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Posted: 5/10/2005 10:59:49 PM EST
Just started the search for my first house. Have I not been paying attention or as this seriously gotten out of hand? My sister just bought a house 4 months ago and its already worth 75K more than what they paid for it!!!!

How the hell am I supposed to find something that is in a decent area, big enough for me and something that I can afford?

This sucks!!!
Link Posted: 5/10/2005 11:01:51 PM EST
Link Posted: 5/10/2005 11:22:52 PM EST
yet all the house prices are going up back east too...

Its a bubble... might collapse, might be stagnant for the next 10 years...

Tokyo real estate lost value for 10 years in a row and that land is about as scarce as you can imagine.
Link Posted: 5/11/2005 12:07:38 AM EST
My sister and brother-in-law built a house about 1.5 years ago out in Cave Creek for about $250,000, they also bought 5 acres a bit further out of town. They are starting to build on the 5 acre lot now and soon there old house will go on the market. All the house around them are selling for about $700,000. The are esimating that by the time they sell, the house will go for $750,000. That's quite a fucking profit.

In they end they will have a much nicer, bigger house on a much bigger lot, and some money to put back in the bank.

My brother and I screwed up when we rented this house instead of buying a couple years ago.
Link Posted: 5/11/2005 5:23:50 AM EST


I'm in the same boat, wanting to buy my first house. Hell if I'm going to pay the way over inflated prices though. I'll just wait until it pops. I could see if Kali fell off into the ocean and we had beach front property here. But that's not the case.
Link Posted: 5/11/2005 5:59:17 AM EST
I could've bought a house down here in Tucson for about $140K a year ago. I bet it would go for over $200k now. There is no fucking way I'm gonna spend +50% of my take home on a mortgage payment.

I guess I should check with Ed's boy, JLA, here in AZ and see what thay could qualify me for, just for shits and giggles.

Wes
Link Posted: 5/11/2005 6:34:08 AM EST

Originally Posted By a320az:
Just started the search for my first house. Have I not been paying attention or as this seriously gotten out of hand? My sister just bought a house 4 months ago and its already worth 75K more than what they paid for it!!!!

How the hell am I supposed to find something that is in a decent area, big enough for me and something that I can afford?

This sucks!!!


The answer is: Californians piling in by the droves.
Link Posted: 5/11/2005 7:05:00 AM EST
Yes, the housing market is getting a bit crazy. My wife an I bought our first home 2 1/2 years ago knowing that we would start a family and buy a bigger house in a few years. Here's the timeline:


Bought house in '02 $145K
Current Market Value $250-$260

Similar size house 20-35 mile away from the valley $275-$310

I guess we're staying for longer than we had planned.

Link Posted: 5/11/2005 7:10:32 AM EST
Link Posted: 5/11/2005 7:18:38 AM EST
I went out to Gold Canyon to find a solid place. In the end, t was a wise move. Admittedly, even Apace Junction is west of me-- but I highly recommend jumping in ASAP.

Don't bitch about the costs you'll incur-- smile about the profits you'll make!

Mike
Link Posted: 5/11/2005 8:30:34 AM EST
I've been looking (thought not seriously looking) down by Hunt Highway...prices are rising there too!
Link Posted: 5/11/2005 8:56:55 AM EST
I live in south Gilbert and my house is up over 200K since it was built 13mo's ago. Good luck on the house thing
Link Posted: 5/11/2005 9:00:45 AM EST
I work with 3 people who have all sold their homes recently in as little as 24 hours to as long as 72 hours of putting them on the market. They also made at least $60K profit. I left the East because of crazy house prices like this. Now I can only hope all the Commifornians will move away after thehot summer.
Link Posted: 5/11/2005 10:26:30 AM EST
I spoke to a realtor in the Phoenix metro area and she tells me that prices are going to be fixed or going up for quite a few years. I am also looking for a starter home and it is hard. It really piss me off that all the libs from ca are moving to AZ and the people that want to come back don't have a chance. Guess I'll be renting cause I do not want to end up with a mobile "manufactured" home.
Still looking ...
Link Posted: 5/11/2005 10:50:33 AM EST
Compared to other large cities around the country, our affordability index is in line or is actually low. It's not just people from Cal. that are sending prices higher. Compared to the rest of the country, we are still a good deal. Master planned communities are in the works for South of Arizona City, West of Harquahala, Gila Bend, South of Stanfield/Maricopa. These are sophisticated developers that don't plan these communities for practice. The inmigration studies, demographic studies and supply/demand studies back them up. Prices on housing are going up very fast, but not near as fast as the raw land itself. That's what is driving large chunk of the appreciation. Municipalities are increasing impact fees at unheard of rates to finance new infrastructure as well. The builder is making a decent lick, but not the percentage that builders in other parts of the country are making. Believe it or not, it's still a pretty competitive market (relatively speaking).

