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Posted: 1/19/2013 6:33:03 PM EST
So I just got back to HQ. I was at SHOT with the XO and GM since Monday. We usually don't go to the media shoot as I do not care for organized ranges unless I am running them so we did not go to that event. But the rest....

The state of the industry seems to be one of "getting ready for a big fight". SHOT attendees can be categorized into three groups. You have the "Gun Show Crowd" that gets in via some sort of skullduggery stretching of the truth. They are not really in the business of buying anything and either run some mom-and-pop shops or are in some volunteer church security gig and thus get in for the purpose of oogle things and clogging the aisles. Next you have the "Badass Crowd". They are there to show everyone how bad they are by wearing shirts two sizes too small and showing off their hard looks and cool-killer handling of guns on other people's exhibits. Finally, you have the business people. They tend to wear suits and expensive watches and move from one back room deal to another. It is in this last group that we move in, and it is in this last group that the real info flows.

On Monday there was palpable stress. We usually schedule most of our meeting then so we can allocate one day to follow up and one day to look for up and coming stuff. The feeling Monday was that there would be a big fight coming this year. The big guys were not worried about EOs (executive orders) they knew the limits of those having consulted with their attorneys beforehand. Perhaps someone should have shared that with that guy in Tennessee before he made that video, but back to the points.

The EOs did nothing and many guys were surprised that there was not some sort of import restriction on ammo or guns. The real fight will be in the legislature, but before anyone lights their victory cigar, the movers and shakers are not lighting anything. Let me restate that...the CEOs of companies that make the Suarez Group look like a lemonade stand are NOT CELEBRATING, they are doing as follows:

They have pared down their offerings to the easiest to makes/easiest to sell. SIG for example has pared down their rifle offerings in 2013 to the following: 516, 716, 556R, and M400. Period. We have some other stuff on order and will get it, but don't expect to see anything else. They really do not know if SHOT 2014 will have ANY military rifles. And that is from the guys that have access to info and people that few do.

Expect in the next few weeks....WEEKS NOT MONTHS...production to catch up on most rifles..and magazines. But do not expect prices to drop. Prices are not only set at the manufacturer level, but at the distributor and dealer levels. The closer one is to the manufacturer, the fewer people step on the price, which is why we have been able to offer SIGs at half the gun show prices. But eventually market forces change those things.

I saw M4s everywhere. Every other booth almsot. SI will by the requirements of market forces have to take a stronger look at the M4. Likes and dislikes do not have a place in this market. By the same token, AKs were rare. We saw them at Wolf, Arsenal, IO and Century, but nothing at all new and interesting. In fact, the ONLY new thing we saw was the VEPR 12, but it is heavy and long and with only magazines made by the "salvation army crowd" it will not prevail in a quality-seeking market. We did stop by Fabrika Broni...the Poles trying to sell their expensive old rifles last year. Few were taking a second look this year and the men in the booth looked bored. Sorry...but I predicted this mid last year.

The notable rifles of the show - The Tavor (God willing they will get here before the left manages to make anything happen), the Beretta ARX - this one was uber impressive and could make the SCAR system look antiquated by comparison. The Czech rifles...I forget the designation, but they are slated only for Mil-Pol uses. The SIG SMG...the MPX. Very nice. They have no plans to any pistols of any long barreled stuff, but there will be SBRs. As with most NFA things...not for those on a budget.

Optics - I spent some time looking at the Browe optics. Hmmmmm. Most everything else was the same as what we saw last year. Nothing new.

There were a few interesting products, but they all share hard challenges bringing them to market and I will not give the impression I approve or disapprove of them. I have seen in the past that my comments seem to affect things like the Fed's expressions affect the DOW, so I shall remain quiet until I see more.

As usual...lots of nylon, lots of flashlights, lots of clever-camo. Same pistols as last year. Only notable one was the S&W MP with the red dots. Incidentally, the only red dots that cowitnessed with this were the Delta Points and RMR. TSD will probably reposition to offer more guns and more red dots as well since we made some very good agreements at SHOT. I still like the RMR, but Leupold tells me they have been doing some testing, and well....more later.

Missing conspicuosly - militia type stuff...loud gun people...1776 stuff...take back America stuff...Ted Nugent (at least I didn't see him), "I'ma sturt killin peeple" type guys. Security was far more present than I recall last year. Not oppressive, but more present if you are used to looking for such things.

