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Posted: 9/8/2004 11:38:02 AM EDT
[#1]
As far back as I can remember every election (with the exception of 1996 Clinton/Dole election) have been predicted by the poles as being neck and neck. With the exception of the 2000 election the voting results have always been much more slanted towards one cantidate than the polls have shown.
I think Bush is actually creaming Kerry alot worse than the polls are showing! |
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Posted: 9/8/2004 11:46:05 AM EDT
[#2]
really, I guess if they say 50 50 technically they can't be that wrong right?
That has to be a photoshop job for your avatar if not that would be cool. |
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Posted: 9/8/2004 11:46:49 AM EDT
[#3]
Well, I have been 90% accurate.
That should stand for something. SGat1r5 |
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Posted: 9/8/2004 11:48:56 AM EDT
[#4]
So you have accurately predicted 90% of elections. |
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Posted: 9/8/2004 11:50:17 AM EDT
[#5]
Yup And GWB WIll win this November by a LAND SLIDE. Sgat1r5 |
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Posted: 9/8/2004 11:50:53 AM EDT
[#6]
so you actually admitted that clinton was going to beat bush and dole?
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Posted: 9/8/2004 11:53:15 AM EDT
[#7]
A scientific poll (ramdon population sample, no leading questions) that samples atleast 1000 people is supposed to be accurate with about a 3-4% margin of error. Increasing the sampling to 5000 people is supposed to only decrease your margin of error by another 1%.
The polls we often hit around here are not scientific polls. The Times, Zogby(sp?) and similar polls are supposed to be scientific, hance pretty accurate. That's just about the only thing I remember from my college statistics class. |
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Posted: 9/8/2004 11:54:25 AM EDT
[#8]
Sadly, I did. I also predicted the 1984 Victory down to the fact the Dems would carry one state and DC. And that was at the age of 12. I have always been a political junkie. |
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Posted: 9/8/2004 12:00:09 PM EDT
[#9]
so how many states will GWB carry? |
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Posted: 9/8/2004 12:02:50 PM EDT
[#10]
Let me look at the polls a month from now after a debate or two. Only a fool would make a hard and fast prediction at this point. I will say I am seeing it shape up as a 54%, 43% Bush/Kerry split on the popular numbers. I predict a Bush win, and I predict Bush over 320 electoral votes. But I can't give you a firm breakdown yet as tow hich states go to whom.
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Posted: 9/8/2004 12:03:54 PM EDT
[#11]
No...that's the one I got wrong. Sgatr15 |
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Posted: 9/8/2004 12:05:16 PM EDT
[#12]
Guess I am thge fool.
GWB will take 45 states at least...and maybe California SGatr15 |
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