Waiting for prices to drop might work...or could make someone a lifetime renter.
Link Posted: 5/11/2005 12:21:35 PM EST

Originally Posted By jwrig:
Compared to other large cities around the country, our affordability index is in line or is actually low. It's not just people from Cal. that are sending prices higher. Compared to the rest of the country, we are still a good deal. Master planned communities are in the works for South of Arizona City, West of Harquahala, Gila Bend, South of Stanfield/Maricopa. These are sophisticated developers that don't plan these communities for practice. The inmigration studies, demographic studies and supply/demand studies back them up. Prices on housing are going up very fast, but not near as fast as the raw land itself. That's what is driving large chunk of the appreciation. Municipalities are increasing impact fees at unheard of rates to finance new infrastructure as well. The builder is making a decent lick, but not the percentage that builders in other parts of the country are making. Believe it or not, it's still a pretty competitive market (relatively speaking).

Waiting for prices to drop might work...or could make someone a lifetime renter.



+1

Remember, there are places in the country where a 3 bedroom house is at least a $300,000 investment. At least. In some places, that is a half million dollar house. Phoenix still very inexpensive in relation to other cities of comparable size.

Get in now, because it's only going to get worse. There may be a bubble in some parts of the country, but not here. What we have here is a price readjustment... Prices were too low in relation to the rest of the country, and it's starting to balance out.

When my parents moved here from Illinios, they bought twice the square footage here, on more land, for about the same price. Arizona has too much population that is coming from out of state for that to continue, the market will adjust itself.

I won't worry about housing prices until we're up well above the national average. We aren't anywhere close yet.
Link Posted: 5/11/2005 12:31:07 PM EST

Originally Posted By Redbone:
I work with 3 people who have all sold their homes recently in as little as 24 hours to as long as 72 hours of putting them on the market. They also made at least $60K profit. I left the East because of crazy house prices like this. Now I can only hope all the Commifornians will move away after thehot summer.



Air conditioning is the enemy! I liked it better when no o[ne wanted to live here.
Link Posted: 5/11/2005 12:49:18 PM EST

Originally Posted By Redbone:
I work with 3 people who have all sold their homes recently in as little as 24 hours to as long as 72 hours of putting them on the market. They also made at least $60K profit. I left the East because of crazy house prices like this. Now I can only hope all the Commifornians will move away after thehot summer.



A lot of the Kalifornians who are buying houses here don't plan on living in the homes. They are just buying the houses as investments - hoping to turn around and sell them in a few months or a few years for a tidy profit. Some are hoping to turn them into rental properties. The catch is that their mortages on the houses are so high that they are putting the rentals on the market with inflated rents. That's why you see a lot of these homes sitting vacant.

I had to go to Satan's front yard (San Francisco Bay area) last month for business. There were ads in newspapers for seminars on how to invest in Arizona property. Bastages!
Link Posted: 5/11/2005 1:12:18 PM EST
I bought some rental homes in Dec of 2003 that have doubled in value in the short year and a half.

I wish that I had even more.

I feel sorry for people that said they will buy a house next year. You could not save money fast enough to make up the difference.

The only thing that will hurt home values is a drastic increase with interest rates.

People don't seem to care about the price of the house, it is always the "payment" they are worried about.

There will also be a increase of apartments that will try to rezone and become "Condos". This is a trend that started in CA for the same reason.

Good luck.

I have a rental come available every so often, so if you are looking on the northwest side (Peoria) send me an IM or email.

I current have a friend with one available in Suprise.

