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Posted: 11/20/2008 8:46:40 PM EDT
Thu Nov 20, 2008 6:42pm EST
By Carey Gillam

KANSAS CITY, Missouri (Reuters) - People in a vast seismic zone in the southern and midwestern United States would face catastrophic damage if a major earthquake struck there and should ensure that builders keep that risk in mind, a government report said on Thursday.

The Federal Emergency Management Agency said if earthquakes strike in what geologists define as the New Madrid Seismic Zone, they would cause "the highest economic losses due to a natural disaster in the United States."

FEMA predicted a large earthquake would cause "widespread and catastrophic physical damage" across Alabama, Arkansas, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Mississippi, Missouri and Tennessee –– home to some 44 million people.

Tennessee is likely to be hardest hit, according to the study that sought to gauge the impact of a 7.7 magnitude earthquake in order to guide the government's response.
In Tennessee alone, it forecast hundreds of collapsed bridges, tens of thousands of severely damaged buildings and a half a million households without water.

Transportation systems and hospitals would be wrecked, and police and fire departments impaired, the study said.

The zone, named for the town of New Madrid in Missouri's southeast corner, is subject to frequent mild earthquakes.

Experts have long tried to predict the likelihood of a major quake like those that struck in 1811 and 1812. These shifted the course of the Mississippi River and rang church bells on the East Coast but caused few deaths amid a sparse population.

"People who live in these areas and the people who build in these areas certainly need to take into better account that at some time there is ... expected to be a catastrophic earthquake in that area, and they'd better be prepared for it," said FEMA spokesperson Mary Margaret Walker.

(Editing by Andrew Stern and Xavier Briand)
Link Posted: 11/20/2008 8:59:08 PM EDT
After experiencing the last one a few months ago in the middle of the night, while sound asleep, and thinking a tornado was lifting the house off the foundation, I can make a prediction.

If we have an almost 8.0 quake, I'll probably shit me self

I also learned how much of a difference it makes when you are located very close to the epicenter.
Link Posted: 11/20/2008 9:14:23 PM EDT
Well my first thought when I read the article was "Government warns" from past experience is code speak for "Goverment knows and is not telling the whole story"

Link Posted: 11/20/2008 9:27:10 PM EDT
Originally Posted By JoshD:
After experiencing the last one a few months ago in the middle of the night, while sound asleep, and thinking a tornado was lifting the house off the foundation, I can make a prediction.

If we have an almost 8.0 quake, I'll probably shit me self

I also learned how much of a difference it makes when you are located very close to the epicenter.


Bah, I slept through it until my wife woke me up.
Link Posted: 11/20/2008 9:34:25 PM EDT
Originally Posted By JoshD:
After experiencing the last one a few months ago in the middle of the night, while sound asleep, and thinking a tornado was lifting the house off the foundation, I can make a prediction.

If we have an almost 8.0 quake, I'll probably shit me self

I also learned how much of a difference it makes when you are located very close to the epicenter.



That's the first time I ever had one wake me up.

I thought "they" were bustin down my doors coming to get me.


Link Posted: 11/20/2008 9:42:41 PM EDT
I am not looking forward to a big quake....I'm too close. Another new Madrid would make a mess of things for sure.
Link Posted: 11/20/2008 10:09:54 PM EDT
I'm about 50 miles from the New Madrid fault. My prep plans are focused on an earthquake.
Link Posted: 11/20/2008 10:21:50 PM EDT
Originally Posted By bob200587:
I am not looking forward to a big quake....I'm too close. Another new Madrid would make a mess of things for sure.


Hang tight you won't be the only one. Commerce nation wide will be greatly affected given the central location. St. Louis is the gateway to the bread basket.
Link Posted: 11/21/2008 12:00:04 AM EDT
The New Madrid Fault Zone defied attempts to explain why earthquakes occur there for many years. It is a long way from volcanic rifts, continental subduction zones, and slip strike zones like the California faults.

Still very intersting reading.

RS
Link Posted: 11/21/2008 12:05:42 AM EDT
All I can say is enjoy everything running smoothly during the after events of the quake. The incident management system will run smoothly until FEMA shows up, there's alot of the left hand doesn't know what the right is doing when they do arrive.
Link Posted: 11/21/2008 1:49:30 AM EDT
Bad news: I'm just inside the yellow on this map.



