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Posted: 11/19/2008 11:21:24 AM EDT
Or the Current Depression, depending on your point of view.

http://www.boston.com/bostonglobe/ideas/articles/2008/11/16/depression_2009_what_would_it_look_like/

Thoughts?
Link Posted: 11/19/2008 11:31:49 AM EDT
Originally Posted By Cymro:
Or the Current Depression, depending on your point of view.

http://www.boston.com/bostonglobe/ideas/articles/2008/11/16/depression_2009_what_would_it_look_like/

Thoughts?


Link Posted: 11/19/2008 11:50:19 AM EDT
With online banking, it would even be possible to have a bank run in which no one leaves the comfort of their home


That already happened to a couple banks. There was a "silent bankrun" article or two after IndyMac failed.

And it might go well beyond just growing your own tomatoes: early last month, the English bookstore chain Waterstone's reported a 200 percent increase in the sales of books on keeping chickens.


That's an interesting indicator.
Link Posted: 11/19/2008 12:01:57 PM EDT
if we have another depression....things will get messy....very very messy. Guess I'm a doom and gloomer. Though I feel that my doom and gloom thoughts about it are pretty well founded. hungry people do desperate things, desperate things are often immoral things, immoral things are often illegal things....follow my logic?

In a nutshell, those zombie movies that we all like with hoards of zombies wanting to snack on your medulla oblongata. Replace the zombies with desperate hungry people, and instead of some brain food they'll be after your food.

It's sad how many people think that meat and produce comes from the supermarket . I know a person who swore up and down that the supermarket produces the food we eat and that they'll always have stuff there. They don't realize that steak = beef = cow let alone what part of the cow it comes from.

.....idiots......

maybe a 2nd depression would be a good pull your head out of your ass wake-up call for people
Link Posted: 11/19/2008 12:03:57 PM EDT
Originally Posted By Mal_means_bad:
With online banking, it would even be possible to have a bank run in which no one leaves the comfort of their home


That already happened to a couple banks. There was a "silent bankrun" article or two after IndyMac failed.

And it might go well beyond just growing your own tomatoes: early last month, the English bookstore chain Waterstone's reported a 200 percent increase in the sales of books on keeping chickens.


That's an interesting indicator.



Of course, it could mean that they sold six books on raising chickens instead of two.....
Link Posted: 11/19/2008 12:07:21 PM EDT
Originally Posted By criley:
Originally Posted By Mal_means_bad:
With online banking, it would even be possible to have a bank run in which no one leaves the comfort of their home


That already happened to a couple banks. There was a "silent bankrun" article or two after IndyMac failed.

And it might go well beyond just growing your own tomatoes: early last month, the English bookstore chain Waterstone's reported a 200 percent increase in the sales of books on keeping chickens.


That's an interesting indicator.



Of course, it could mean that they sold six books on raising chickens instead of two.....


thats a good point.
Link Posted: 11/19/2008 12:07:58 PM EDT
Link Posted: 11/19/2008 12:10:30 PM EDT
UPDATE>>>>> UPS TRACKING CONFIRMS DELIVERY OF YET ANOTHER 50# BAG OF WHEAT THIS FRIDAY FROM HONEYVILLE GRAIN.>>>>That is all>>>>>
MOLON LABE!!
Link Posted: 11/19/2008 1:18:44 PM EDT
[Last Edit: 11/19/2008 1:18:58 PM EDT by Cacinok]
if you are prepared, you shall not fear.

my take home message from the article is that during a "depression" people won't be able to afford what they couldn't really afford in the first place, prior to the "depression", but bought any way. isn't this at least partially responsible for the current financial problems we're having.



Link Posted: 11/19/2008 1:33:04 PM EDT
Heres my thoughts:

I'm no expert, but I think that author is kidding himself. If he thinks people that are unemployed long term will be sitting at home and watch TV he is nuts. You have to pay your property taxes and your electric bill besides your rent or mortgage to stay home and watch TV.

He also thinks the poor will be taken care of with food stamps and utility bill help. I guess he doesn't read the paper. major cities are pleading the feds for emergency bailout because they are on the verge of having to shut off services due to a lack of revenue due to the downturn. the give away programs will cease to exist because there won't be any money to fund them.

