For those with wives.. This should be helpful.

If economics taught me anything.. here is how it works

The US Govt increased the money supply yesterday.

Given the equation that says an increase in the money supply=high prices (Inflation)
So when prices go up bank account interest usually isnt sufficient to hedge inflation.

The best way to do that is with something that will appreciate in pricelevel at the same speed as inflation.. So gold, silver etc usually work well. But dont tellthe wife that diamonds would work!

So go out.. buy a few more guns because they shouldnt depreciate at the same rate as inflation will grow.. You should win!

Your results may vary.. and its been a long morning :)

Sounds good to me, and I took Intro to Macroeconomics second semester of my freshman year, so I know this stuff.  

I love my wife too much to upset her with stuff like how much I just spent on a gun.  

You would get a better return buying ammo.   Pretty soon, Ammo will be too expensive to shoot.

Quoted: I love my wife too much to upset her with stuff like how much I just spent on a gun.

I have two words for you...Dooney & Burke...do you know how much she pays for purses?!?!? Man, I got double trouble cause my wife likes purses AND guns!!!


ByteTheBullet  (-:

Quoted: Quoted: I love my wife too much to upset her with stuff like how much I just spent on a gun.   I have two words for you...Dooney & Burke...do you know how much she pays for purses?!?!? Man, I got double trouble cause my wife likes purses AND guns!!! ByteTheBullet  (-:

Brother I feel your pain, mine likes match colered diamonds to her black rifle.

Chris

Quoted: You would get a better return buying ammo.   Pretty soon, Ammo will be too expensive to shoot.

I disagree and just DUMPED my 8mm stach on the market

I forsee ammo prices going down within the next 5 months!

Quoted: Quoted: You would get a better return buying ammo.   Pretty soon, Ammo will be too expensive to shoot. I disagree and just DUMPED my 8mm stach on the market I forsee ammo prices going down within the next 5 months!

Hope you're right.  On what do you base this?  Maybe we need to start trading ammunition futures.

I don't know about ammuniton futures, but you might want to watch ATK. Thats the stock symbol for the parent company of Federal Ammunition. They are a huge defense contractor. I'm sorry to say I almost bought it the other day when it was 99/share, 2 days before their earnings announcement. Now its like 114 or something and its holding its own in a market thats dropping. Another related stock is LLL, they own EoTech but are also much larger than that.

Quoted: Quoted: You would get a better return buying ammo.   Pretty soon, Ammo will be too expensive to shoot. I disagree and just DUMPED my 8mm stach on the market I forsee ammo prices going down within the next 5 months!

I don't think it will come down much if at all (I don't think it will go up much more either), fuel prices keep metal prices high, and the EU and UN liberals are putting pressure on each other to stop the proliferation of small arms, including ammo.  For instance, from what I've heard the swiss have 7.5 ammo to sell, but they are land locked and can't get it out of the country, maybe its just a rumor, maybe not.

I used to tell my wife my guns were an investment, she knows better, thats why I build AK's, I tell her I can't sell them.

I'll be keeping my hoard of 8mm, its too fun to shoot in the mausers, and my 1919's.  I do sell small quantities to friends who've just aquired mausers though (at just below market price).  If the Madison range doesn't reopen so I have a place to shoot my 1919's with the crankhandle installed, my 8mm will last me forever.  Rather than get a gun in another caliber, I have a Saig.308 I am going to convert to 8mm with a new barrel and an mg13 mag + other mods this winter.  It should be fun.  So, to be financially responsible, rather than buy more expensive ammo in another caliber, I'll just shoot what I have.

Quoted: I don't know about ammuniton futures, but you might want to watch ATK. Thats the stock symbol for the parent company of Federal Ammunition. They are a huge defense contractor. I'm sorry to say I almost bought it the other day when it was 99/share, 2 days before their earnings announcement. Now its like 114 or something and its holding its own in a market thats dropping. Another related stock is LLL, they own EoTech but are also much larger than that.

I was watching ATK as well.  I liked Aug 2's breakout on 4x volume.  I was going to buy it  when it broke out, but bought Stanley (SXE) instead, which also is a defense/government contractor (they do passport processing).  This is SXE first breakout whereas ATK had two others.  

IBD ranks ATK as:

Overall = A+
EPS = 85
RSI = 87
Industry = A+
Accum/Distrib = B+

Lots to love about ATK.   I put it on my watch list.  This volatility has offered some really good opportunities, like AMZN.  Although it seems the good stocks are falling and the dogs are  rising.  

BTW - it is now back to $107.

Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: You would get a better return buying ammo.   Pretty soon, Ammo will be too expensive to shoot. I disagree and just DUMPED my 8mm stach on the market I forsee ammo prices going down within the next 5 months! Hope you're right.  On what do you base this?  Maybe we need to start trading ammunition futures.

I'll trade any futures I can find!

My base is as follows- There is surplus ammo around the world. The quantity is pretty consistent. I dont think the amount of surplus increases nor decreases. It simply cycles into the market and is replaced by newer "surplus"

With that being said, the majority of the small arms ammunition would find its way to developed countries because neither the EU nor the UN see any point in allowing it to be sold to Somalia, Indonesia and the like.. They would rather see it go to stable countries like the US. This gets the ammunition off the market and also returns maximum value.

Everyone keeps complaining about a decline in surplus but I forsee war demands for ammo declining and excess being dumped onto the domestic market. We shall not pay high prices for ammo much longer..

But your results may vary

Thanks Mike, I'll look at SXE.

Maybe we'll get lucky and ATK will take one more correction. I really don't thing anything short of a complete pullout of our troops will hurt the stock in the long run.