Good news, I'm a member of this forum and actually have preps for loss of power/utilities and shortage of food/meds/etc. I'm still working on sanitation, comms, and more power though.
Link Posted: 11/21/2008 3:22:45 AM EDT
Years ago my brother did a study and told my dad that that area will have a major quake one day. Hearing that info years ago stayed with me. When I moved to Ga and bought my first house, I went to my insurance co and told them that I wanted earthquake coverage. I really expected everyone in the office to laugh. But the man running the office looked at me and said, "Right now there are only 3 homes in this county covered for that. My daughter's, mine and now yours."
Link Posted: 11/21/2008 3:30:40 AM EDT
dam and we just moved out of CA. now this. carp u can never win
Link Posted: 11/21/2008 3:38:46 AM EDT
Originally Posted By Wombat_SCSO:
Bad news: I'm just inside the yellow on this map.

http://www.scsv.nevada.edu/~susanb/jblog/archives/new_madrid.gif

Good news, I'm a member of this forum and actually have preps for loss of power/utilities and shortage of food/meds/etc. I'm still working on sanitation, comms, and more power though.


i'm just outside of the yellow on that map. but if it were a large earthquake it could easily disrupt numerous east-west rail lines and damage many bridges going over the mississippi. i would imagine there are gas lines that cross through that area as well.
Link Posted: 11/21/2008 4:41:31 AM EDT
What does the yellow area on the map indicate?

Felt? Damage?
Link Posted: 11/21/2008 5:55:40 AM EDT
red is structural damage, yellow is felt
Link Posted: 11/21/2008 6:08:26 AM EDT
Originally Posted By JoshD:
After experiencing the last one a few months ago in the middle of the night, while sound asleep, and thinking a tornado was lifting the house off the foundation, I can make a prediction.

If we have an almost 8.0 quake, I'll probably shit me self

I also learned how much of a difference it makes when you are located very close to the epicenter.


I live hundreds of miles from the epicenter of the recent Illinos quake. I felt it and I am glad I have earthquake insurance on my home.

Link Posted: 11/21/2008 6:41:23 AM EDT
All you guys living in the New Madrid seismic zone.....here's a bit of cheerful news. The New Madrid has an apparent historical event timeline of approximately 200-250 years. The last major quake was 1811-1812. Do the math!!!!! Oh, and that one was an 8.0 Richter followed by months of aftershocks ranging from 4.3 to 7.7. These actually caused as much or more loss of life and property than the initial quake! Glad I live in a place where all we have to worry about is hurricanes and asteroid-produced tsunamis. Have a nice day!!
Link Posted: 11/21/2008 6:44:18 AM EDT
There was a show on TV about this last night. The showed hoe the government is trying to retrofit some of the bridges to help them survive but most bridges, double deck highways, buildings, etc would not survive a major quake in this region.

They showed evidence that showed major quakes hit the region about every 500-years and it has been 200-years since that last big one. Kinda hard to build to resist something that might not happen for 300-years but hard not to when it could happen tomorrow too.
Link Posted: 11/21/2008 7:00:04 AM EDT
I also prep for quakes,and here in St Louis its amazing how many people are ill prepared to deal with it, corporate types who wont be able to get home due to improper footwear and trying to get across the multitude of bridges, there is only ONE road in the St louis area for evac that does NOT cross a body of water....and it was found by the Corps Of Discovery...and still in use.....Manchester Rd....and most people have no idea....in our GHB's both my wife and I have small inflatables for ferrying should the bridges fail for even foot traffic....damn I hope its summer when they do.....
Link Posted: 11/21/2008 7:01:18 AM EDT
Originally Posted By Taxed2Death:
All you guys living in the New Madrid seismic zone.....here's a bit of cheerful news. The New Madrid has an apparent historical event timeline of approximately 200-250 years. The last major quake was 1811-1812. Do the math!!!!! Oh, and that one was an 8.0 Richter followed by months of aftershocks ranging from 4.3 to 7.7. These actually caused as much or more loss of life and property than the initial quake! Glad I live in a place where all we have to worry about is hurricanes and asteroid-produced tsunamis. Have a nice day!!


T2D how many data points support that 200-250 years stat?
Link Posted: 11/21/2008 7:08:56 AM EDT
Originally Posted By TVLL62CAL:
I also prep for quakes,and here in St Louis its amazing how many people are ill prepared to deal with it, corporate types who wont be able to get home due to improper footwear and trying to get across the multitude of bridges, there is only ONE road in the St louis area for evac that does NOT cross a body of water....and it was found by the Corps Of Discovery...and still in use.....Manchester Rd....and most people have no idea....in our GHB's both my wife and I have small inflatables for ferrying should the bridges fail for even foot traffic....damn I hope its summer when they do.....