The depression will require cities and towns to reduce the police and fire personnel. the police can barely keep track of violent crime now and I would expect the 'give me free stuff' crowd to become more violent in the cities as their free stuff goes away and they get hungry. I don't think people will be standing calmly in lines for hours to get a cup of soup and a peice of bread. social unrest will be rampant.

many people rely on credit just to get by. they have already spent upwards of a year of their normal pay in advance. When the credit stops as it is beginning to, many people will loose what they haven't paid for yet to include cars, houses and electricity.

I think it will be very very ugly.

Link Posted: 11/19/2008 1:45:02 PM EDT
I guess he doesn't read the paper. major cities are pleading the feds for emergency bailout because they are on the verge of having to shut off services due to a lack of revenue due to the downturn.


I think that this is the invisible monster that is going to bite this country in the proverbial ass. Nobody talks about this, but it's very plain to see. A lot of cities - and maybe even whole states - could fo bust.

Shane
Link Posted: 11/19/2008 2:00:07 PM EDT
Nothing to fear but fear itself. If you are even 50% prepared, you will fare better than the general population.

When the shelves are empty, some people will just be screwed.

Food, cash in small bills, emergency food, arms for securing food/defending, generator for juice, wood for heat. Make it 30-60 days and by then the situation will be clarified.
Link Posted: 11/19/2008 2:18:42 PM EDT
Originally Posted By ShaneS:
I guess he doesn't read the paper. major cities are pleading the feds for emergency bailout because they are on the verge of having to shut off services due to a lack of revenue due to the downturn.


I think that this is the invisible monster that is going to bite this country in the proverbial ass. Nobody talks about this, but it's very plain to see. A lot of cities - and maybe even whole states - could fo bust.

Shane


i was thinking the same thing myself. what would happen if kalifornia didn't receive 8 billion to bail them out? how long could they practice deficit spending until lenders completely cut them off? what happens if the US' credit rating is dropped and other nations no longer will loan money to us? i do understand that many nations are inextricably tied to us and so they won't run away, at least until they are either no longer benefited from the relationship or the harm from leaving is less than or equal to the harm from staying.
Link Posted: 11/19/2008 3:04:58 PM EDT
I am more concerned with losing my job than whether or not China is foing to continue to buy T-Bills. I could probably go close to a year without buying food, but I still have to pay my mortgage. I expect things to get really ugly, just how ugly will be whether I have a job or not and can mmake my mortgage payment or not. I'm as prepared as I can be, except for that.
Link Posted: 11/19/2008 3:59:35 PM EDT
The things he describes people doing during this next (possible) 'depression' is how I normally live my life. Don't go to movies, cautious with my spending (just think before I buy), eat most meals at home... Now, I do this just cause I don't want to waste money frivolously, the money is there to spend it just goes to more useful things (like savings, mortgage, retirement, etc...)

Honestly, I think a good portion of the sheep will simply turn inwards. Parking their asses in front of the tube and living the fantasy world that comes in the picture box (Idol, Lost or Survivor will suffice).
But there will certainly be an increase in crime. Those who already do, will continue. Those who've lived on the edges of earning a legal income will cross the blurry line. And some who are put into a situation of perceived (or not) desperation will look for and take what they need.

The welfare crowd will be in for a shock. When the tap turns off, most won't understand what is happening. Some will turn to crime described above, looking to procure what they need to survive. Others will simply fail. Many will riot, but I draw a distinction. Rioting is 'criminal' but it is not a directed crime for need as I mentioned above, but rather a fight for attention trying to get the hand that feeds to turn the spigot back on. No less dangerous if you are in the wrong area at the wrong time.
Link Posted: 11/19/2008 4:18:39 PM EDT
Originally Posted By dmsmith_Sig:
The things he describes people doing during this next (possible) 'depression' is how I normally live my life. Don't go to movies, cautious with my spending (just think before I buy), eat most meals at home... Now, I do this just cause I don't want to waste money frivolously, the money is there to spend it just goes to more useful things (like savings, mortgage, retirement, etc...)