Tom
Link Posted: 5/11/2005 2:28:22 PM EST
[Last Edit: 5/11/2005 5:25:19 PM EST by Pantera]

Originally Posted By ASUsax:

Compared to other large cities around the country, our affordability index is in line or is actually low. It's not just people from Cal. that are sending prices higher. Compared to the rest of the country, we are still a good deal. Master planned communities are in the works for South of Arizona City, West of Harquahala, Gila Bend, South of Stanfield/Maricopa. These are sophisticated developers that don't plan these communities for practice. The inmigration studies, demographic studies and supply/demand studies back them up. Prices on housing are going up very fast, but not near as fast as the raw land itself. That's what is driving large chunk of the appreciation. Municipalities are increasing impact fees at unheard of rates to finance new infrastructure as well. The builder is making a decent lick, but not the percentage that builders in other parts of the country are making. Believe it or not, it's still a pretty competitive market (relatively speaking).

Waiting for prices to drop might work...or could make someone a lifetime renter.



Ummm.... sorry, but got to disagree with you.
1. Midwest prices are lower, way lower than here.
2. The wages DO Not support the high inflated house rates.
3. I have lived here in prescott all my life, in fact I am a 3rd generation Prescottonian. And since all the Californians have been flocking in, the rates are way beyond the normal percentage increase.
Link Posted: 5/11/2005 3:43:18 PM EST
Quote

Ummm.... sorry, but got to disagree with you.
1. Midwest prices are lower, way lower than here.
2. The wages DO Not support the high inflated house rates.
3. I have lived here in prescott all my life, in fact I am a 3rd generation Prescottonian. And since all the Californians have been flocking in, the rates are way beyond the normal percentage increase.


Disagree with whom? There are three different people quoted in your reply. They were, I believe, talking about Phoenix area pricing, not Prescott. The reference to pricing in other parts of the country was a comparison to other large cities around the country, not Littleville, Iowa. The wages may or may not support the pricing here, but the extended Phoenix metro area is pulling 60,000+ permits a year. I'm guessing that people aren't qualifying for those homes with food stamps.
Link Posted: 5/11/2005 5:03:50 PM EST
[Last Edit: 5/11/2005 5:04:03 PM EST by 556_Chowder]
i bought my queen creek house in nov. 2003 at $128,000. now sells for $210,000
Link Posted: 5/11/2005 5:14:26 PM EST
[Last Edit: 5/12/2005 5:13:53 AM EST by K-9]
For those of you that are complaining about the rise in the price of a home here in Phoenix, give it a break!

Get on the band wagon and do it ASAP.
Once you purchase that home you will no longer be one of the whiners, and will be glade the price of you home is going up, you just made you a good profit.

Homes are going up and yea it cant last forever, but if you wait to buy when the prices level out you will be paying top dollar and wont benefit from this boom.

I want to buy another!!


Link Posted: 5/11/2005 5:30:00 PM EST

Originally Posted By jwrig:


Disagree with whom? There are three different people quoted in your reply. They were, I believe, talking about Phoenix area pricing, not Prescott. The reference to pricing in other parts of the country was acomparison to other large cities around the country, not Littleville, Iowa. The wages may or may not support the pricing here, but the extended Phoenix metro area is pulling 60,000+ permits a year. I'm guessing that people aren't qualifying for those homes with food stamps.



The author of this thread does not have Phoenix listed exclusivley.
He says "WTF is with house prices???" In this Arizona forum.
Link Posted: 5/11/2005 7:34:46 PM EST



Originally Posted By Pantera:

Originally Posted By jwrig:


Disagree with whom? There are three different people quoted in your reply. They were, I believe, talking about Phoenix area pricing, not Prescott. The reference to pricing in other parts of the country was acomparison to other large cities around the country, not Littleville, Iowa. The wages may or may not support the pricing here, but the extended Phoenix metro area is pulling 60,000+ permits a year. I'm guessing that people aren't qualifying for those homes with food stamps.



The author of this thread does not have Phoenix listed exclusivley.
He says "WTF is with house prices???" In this Arizona forum.




I agree. The points that the three people (that you quoted in your post) made were in reference to the greater Phoenix market. Your disagreement with their opinion was, presumably, predicated on your experience in the Prescott market. Two different markets. Sorry, not trying to trash you, just trying to figure out the basis for your disagreement with their statements/opinions. Not trying to trash your town either. It's a gorgeous place. Hence, the high demand/appeal/prices.