Impressive!
Link Posted: 11/21/2008 7:11:06 AM EDT
Originally Posted By Wombat_SCSO:
Bad news: I'm just inside the yellow on this map.

http://www.scsv.nevada.edu/~susanb/jblog/archives/new_madrid.gif

Good news, I'm a member of this forum and actually have preps for loss of power/utilities and shortage of food/meds/etc. I'm still working on sanitation, comms, and more power though.


People shouldn't live where there could be earthquakes, or hurricanes, or fires, or tornadoes, or flooding rivers, or snowstorms, or tsuamis, or terrorist attacks.
Link Posted: 11/21/2008 7:22:21 AM EDT
Originally Posted By Group9:
Originally Posted By Wombat_SCSO:
Bad news: I'm just inside the yellow on this map.

http://www.scsv.nevada.edu/~susanb/jblog/archives/new_madrid.gif

Good news, I'm a member of this forum and actually have preps for loss of power/utilities and shortage of food/meds/etc. I'm still working on sanitation, comms, and more power though.


People shouldn't live where there could be earthquakes, or hurricanes, or fires, or tornadoes, or flooding rivers, or snowstorms, or tsuamis, or terrorist attacks.



I was unaware that people could live on the moon.
Link Posted: 11/21/2008 7:59:46 AM EDT
Link Posted: 11/21/2008 8:01:48 AM EDT
Link Posted: 11/21/2008 8:07:59 AM EDT
Originally Posted By Taxed2Death:
The New Madrid has an apparent historical event timeline of approximately 200-250 years. The last major quake was 1811-1812. Do the math!!!!!



Ayyy! The Mayans were right! 2012!!!
Link Posted: 11/21/2008 8:36:25 AM EDT
Originally Posted By Noah120:
Originally Posted By TVLL62CAL:
I also prep for quakes,and here in St Louis its amazing how many people are ill prepared to deal with it, corporate types who wont be able to get home due to improper footwear and trying to get across the multitude of bridges, there is only ONE road in the St louis area for evac that does NOT cross a body of water....and it was found by the Corps Of Discovery...and still in use.....Manchester Rd....and most people have no idea....in our GHB's both my wife and I have small inflatables for ferrying should the bridges fail for even foot traffic....damn I hope its summer when they do.....




Impressive!


thanks dude...good to know I wasnt crazy for including those..they only have to last for a day or so....
Link Posted: 11/21/2008 8:50:13 AM EDT
[Last Edit: 11/21/2008 10:41:28 AM EDT by Sarah]
So now that the earthquake threat is closer to home for a lot more people, it's time to learn from your west coast brothers and take appropriate steps.

First of all, during a quake, DUCK, COVER and HOLD ON. Inform the women and children that no matter what information they're getting from forwarded e-mails or in school about the "triangle of life" and that running outside or getting in a doorway is safe, it is NOT. Find something solid like a table or desk, get under it, protect your head and hold on until shaking stops. If in bed, stay in bed. When the immediate danger has passed, assess, equip and act. Once you have secured yourself, you can proceed with evacuation plans as appropriate.

Now, look around your house. Since you're most vulnerable when you're sleeping, let's start in the bedroom first.

1. Look at what's over your bed. The womenfolk love to cover headboards and shelves with romantic candles and other stuff that will fall on your head when the ground starts to move. The heaviest thing that should be above your head are stuffed animals. Pictures behind glass and/or in heavy frames should not be above the bed. Move them to somewhere they won't injure or kill you if they fall on your head in the middle of the night. Tell her WHY you're moving them.

2. Large pictures on the wall are an extreme hazard if they're behind glass. Exchange the glass for plexiglass, and make sure they're on the wall with seismic hooks that keep them from falling. Even without falling, pictures that bang against the wall will shatter glass and cause dangerous debris.

3. Furniture moves when the ground does. There are three possible movements for the earth. North-south, east-west or circular. In a north-south quake, items on those walls will fall and things on east-west walls may not. The same is true for east-west items falling (that includes the walls themselves) and the north-south staying relatively intact. In a circular quake, everything shifts, often randomly. Many people found themselves trapped behind doors that would not open because a heavy piece of furniture shifted and settled across the door. Bolt furniture to the wall, preferably to a stud.

4. Most injuries are caused by falling/flying objects and glass debris. Check all corridors, entrances and paths for hazards. This is especially important in children's rooms. Make sure children have a bag under the bed or hanging on a bedpost with a flashlight, family radio and shoes. Tell them to stay put and get under the covers. You WILL come for them - they are not to leave their rooms. However, they need to know escape routes in case of fire.

