Quoted: Honestly the .40 and .357 Sig is the result of the '94 AWB. People were looking to get more bang for the buck while being limited to a 10 rd mag. I think if the AWB wasn't ever passed you would probably see more people with 10mm's then there are. There are 4 great defensive loads out there (heavy 9mm's, .357Sig, .40S&W and the .45acp) There is no need for a GAP. I think the 10mm will become more popular and the .45GAP will die a slow death just like the 44auto mag.
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I think the .40 is a direct result of the FBI picking a downloaded 10mm instead of a full-power one. A 10mm and .40 would have the same mag capacity, so I don't see how the AWB's 10-round limit has anything to do with that, but the .40 will always be more popular than the 10mm because its lower pressures allow it to be built on a 9mm frame instead of having to be beefier to handle full-power 10mms. The .40 has a place as a compromise between more rounds in a 9mm and bigger bullets in a .45, and I see it becoming more popular as prices come down.
I think .357 Sig is not more popular mostly because it's a bottleneck case, and also because the "light and fast" fad has died out as more people learn more about how wound ballistics really work. The trend back to bigger & heavier bullets could actually help the .45 GAP.
Whether or not the .45 GAP takes off will depend, IMHO, on whether or not pistols come out that take advantage of the size difference to be smaller than a .45 ACP gun, and whether or not users of current 9mm/.40 guns will trade up to the larger bullet if they do.
If a gun is available in both .45 ACP and .45 GAP there's no reason to pick the GAP since it doesn't offer any ballistic advantage and plenty of reasons to pick .45 ACP instead. A 1911 could be chambered for .45 GAP easliy, but who'd buy one?
But I would pick a Glock in .45 GAP with the same size grip as a Glock 23 in .40, because I think the Glock 21 in .45 ACP is too big for my hands. I'm not sure if I'd pick it over the .40 though. That would depend on how much I valued the the extra .05" and whether or not ammo selection picks up for the GAP.
I don't think it would be a big deal for the ammo manufacturers to start making GAP ammo (easier than making .357 Sig since they could use .45 ACP bullets without having to adjust for different velocities, unlike using 9mm bullets in .357 Sig). So if they commit to the idea I think the .45 GAP could live like the .357 Sig has (but never catch or replace .45 ACP) If the non-1911 users stick to .40s then I think it'll die out.