Peace.
Link Posted: 5/11/2005 7:42:48 PM EST
No problem. Sorry I goofed on the qoute, I am not used to using the quote feature here.
I fixed it.

By the way, I like the Stang !

Here is a pic of my first child
Link Posted: 5/11/2005 7:51:41 PM EST



By the way, I like the Stang !

Here is a pic of my first child
img.photobucket.com/albums/v324/Pantera_351/Pict0005.jpg




WOW! Now that's a ride. Very nice! If I had something that fast, my seats would have pucker marks.
Link Posted: 5/11/2005 8:54:13 PM EST

Originally Posted By FirearmTom1:


[snip]There will also be a increase of apartments that will try to rezone and become "Condos". This is a trend that started in CA for the same reason.[snip]


Tom



These aren't bad options for some poeple.

A friend of mine just bought one of these types in Mesa (Country Club & US 60 area). It was an apartment complex that was turned into a condominium complex. His one bedroom condo was (IIRC) $65,000. It's not much, but he can afford it and he's building equity.

Gotta start somewhere. I think he's doing much better than if he just continued to rent.
Link Posted: 5/11/2005 10:51:35 PM EST
Sorry, I should have been more specific. I am looking in the Phoenix area. I want South Scottsdale, North Phx, Peoria or Queen Creek.

Link Posted: 5/12/2005 4:21:56 AM EST
Its always amazing to me how many people WANT to stay in Phoenix, however, I guess its really a blessing for the rest of us.
Link Posted: 5/12/2005 6:15:39 AM EST
Thanks jwrig.
Problem is, I can't drive it anymore because the traffic is so thick.
Link Posted: 5/12/2005 9:35:57 AM EST

Originally Posted By FirearmTom1:
I bought some rental homes in Dec of 2003 that have doubled in value in the short year and a half.

I wish that I had even more.

I feel sorry for people that said they will buy a house next year. You could not save money fast enough to make up the difference.

The only thing that will hurt home values is a drastic increase with interest rates.

People don't seem to care about the price of the house, it is always the "payment" they are worried about.

There will also be a increase of apartments that will try to rezone and become "Condos". This is a trend that started in CA for the same reason.

Good luck.

I have a rental come available every so often, so if you are looking on the northwest side (Peoria) send me an IM or email.

I current have a friend with one available in Suprise.

Tom



IM inbound
Link Posted: 5/12/2005 10:40:52 AM EST

Originally Posted By jwrig:


Originally Posted By Pantera:

Originally Posted By jwrig:


Disagree with whom? There are three different people quoted in your reply. They were, I believe, talking about Phoenix area pricing, not Prescott. The reference to pricing in other parts of the country was acomparison to other large cities around the country, not Littleville, Iowa. The wages may or may not support the pricing here, but the extended Phoenix metro area is pulling 60,000+ permits a year. I'm guessing that people aren't qualifying for those homes with food stamps.



The author of this thread does not have Phoenix listed exclusivley.
He says "WTF is with house prices???" In this Arizona forum.




I agree. The points that the three people (that you quoted in your post) made were in reference to the greater Phoenix market. Your disagreement with their opinion was, presumably, predicated on your experience in the Prescott market. Two different markets. Sorry, not trying to trash you, just trying to figure out the basis for your disagreement with their statements/opinions. Not trying to trash your town either. It's a gorgeous place. Hence, the high demand/appeal/prices.

Peace.



Yeah, I was talking about other 'big cities'.

While you can still buy a cheap house in some areas, in somewhere like the Chicago Area, $300,000 will get you a fixer-upper 1200 SF house that's an hours drive from the city.

It's awful - we'll be that bad when people are talking about commuting from Camp Verde, not Gilbert/Glendale.
Link Posted: 5/12/2005 2:22:20 PM EST

Originally Posted By richardh247:

Originally Posted By FirearmTom1:
I bought some rental homes in Dec of 2003 that have doubled in value in the short year and a half.

I wish that I had even more.

I feel sorry for people that said they will buy a house next year. You could not save money fast enough to make up the difference.

The only thing that will hurt home values is a drastic increase with interest rates.

People don't seem to care about the price of the house, it is always the "payment" they are worried about.

There will also be a increase of apartments that will try to rezone and become "Condos". This is a trend that started in CA for the same reason.