My suggestions based on what I saw. If you want something, get it now. I see many FFLs getting out of the business in the coming year. There was talk of "coming crackdowns", etc. Me, I believe it. That means fewer places to buy guns and more money to get them.

What to get? You cannot go wrong with a high end M4. I have said that an M4 is more reliable than the AK crowd says it is, just as a good AK is more accurate than the M4 crowd gives it credit for. Market forces demand I take a harder look at the M4. When we arrive at our conclusions, it will likely give the traditional M4-mafia-world a testicular rupture, but we will wait for that happy moment.

My own purchases in the past month have included four top tier M4s from Noveske, Knights, Daniel defense, and SIG. I already have plenty of 7.62x39s including two 556Rs. As well, M4 and AK-47 magazines will be like gold. I did set aside a handful of billet lowers for some special projects. I would not bother much with 5.45 as a GOTO any longer nor as an investment, but others may disagree. Whatever.

I committed deeply to M4 platform rifles, M4 receivers, M4 magazines and other rifles that accept them such as Tavors, and FS2000 (although they will be in limited numbers).

I spoke with several ammo makers and they are committed to taking over the 7.62x39 market in ammo. This could be the best thing that happens to this caliber by the way. Steyr had the AUG (I call it "AWG" like "dawg" and don't care if someone doesn't like it), but they had nobody there that wanted to touch it, nor knew anything about it. It was almsot as if they were apologetic for it being there in the first place...like a pedophile cousin that must sit at the Christmas table but nobody really wants him there.

I also saw many "tactical" focused companies begin to dabble in the sporting field...meaning they anticipate that "the tactical" will probably not be a viable market soon. When you see a multi-million dollar tactical company beging to focus on non-tactical, it is clear what they are seeing down the road.

Bottom lines - this sh*t ain't over by a long shot and the forces of darkness have a great deal of capital...both financial and political. And my view...if the force of good were that organized and that powerful, how on earth did they allow him to get re-elected? After three days of in depth meetings and 16 hour days, I am not very optimistic about the future of the black rifle in America, but I could be totally wrong.
Link Posted: 1/19/2013 7:39:04 PM EST
[#1]
Quoted:
So I just got back to HQ. I was at SHOT with the XO and GM since Monday. We usually don't go to the media shoot as I do not care for organized ranges unless I am running them so we did not go to that event. But the rest....

The state of the industry seems to be one of "getting ready for a big fight". SHOT attendees can be categorized into three groups. You have the "Gun Show Crowd" that gets in via some sort of skullduggery stretching of the truth. They are not really in the business of buying anything and either run some mom-and-pop shops or are in some volunteer church security gig and thus get in for the purpose of oogle things and clogging the aisles. Next you have the "Badass Crowd". They are there to show everyone how bad they are by wearing shirts two sizes too small and showing off their hard looks and cool-killer handling of guns on other people's exhibits. Finally, you have the business people. They tend to wear suits and expensive watches and move from one back room deal to another. It is in this last group that we move in, and it is in this last group that the real info flows.

On Monday there was palpable stress. We usually schedule most of our meeting then so we can allocate one day to follow up and one day to look for up and coming stuff. The feeling Monday was that there would be a big fight coming this year. The big guys were not worried about EOs (executive orders) they knew the limits of those having consulted with their attorneys beforehand. Perhaps someone should have shared that with that guy in Tennessee before he made that video, but back to the points.

The EOs did nothing and many guys were surprised that there was not some sort of import restriction on ammo or guns. The real fight will be in the legislature, but before anyone lights their victory cigar, the movers and shakers are not lighting anything. Let me restate that...the CEOs of companies that make the Suarez Group look like a lemonade stand are NOT CELEBRATING, they are doing as follows:

They have pared down their offerings to the easiest to makes/easiest to sell. SIG for example has pared down their rifle offerings in 2013 to the following: 516, 716, 556R, and M400. Period. We have some other stuff on order and will get it, but don't expect to see anything else. They really do not know if SHOT 2014 will have ANY military rifles. And that is from the guys that have access to info and people that few do.

Expect in the next few weeks....WEEKS NOT MONTHS...production to catch up on most rifles..and magazines. But do not expect prices to drop. Prices are not only set at the manufacturer level, but at the distributor and dealer levels. The closer one is to the manufacturer, the fewer people step on the price, which is why we have been able to offer SIGs at half the gun show prices. But eventually market forces change those things.