5. Kitchens are dangerous. Most people store breakables like glassware and dishes on upper cabinet shelves. These will all end up broken on the floor along with the entire contents of your pantry and most of the stuff from your refrigerator. It's a sticky, wet, glassy, smelly mess and will need to be dealt with very quickly in your clean-up plans. Keep a good barn shovel, contractor-weight trash bags and tall waterproof work boots near the kitchen for this purpose.

6. Only turn off gas if you smell gas. Check after each aftershock. Know how to shut off your gas and get a tool for that purpose. Keep it on a hook behind the nearest door that leads to the gas main, or somewhere that you can get to it safely like in the dog's house.

7. During seismic events, houses tend to shift off their foundations, walls buckle and crack and garages collapse. One of the most commonly damaged structures however, are fireplace chimneys. They will break off at the roof line and tumble down. If you're lucky, they'll fall outside. Otherwise, they're coming through the roof - pardon the expression - like a ton of bricks. Ask a contractor about how to shore up a tall brick fireplace or install guy-lines to keep it from falling into your living room.

8. Things on shelves, books, televisions, plants, etc. will most likely fall. Secure these items as best you can. Things on shelves that rarely get moved (curios and collectibles, keepsakes and knickknacks) can be held down with museum wax. Books can be kept in place with bungee cords attached horizontally across shelves. Televisions can be anchored with straps that keep them attached to the wall. Plants can be placed on non-skid mats, but watch out for hanging plants because they can swing and break windows.

9. Door frames can get torqued, jamming doors closed. Have a crowbar in your quick-grab kit. A basic earthquake 1-hour quick-grab kit should have items such as: shoes with good soles, a hardhat with a headlamp, heavy work gloves, a crowbar, a small fire extinguisher, a dust mask, a FRS/GMRS radio (all family member's kits should have these), a spare pair of prescription glasses if you wear them, a spare flashlight and replacement batteries. This is enough supplies to find, rescue and get your family to safety. Things move or get buried under stuff during an earthquake. Put your kit where you can access it even if everything else has fallen on it.

10. Fire is a real danger during a seismic event. Make sure that you have an evacuation drill that covers the after-a-quake scenario. Bolt fire extinguishers to walls in strategic places. Know how to use them; take the family to your local fire station and they'll be happy to demonstrate. Have adults go through the local free CERT training. Drill evacuation with the kids and make sure any guests know the plan as well.

Earthquakes are noisy, violent and very frightening. Time slows down and you wonder how long it's going to go on. You hear things falling and breaking. You may hear dogs howling, neighbors screaming. This is the time that YOU need to keep your head. Initiate your 60-second evacuation plan as soon as it is safe to do so. Your safety comes first - don't become a victim. You can't save anyone if you're severely injured because you panicked.

Plan to take care of your immediate family for at least four to seven days depending on the severity of the damage to the local infrastructure. Water is life - have plenty of it, and break up your supply so that even if the garage collapses, it won't have buried your entire water supply. Consider the following:

Can we stay warm and sheltered?
Will we be able to cook and eat?
Will we have enough water?
Will we be able to get information?
Will we be able to deal with minor medical needs?
Do I have contingency plans for sanitation?
Do I have the supplies necessary to clean up hazardous debris?
Do I have the equipment necessary to defend my home and family?

Then think a little further out:
How prepared might my neighbors be?
What supplies am I willing to give/lend/barter?
Do I have the facilities to shelter, feed or perform medical services for neighbors? To what extent?
Do I have the resources to provide communication (amateur radio, etc.)?

If my home in uninhabitable, and the roads are inaccessible, what are my contingency plans?

Just for fun, try this game: Beat the Quake Game
Link Posted: 11/21/2008 9:35:26 AM EDT
Originally Posted By georgiarebel6165:
Well my first thought when I read the article was "Government warns" from past experience is code speak for "Goverment knows and is not telling the whole story"



And how exactly do you prepare for an Earthquake?

Link Posted: 11/21/2008 10:37:54 AM EDT
Originally Posted By The_Beer_Slayer:
FEMA predicted a large earthquake would cause "widespread and catastrophic physical damage" across Alabama, Arkansas, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Mississippi, Missouri and Tennessee –– home to some 44 million people


shaking up all those trailers would cause what... 50 bucks worth of damage?


Tree fitty at most!

