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Posted: 8/18/2004 2:54:08 PM EST
Could be for real- who knows. Makes for interesting reading, though....

The 'Chatter' Goes Quiet

Aug 18, 2004 1912 GMT
web2.stratfor.com/news/2004TER/Story.neo?storyId=234096&pid=B

Sources within the U.S. intelligence community have confirmed that the
"chatter" among Islamist militants - which dropped significantly after the
arrest of alleged al Qaeda communications officer Mohammed Naaem
Noor Khan three weeks ago - remains nearly silent. There are a number
of possible explanations - and consequences - of al Qaeda cutting back
its communications:

# The recent series of arrests in Pakistan and Britain - undoubtedly
carried out with U.S. intelligence support - are effectively impeding al
Qaeda operations. This possibility might suggest that al Qaeda has
suffered significant losses and as a result operatives and agents are
not available to contribute to the "chatter." It is also possible the cell
that was broken up with the string of arrests was the only one the United
States was able to reliably gather intelligence on and its members are
largely in custody.

# The second possibility is that al Qaeda has curtailed communications
because it is on the brink of an attack. Immediately before the Sept. 11
attacks, the level of communications intercepted by U.S. intelligence
dropped precipitously. When close to an attack, al Qaeda would likely
increase its operational security - and go quiet - in order to not be stop-
ped. A failed attack would be far worse for the group than an aborted
attack.

# The third possibility is that - in the wake of Khan's arrest - al Qaeda
is re-evaluating its operational security and has called for silence until
another communication network can be created. This is similar to what
happened in the late 1990s when information was leaked - a leak that
drew criticism from the 9/11 Commission - that al Qaeda cell phones
had been compromised by U.S. intelligence. Al Qaeda simply stopping
using its cell phones and adapted communication methods that were -
at the time - unknown to intelligence agencies.

If the first possibility were true, it would suggest that al Qaeda has been
severely compromised by the war on terrorism, which would call into
question the operational capabilities of al Qaeda - likely a far too opti-
mistic interpretation of the current silence.

The second possibility - of an imminent attack - cannot be ignored. U.S.
intelligence officials believe the August-to-October period is the likely
period for an attack against U.S. soil, and previous major al Qaeda
operations have occurred in that time frame, including Sept. 11, the
attack on the USS Cole (Oct. 12, 2000) and the Bali bombings (Oct. 11,
2002). A number of events will be occurring in the next few months that
could be ripe for an attack - and Ramadan begins in October. Ramadan
often inspires fervor even among traditionally non-practicing Muslims
and can possibly increase the fervor of those already prone to extrem-
ism. Though there are some major gatherings that could be targets, -
the Republican National Convention in late August or the U.N. General
Assembly that convenes on Sept. 14 in New York City for example - al
Qaeda has not shown an inclination to attack a specific event, because
it would mean confronting heightened security measures.

The third possibility - that operations against al Qaeda have met with
some success and have forced the organization to re-evaluate its sec-
urity posture - is the most probable. Al Qaeda likely is adapting to a
new environment - as it did when it learned its cell phones were comp-
romised - and U.S. intelligence probably will not be aware, at least at
first, when communication between al Qaeda operatives starts up again.

All of the possibilities are potentially viable, and only time will
reveal the
actual status of al Qaeda in the aftermath of the recent arrests.



Link Posted: 8/18/2004 3:03:43 PM EST
Didn't one of our great media outlets compromise our sources recently?

Methinkst either they are getting ready for something or have changed methods since the newspapers decided to go public with anything they can get their hands on.
Link Posted: 8/18/2004 3:04:39 PM EST
Maybe they are just plain scared ------------------ good.
Link Posted: 8/18/2004 3:20:23 PM EST
[Last Edit: 8/18/2004 3:23:41 PM EST by ultramagbrion]
I wouldnt be a bit surprised by a major strike.Something big and bloody.Ive been thinking for a few months now that if we were hit by a major disaster(hurricane) demanding major red cross and national guard attention that the country would be caught off guard.We have so many of our troops overseas and the majority of the countrys disaster aid workers in Florida,that a heavy hit ,like the WTC was, would probably stretch us to the breaking point. Im sure the capture of Noore Kahn has a little to do with it but I dont think that much.