I saw M4s everywhere. Every other booth almsot. SI will by the requirements of market forces have to take a stronger look at the M4. Likes and dislikes do not have a place in this market. By the same token, AKs were rare. We saw them at Wolf, Arsenal, IO and Century, but nothing at all new and interesting. In fact, the ONLY new thing we saw was the VEPR 12, but it is heavy and long and with only magazines made by the "salvation army crowd" it will not prevail in a quality-seeking market. We did stop by Fabrika Broni...the Poles trying to sell their expensive old rifles last year. Few were taking a second look this year and the men in the booth looked bored. Sorry...but I predicted this mid last year.

The notable rifles of the show - The Tavor (God willing they will get here before the left manages to make anything happen), the Beretta ARX - this one was uber impressive and could make the SCAR system look antiquated by comparison. The Czech rifles...I forget the designation, but they are slated only for Mil-Pol uses. The SIG SMG...the MPX. Very nice. They have no plans to any pistols of any long barreled stuff, but there will be SBRs. As with most NFA things...not for those on a budget.

Optics - I spent some time looking at the Browe optics. Hmmmmm. Most everything else was the same as what we saw last year. Nothing new.

There were a few interesting products, but they all share hard challenges bringing them to market and I will not give the impression I approve or disapprove of them. I have seen in the past that my comments seem to affect things like the Fed's expressions affect the DOW, so I shall remain quiet until I see more.

As usual...lots of nylon, lots of flashlights, lots of clever-camo. Same pistols as last year. Only notable one was the S&W MP with the red dots. Incidentally, the only red dots that cowitnessed with this were the Delta Points and RMR. TSD will probably reposition to offer more guns and more red dots as well since we made some very good agreements at SHOT. I still like the RMR, but Leupold tells me they have been doing some testing, and well....more later.

Missing conspicuosly - militia type stuff...loud gun people...1776 stuff...take back America stuff...Ted Nugent (at least I didn't see him), "I'ma sturt killin peeple" type guys. Security was far more present than I recall last year. Not oppressive, but more present if you are used to looking for such things.

My suggestions based on what I saw. If you want something, get it now. I see many FFLs getting out of the business in the coming year. There was talk of "coming crackdowns", etc. Me, I believe it. That means fewer places to buy guns and more money to get them.

What to get? You cannot go wrong with a high end M4. I have said that an M4 is more reliable than the AK crowd says it is, just as a good AK is more accurate than the M4 crowd gives it credit for. Market forces demand I take a harder look at the M4. When we arrive at our conclusions, it will likely give the traditional M4-mafia-world a testicular rupture, but we will wait for that happy moment.

My own purchases in the past month have included four top tier M4s from Noveske, Knights, Daniel defense, and SIG. I already have plenty of 7.62x39s including two 556Rs. As well, M4 and AK-47 magazines will be like gold. I did set aside a handful of billet lowers for some special projects. I would not bother much with 5.45 as a GOTO any longer nor as an investment, but others may disagree. Whatever.

I committed deeply to M4 platform rifles, M4 receivers, M4 magazines and other rifles that accept them such as Tavors, and FS2000 (although they will be in limited numbers).

I spoke with several ammo makers and they are committed to taking over the 7.62x39 market in ammo. This could be the best thing that happens to this caliber by the way. Steyr had the AUG (I call it "AWG" like "dawg" and don't care if someone doesn't like it), but they had nobody there that wanted to touch it, nor knew anything about it. It was almsot as if they were apologetic for it being there in the first place...like a pedophile cousin that must sit at the Christmas table but nobody really wants him there.

I also saw many "tactical" focused companies begin to dabble in the sporting field...meaning they anticipate that "the tactical" will probably not be a viable market soon. When you see a multi-million dollar tactical company beging to focus on non-tactical, it is clear what they are seeing down the road.

Bottom lines - this sh*t ain't over by a long shot and the forces of darkness have a great deal of capital...both financial and political. And my view...if the force of good were that organized and that powerful, how on earth did they allow him to get re-elected? After three days of in depth meetings and 16 hour days, I am not very optimistic about the future of the black rifle in America, but I could be totally wrong.


