Ok, I notice there is always talk in here about SHTF scenarios and every seems to have their own pet theory. So, if the S were actually to HTF, when do you project it will happen, and what will be the cause?  Im not talking about losing power for three days because a blizzard ripped through either...I'm talking about life altering events ( even if only temporary) type of SHTF.

Question 2:  are you ready for it––whatever it may be?

CoC #1––"(a) Profanity is not allowed in the subject line of threads." Title edited.  ––Feral

In before the title change!

Is that a no-no?   My bad.

In before everybody starts posting "in"

In...

Who knows?. SHTF could be global economic failure followed by rioting and looting. It could be shit dropping from the sky and burning stuff up followed by rioting and looting. Whatever it is will likely be followed by rioting and looting. It's how things play out. Your football team wins the superbowl followed by rioting and looting. I no longer see it as haves and have nots. I see it as the prepared and those who want what you've worked hard for. It can take decades or days. It could happen while you sleep and are none the wiser.



Am I prepared? Never enough. I can always have more stored or loaded or stowed. I don't have large amounts of food stored but we can last a couple weeks on what we do have. Survival in most situations will be families and neighbors pulling together to get things working. The lone survivalist will make due but there won't be any gain in it. Small communities coming together can help get farms and other needed businesses working and provide for themselves and others.

Brother, let me start off by recommending you change your title to not include any cuss words.  Before you get a ban.

Second, everyone's gonna have a date based on their most likely situation.  Mine is earthquake or the end of the USA.  Or Yellowstone blowing up, but I'm close enough that it wont matter.  Ice storm causing power outage is not likely.  For Micron, EMP or pandemic was the most likely that they planned for.  I don't work for them anymore.  I'm gonna have a 50 mile hike home if I'm unlucky, or an hour bus ride if we can get one of our OLD buses working....

If I even wanna go that way.  Have support in Idaho Falls, Boise, and somewhere in Humboldt County, CA.

Where abouts in Idaho do you live? Im in eastern Idaho by Idaho Falls. Ive always wondered how many people on here live by me.

If I'm able to bug in I'm prepared to feed my wife and maybe a couple orphans (we don't have children) four about a year. If we have to hit the road we'll be in worse shape. I keep about 25,000 rounds of ammo from 22lr to 5.56 and 12ga and everything in between. We couldn't tote it all if the truck isn't running. My plan is to bury what we can't carry and get to our cabin in Hot Springs NC before the roads are closed. You don't realize how much ten thousand rounds of .40 and 5.56 weighs until you go to organize it all. I can filter water for about five years. I plan on only taking care of my wife and I but I know my wife, and she will not turn away a child so I have had to add that to my equation.

Ammon, I work shift at the site.

Fantastic. I live in Rigby but am out of state for another month for work. Cant wait to come back to cold weather.

I am ready for, it will suck but we will not starve for a couple years, not TEOTWAWKI.  I am more prepared that anyone I personally know X100 though.


For example;  The last 2 homes I worked with oxygen dependent children.

House A.. No generator and no plan.

House B.  New generator and not even a gas can just about equal A.


I quit trying to educate not from my paranoid SHTF side, the medical professional side because it makes me have something else to worry about.

COC #1 Might want to read that one.

Oh,and "IN"

Change the title man.

in before ......

It's already happening....slow motion train wreck....right before our eyes....

"Life altering events" does not necessarily mean headline news.  Job loss, loss of dwelling due to fire, water, storm, catastrophic health issue, etc.  A broke bank account and a healthy ammo fort is not the optimal plan.

Read Go-Go Girls of the Apocalypse.  It's a great book of satire and dark humor following the SHTF.  Accidentally or prophetically the author I believe nailed how it all start's.



Edited for post surgical pain meds.

I don't know the date or how I will get in a vehicle accident, but I still have insurance .  I understand what you're asking, but I think it's the wrong question.  