I dont know,but I hope Im way off for everybodys sake.Maybe the gov is just hopeing the people will see that the arrests are doing some good.Maybe the chatter is about the same level as before and the gov is lying thru its teeth.

Buy more beans and bullets!!
Link Posted: 8/18/2004 3:21:37 PM EST
On my whiteboard at work I wrote the dates Aug 30/31 because that is when I have a gut feeling an attempted attack will come. I have no basis for this feeling but I've learned to at least acknowledge my gut feelings. I learned that lesson the hard way by ignoring a bad feeling in my gut that something was wrong shortly before I was jumped and beaten several years ago. These dates are less than 2 weeks away which unfortunately fits in with item number 2. I hope my gut feeling is wrong in this case.
Link Posted: 8/18/2004 6:00:30 PM EST
The fourth possibility, not mentioned in the article, is that AQ is simply trying to confuse us.

I definitely think they’ve become adept at spoofing us.
Link Posted: 8/18/2004 6:01:36 PM EST
I hope they haven't just found another way to communicate.
Link Posted: 8/18/2004 6:01:59 PM EST
[Last Edit: 8/18/2004 7:16:01 PM EST by Winston_Wolf]
… I’d like to believe their chatter is getting quiet due to attrition
Link Posted: 8/18/2004 6:03:16 PM EST
Link Posted: 8/18/2004 6:08:58 PM EST

Originally Posted By Greenhorn:
I hope they haven't just found another way to communicate.





Link Posted: 8/18/2004 6:19:01 PM EST
It must have shaken them to the core when the NY Times revealed that one of their top IS guys had been compromised by us.

I think they are staying low until they figure out a better way to communicate.

Imagine if the leftist media had told the Germans in WWII that we could decode their wireless messages?
Link Posted: 8/18/2004 6:37:23 PM EST
I hope they where hit hard and will not be able to recover and just start Fu#king up their ops from now on.

ilike9s
Link Posted: 8/18/2004 6:53:17 PM EST
A muslim "tet offensive" on the order not seen in this Country/US EVER! is a possibility,,,,Hell a muslime "iman" inAlbany a gosh damm religious leader caught trying to by two missiles,,and still no "Grand Support" for US from muslim leaders and or holy men in this Country/US! be ready form your patriot cells,,,keep it cool and low key tell nobody,,,,,they could have been/continuing to invoke a state of chaos/panic...........I've read on the net of groups of vets US wide having formed groups in the event of another WTC etc.........Militia might turn out to become a good name again!
Link Posted: 8/18/2004 7:02:04 PM EST
Hard to "communicate" when your hiding under a rock waiting for the next JDAMS to fall.
Link Posted: 8/18/2004 7:07:45 PM EST
Link Posted: 8/18/2004 7:13:46 PM EST
Maybe they converted to Christianity.
Link Posted: 8/18/2004 7:22:34 PM EST

Originally Posted By cyanide:
Maybe they are just plain scared ------------------ good.



Highly unlikely, but hey wishfully thinking is good!
Link Posted: 8/19/2004 11:10:41 AM EST

Originally Posted By ts zipper:

Originally Posted By cyanide:
Maybe they are just plain scared ------------------ good.



Highly unlikely, but hey wishfully thinking is good![BUD]


Not so wishful

After 911 and Afghanistan Osama, has to move on a continual basis, he was reported to have said (from intelligence agencies) that the pressure on him was intense. He still has a 25 million bounty on his head and can only "trust" the hardest core fanatics in his group. He has medical problems and needs medicine, this makes movement more difficult. They are scared, and so is he.
Link Posted: 8/19/2004 7:03:33 PM EST
I think they are using chat on assweb.net

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