Honestly, I think a good portion of the sheep will simply turn inwards. Parking their asses in front of the tube and living the fantasy world that comes in the picture box (Idol, Lost or Survivor will suffice).
But there will certainly be an increase in crime. Those who already do, will continue. Those who've lived on the edges of earning a legal income will cross the blurry line. And some who are put into a situation of perceived (or not) desperation will look for and take what they need.

The welfare crowd will be in for a shock. When the tap turns off, most won't understand what is happening. Some will turn to crime described above, looking to procure what they need to survive. Others will simply fail. Many will riot, but I draw a distinction. Rioting is 'criminal' but it is not a directed crime for need as I mentioned above, but rather a fight for attention trying to get the hand that feeds to turn the spigot back on. No less dangerous if you are in the wrong area at the wrong time.


This about sums up my take on a serious crisis. I highlighted that paragragh becouse those will be the people that wonder what happened to their messiah and his golden promises.
When that honeymoon is over, there are going to be some pissed off, hungry people looking for some retribution.

Off Topic- Hey Cymro, that you from the Z-Squad??
Link Posted: 11/19/2008 4:23:35 PM EDT
Originally Posted By Mach:
Heres my thoughts:

I'm no expert, but I think that author is kidding himself. If he thinks people that are unemployed long term will be sitting at home and watch TV he is nuts. You have to pay your property taxes and your electric bill besides your rent or mortgage to stay home and watch TV.

He also thinks the poor will be taken care of with food stamps and utility bill help. I guess he doesn't read the paper. major cities are pleading the feds for emergency bailout because they are on the verge of having to shut off services due to a lack of revenue due to the downturn. the give away programs will cease to exist because there won't be any money to fund them.

The depression will require cities and towns to reduce the police and fire personnel. the police can barely keep track of violent crime now and I would expect the 'give me free stuff' crowd to become more violent in the cities as their free stuff goes away and they get hungry. I don't think people will be standing calmly in lines for hours to get a cup of soup and a peice of bread. social unrest will be rampant.

many people rely on credit just to get by. they have already spent upwards of a year of their normal pay in advance. When the credit stops as it is beginning to, many people will loose what they haven't paid for yet to include cars, houses and electricity.

I think it will be very very ugly.




It's funny you should mention police jobs being cut. Our liberal state governor decided to cut 24 state trooper jobs in the fiscal budget (40 or so are due to retire next year anyway). My wife is a local LEO but her job should be safe since they are already running on a bare minimum of personnel. I can see more cuts happening in necessary government functions - and not just bureaucrat positions. Last week, the US Post Office announced it would be cutting 40,000 jobs of its 350,000 ? workforce.
Link Posted: 11/19/2008 5:25:22 PM EDT
Originally Posted By J_Smith:
Originally Posted By Mach:
Last week, the US Post Office announced it would be cutting 40,000 jobs of its 350,000 ? workforce.


40k, I thought that was citibank........

Next year it will all be about job losses, we're just getting started
Link Posted: 11/19/2008 5:34:10 PM EDT
Someone told me that we were spiraling toward a depression.

In one hand was a cell phone, in the other their $5 latte. They had an iPod on their hip with the earbuds around their neck.

They didn't seem to understand when I told them they had no idea what a depression was.
Link Posted: 11/19/2008 5:40:00 PM EDT
This was over at Ticker Forums a couple days ago...

And above all, a depression circa 2009 might be a less visible and more isolating experience. With the diminishing price of televisions and the proliferation of channels, it's getting easier and easier to kill time alone, and free time is one thing a 21st-century depression would create in abundance. Instead of dusty farm families, the icon of a modern-day depression might be something as subtle as the flickering glow of millions of televisions glimpsed through living room windows, as the nation's unemployed sit at home filling their days with the cheapest form of distraction available.


What a load of horsedung.

Millions of TVs? Watching what? With rabbit ears?

How are some of these folks going to pay for cable tv, cell phones, car payments, home payments, power, phone, gas/heating oil, property taxes, food, water, medicines, gasoline, etc? On unemployment? LOL.

It's kind of hard to concentrate on watching TV when it's 50 degrees in your house because you can't afford to turn up the heat. And those flat panel tvs gobble up a lot of juice.

No, it's going to be ugly for a lot of folks.

