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Posted: 12/29/2012 6:35:01 AM EDT
As an accountant this whole supply/demand curve regarding AR sales(hoarding) is an interesting study. I post the link below as a cautionary tale about the last AR sales frenzy:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/josh-sugarmann/the-collapse-of-the-ar-15_b_485957.html

Read it when you have the chance.

If you want to make a fast buck, do it now. This frenzy will not last. At some point the buyers will dry up and prices will stabilize, then drop. I can promise you this will happen. Classic, textbook case. There are more AR platform rifles in Texas than Iphone users. There are more firearms in Texas than all cellphones. There are enough privately owned firearms in Texas to arm every resident with two guns. Remember that.
Link Posted: 12/29/2012 6:48:09 AM EDT
Originally Posted By refidnasb:
As an accountant this whole supply/demand curve regarding AR sales(hoarding) is an interesting study. I post the link below as a cautionary tale about the last AR sales frenzy:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/josh-sugarmann/the-collapse-of-the-ar-15_b_485957.html

Read it when you have the chance.

If you want to make a fast buck, do it now. This frenzy will not last. At some point the buyers will dry up and prices will stabilize, then drop. I can promise you this will happen. Classic, textbook case. There are more AR platform rifles in Texas than Iphone users. There are more firearms in Texas than all cellphones. There are enough privately owned firearms in Texas to arm every resident with two guns. Remember that.


They are right about it being a boom bust thing, at least in the short term...  but they've got the cause and effect all backwards...  They make it out like the NRA intentionally makes bad things happen in order to drive gun sales...  Or that what the NRA says or supposed hype from gun makers or the tiny segment of gun press drives panic buying...  It is actually their liberal friends in the traditional news media that drive the frenzy, because a very large portion of the buyers in these panics are not traditional gun owners and therefore aren't in the NRA's normal communication channels and they most likely don't read Guns & Ammo or other gun mags either.  In fact I'd bet a lot of the people flocking to the gun stores and gun shows right now are first time gun buyers.  The only reason they know about the panic is what they've seen on CNN or MSNBC.  A lot of them probably aren't even in the FOX News demographic.
Link Posted: 12/29/2012 6:49:25 AM EDT
[Last Edit: 12/29/2012 6:50:21 AM EDT by TEXASROOTERSBROTHER]
This is like the title to a bond movie.

To many is never enough
Link Posted: 12/29/2012 6:54:42 AM EDT
Interesting, I hope they are right.  Hope ammo supplies return to normal too.  Have plenty for myself now, but eventually I will need more.
Link Posted: 12/29/2012 7:03:44 AM EDT
Taking gun advice from Josh Sugarmann is like taking medical advice from Jack Kevorkian.
Link Posted: 12/29/2012 7:15:11 AM EDT
IF we were talking about stocks, I would call this a blow-off top
Link Posted: 12/29/2012 7:17:35 AM EDT
You're using Huff Post as a source - seriously?   The first statement out of that article was BS (NRA responsible for boom in gun sales)...

IMO, your theory is based on nothing happening with regards to the recent renewed efforts to pass a new assault rifle ban (of any kind).  If your right and nothing passes, then yes - one stands to make some decent cash if you're willing to wait several years for the prices to start to come down so you can replace those rifles you sold.  However, the reality is that they will NEVER return to pre rush pricing.  If for no other reason than the cost of living going up.   If something is passed and you can still sell them, you stand to make 10 to 20 times your investment.  Look at those states that adopted state laws that mimicked the old ban - lower receivers (stripped) were selling for 700+ even though new ones were available for 79.00.  If that kind of demand were to be seen from the remaining states it would drive the price well above 1k for a stripped lower...  


Link Posted: 12/29/2012 3:54:21 PM EDT
[Last Edit: 12/29/2012 3:54:53 PM EDT by Boognish]
I'm biding my time, waiting for the next ban to fail.  Prices will drop on the used market.  MSRP will trend up to keep up with inflation, but dealers will have too much inventory to sell them for that.  I'm guessing the bottom will hit sometime during the summer of next year.

If it passes, (which is doubtful), we will see something like the machine gun market, where prices fluctuate.  They will spike at first, creep up over time and then have spikes and dips in price.   Before the '86 ban Full Auto BNIB MACs were going for around $200 (about $400 in today's money).  Now they are 12-15 times that.
Link Posted: 12/29/2012 4:04:37 PM EDT
I've already cashed in on the past two weeks.  It's all about figuring out how to cash in on the difficult times.
Link Posted: 12/29/2012 4:12:05 PM EDT
Originally Posted By refidnasb:
As an accountant this whole supply/demand curve regarding AR sales(hoarding) is an interesting study. I post the link below as a cautionary tale about the last AR sales frenzy:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/josh-sugarmann/the-collapse-of-the-ar-15_b_485957.html

Read it when you have the chance.

If you want to make a fast buck, do it now. This frenzy will not last. At some point the buyers will dry up and prices will stabilize, then drop. I can promise you this will happen. Classic, textbook case. There are more AR platform rifles in Texas than Iphone users. There are more firearms in Texas than all cellphones. There are enough privately owned firearms in Texas to arm every resident with two guns. Remember that.


I find that hard to believe.
Link Posted: 12/29/2012 4:19:14 PM EDT
[Last Edit: 12/29/2012 4:19:37 PM EDT by JMan04]
Originally Posted By pigmypuncher:
You're using Huff Post as a source - seriously?  The first statement out of that article was BS (NRA responsible for boom in gun sales)...




Amen to that, I believe what I get from huffpo as much as the crap i hear from comedy central and those newz guys.
Link Posted: 12/29/2012 4:57:43 PM EDT
Do we really need some article telling us the obvious?
Link Posted: 12/29/2012 6:47:24 PM EDT
It happened in 2008.  The gunshows ended up being packed with stacks and stacks of lowers they couldn't sell.
Link Posted: 12/29/2012 7:11:22 PM EDT
And this article was written

Posted: March 4, 2010 01:55 PM


Boy that guy is sure on top of things.
Link Posted: 12/29/2012 7:19:34 PM EDT
Originally Posted By SeanR:
And this article was written

Posted: March 4, 2010 01:55 PM


Boy that guy is sure on top of things.


Like I said, this has happened before. I posted that old story as a cautionary tale. Some it seems are treating this as a Cabbage Patch Doll, Tickle Me Elmo event. Hysteria and hoarding. A human condition. People behaving like the monkey primates that they really are. It's natural.
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