I've done a "risk management matrix" for things that may impact my family, and that included things like job loss, economic crunch, fire, bad storms - all the way to Red Dawn and space aliens.  They're plotted with likelihood and impact (priority is given to high likelihood, high impact items like hurricanes, and less is given to space aliens).  You know what I found out?  Preparing for all of these scenarios involves pretty much the same stuff - from adopting the mental state of a survivor, having diversified financial resources, keeping some food, water and other supplies, protection for you and your family, medical training and supplies, etc.  Okay, maybe you don't need a diversified financial portfolio for space aliens, but you know what I mean!  I guess what I'm trying to say is that "scenario based" preps are good, but I suspect you'll find that the exact problem and date aren't really relevant to your actions at the end of the day.

Welcome to the survival forums...

Honestly, I wasn't asking about prep specifics.  I realize that we all need water, shelter, food , ammo (tons) etc.  What I was getting at is what events people have festering in the backs of their minds that drive them to prep.  They're not going to all be the same and theyre not necessarily going to be accurate.  I know some fear economic collapse, while others fear alien invasion.   One guy even mentioned the Yellowstone cualdera.  I am just curious to see what different people from around the country are bracing for.

Thanks McNielsen !

Things that try to keep me up at night (but mostly fail):

- Unfettered governmental spending, no commitment to a national budget, and massive social programs rife with fraud and malingering
- Continued and accelerated economic decline nationally
- Global economic meltdown/reset precipitated by the Euro-mess
- Severe weather (ice storms, tornadoes, and heavy rain)
- Crime and accidents

ok so question is how SHTF starts. Answer(s) imho could be:

1. gov goes bankrupt (most likely scenario, things getting pretty shakey)
2. natural disaster (flood, earthquake, volcano)
3. man made disaster (nuke meltdown, terrorist attack, etc)
4. war with other country (china, mexico, middle east, etc)
5. pandemic (bird flu, small pox, TB, some new pathogen)

Well, with their track record of fucking up damn near EVERTYHING they touch, I'm going with #1

It will be the .gov's fault.  It shouldn't be.  We are way to resource rich to be failing so badly.

TXL

Got it.  The three gents above hit my list pretty well.  Financial woes (whether global, domestic, local or even personal - such a job loss or unexpected repair) are the most likely thing IMHO.  Next on my list are accident or illness, natural disaster, and personal violence (mugging, carjacking, theft).  True SHTF typically happens once a generation or two (war, famine, etc.), although we're a little overdue for something big it seems....

By the way - welcome to the forum!

Welcome to the SF





In





on two











ETA

NefariousX, if you stay involved with the SF for a while you will get to know that those of us that have been survivalists for more than say 3 years no longer make preparations as specifically as you want.  Many of my plans and preparations will do the job I need done no matter what the trigger event might be.



For example I would bug my family out for a chemical spill the same as a forest fire.  Week before last I had to initiate step one of the BO drill because of forest fire.



Economic meltdown happens when income is lost.  Doesn't matter to my kids if it was the boss hated me, the company got sold and closed, or the world economy just stopped.  Now of the three causes I mentioned I anticipate that you will personally go through the first 2.  T stop the world economy takes a bit more doing, so is therefore much less likely.  What can I do about the possibility of the world economy stopping...I can do the same thing I would do to prepare for being out of work.
 

#1 has already happened.

They just haven't admitted it yet.

The first time I go to buy something from a private individual and he won't take green money.  That will be the final straw for me.  Of course when I see more than one major city burning like London did that might be a good clue as well.

I run the theory that many emergency management organizations do - broadly classify events and have generic responses. Death occurs from the details - don't get so complicated that the response is not manageable.

Basically - I use 2 categories of events - Disruptive and Violent

Disruptive can be anything from severe weather, power outage, to political crisis, economic collapse, etc

Violent is anything that directly and seriously threatens life and limb - this includes disruptive events with harmful aspects. Examples include fire, famine, riots, warfare, etc

I plan to survive in place if the event is purely disruptive, it is the most effective use of labor and energy.

IF (and a big if) an event will or has resulted in violence beyond "normal" and chance occurrences (IE, becomes widespread), then an evac is in order.


How have I planned? Just the basics, and without any reliance on electricity beyond starting my BOV.