John
Link Posted: 11/19/2008 5:49:13 PM EDT
The more I think about it, the more I think this country NEEDS to go through another depression. Most people in America need a dose of some adversity.
Link Posted: 11/19/2008 6:04:52 PM EDT
Originally Posted By Mach:
Heres my thoughts:

I'm no expert, but I think that author is kidding himself. If he thinks people that are unemployed long term will be sitting at home and watch TV he is nuts. You have to pay your property taxes and your electric bill besides your rent or mortgage to stay home and watch TV.

He also thinks the poor will be taken care of with food stamps and utility bill help. I guess he doesn't read the paper. major cities are pleading the feds for emergency bailout because they are on the verge of having to shut off services due to a lack of revenue due to the downturn. the give away programs will cease to exist because there won't be any money to fund them.

The depression will require cities and towns to reduce the police and fire personnel. the police can barely keep track of violent crime now and I would expect the 'give me free stuff' crowd to become more violent in the cities as their free stuff goes away and they get hungry. I don't think people will be standing calmly in lines for hours to get a cup of soup and a peice of bread. social unrest will be rampant.

many people rely on credit just to get by. they have already spent upwards of a year of their normal pay in advance. When the credit stops as it is beginning to, many people will loose what they haven't paid for yet to include cars, houses and electricity.

I think it will be very very ugly.



Heck I remember in the late Jimmy Carter/ early Reagan years living in Orlando, FL when things were shit and the city would turn off the city street lights around 10 pm to save on costs. And that was a recession, not a depression. Crime is waaaaay up during those times too.

Link Posted: 11/19/2008 6:22:39 PM EDT
Link Posted: 11/19/2008 6:29:29 PM EDT
that article made me think of idiocracy, but less funny.

lines at the hospitals ?

corprate schools ?

people starving and shit.

a machine that says " fuck you im eating "

Link Posted: 11/19/2008 6:39:33 PM EDT
Someone told me that we were spiraling toward a depression.

In one hand was a cell phone, in the other their $5 latte. They had an iPod on their hip with the earbuds around their neck.

They didn't seem to understand when I told them they had no idea what a depression was.

So, if I have a cell phone, and iPod and a store bought coffee, I somehow have no idea what a depression is? And you come to that conclusion how exactly...?

Look, not everyone is going to immediately revert to a '30's living standard "just in case" the world goes to shit. Don't get me wrong, I believe we're in for a world of hurt, but that doesn't mean I'm going to quit my cell plan or sell my iPod. I don't drink coffee, so that part doesn't apply to me. I'm just saying, be careful of judging a book by it's cover.
Link Posted: 11/19/2008 10:37:29 PM EDT
Bout what I expect from the Boston Globe.

Depression: sitting home, watching TV, eating fast food.

Ok...I'm taking action.

How long does this idiot live once the lights go out?

Link Posted: 11/19/2008 11:53:21 PM EDT
Originally Posted By sharkman6:
The more I think about it, the more I think this country NEEDS to go through another depression. Most people in America need a dose of some adversity.


This will weed out the TAKERS real quick.
Link Posted: 11/20/2008 2:37:55 AM EDT
Originally Posted By Mach:
Heres my thoughts:

I'm no expert, but I think that author is kidding himself. If he thinks people that are unemployed long term will be sitting at home and watch TV he is nuts. You have to pay your property taxes and your electric bill besides your rent or mortgage to stay home and watch TV.

He also thinks the poor will be taken care of with food stamps and utility bill help. I guess he doesn't read the paper. major cities are pleading the feds for emergency bailout because they are on the verge of having to shut off services due to a lack of revenue due to the downturn. the give away programs will cease to exist because there won't be any money to fund them.

The depression will require cities and towns to reduce the police and fire personnel. the police can barely keep track of violent crime now and I would expect the 'give me free stuff' crowd to become more violent in the cities as their free stuff goes away and they get hungry. I don't think people will be standing calmly in lines for hours to get a cup of soup and a peice of bread. social unrest will be rampant.many people rely on credit just to get by. they have already spent upwards of a year of their normal pay in advance. When the credit stops as it is beginning to, many people will loose what they haven't paid for yet to include cars, houses and electricity.

I think it will be very very ugly.