Good luck.

I have a rental come available every so often, so if you are looking on the northwest side (Peoria) send me an IM or email.

I current have a friend with one available in Suprise.

Tom



IM inbound



IM returned.

Link Posted: 5/12/2005 3:04:07 PM EST
Payed 52K for mine in '89, last appraised @ 176K, and that was 4 years ago.

AB
Link Posted: 5/12/2005 4:09:06 PM EST

Originally Posted By ASUsax:

It's awful - we'll be that bad when people are talking about commuting from Camp Verde, not Gilbert/Glendale.



Oh man! that is so true :D lol
Link Posted: 5/15/2005 7:46:05 AM EST
Dang...



I bought my house in Mesa for $120,000 three years ago. I wonder what that bad boy is up to now? Hopefully the increasing trend will continue until I'm done with school and ready to cash in and move out.
Link Posted: 5/16/2005 9:40:13 PM EST
If you can buy, do it.
As much as prices have increased in the past year, there's no sign of the bubble bursting anytime soon. The rate of price increases may not stay as high as it has been for another year, but prices will continue to climb.
As I found out today, even out in Eloy things are getting crazy. Get in if you possibly can, there's a lot of different financing programs to make homes more affordable than years ago and many require little or no down payment.
It's all about credit, how much you can afford to pay, and actually being able to get in on a house. So many builders have lotteries and/or waiting lists right now and resales are going in record times, many times above listing price because several offers are coming in almost instantly.
Again, my words of advice: if you can buy a house, do it. If you need a good Realtor, let me know and I can get you in touch with one.
Most people are surprised at how much they could be qualified for when it comes to a mortgage. Of course, credit scores are HUGE! Along with income and employment specifics (determining what kind of programs you may qualify for) many people could actually get approved for more house than they feel comfortable paying for.

It's a sad fact that some people are being priced out of the market, but it's only going to get worse in that sense. There are also many cases where people THINK they're getting priced out of the market, but may be able to afford more house than they think with things such as stated income and interest only loan programs. In some cases a short term ARM may be the way to go in order to get into a house and then look to refinance sooner than conventional wisdom would say.
Link Posted: 5/17/2005 2:04:47 PM EST
Some of you guys are funny, you are saying buy a house soon because in a couple years noone will be able to afford to buy one...

guess what, housing prices will then drop so people can again afford to buy them. Or people will just leave causing prices to also drop. I guess income could also dramatically rise, but have you seen the Phoenix job market, I doubt that one the most.

I was out past Hawes road on Elliot, there is plenty of land. In fact the area between Gilbert, Gold Canyon and Florence is bigger than Mesa and Scottsdale put together. And its all state land so it will be eventually sold.

Don't compare prices by comparing one bubble to another. Geographically, most of the country has not seen much of a rise in the last 5 years. Plus, Chicago is a poor example because average income is much higher than Phoenix.

Median prices here have now exceeded 4x median income, that is already really pushing it. If you buy, plan to live there a while and you will be okay. Buy close in however, because the communities on the fringe will be competing with builders who have already locked their land costs in and they will continue building bust or boom.

Also figure this, nationwide last year 35%+ of homes were sold for investment or vacation homes, I doubt many of these were in Houston or Cleveland. So what is the Phoenix rate? 45-50%??? Something to think about.

Link Posted: 5/17/2005 4:02:32 PM EST
... Please read this informative piece by the FDIC if you're serious about concerns regarding home values, booms & busts

U.S. Home Prices: Does Bust Always Follow Boom?
Link Posted: 5/17/2005 5:36:01 PM EST

Originally Posted By Winston_Wolf:
... Please read this informative piece by the FDIC if you're serious about concerns regarding home values, booms & busts

U.S. Home Prices: Does Bust Always Follow Boom?



+1

An informed opinion based on empirical data instead of the "rectumus extraction technique"

Thanks, Double W.
-jwrig

PS - I'll trade my tricked out V-Rod for your scooter and your new lot.

Just fishing.....
Link Posted: 5/17/2005 9:31:10 PM EST
The last paragraph is the one that matters in that story. Also, this is the real issue, for the first time in history, rising equity prices have driven a significant amount of consumer spending via home equity loans. In addition, half to 3/4 of all jobs created in Arizona and California created in the last couple years were real estate/construction related.