Food/Water, Fuel, Weapons and Clothing/Shelter - and the means/knowledge to produce each on a long term basis if needed. Will it be needed? Nah, I prepare out of concern for my children - not because of some "well developed" theory of how we will fall as a people. I really don't think it will occur, but I love my kids too much to allow for their slow death if SHTF.

for a serious reply, losing a career or even a solid job is all it takes for most people to go into survival mode.

When. There are a couple of senarios where it is inevitable.

#1  Global Pandemic

#2 When energy resources become more expensive and more rare.

Anything else can happen though.   Global War etc..

We ARE the frogs in the water, and the temp is pretty close to boiling. Frog soup, here we come, at least for most of those in the country. It'll start out as an "economic emergency" that results in rioting in the street.....Wait, this is already happening in England, and Stephen Lerner of SEIU is calling for more of the same over here. OK, then it'll be endless tiny steps, "nudging" us into an endless bureaucratic jungle of regulations on everything we do. Nope, doing that one too (see Cass Sunstein, our regulatory czar.) Might be that the BAFTE runs amok over our rights in an attempt to create a crisis, to further restrict firearms ownership? Been there, doin' that. (See Operation Fast and Furious).

You cannot focus entirely on what kind of crisis you think is going to hit us. You need to go out and get informed, get involved, get off your butts so that the most likely crisis to hit us, an economic one, can be averted. Pay some attention to what the man behind the curtain (BHO) and his buddies have been saying that the mainstream media won't tell you about. Our government is run by 60's radicals and very few seem to get it.  Do your homework. We are headed towards a hard left progressive socialism and nobody seems to get it.

Yeah, I'm talking politics here instead of on some political forum 'cause I prep too. You cannot seperate prepping from our current political situation, and the best way to prep is to work at getting this country back to what it once was. There, RANT OVER! Let the flames begin!

"You cannot focus entirely on what kind of crisis you think is going to hit us. You need to go out and get informed, get involved, get off your butts so that the most likely crisis to hit us, an economic one, can be averted. Pay some attention to what the man behind the curtain (BHO) and his buddies have been saying that the mainstream media won't tell you about."


But I can't.

I don't have time.

I have to clean my gunz and braid some paracord so I can wear my bracelet to the Big Game tomorrow.

So there.

For me it is purely based on economic reasons.  I'm not going to sit here and pretend I have all the answers, but I truly believe our current economic system cannot be sustained for much longer.  Our entire economy is based upon growth & debt.  When the debt gets too large, and we are nearly there, the entire system will collapse under it's own weight.  Had this happened 60 years ago it wouldn't be so problematic, but due to the very nature of our economy (with the help from petrol) the world population is extremely inflated which will cause mass starvation.  Once this happens, it will take 30-40 years for civilization to fully recover and history will look at the 20th/early 21st as a time of great arrogance, greed & waste.

So what will be the trigger?  I'm not a fortune teller or prophet, but it'll probably start in southern Europe.  If Greece defaults, the entire system may be able to cope with it.  However, Italy could be hit the hardest by a Greek default and if Italy is then forced to default, it'll be Spain and France that shortly follow and from there it's over for Europe.  Once Europe drops, the rest of us will follow.

Can I survive?  Sure.  I can hunt, trap, raise livestock and grow food; all on land that is currently owned by my family.  Will I want to survive?  I suppose that depends on how bad it gets, but right now I really do want to survive.  If it gets to the point that cannibalism and/or slavery is widespread amongst survivors, I don't think I'd want to be a part of that world.


So am I a whackjob?  I don't think so but then again, the truly crazy never think they are crazy.

No, you're not a whack job or crazy. What is crazy is that whenever I have tried to wake up the sleeping forum members with some truth about what is really happening to this country, easily verified with a little homework, the thread just dies. I'm not talking black helicopters, FEMA camps, 9-11 truthers, or even Big Foot and the Loch Ness Monster here. Just what the progressive left is doing to our country and to the world (Look up Mutually Assured Economic destruction). Do you think those were actors trying to burn London to the ground? Maybe all the footage from Greece is just some high school play? That the camped-out wack-jobs on Wall Street are really just a couple of Boy Scout troops with a crazy scout leader? BHO's buddies are calling for us to have our own Tahrir Square right here in the good old US of A.