Maybe many years ago the soup lines would be orderly. But if it were to happen today, due to the last generation of "hand outs", I agree with Mach. Just remember Katrina. His last statement are my thoughts exactly.

Link Posted: 11/20/2008 2:47:14 AM EDT
[Last Edit: 11/20/2008 2:47:57 AM EDT by J_Smith]
Originally Posted By jj01:
Originally Posted By J_Smith:
Originally Posted By Mach:
Last week, the US Post Office announced it would be cutting 40,000 jobs of its 350,000 ? workforce.


40k, I thought that was citibank........

Next year it will all be about job losses, we're just getting started



Citibank too - that was a separate job cut. I've tried to get into the Post Office and am not really surprised they are cutting people. It's hard to compete with UPS or Fedex when Postal workers make around $20/hour (Union). Notice that the Auto makers are also all union driven. Hard to pay amazing benefits when the market just isn't there.

We're definitely in a recession but there is a lot of hysteria over a "Depression" that isn't well founded yet. Americans by and large are still largely living like Kings. People are crying because credit is drying up - not real money they are entitled too.......i.e. "earned".

In another post, someone mentioned store bought coffee, IPODs, and cell phones. While there is nothing wrong with these, they are symbols of our materialistic society. Most adults need a cell phone now (I don't have a land line). Coffee is negotiable but IPODS are just a sign of buying into all the trendy crap. FWIW - I have an older one I used to use for PT - my wife uses it now for running.

Most Americans don't realize that our "poor" in America are about equal to Western Europe's middle class. Wait till socialism really kicks in here.......


Link Posted: 11/20/2008 3:09:17 AM EDT
Link Posted: 11/20/2008 3:35:35 AM EDT
[Last Edit: 11/20/2008 3:38:38 AM EDT by jeffers_mz]
Originally Posted By Hawkeye:
Originally Posted By jeffers_mz:
Bout what I expect from the Boston Globe.

Depression: sitting home, watching TV, eating fast food.

Ok...I'm taking action.

How long does this idiot live once the lights go out?



No more than 1 week. 2 if he's just an extremely lucky guy.


Portable gennie in the living room, cherry red face?

Or holed like swiss cheese for showing light in a blacked out neighborhood?

(snapping fingers)

"One day they'll find me lying, all stretched out on my bed...

...with a handful of Pringles potato chips, and a Ding Dong by my head."

Link Posted: 11/20/2008 4:02:50 AM EDT
Link Posted: 11/20/2008 4:07:47 AM EDT
I think you are wrong if you believe Fed, State or local Government is ever going to cut off funding for welfare programs. It simply ain't going to happen. The .gov agencies don't care that they are broke, they will still keep giving it all to the "entitled" and they will continue to do so even if they have to rob YOUR retirement savings in order to give a wheelbarrow full of money to someone who didn't earn it so they can buy a loaf of bread. In this last election, 51% of the population voted that the other 49% should support them for the rest of their lives. That is what we are looking at folks and disarming the general population will be crucial to making their "hope(s)" a reality and their "change(s)" happen.

Link Posted: 11/20/2008 4:41:56 AM EDT
Originally Posted By Makarov:
I think you are wrong if you believe Fed, State or local Government is ever going to cut off funding for welfare programs. It simply ain't going to happen. The .gov agencies don't care that they are broke, they will still keep giving it all to the "entitled" and they will continue to do so even if they have to rob YOUR retirement savings in order to give a wheelbarrow full of money to someone who didn't earn it so they can buy a loaf of bread. In this last election, 51% of the population voted that the other 49% should support them for the rest of their lives. That is what we are looking at folks and disarming the general population will be crucial to making their "hope(s)" a reality and their "change(s)" happen.




This

But read the last half of my sig

Patrick
Link Posted: 11/20/2008 4:46:42 AM EDT
Originally Posted By Makarov:
I think you are wrong if you believe Fed, State or local Government is ever going to cut off funding for welfare programs. It simply ain't going to happen. The .gov agencies don't care that they are broke, they will still keep giving it all to the "entitled" and they will continue to do so even if they have to rob YOUR retirement savings in order to give a wheelbarrow full of money to someone who didn't earn it so they can buy a loaf of bread. In this last election, 51% of the population voted that the other 49% should support them for the rest of their lives. That is what we are looking at folks and disarming the general population will be crucial to making their "hope(s)" a reality and their "change(s)" happen.