Yep, metals prices are like gonna stay high with China and India growing like they are. They've got their own little industrial revolutions going on and are consuming a lot of commodities.

ATK is featured in Investors Business Daily (IBD) today.  That is usually a good sign for the stock.  I'm getting hammered on the stocks that I own.  UGH.

BY BRAD KELLY INVESTOR'S BUSINESS DAILY Posted 8/14/2007 Alliant Techsystems (ATK)  is the epitome of a smart shopper. As recently as June, the defense contractor has made purchases that enhanced its position in its markets. After it was spun off in 1990 from Honeywell, (HON) it spent the first five years struggling. It was forced to lay off employees. But Alliant would soon go on the offensive. It never bought a firm just for the sake of buying it. Each purchase it made improved its pipeline, and in some cases, made it a market leader. "When we were spun off, the focus was on the Cold War and building torpedoes," said company spokesman Bryce Hallowell. "But we knew that was not a sustainable business." Alliant, known in the industry as ATK, sought out targets that would either diversify its portfolio or build on its core businesses. But it was mandatory for the targets to be strong growth prospects. In 1995, it bought Hercules' (HPC) aerospace unit for $412 million. The addition eventually made the company the world leader in making solid rocket motor systems. Nearly six years later, it acquired the commercial ammunition businesses of Blount International. (BLT) This helped ATK become the nation's largest maker of medium- and small-caliber ammunition. Shopping Spree This summer, it continued its decade-long shopping spree by snatching up satellite maker Swales Aerospace. ATK has made more than a dozen buyouts in the past decade. Its product line now reads like a yellow pages listing. It makes ammunition, precision-guided weapons, force protection systems, satellite components and rocket motors. It serves the U.S. government and its allies as well as some commercial clients. The company's businesses fall under one of its three segments: ammunition, launch and mission systems groups. ATK's buyouts are partly responsible for the success of each group. Peter Arment, analyst at JSA Research, said its basket of acquisitions transformed an obscure component provider into a prime defense contractor. "Not only did it improve its portfolio pipeline and its net worth to its clients," Arment said. "But the timing of some of these was perfect." For example, the Swales purchase comes at a time when commercial satellites are on the rebound. The business suffered slow growth in last decade, he said. There is demand for new satellites to aid military intelligence for the war in Iraq, Arment said. But timing is just part of its success. ATK has a low cost structure, said analyst Howard Rubel of Jefferies & Co. Part of its strength is in its skill to improve on existing technologies. "It doesn't have the engineering overhead that rivals such as Lockheed Martin (LMT) and Raytheon (RTN) have. So, in turn, it can offer lower prices," he said. "That gives it a leg up when it is vying for government and commercial contracts." ATK has won business due to its expertise as well as outside factors. It's well poised to benefit from the war on terror, rising defense spending and growing NASA sales, Arment said. A few years ago, ATK was the third biggest U.S. maker of small ammo. It now owns 30% of the market and has climbed to No. 1 ahead of Winchester and Remington in that space, Hallowell said. Urban warfare in Iraq has forced the U.S. military to increase small ammunition training. The bulk of ATK's small caliber ammo is used for training, Hallowell said. "It's the Jessica Lynch effect and the jagged battle lines that exist in Iraq," he said. "Everyone in there, even truck drivers, have to know how to use a firearm." Homeland Security training for state and local police also has provided an uptick in ATK's ammunition segment. Sport hunting has added a shot in the arm as well. The company churned out 1.4 billion rounds of small ammunition in fiscal year 2007, which ended in March. That was up from 350 million rounds five years ago and a huge jump from 100 million rounds made in 2000. "The military market for our ammo will not continue to triple or quadruple. But it will be a sustainable margin business," Hallowell said. "But the civilian side of the business, bolstered by sport hunting, should continue to grow." ATK has utilized every opportunity to a public company, including acquisitions, stock buybacks and loans, said Herbert Hardt, director of research at Monness, Crespi, Hardt & Co. "No other public company has utilized being public better than Alliant," Hardt said. "Everything a public company can do, it did it well and that has produced higher levels of earnings." ATK's first-quarter profit rose 38% to $1.50 a share. Analysts expected $1.36. It's 16% sales increase to $958.4 million beat views as well. Top-line growth was balanced evenly among its three business groups. Each group accounted for about a third of total sales. "It was a blowout quarter with balanced growth, helped by some long-term contracts," Arment said. "This is especially true at its launch systems group, which is heavily weighted on NASA contracts." NASA Program In 2005, NASA said ATK would be the prime contractor for the first stage of the Ares I program. This is NASA's next-generation human space launch vehicle. Hallowell said this could be one of the largest, long-term deals in the company's history, worth $1.8 billion. "The NASA deal will create a continuous revenue stream for some time," Rubel said. "But this company is not a one-trick pony." ATK is a leader in advanced weapons. It provides the solid rocket motor propulsion for most of the nation's existing strategic and tactical missiles. It recently was selected to develop the precision guidance kit for U.S. military 155-millimeter howitzers. It will be a low-cost, precision-guided round for artillery that will expand its capability by giving it one-shot, one-kill performance. Rubel said the ongoing effort in Iraq as well as the larger war on terror should supply strong demand for ATK's advanced weapons. It also makes composites used to build planes. Composites, such as graphite and carbon fiber, make an aircraft lighter, resulting in better fuel efficiency. The whole industry seems to be headed in this direction. Boeing (BA) already unveiled its all-composite aircraft, the Dreamliner 787, earlier this summer. ATK expects growth at its composites business to triple in the next five years, Hallowell said.