With some exceptions, I believe most of the folks here, on this thread anyway, long to play Survival: The Game because it allows you to justify owning more AR's than you can possibly shoot, and stockpile more and more ammo, just so you can say " Lookee here! Mine's bigger than yours!"  And Survival: The Game is nowhere near as fun if the threat is very real. (I used to play that game too.) But food is nowhere near as fun as showing off the $1500.00 "truck gun" you just bought. (Who the hell leaves a $1500.00 AR in their vehicle ALL the time?) But that food and other stuff just doesn't brag as well. Continue playing the game or WAKE THE HELL UP! Or just let the thread die and go on to the next "Whaddya' think the SHTF will be" thread.

Well, while I think you're being fairly insulting to a group of people that works very hard to share practical ideas amongst each other, there's probably a reason for some of what you observe.  

First - your claim about an obsession with toys around here.  A quick scan of the first page of the survival forum right now yields 8 topics about food, numerous topics about water filtration, survival ideas, etc., and a whopping TWO posts about firearms in any sense.  In spite of the fact this is a firearms community, I would call that pretty standard around here.  I'm not sure where you got all wound up about an obsession with firearms around here (and I won't even comment about the irony of going to a firearms board and being frustrated by the fact people talk about firearms ), but I think it's a little misplaced here.  

Second - your anger about the group here not obsessing about world events.  I hate to say it, but what do you want someone to do about the eurozone blowing up?  Yeah - we all know it's happening.  I read the analyst information every morning.  I read the nonsense coming from our current adminstration - from the test run "we should suspend elections" in NC yesterday to Fast and Furious, QE3, massive increase of class warfare/marxism/socialism, devaluation of the dollar, dependence on petroleum coupled with a decline in approvals for domestic drilling, stagnation and true unemployment, increased regulation on all fronts, inflation, fraud within banks, stock market and business..... (I could go on all day here)  We get it.  What do we do about it?  We vote, we write letters - sure.  In the meantime, I'm not going to lose what "normal" time we have left wringing my hands and losing sleep over it.  A good preparation plan (as has been pointed out here several times in the last few days) is somewhat agnostic about the actual event or events that impact you.  A good plan couples physical stores of food with a diverse financial plan, BOLs, practical vehicles, practical skillsets and an overall lifestyle of independence.  What can we do in the meantime?  Share ideas about food storage, water filtration, practical skillsets, BOLs and BOVs, power generation and storage, critical document storage, financial planning - you know, exactly the stuff we do here all day every day.  

Don't get me wrong, my friend - you're in good company here, and I suspect your frustration about world events is shared by the majority here.  I feel like a Roman just before the barbarians attack.  We are on the verge of some significant world events that may change our way of living.  Then again, similar threats existed in the 30's, the 40's, the 50's..... the 90's, etc. - and we made it through.  Our number may be up this time.  Who knows?  We can't solve macro problems.  We can react to them on a micro (personal and local) level, and I think that's exactly what this group does.  Just my two cents....

This pretty much says what I was trying to figure out how to type.



Preps are used for what I need them for, not what I labeled em for or what others think they are best used for.

BlackFox,
I do appreciate your reply, and yes, I'm a bit frustrated. It's not my meaning to offend (too badly, anyway) but to elicit a response, to get a dialogue going. I'm afraid that a tremor and my three fingered Turbo Hunt 'n' Peck method of typing does not lend itself to an immediate in-depth response to what you have written, but I'll try. I will comment on this line of yours: "We can't solve macro problems.  We can react to them on a micro (personal and local) level, and I think that's exactly what this group does.  Just my two cents..."  I had exactly the same sense of the problem being, as you wrote, a macro problem, one too big for me alone to handle.  What I'm trying to do is to just jar loose a person or two from that mindset and just get the word out there of what is going on. Doesn't have to be just a congress critter, but a neighbor, a friend, an aquaintance who appears to be of the right mindset. Of course in some places, like Texas, kindred souls are easier to meet than in New York City.