Lugerman, is that your summary, or are you quoting some source?  If it is a source, please say who, as I read something similar today from a source that I have absolutely no respect for.
Link Posted: 1/19/2013 9:54:05 PM EST
[#2]
Thank you for the post
Link Posted: 1/20/2013 5:44:42 AM EST
[#3]
Quoted:
Quoted:
So I just got back to HQ. I was at SHOT with the XO and GM since Monday. We usually don't go to the media shoot as I do not care for organized ranges unless I am running them so we did not go to that event. But the rest....

The state of the industry seems to be one of "getting ready for a big fight". SHOT attendees can be categorized into three groups. You have the "Gun Show Crowd" that gets in via some sort of skullduggery stretching of the truth. They are not really in the business of buying anything and either run some mom-and-pop shops or are in some volunteer church security gig and thus get in for the purpose of oogle things and clogging the aisles. Next you have the "Badass Crowd". They are there to show everyone how bad they are by wearing shirts two sizes too small and showing off their hard looks and cool-killer handling of guns on other people's exhibits. Finally, you have the business people. They tend to wear suits and expensive watches and move from one back room deal to another. It is in this last group that we move in, and it is in this last group that the real info flows.

On Monday there was palpable stress. We usually schedule most of our meeting then so we can allocate one day to follow up and one day to look for up and coming stuff. The feeling Monday was that there would be a big fight coming this year. The big guys were not worried about EOs (executive orders) they knew the limits of those having consulted with their attorneys beforehand. Perhaps someone should have shared that with that guy in Tennessee before he made that video, but back to the points.

The EOs did nothing and many guys were surprised that there was not some sort of import restriction on ammo or guns. The real fight will be in the legislature, but before anyone lights their victory cigar, the movers and shakers are not lighting anything. Let me restate that...the CEOs of companies that make the Suarez Group look like a lemonade stand are NOT CELEBRATING, they are doing as follows:

They have pared down their offerings to the easiest to makes/easiest to sell. SIG for example has pared down their rifle offerings in 2013 to the following: 516, 716, 556R, and M400. Period. We have some other stuff on order and will get it, but don't expect to see anything else. They really do not know if SHOT 2014 will have ANY military rifles. And that is from the guys that have access to info and people that few do.

Expect in the next few weeks....WEEKS NOT MONTHS...production to catch up on most rifles..and magazines. But do not expect prices to drop. Prices are not only set at the manufacturer level, but at the distributor and dealer levels. The closer one is to the manufacturer, the fewer people step on the price, which is why we have been able to offer SIGs at half the gun show prices. But eventually market forces change those things.

I saw M4s everywhere. Every other booth almsot. SI will by the requirements of market forces have to take a stronger look at the M4. Likes and dislikes do not have a place in this market. By the same token, AKs were rare. We saw them at Wolf, Arsenal, IO and Century, but nothing at all new and interesting. In fact, the ONLY new thing we saw was the VEPR 12, but it is heavy and long and with only magazines made by the "salvation army crowd" it will not prevail in a quality-seeking market. We did stop by Fabrika Broni...the Poles trying to sell their expensive old rifles last year. Few were taking a second look this year and the men in the booth looked bored. Sorry...but I predicted this mid last year.

The notable rifles of the show - The Tavor (God willing they will get here before the left manages to make anything happen), the Beretta ARX - this one was uber impressive and could make the SCAR system look antiquated by comparison. The Czech rifles...I forget the designation, but they are slated only for Mil-Pol uses. The SIG SMG...the MPX. Very nice. They have no plans to any pistols of any long barreled stuff, but there will be SBRs. As with most NFA things...not for those on a budget.

Optics - I spent some time looking at the Browe optics. Hmmmmm. Most everything else was the same as what we saw last year. Nothing new.

There were a few interesting products, but they all share hard challenges bringing them to market and I will not give the impression I approve or disapprove of them. I have seen in the past that my comments seem to affect things like the Fed's expressions affect the DOW, so I shall remain quiet until I see more.

As usual...lots of nylon, lots of flashlights, lots of clever-camo. Same pistols as last year. Only notable one was the S&W MP with the red dots. Incidentally, the only red dots that cowitnessed with this were the Delta Points and RMR. TSD will probably reposition to offer more guns and more red dots as well since we made some very good agreements at SHOT. I still like the RMR, but Leupold tells me they have been doing some testing, and well....more later.

