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Posted: 7/5/2005 2:05:29 PM EDT
[Last Edit: 7/5/2005 7:28:32 PM EDT by cm]
dang... and it's only July....NHC forcast TS Dennis to reach hurricane strenght sometime overnight between Wed night 7/6/05 and Thurs 7/7/05. While it is still east of jamaica now, initial path takes it over cuba. After that, we'll get a better idea of the final path, but initially it looks like possibly along south western florida towards anywhere from panhandle FL to LA. Here is the regular NHC link for ease of viewing.

Anybody in these areas had better complete their preparations if they haven't done so. It looks like this season will surpass last years with it's early start, and its going to be rough. Too bad, because its been almost a year since the hurricanes hit florida last year, and there are still areas where many homes still have debrie and blue roofs.

Is there any way to reactivate links from topics on the archiever server?

there were these two topic titles that had alot of good information from last year
AR15.COM :: Forums :: Topic :: What To Do BEFORE The Next Hurricane... and
AR15.COM :: Forums :: Topic :: How To SURVIVE Your Next Hurricane...

if someone could relink these or reactivate them, it would be appreciated.(sorry, not team member yet - economic reasons soon to be corrected)
Link Posted: 7/5/2005 2:07:43 PM EDT
damn these hurricanes. my home town (Pensacola) is still recovering from Ivan. Looks like we are going to get some of Cindy, and then Dennis. Cant these damn things go somewhere else?
Link Posted: 7/5/2005 2:17:07 PM EDT
Link Posted: 7/5/2005 2:19:53 PM EDT

Originally Posted By Anteverius:
damn these hurricanes. my home town (Pensacola) is still recovering from Ivan. Looks like we are going to get some of Cindy, and then Dennis. Cant these damn things go somewhere else?



YOU LIVE IN FLORIDA. Are you just figuring out now you get hit by these storms like clockwork?
Link Posted: 7/5/2005 2:21:45 PM EDT
Ha. I can do a Cat1 in a tent. Fuck you dennis, bring it!

Looters look out!
Link Posted: 7/5/2005 2:30:41 PM EDT
[Last Edit: 7/5/2005 2:31:01 PM EDT by vanilla_gorilla]

Originally Posted By captainpooby:
Ha. I can do a Cat1 in a tent. Fuck you dennis, bring it!

Looters look out!




These should be the (comparatively) easy ones this month.
Link Posted: 7/5/2005 2:35:56 PM EDT
I think that expecting hurricanes is something that everyone in FL expects, much like the mid west expects there to be tornados... however, the have as many hurricanes and of such intensities as last year is something that has been unusual, so give Anteverius a break.

for those whe DON"T KNOW what happened to Pensacola, check out the photo gallery of the Pensacola News Journel before you shug off a hurricane.

to captainpooby - remember your post from last year, happy hunting if you get the same trouble this year.....
Link Posted: 7/5/2005 2:37:23 PM EDT

Originally Posted By captainpooby:
Ha. I can do a Cat1 in a tent. Fuck you dennis, bring it!

Looters look out!



yeah..I am still a little nervous Pooby, Gung Ho you bastard, I hate these sumbiches.

Looks like I'm gonna be front row for Dennis (Destin)...I keep asking myself, what did I do?
Link Posted: 7/5/2005 4:18:33 PM EDT
Seriously, most people on the Gulf Coast don't need advice about riding out hurricanes
Link Posted: 7/5/2005 4:23:43 PM EDT
thanks for backin me up, cm. obviously, we will get hit by hurricanes in FL, but after Ivan, they need to go somewhere else. what are we at, like 3 or 4 tropical storms or hurricanes in less than a year just in the P'cola area
Link Posted: 7/5/2005 4:26:13 PM EDT
Damnit, who in Pensacola pissed Hurricane central off?

Geez, the Beach can't catch a damn break.

SG
Link Posted: 7/5/2005 4:29:34 PM EDT
You guys up in the panhandle got it bad last year with Ivan but we central Fl guys had three cross over us here.
These are just gonna be rain and wind. The big stuff will come later.
Link Posted: 7/5/2005 4:54:00 PM EDT
NOAA gives a landfall percentage of 0 to 19% for the Florida gulf coast from Tampa to Marco Island. I'm not worried.
Link Posted: 7/5/2005 4:54:23 PM EDT
We had 20 hours of hurricane force (75mph or greater) winds during Jeanne. Two weeks later we went through Frances. A lot of the area here is still trying to rebuild from last year, guess we're going to go through more this year.

I learned a LOT about what it takes to survive without power for most of a month.
Link Posted: 7/5/2005 4:58:33 PM EDT
Cat1,2,weak3, I am staying. Strong 3 maybe I will leave depending on which side it comes in on. Cat4 and 5 I will be heading north.
Link Posted: 7/5/2005 5:00:17 PM EDT
We are ALL DOOMED!!!! Im on the Gulf Coast. this isnt goin to be pretty, thats for sure.
Link Posted: 7/5/2005 5:04:33 PM EDT
Great, I work weekends as a hospital nursing supervisor just north of Lake Pochatrain.
Of course we go into "how bad can it get" mod, which is necessary, but all the suits wanting adventure really bugs me. I hope they stay home....
Link Posted: 7/5/2005 5:06:03 PM EDT

Originally Posted By RABIDFOX50:
NOAA gives a landfall percentage of 0 to 19% for the Florida gulf coast from Tampa to Marco Island. I'm not worried.