We think in terms of opsec and keep to ourselves the fact that we do prep. But as long as we're careful we don't have to give up on opsec, while still alerting others to the fact that the mainstream media is not telling the truth. Once people get this, then they will start seeing the need to prep (though even that is not the main focus). My brother wouldn't even believe some of the simplest parts of this until he spoke with a high school buddy who'd been high up in Fed law enforcement. The point is that we should make others aware of what is behind our need to be prepared. And the more people aware of things, the less likely the .gov and the progressive movement, here and abroad, is to get away with it.

You also wrote "Then again, similar threats existed in the 30's, the 40's, the 50's..... the 90's, etc. - and we made it through." True, but computers have made the world smaller since then. We have to react much quicker now, or better yet to be proactive. Blackfox, you DO know what I'm talking about, but how many here can tell us what QE3 is without looking it up (and it's NOT a big ship!) and what the effects will be? It'd be nice if we could occasionally get into this kind of stuff as well. And that's why I purposely made my last post imflammatory, to get a response and maybe get some peole to start asking "What the heck is going on?" I just don't see that prepping and awareness of the national and international scene are totally separate. Think of it as macro situational awareness. I'm not sure where the threshhold is for getting kicked off the forum is, and I'm sure I've passed well into the Pariah Zone, but I thought it important enough to ruffle a few bunch of feathers to try and get the message out, even at the risk of getting stoned to death (Sharia style).

All good, Falbert1!  I don't think you've crossed any lines, so don't lose sleep.  I don't agree with what you first said, but that's part of being part of the family here and learning from each other.

I can't speak for anyone else here, but I certainly am a missionary for our mindset - just short of being "that guy."  Talking about it here amongst ourselves is kind of pointless to some extent, but your point is taken.  Opsec is important, but not at the expense of losing the game.  Heck, some of us might belive so strongly in what you're getting at that we'll spend our time writing stories that reach the masses (see the survival fiction forum) or even making movies that highlight these concepts for the average person.  I suspect the crew here does more of that than most realize - we just don't brag about it here.  

The advent of the nuclear weapon in communist hands, aircraft and tanks in WW1, biological weapons, globalization of the economy, moving off the gold standard, the socialist movement in the US - these are all significant threats to our way of life in past decades.  Just-in-time delivery, reliance upon computers - perhaps those are this decades achilles heel.  I suspect we're about to pay for the financial mistakes of decades past, and the result is going to be a more Marxist US - but it's hard to say.  

By the way, I think one of the reasons there's not a lot of noise about what you're describing here is that a lot of that is done elsewhere.  Check out the You haven't seen bad yet but it's coming thread in general discussion.  My guess is that the survival forum itself tries to stick to the more "practical" practice rather than the political side of things to come.

Got the meds refilled, so I should good to go for awhile. Sometimes ya' just gotta' SCREAM, know what I mean? BTW, haven't there been numerous warnings about GD, sort of a "Abandon all hope, ye who enter here" type of thing? That bottle of pills is only going to go so far.....Anyway, thanks Blackfox.

Everyone has listed a valid point of whats to come.

when; IMO.... Soon.

Don't need to go out and run up the credit card.


If you read these forums you are 100 x's ahead of the ave Amerikan

+ 100. #1  is the must likely scenario !  

Like this but with china replacing NK

oh yes.
GD '2'

could be anything from whatever natural disaster your region of the country gets, to a house fire, to long term, slow economic slide, car accident, medical complications, etc.

sometimes it's finding out that someone you'd expected would be there for many years into the future isn't there any more and it doesn't really matter if it's a "Dear John" letter, or that phone call from the state troopers or the sheriff that tells you they're gone.

plan for the most likely things, start with the basics and keep at it and eventually you'll have the skills, experience and resources to wade thru almost anything.

it won't.  

i read it in GD:
http://www.ar15.com/forums/t_1_5/1235942_How_much_time_has_to_pass_before_Doom_and_Gloomers_admit_there_will_be_no_collapse___.html


ar-jedi

OMG! So that's what GD looks like! One page of that link was all I can handle just now. Maybe more later with a large can of BS repellent.....Naw, one page was enough! I apologize to all for thinking some were asleep. I've always stuck to the survival forum and I guess I just got spoiled. There's a bunch of ostriches over there! Now I know I'm home.