want to know a few things.
Are all rods fully inserted? What is the water level in the reactor? It’s normally about 12 feet above the top of the fuel. What injection systems are available? What is the reactor pressure? What is the status of containment?

Based on limited information, this is what I think might happen.
Earthquake hits, high vibration on the main turbine automatically trips the turbine by rapidly closing stop valves. Reactor automatically shuts down (scrams) all rods go in. Earthquake disrupts off site power to the plant and back up diesel generators should have started, maybe they did not. Main sources of water to the reactor are not available. If there is no pipe break off of the reactor, the pressure will slowly increase. After about an hour, a relief valve(1 of about 10) will open at about 1100 psig and drop pressure to about 1080. The steam is sent to a pool of water called a suppression pool in the containment that condenses the steam. This valve will cycle open and close every 5-10 minutes. Operators would use a small steam driven turbine (RCIC) to supply water at high pressure to the reactor under these circumstances for several hours. You can sit like this a long time, hot and at 1000 psig it’s no big deal as long as water covers the fuel in the reactor pressure vessel. If that turbine is not available, there is a larger steam driven turbine (HPCI) that supplies more water meant to provide make up if there was a pipe break. If neither of these systems is available, the relief valve will continue to cycle and reactor water level will slowly drop. At some point before the water level lowers to the point of uncovering the fuel, all the relief valves would be open (ADS) and pressure would be reduced to below 300 psig to allow the low pressure but high flow systems (CS & LPCI) to restore water level and cooling. These pumps however, need electricity, like from the diesel generators, to run. If things get this far but there is no injection, in US plants there are things like diesel fire pumps that can be tied in to provide alternate sources of water. I’m not sure if they are set up to do this in Japan. Without cooling, eventually the fuel temperature will exceed 2200 deg F and the clad will melt. Fission products that are highly radioactive will get dispersed into the reactor vessel. If there is a pipe break or relief valve open, those fission fragments get dispersed through containment.
Link Posted: 3/11/2011 3:43:14 PM EST
They had to have vent pressure. One of the only ways to get excessive radiation outside containment.

Originally Posted By Quarterbore:
http://www.foxnews.com/world/2011/03/11/japan-issues-emergency-nuke-plant-leak/

Radiation levels climbing OUTSIDE of nuke plant!


Link Posted: 3/11/2011 6:04:17 PM EST
JacobBoyd - sounds like you were on CNN explaining things, seriously this expert sounds like you!

See: http://www.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/asiapcf/03/11/japan.nuclear/index.html?hpt=T1

Right now the expert is saying that this could well be as big of a disaster as TMI but he was not expecting it to be a meltdown like Chernobyl but said lack of power and cooling water is what is driving this.
Link Posted: 3/11/2011 6:32:32 PM EST
Originally Posted By Quarterbore:
JacobBoyd - sounds like you were on CNN explaining things, seriously this expert sounds like you!

See: http://www.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/asiapcf/03/11/japan.nuclear/index.html?hpt=T1

Right now the expert is saying that this could well be as big of a disaster as TMI but he was not expecting it to be a meltdown like Chernobyl but said lack of power and cooling water is what is driving this.


TMI wasn't a disaster as far as contamination release to the public is concerned. It was a disaster to the flow of correct information to the public by educated sources.
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