Short story, the economic recovery driving home prices up is driven by building and selling homes.

There was a time that low interest rates led to enhanced capital spending and the building of new factories by American corporations. Now it just leads to strip malls and McMansions. I guess the 21st Century American economy will be based on Ebay and realtors selling real estate to each other. Stupid Chinese are investing in steel mills and manufacturing...

Check out some graphs here, especially construction spending.

http://www.prudentbear.com/bc_chart_library.html
Link Posted: 5/18/2005 7:13:42 AM EST

Originally Posted By Quake_Guy:
The last paragraph is the one that matters in that story. Also, this is the real issue, for the first time in history, rising equity prices have driven a significant amount of consumer spending via home equity loans. In addition, half to 3/4 of all jobs created in Arizona and California created in the last couple years were real estate/construction related.

Short story, the economic recovery driving home prices up is driven by building and selling homes.

There was a time that low interest rates led to enhanced capital spending and the building of new factories by American corporations. Now it just leads to strip malls and McMansions. I guess the 21st Century American economy will be based on Ebay and realtors selling real estate to each other. Stupid Chinese are investing in steel mills and manufacturing...

Check out some graphs here, especially construction spending.

http://www.prudentbear.com/bc_chart_library.html



FDIC versus "the Prudent Bear?"

Look, I'm a Conservative in my political and in my business outlook. However, ANY site called "the prudent bear" is probably going to move beyond advocating caution and advising upon down markets and into the realm of chicken little scenarios.

...wow, check the homepage.

"Global Conspiracy of Fools"
"Why the Bear Market is Not Over"
"Is the Dollar at Risk?"
"The Dollar Crisis"

...and their "quotable" is:

"Better to go to bed supperless, than wake up in debt."
- Benjamin Franklin

Are things like the high-flying 90's? Nope... But is EVERYTHING gloom and doom?

You have to take some risks to get ahead. However, you conduct research, engage in due dilligence, and really observe the possible opportunity before sticking your dollars on the line. You mitigate that risk through forethought and thorough investigation.

Can you still lose your investment? Sure! I look over my investments and realize that I've made a few mistakes throughout the years. That's why you get paid-- there has to be a counterweight of sorts to the chance that you might lose everything.

One final note- not all debt is bad. Educational debt often pays for itself many times over. Homes appreciate faster than the interest costs. (I'll also add that mortgage debt is tax deductable!) Some business loans are WELL worth the interest paid once the profits are counted up!

Debt, in and of itself, is NOT bad! It's paying horrendous amounts of interest and getting nothing in return for the debt (like so much of the consumer/credit card debt out there) that is bad!

Mike
Link Posted: 5/19/2005 8:43:00 AM EST
I currently have a house being built in Queen Creek for me. I also live out in Queen Creek so living that far away is no big deal. It took 2 1/2 years for my current house to go up about 10k. It took 1/2 year for it to go up another 50k. My buddy just bought a house in Chandler. Since he bought it(It was being built) it has gone up in value 200,000 bucks. Thats in only 7 months. Their is no way that area can support that kind of growth. My new house has gone up 16k in 2 weeks but it only stopped goijng up in price because they ran out of room. when the new division opens accross the street Im sure their will be a huge increase in asking prices. If you are a real estate investor, you have missed your chance in AZ. I'm not saying you can't make money but I have a feeling its going to cool off in the not so distant future. Lets just hope its after I've sold my current home.
Link Posted: 5/19/2005 7:53:51 PM EST
I wouldn't dimiss anything becuase you compare it to a government run website. If so you better change your gun attitudes in a hurry next time a Democratic president is elected.

By the way, that is why I listed the graphs. Compare them to "official" govt data and they will tell you all the same thing, debt has exploded... especially poor quality debt.

Greenspan and friends have been responsible for the two largest bubbles of all time. Even Greenspan is now railing against Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae for buying up tons of junk mortgages no questions asked.

And don't forget that due to the current account balance made up of trade deficit and annual budget deficits, America has to borrow $1 trillion dollars a year. This actually consumes 75% of the world savings rate.

Eventually, Japan and China will tire of subsidizing a bunch of Americans engorging themselves on huge houses and SUVs on the cheap. Once they start demanding higher interest rates, watch out.
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