This is the day we all have been waiting for. We are sharing
these results with you BEFORE the polls close. Only a few more
hours to see how this experiment plays out. We thought long
and hard about whether to release these numbers prior to the
polls closing. Obviously we decided to send it to our loyal
community, but not release this to the press.
We did not want to influence voting behavior and news of a
landslide might depress voting turn out.
Believe it or not, there are still some undecided voters as
of last night. We were up all night crunching the numbers.
Over 23,000 people participated in this week's national poll.
Thank you all.
The winner by a significant margin will be George Bush.
When it is all said and done, Kerry will have lost for one
basic reason; HE COULD NOT HOLD ONTO HIS BASE! Black voters
practically were unanimous for Clinton. But Bush doubled his
support amongst this group. Even the life-long Democratic black
mayor of East St. Louis, Carl Officer switched over to Bush.
As we have said all along, due to overwhelming responses, we
have decided to keep the community intact. We will have a special
issue outlining how we can all participate in meaningful ways
in the near future.
We have a lot of information to get to you today, so here we
go. One last VERY warm and personal word of appreciation to
each and every one of you who have helped make this such
a wonderful community. We have enjoyed beyond measure working
with you and look forward to moving forward.
Total number of polls filled out for dates 10/22-11/1:
N = 23,468 Margin of error, +/- .2%
........ Dem ........Ind ........ Rep .... Total
Bush ....1445 ...... 3932 ........ 7466 .... 12,843
Kerry ...7349 ...... 2446 ........ 231 .... 10,026
Nader ... 26 ...... 155 ........ 13 .... 194
Undec. .. 97 ...... 274 ........ 34 .... 405
Below we have the trends covering the last 4 weeks.
4 Weeks ...3 Weeks...2 Weeks. This Week Change
Bush ..... 48.7% .. 51.9% .. 54.0% ... 54.7% ... + .7%
Kerry ..... 47.8% .. 44.6% .. 42.0% ... 42.7% ... + .7%
Nader ..... 1.0% .. .8% .. 1.0% ... .8% ... - .2%
Undecided . 2.5% .. 2.8% .. 3.0% ... 1.7% ... - 1.3%
You can see that Kerry's high watermark was 4 weeks ago after
the first debate. He has proceeded to implode, almost as if
he was following a script to lose. Even if ALL of the undecided
voters break for Kerry at the last minute, he cannot win.
Now we are going to take you a bit behind-the-scenes with
the numbers. We are taking the party-balanced numbers above
and re-balance them for CELL PHONE USE.
It is illegal to poll by cell phone and there are 6 million
households that EXCLUSIVELY use them. This means that
they do not have land lines and no poll EXCEPT THIS one will
balance for CELL PHONE users.
We also will predict below how the undecideds will break and
combine this with OTHER third parties (Libertarian, Constitution
Party, Green, etc.) Cell phone users break FOR Kerry as do
Here is what we found. After balancing all of these factors:
cell phone users, other third parties, and undecided, below is
our prediction for the NATIONAL numbers:
************** Bush .... 51% of the national vote
************** Kerry .... 47% of the national vote
************** Nader .... 1% of the national vote
************** OTHER .... 1% of the national vote
The next President of the United States:
George W. Bush
One MAJOR Caveat: There are an estimated 30 million NEW
registered voters in the country. We did NOT poll or
balance toward this huge pool. IF these break for Kerry in
a major way, we could be wrong.
We are predicting a significant win for Bush in the popular
vote. We also will be going on the limb and predict the
following states will go for Bush:
Pennsylvania .... Ohio ... Florida ... Iowa ...Arizona
Many of these are needed for Kerry to win the electoral
Kerry has the following states safely in the win column:
Illinois ... New York ... Massachusetts ... Delaware
We are not calling every state. Some of our numbers by
state are too small to really predict. California is
closer than many think, but will slide for Kerry.
The electoral vote for Bush will exceed 300.
Only Zogby is predicting a Kerry win. We shall soon see.
The Bookies usually predict the outcome better than the
polls taken. Bookies have more to lose if they are wrong.
The polls have nothing to lose. Latest line in the USA-Bush
59% Kerry 41%; London Bookies have Bush 2 to 1. I've never
bet nor played a lottery but I know Bookies don't like to
lose money and don't care who wins the election as much at
a pollster does. Let's see who has it right this year, the
Bookies say Bush! -Dave