They might look at this as a cheaper way of keeping crime down than employing LEO's.

As far as paying for cable goes, well shit, rabbit ears won't work any more. Remember.
Link Posted: 11/20/2008 4:49:17 AM EDT
Originally Posted By Makarov:
I think you are wrong if you believe Fed, State or local Government is ever going to cut off funding for welfare programs. It simply ain't going to happen. The .gov agencies don't care that they are broke, they will still keep giving it all to the "entitled" and they will continue to do so even if they have to rob YOUR retirement savings in order to give a wheelbarrow full of money to someone who didn't earn it so they can buy a loaf of bread. In this last election, 51% of the population voted that the other 49% should support them for the rest of their lives. That is what we are looking at folks and disarming the general population will be crucial to making their "hope(s)" a reality and their "change(s)" happen.



Yep, buying votes in this manner seems to be the new American way in politics and as long as it keeps "them" in power - they'll keep on doing it.


Link Posted: 11/20/2008 5:22:42 AM EDT
Hmmm, after reading this article, I've come to the realization that I've been living in a depression, my whole life.
Link Posted: 11/20/2008 6:48:20 AM EDT
What I think about when I read this is how whiney and uncomfortable the American people especially the youth are if they don't have everything given to them. This will cause rioting and stealing on a level never seen before. The 1920s was an era of a majority of Christian or even other moral values. Today values teach us whatever makes you feel good do it. So that thought in mind we're going to see a generation that is mush like the people in New Orleans. Yes poor people and even some middle class people depending on how dark things get will simply steal and destroy things just for the sake of doing it. This siftless and moraless generation has no hope but what they have learned through pleasing self. It's going to get ugly when people can't have food or even the food they want.
Link Posted: 11/20/2008 7:06:53 AM EDT
The gubmint may not stop welfare checks...

But there's a surprise waiting for anyone who depends on those checks for survival...

Pass the popcorn.

Link Posted: 11/20/2008 7:52:42 AM EDT
If we had another depression [and I don't think we will] I don't think it would be near as bad as the one back in the 1930s. Lots of things are different today with goverment programs for the poor and un employed to fall back on plus I think people today are more resouceful plus being open to change more. Even in a depression they would probaly have more oportunitys open to them then they did back then. In the 1930s there were less diversity in jobs for people to do.
I do see maybe hard times coming, though to be honest i have seen no signs of it happening yet personaly, which will as they said in the article cause some people to tighten thier belts and buy less and smarter. This will cause some people who are smart to prosper. I talked to a guy the other day that repairs those little scooters that everyone seems to be buying because they want to save gas...his bussiness is booming and I would think if things got real bad he would still do well.

....Unless somthing really bad happens, [like a killer flu out break, major oil disruption, etc] I don't really see anything to bad happening. People have been talking about the next depression since when?....probably 1945?....I remember looking at some book back in the 1980s saying for sure it was going to hit in 1990....kind of funny, eh?........Todd
Link Posted: 11/20/2008 7:55:26 AM EDT
I think this is a possible scenario if government didn't collapse while trying to feed the masses. Do we just keep printing more money with no backing? At what point does the world decide your conscript is nothing more than toilet paper and not going to take it in exchange for anything they have to offer.
The whole article sounds like an advertisement for Socialized Medicine. We have created a disposable society based on a monetary house of cards and the time to pay the bill is close at hand. I for one am going to be packing while standing in the soup line!
Link Posted: 11/20/2008 8:09:26 AM EDT
Originally Posted By K1rodeoboater:
if we have another depression....things will get messy....very very messy. Guess I'm a doom and gloomer. Though I feel that my doom and gloom thoughts about it are pretty well founded. hungry people do desperate things, desperate things are often immoral things, immoral things are often illegal things....follow my logic?

In a nutshell, those zombie movies that we all like with hoards of zombies wanting to snack on your medulla oblongata. Replace the zombies with desperate hungry people, and instead of some brain food they'll be after your food.

It's sad how many people think that meat and produce comes from the supermarket . I know a person who swore up and down that the supermarket produces the food we eat and that they'll always have stuff there. They don't realize that steak = beef = cow let alone what part of the cow it comes from.