Missing conspicuosly - militia type stuff...loud gun people...1776 stuff...take back America stuff...Ted Nugent (at least I didn't see him), "I'ma sturt killin peeple" type guys. Security was far more present than I recall last year. Not oppressive, but more present if you are used to looking for such things.

My suggestions based on what I saw. If you want something, get it now. I see many FFLs getting out of the business in the coming year. There was talk of "coming crackdowns", etc. Me, I believe it. That means fewer places to buy guns and more money to get them.

What to get? You cannot go wrong with a high end M4. I have said that an M4 is more reliable than the AK crowd says it is, just as a good AK is more accurate than the M4 crowd gives it credit for. Market forces demand I take a harder look at the M4. When we arrive at our conclusions, it will likely give the traditional M4-mafia-world a testicular rupture, but we will wait for that happy moment.

My own purchases in the past month have included four top tier M4s from Noveske, Knights, Daniel defense, and SIG. I already have plenty of 7.62x39s including two 556Rs. As well, M4 and AK-47 magazines will be like gold. I did set aside a handful of billet lowers for some special projects. I would not bother much with 5.45 as a GOTO any longer nor as an investment, but others may disagree. Whatever.

I committed deeply to M4 platform rifles, M4 receivers, M4 magazines and other rifles that accept them such as Tavors, and FS2000 (although they will be in limited numbers).

I spoke with several ammo makers and they are committed to taking over the 7.62x39 market in ammo. This could be the best thing that happens to this caliber by the way. Steyr had the AUG (I call it "AWG" like "dawg" and don't care if someone doesn't like it), but they had nobody there that wanted to touch it, nor knew anything about it. It was almsot as if they were apologetic for it being there in the first place...like a pedophile cousin that must sit at the Christmas table but nobody really wants him there.

I also saw many "tactical" focused companies begin to dabble in the sporting field...meaning they anticipate that "the tactical" will probably not be a viable market soon. When you see a multi-million dollar tactical company beging to focus on non-tactical, it is clear what they are seeing down the road.

Bottom lines - this sh*t ain't over by a long shot and the forces of darkness have a great deal of capital...both financial and political. And my view...if the force of good were that organized and that powerful, how on earth did they allow him to get re-elected? After three days of in depth meetings and 16 hour days, I am not very optimistic about the future of the black rifle in America, but I could be totally wrong.


Lugerman, is that your summary, or are you quoting some source?  If it is a source, please say who, as I read something similar today from a source that I have absolutely no respect for.


No from an email I received on another board.
Link Posted: 1/20/2013 10:07:59 AM EST
[#4]
Link Posted: 1/20/2013 12:56:35 PM EST
[#5]
Quoted:
The author lost me when Sig was mentioned as a "top tier" AR manufacturer.  Sig ARs (here in CO) have a reputation of not working out of the box.


Because the author is, or is affiliated with, convicted criminal and basic scumbag Gabe Suarez, who is trying to sell Sigs

Thank you for posting your opinion MAP!

However pertaining to the original post, anything that comes from Gabe or his company means very little to me as it is usually him trying to sell his product of the month.

Link Posted: 1/20/2013 3:41:20 PM EST
[#6]
Link Posted: 1/20/2013 4:47:42 PM EST
[#7]
* < that's my grain of salt.  I took it.  
A lot of information there, but I'm having difficulty with the "doomsday" undertone of it.  It's my opinion that the market is primarily set by the people that make the money off the market in the first place and have the most to invest in the way people perceive it.  Instigating the fears that we all have as a compulsive breed to begin with, of trampled liberty and restricted rights, is what is making MILLIONS for the businesses that know best how to exploit it.  I've watched Ruger and Smith & Wesson prove my point since 2010.  Up until 2010 RGR traded at or below $15 a share for years.  It's now trading over $50 and if you got in when I did, you made a small fortune off of the same fear mongered market that exists right now.  SWHC traded in the $3-$4 range around the same time and is now at just over $9.  The share holders and executives of those two and many other gun related companies are printing money over our fear and the last thing they want is for that fear to go away prematurely.  
I'm not resting on my laurels or trusting anyone else to fight for me, but I am certainly not buying a "lost cause" mentality just yet.  

Thanks for sharing Lugerman.
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