I thought we had to watch out for the super volcano in Yosemite????
Link Posted: 11/21/2008 11:23:38 AM EDT
There was an earthquake in the Dallas Texas area last month. I don't ever remember in my 53yrs in Texas of an earthquake here[>:/]
Link Posted: 11/21/2008 11:46:56 AM EDT
Everytime we are traveling to KY to visit and cross the over into Tenn from Mo. I'm praying NOT NOW, NOT NOW. That would be one bad way to go. Most of my family is in Western KY and would really be in bad shape. If both the dams (KY and Barkley) should go it would not be pretty along with all the other catastrophic damage. If it happens within this next four years I think we all know that the SHTHTF.
Link Posted: 11/21/2008 12:09:11 PM EDT
More ammo to talk the wife to buy more preps! If anyone has the link to this it would help thanks?
Link Posted: 11/21/2008 12:12:50 PM EDT
Originally Posted By Cacinok:

T2D how many data points support that 200-250 years stat?



One report out of the University of Missouri-Rolla shows data points back to 550AD that agree with this timeline. Another by the Iowa DNR shows the period between to be from 175 to 700 years, but it leans toward the shorter interval and cites the inexact science for predictions to support the "...to as long as 700 years.". An article in the Virtual Times from back in the late '90s list the probability of a 6.0 or greater quake as 50% by 2000 and 90% by 2040, and references several geological studies to support their claim. Another study by the University of Illinois, dated June 12, 2006 states that there is a 90% probability of a 6.0-7.0 quake within the next 50 years.

There are more that I have run across, but these were the only ones I saved. The only reason I even had these references is because my son had to do a report on it a while back. Mostly I just remember thinking "HOLY SHIT" when so many of the references for the paper my son was writing pointed at a 200-250 or so interval. I always knew that the New Madrid had serious potential for damage, but since I never intend to live along it, I had never researched the timing for the NEXT big quake. It kind of stuck out to me. But hell, they've been promising that California was going to fall into the ocean for years now, and it's still here.....damn it!
Link Posted: 11/21/2008 3:45:21 PM EDT
There is a book called The Rift. It discuss a New Madrid quake. It is fiction but it is a really good read. It brings up water contamination caused by all the fuel and chemical storage stuff busting open, the flooding from dam breaks, and the Army Corp. of Engineers.

I live in Texas. The only ground shaking I have ever felt was when a gas line outside Brenham TX exploded. It was strange feeling the earth move. I do not think I could handle living in a earthquake zone.
Link Posted: 11/21/2008 4:51:12 PM EDT
A 200-250-year average is kind of misleading, though. That doesn't mean you won't see an earthquake for 200-250 years after the last one. You could have one tomorrow, then another the next day. If it went 400-500 years without another one, that would still be in the predicted range.
Many people seem to trust those predictions as guarantees they're safe for a while. Here in the Ozarks I hear people refer to 100-year floods or something like that, when they get surprised by flooding after some heavy rain. They often sound like they feel betrayed when a "100-year flood" comes sooner than predicted.
Link Posted: 11/21/2008 4:55:52 PM EDT
http://www.amazon.com/8-4-Peter-Hernon/dp/0399144005
Link Posted: 11/21/2008 6:39:26 PM EDT
Anyone have any links about this? I live in southern IL and have not heard anything about this we did feel that quake a few months back but I'd like to get more information on this.
Link Posted: 11/22/2008 12:12:54 AM EDT
dec 12 08 west coast conus earthquakes and tidal waves predicted

http://www.syzygyjob.com/

Link Posted: 11/22/2008 4:13:26 AM EDT
Florida gets them too.

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/regional/states/?region=Florida
Link Posted: 11/22/2008 5:04:29 AM EDT
Peparing for quakes has been going on for ever in St. Louis.

I've been in LE for 22 years; first disaster scenario training we had? Earthquake. We just did a major multi-jurisdictional drill recently to test interoperability of our communications.

While I don't particpate in planning for TEOTWAWKI, I find it prudent to prepare for natural disasters that we have experienced or seen in the past.

If my agency and city take it seriously enough, and every other one I have worked for since entering the biz, then I figure it probably would serve me well to learn a little...

And yes, I have the earthquake insurance on my home as well; mortgage company required it at the time. And thats in St. Louis...

Link Posted: 11/22/2008 9:26:53 AM EDT
George Ure site www.urbansurvival.com has been talking about a big one come December. Here is a link to another site discussing it: http://www.almanac.com/forum/read.php?9,269850,269850 .

Myself living by Cape Girardeau Missouri will be in the thick of it if it hits. I have stored food and water and placed supplies that won't freeze (ie 4 season tent etc)in my attic with the thought if the house collapses we can get to the attic. Have a ax buried in my yard to get through the roof. But not going to worry since I have prepared as best as we can.
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