.....idiots......

maybe a 2nd depression would be a good pull your head out of your ass wake-up call for people



They said crime was actually down during the last depression. It seems illogical but crime increased during the good economic times of the 20s and 50s.
Link Posted: 11/20/2008 8:10:19 AM EDT
Originally Posted By jeffers_mz:
Bout what I expect from the Boston Globe.

Depression: sitting home, watching TV, eating fast food.

Ok...I'm taking action.

How long does this idiot live once the lights go out?



3 days max.
Link Posted: 11/20/2008 8:23:11 AM EDT
Originally Posted By JellyBelly:
Someone told me that we were spiraling toward a depression.

In one hand was a cell phone, in the other their $5 latte. They had an iPod on their hip with the earbuds around their neck.

They didn't seem to understand when I told them they had no idea what a depression was.


So true.
Link Posted: 11/20/2008 8:29:16 AM EDT
[Last Edit: 11/20/2008 2:13:41 PM EDT by R_S]
Celente is predicting the worst.

I will say that China not investing in the US is a serious problem for us. And if you look at US and Chinese manufacturing numbers and the Baltic Dry Index shipping numbers...

the signs say that we are now moving from a recession into a depression.

Don't know how bad it will be... but it won't be nice.

Joseph Goebbels predicts bad things(for the state) once ordinary folks are no longer shielded from the reality of the situation...“If you tell a lie big enough and keep repeating it, people will eventually come to believe it. The lie can be maintained only for such time as the State can shield the people from the political, economic and/or military consequences of the lie. It thus becomes vitally important for the State to use all of its powers to repress dissent, for the truth is the mortal enemy of the lie, and thus by extension, the truth is the greatest enemy of the State.”
Link Posted: 11/20/2008 11:11:08 AM EDT
Originally Posted By Dedhorse:
If we had another depression [and I don't think we will] I don't think it would be near as bad as the one back in the 1930s. Lots of things are different today with goverment programs for the poor and un employed to fall back on plus I think people today are more resouceful plus being open to change more. Even in a depression they would probaly have more oportunitys open to them then they did back then. In the 1930s there were less diversity in jobs for people to do.
I do see maybe hard times coming, though to be honest i have seen no signs of it happening yet personaly, which will as they said in the article cause some people to tighten thier belts and buy less and smarter. This will cause some people who are smart to prosper. I talked to a guy the other day that repairs those little scooters that everyone seems to be buying because they want to save gas...his bussiness is booming and I would think if things got real bad he would still do well.

....Unless somthing really bad happens, [like a killer flu out break, major oil disruption, etc] I don't really see anything to bad happening. People have been talking about the next depression since when?....probably 1945?....I remember looking at some book back in the 1980s saying for sure it was going to hit in 1990....kind of funny, eh?........Todd




Spelling aside, do you really think people today are MORE resourceful than Americans from the 1930s????

Most Americans today could not survive 30 days of the Great Depression (the lack of air-conditioning would kill most)
Link Posted: 11/20/2008 11:26:20 AM EDT
Originally Posted By Makarov:
Originally Posted By Dedhorse:
If we had another depression [and I don't think we will] I don't think it would be near as bad as the one back in the 1930s. Lots of things are different today with goverment programs for the poor and un employed to fall back on plus I think people today are more resouceful plus being open to change more. Even in a depression they would probaly have more oportunitys open to them then they did back then. In the 1930s there were less diversity in jobs for people to do.
I do see maybe hard times coming, though to be honest i have seen no signs of it happening yet personaly, which will as they said in the article cause some people to tighten thier belts and buy less and smarter. This will cause some people who are smart to prosper. I talked to a guy the other day that repairs those little scooters that everyone seems to be buying because they want to save gas...his bussiness is booming and I would think if things got real bad he would still do well.

....Unless somthing really bad happens, [like a killer flu out break, major oil disruption, etc] I don't really see anything to bad happening. People have been talking about the next depression since when?....probably 1945?....I remember looking at some book back in the 1980s saying for sure it was going to hit in 1990....kind of funny, eh?........Todd




Spelling aside, do you really think people today are MORE resourceful than Americans from the 1930s????