NOAA had Charley hitting north of Tampa..strike one.
NOAA had Frances going to Georgia or the Carolinas..strike 2.
NOAA had Jeanne going out to sea..she turned back and hit Florida.

Any questions?
Link Posted: 7/5/2005 5:07:35 PM EDT
I think I know why all the canes hit Fla. Its the smell coming from Tallyhassle Mack
Link Posted: 7/5/2005 5:08:08 PM EDT
Awwww Not a big deal (yet).
I'm in the bar. Call me when it gets close to Sarasota area.....
Link Posted: 7/5/2005 5:09:27 PM EDT
Beans...CHECK!
Bullets.....CHECK!
Batteries.....CHECK!

Ok, I'm good.

A good TS is good financial news for me. I work for govt and when I get called out for emergencies I get 2x time minimum, sometimes more.
Link Posted: 7/5/2005 5:11:48 PM EDT

Originally Posted By captainpooby:
Ha. I can do a Cat1 in a tent. Fuck you dennis, bring it!

Looters look out!



+1 A Cat 1 Cane' aint jack...
Link Posted: 7/5/2005 5:17:00 PM EDT
Memo to self: Never send guns to Don Quinnel for repair during hurricane season.
Link Posted: 7/5/2005 7:12:49 PM EDT
[Last Edit: 7/5/2005 7:26:45 PM EDT by cm]
Alright..... latest NHC forcast/advisory tonight has Hurricane Dennis CAT 3 with max winds of 100knots/gust 120knots by the time it hits CUBA on the 9th!

Still to early to tell where it will head, as its final tract will be influenced by TS Cindy. NHC pridictions currently have it staying around 100knot winds, but with the warm gulf waters, it could keep increasing in strenght.

(edited to remove speculation)
Link Posted: 7/5/2005 7:19:15 PM EDT
if that damn storm gets any stronger, i am going to be pissed. i just rebuilt my moms fence a couple of months agonafter Ivan, and i am not looking forward to doing that again. she had to come live with me for almost a month after Ivan, until she got power back
Link Posted: 7/5/2005 7:25:52 PM EDT
I think that the final path is still to early to tell, as it will be influenced by what TS Cindy does, but it look very scary, especially so early in the season....

As far as I can tell, it appears that most news agencies (and probably people also) are kind of blowing this off right now, as it seems off in the future, and it's final path hasn't been determined yet, but at least CAT 3 so early in the season?
Link Posted: 7/5/2005 7:28:02 PM EDT
Looks like its time to give the old Ryobi another torture test.
Link Posted: 7/5/2005 7:30:09 PM EDT
[Last Edit: 7/5/2005 7:32:19 PM EDT by WildBoar]

Originally Posted By MTUSA:

Originally Posted By captainpooby:
Ha. I can do a Cat1 in a tent. Fuck you dennis, bring it!

Looters look out!



+1 A Cat 1 Cane' aint jack...



Just a T storm that lasts a whole day.

There have already been a few microbursts worse than that this summer.
Link Posted: 7/5/2005 7:48:27 PM EDT

Originally Posted By Phil_A_Steen:
Memo to self: Never send guns to Don Quinnel for repair during hurricane season.



Are you talking about Don in Fort Myers? If so he is one great guy and your guns will be safe. I've known him for a number of years. One of the only true and honest guys in the biz down here. The man is a master at his craft.
Link Posted: 7/5/2005 7:49:16 PM EDT


Looking to update the sign to 2005.

Link Posted: 7/5/2005 7:50:32 PM EDT
[Last Edit: 7/5/2005 7:52:46 PM EDT by RABIDFOX50]

Originally Posted By NAKED-GUNMAN:

Originally Posted By RABIDFOX50:
NOAA gives a landfall percentage of 0 to 19% for the Florida gulf coast from Tampa to Marco Island. I'm not worried.



NOAA had Charley hitting north of Tampa..strike one.
NOAA had Frances going to Georgia or the Carolinas..strike 2.
NOAA had Jeanne going out to sea..she turned back and hit Florida.

Any questions?



Ok you got me there. Guess I'll start putting up the storm panels and refuel the genny!
We lived through Chuck, we will live through a little cat3.
BRING IT!

Seriously though, this time it's gonna suck. The wife is with child and I will be on patrol. At least we have the new house instead of the crappy condo during chuck.
Link Posted: 7/5/2005 8:11:39 PM EDT
Link Posted: 7/6/2005 1:33:10 PM EDT
Link Posted: 7/6/2005 2:37:29 PM EDT
5:45 pm eastern time - TS Dennis has now achieved hurricane status, about 1/2 day earlier than previously predicted. NHC predictions still say it may hit CAT 3, but some meteorologist are speculating atleast CAT 4 now.