Most Americans today could not survive 30 days of the Great Depression (the lack of air-conditioning would kill most)


Hard physical labor would do in about 40% of what's left over of those who are under 40 years of age.

Link Posted: 11/20/2008 1:28:07 PM EDT
Originally Posted By Dedhorse:
If we had another depression [and I don't think we will] I don't think it would be near as bad as the one back in the 1930s. Lots of things are different today with goverment programs for the poor and un employed to fall back on plus I think people today are more resouceful plus being open to change more. Even in a depression they would probaly have more oportunitys open to them then they did back then. In the 1930s there were less diversity in jobs for people to do.
I do see maybe hard times coming, though to be honest i have seen no signs of it happening yet personaly, which will as they said in the article cause some people to tighten thier belts and buy less and smarter. This will cause some people who are smart to prosper. I talked to a guy the other day that repairs those little scooters that everyone seems to be buying because they want to save gas...his bussiness is booming and I would think if things got real bad he would still do well.

....Unless somthing really bad happens, [like a killer flu out break, major oil disruption, etc] I don't really see anything to bad happening. People have been talking about the next depression since when?....probably 1945?....I remember looking at some book back in the 1980s saying for sure it was going to hit in 1990....kind of funny, eh?........Todd

i seriously doubt you could support any of the red parts in the first paragraph.

as far as you not seeing "anything to [sic] bad happening", i guess the 50 or so thousand of citigroup's employees losing their job was for the better. or the trillions of dollars that have been lost isn't a big deal either. hold on while i call a client of mine and tell him that $80k he's lost from his portfolio isn't all that bad.
Link Posted: 11/20/2008 4:43:26 PM EDT
My fear is not that we will experience a bad recession or depression. It's if we will be able to stay solvent through this. We could very well survive this mess only to default in the next few years. There are already other countries like Iceland that are near collapse. The price of oil continues to fall and Russia . Valenzuela and other oil producing countries are inching closer to default every day. Once they start falling there is no stopping it.
Link Posted: 11/20/2008 5:16:09 PM EDT
So do you REALLY think there were more diversity in jobs back in 1930 then there is now?...Think of all the jobs we have now that people couldn't even begin to think about back then. I used to do blacksmith work when I got out of doing that I started selling stuff on the internet....now tell me a blacksmith that lost his job in 1930 could have done that?..No of course not but today we have more choices, more diversity , of jobs.
....I think also people nowdays are more used to working different jobs, how many people do you know have had only one job all their working life? In the 1930s much more likely I think for people to have staid in one place and worked the same job doing the same thing. Think of the Grapes of Wraith , where having to move across country looking for new work was such a major turmoil in the peoples lives.....today lots of people pull up roots and move with out giving it much thought.

Being able to work all day doing physical work isn't nessarly a sign of being resourceful.....matter of fact not having to do it might be....Todd
Link Posted: 11/20/2008 6:20:06 PM EDT
[Last Edit: 11/20/2008 6:22:02 PM EDT by Kihn]
Originally Posted By Dedhorse:
So do you REALLY think there were more diversity in jobs back in 1930 then there is now?...Think of all the jobs we have now that people couldn't even begin to think about back then. I used to do blacksmith work when I got out of doing that I started selling stuff on the internet....now tell me a blacksmith that lost his job in 1930 could have done that?..No of course not but today we have more choices, more diversity , of jobs.
....I think also people nowdays are more used to working different jobs, how many people do you know have had only one job all their working life? In the 1930s much more likely I think for people to have staid in one place and worked the same job doing the same thing. Think of the Grapes of Wraith , where having to move across country looking for new work was such a major turmoil in the peoples lives.....today lots of people pull up roots and move with out giving it much thought.

Being able to work all day doing physical work isn't nessarly a sign of being resourceful.....matter of fact not having to do it might be....Todd



Yeah there might be some hope that when unemployment is 20% and there are 25 million out of 35 million other people sharing a vast portfolio of managerial and HR experience that what jobs are available might require awesome people and Microsoft Office skills- who knows you just may be the lucky one they pick.

Of course if you are referring to living by your wits and taking a stride onto the dark side of the law I hear there are possiblities to flourish if your competition doesn't kill ya.
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