Max power - I've seen some of the forcast paths moving it westward, but I think that it is still too early to say... The NHC still has a 5 day of the Pensacola area, but there are some models that put it in around Destin/Panama City. possibly further east, if the high to the east of FL gets broken down by TS Cindy enough. We'll need to see what is happening tomorrow, to get a better idea where it will go.
Link Posted: 7/6/2005 3:27:34 PM EDT
looks like i will be coming home to help my mom put the storm shutters up. i just hope it doesnt get serious ( cat 4 or 5). good luck to everyone in the predicted path
Link Posted: 7/6/2005 7:06:45 PM EDT
damn storm is getting stronger
Link Posted: 7/6/2005 7:16:57 PM EDT
Heads up Mobile and westward....

Man, we just got over hurricane season...here we go again.
Link Posted: 7/6/2005 7:50:25 PM EDT
My friends still in Pensacola are already requesting my home in Meridian as an evacuation point.
Link Posted: 7/6/2005 7:51:39 PM EDT
meridian might get dumped on too
Link Posted: 7/6/2005 7:57:58 PM EDT
For what its worth, the current path of Dennis is pretty close to Charley and Ivan's last year. At this point, I would say anyone in the panhandle area of FL all the way to LA is a possible target, so everyone should get your gas and other preparations done now, before everything disappears off the shelves. That way, even if it doesn't hit you, you'll be prepared for the rest of the season.

There's a lot more speculation now that it will make Cat 4, and possibly even Cat 5 by the time it hits landfall.
Link Posted: 7/6/2005 7:59:07 PM EDT

Originally Posted By Anteverius:
meridian might get dumped on too



Meridian got hit with Ivan, but nowhere near the devastation of Penscola. I evacuated for Ivan (was in Pcola then) and drove back through Meridian. Couldn't even compare. Penscola was a war zone.
Link Posted: 7/6/2005 9:08:38 PM EDT
Tag to keep an eye on you all!
Link Posted: 7/7/2005 7:11:21 AM EDT
The new computer models show a more eastward track. Two of the models show tracks following Charlie's path.
Anybody know where we can see last years predictions for Charlie at this time?

Link Posted: 7/7/2005 7:31:16 AM EDT
7/7/05 11AM NHC - hurricane watch issued for Florida Keys - Dennis is moving around a bit, and a lot of the computer models have it moving closer to the east, where it might scrub the west coast of FL if it follows that path, but, again, we'll have to wait another day or two for a better 3 day prediction.

Here is a like on accuweather of a comparison of dennis, charley and ivan. If anyone can save the picture and host it, it would be appreciated, as the picture will probably change shortly (i don't have a image server account setup yet to do it myself).
Link Posted: 7/7/2005 9:03:25 AM EDT
Everyone along the gulf coast need to simultaneously "draw down" on Dennis.... say.... on Sunday, about 1030 hours. What do you say coasters? You with me on this one?


Lawdog (Mobile, AL)
Link Posted: 7/7/2005 9:03:28 AM EDT

Originally Posted By cm:
7/7/05 11AM NHC - hurricane watch issued for Florida Keys - Dennis is moving around a bit, and a lot of the computer models have it moving closer to the east, where it might scrub the west coast of FL if it follows that path, but, again, we'll have to wait another day or two for a better 3 day prediction.

Here is a like on accuweather of a comparison of dennis, charley and ivan. If anyone can save the picture and host it, it would be appreciated, as the picture will probably change shortly (i don't have a image server account setup yet to do it myself).



Not sure if the pic was updated, but this is how I found it.
http://ecm242.us/images/Canes/iws4.jpg
Link Posted: 7/7/2005 9:06:47 AM EDT

Originally Posted By lawdog:
Everyone along the gulf coast need to simultaneously "draw down" on Dennis.... say.... on Sunday, about 1030 hours. What do you say coasters? You with me on this one?


Lawdog (Mobile, AL)



how bout we also bring our fans and try to "blow" it away
Link Posted: 7/7/2005 9:06:57 AM EDT
BRING IT ON!!!!!!!!!



Link Posted: 7/7/2005 9:21:03 AM EDT

Originally Posted By Lockedon:
BRING IT ON!!!!!!!!!






the pensacola and gulf shores area is definitely not ready for another one of these damn storms. all of the demolition debris that is in piles on the beaches will get washed back into the sound, the trees that were weakened last year will fall, etc... not that i want anyone to have to go through a cane, but we certainly dont need it
Link Posted: 7/7/2005 9:32:45 AM EDT
Link Posted: 7/7/2005 10:22:02 AM EDT

Originally Posted By captainpooby:
The new computer models show a more eastward track. Two of the models show tracks following Charlie's path.
Anybody know where we can see last years predictions for Charlie at this time?




Yes, they were calling Tampa to evac and get ready.

I am in Destin, which will be front row if this follows the NHC track. I would guess it will recurve towards Apallachicola though...just a guess.
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