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Posted: 9/15/2004 10:52:53 AM EST
[Last Edit: 9/15/2004 10:53:32 AM EST by Winston_Wolf]
... SWAG = Semi Wild Ass Guess

... Even a rough educated "guesstimate" would suffice.

... Another acceptable answer would be how many were manufactured (with serial numbers) since 09/13/94 (AWB was enacted)
Link Posted: 9/15/2004 10:54:09 AM EST
[Last Edit: 9/15/2004 10:55:53 AM EST by POWER03]
Bushmaster alone produced almost 40,000 in the year 2000 alone. There were 94,878 produced in 2000 total. So with sales just increasing every year, maybe a coupla million.
Link Posted: 9/15/2004 1:23:11 PM EST

Originally Posted By POWER03:
Bushmaster alone produced almost 40,000 in the year 2000 alone. There were 94,878 produced in 2000 total. So with sales just increasing every year, maybe a coupla million.



... Well, I guess one could expound a number based on an estimate what percentage of the market share was owned by Bushmaster and the 94,878 total for 2000

… I’ll see if I can’t come up with some algorithm to produce a reasonably defendable guess.
Link Posted: 9/15/2004 1:23:46 PM EST
I think I heard 40 million once....
Link Posted: 9/15/2004 3:53:17 PM EST

I think I heard 40 million once....


That's off by an order of magnitude, at least. The first ARs came out in the early 60s, so that would be about 40 years of production. So you'd have to have an average of a million a year. The figures above indicate around 100,000 a year, and if I have to guess, 2000 is probably on the high end of yearly production. Assuming 100,000 a year, thats still only 4 million.

Also, there was a study by the DOJ back in '94 that estimated that there were ~192 million guns in the US. Even adding another 30 or 40 million guns in the decade since then would mean that to get to 40 million guns, ~15% of all guns in the US would have to be an AR. ARs aren't that popular.
Link Posted: 9/15/2004 3:59:24 PM EST
Link Posted: 9/15/2004 5:24:44 PM EST
Yes, AR-15's were sold in the 60's, but were very rare in stores.

I would say, in the years since '94, the number of AR-15 type rifles in US civilian hands (yes, even counting neutered rifles), has probably tripled, maybe quadrupled. This is a SWAG.

Many people who said, "One of these days I might like to get an AR-15" saw what was happening and bought as soon as they could before they were totally banned. They liked the first one so much, they bought another, and another. They introduced their friends to these rifles, and they bought.

AR-15's were no longer on the back burner of "nice to have one of these days", but instead, "I MUST have one NOW!"

There are more makes and models, accessories, and such than ever before. There must be 25 grips alone on the market. Then rails, handguards, etc. Amazing!

We have had a wake up call. Those who still ignore it, well, what can you say?
Link Posted: 9/15/2004 5:27:48 PM EST

Originally Posted By A_Free_Man:

I would say, in the years since '94, the number of AR-15 type rifles in US civilian hands (yes, even counting neutered rifles), has probably tripled, maybe quadrupled. This is a SWAG.

Many people who said, "One of these days I might like to get an AR-15" saw what was happening and bought as soon as they could before they were totally banned. They liked the first one so much, they bought another, and another. They introduced their friends to these rifles, and they bought.



I can testify to that. When the ban first enacted, I thought "who the hell needs a rifle like that?"

I now have an ak style rifle, and I just bought #3 Ar rifle. My wife is ready to kill me.

There is two gun shows two weeks in a row here this weekend and next, who knows what I might bring back then!
Link Posted: 9/15/2004 5:27:54 PM EST
And now the $64,000 question: why aren't the owners of all those guns standing up for their rights
Link Posted: 9/15/2004 5:31:39 PM EST

Originally Posted By Winston_Wolf:
... SWAG = Semi Wild Ass Guess

... Even a rough educated "guesstimate" would suffice.

... Another acceptable answer would be how many were manufactured (with serial numbers) since 09/13/94 (AWB was enacted)



I have 12 of them..so lets add ours up!
Link Posted: 9/15/2004 5:31:42 PM EST
I'm guessing 2.5 to 3 million, including all the stripped lowers sitting in safes...
Link Posted: 9/15/2004 9:05:54 PM EST
+1 for between 2 and 3 million.
Link Posted: 9/15/2004 9:11:02 PM EST
How many does Michelle have and when does she become a team member?
Link Posted: 9/15/2004 10:47:37 PM EST
[Last Edit: 9/15/2004 10:48:52 PM EST by Troy]
Link Posted: 9/15/2004 10:54:52 PM EST
There were probably 150k made last year. Bushmaster alone made 75k last I heard.
Link Posted: 9/15/2004 10:55:40 PM EST

Originally Posted By CFII:
I think I heard 40 million once....



Thats AKs in the entire world.
Link Posted: 9/15/2004 11:01:35 PM EST

Originally Posted By Winston_Wolf:
... SWAG = Semi Wild Ass Guess




Sheesh, don't you know that SWAG=Scientific Wild Ass Guess.
Link Posted: 9/15/2004 11:07:52 PM EST

Originally Posted By GUNSFORHIRE:

Originally Posted By Winston_Wolf:
... SWAG = Semi Wild Ass Guess

... Even a rough educated "guesstimate" would suffice.

... Another acceptable answer would be how many were manufactured (with serial numbers) since 09/13/94 (AWB was enacted)



I have 12 of them..so lets add ours up!



Add 10 to that number for mine! I hope to get another "military style rack" to start filling up before the years end.

Hessian-1out!
Link Posted: 9/15/2004 11:10:54 PM EST

Originally Posted By Hessian-1:

Originally Posted By GUNSFORHIRE:

Originally Posted By Winston_Wolf:
... SWAG = Semi Wild Ass Guess

... Even a rough educated "guesstimate" would suffice.

... Another acceptable answer would be how many were manufactured (with serial numbers) since 09/13/94 (AWB was enacted)



I have 12 of them..so lets add ours up!



Add 10 to that number for mine! I hope to get another "military style rack" to start filling up before the years end.

Hessian-1out!

So far, we are talking a minimum of 40 on this thread alone.
Link Posted: 9/15/2004 11:40:54 PM EST
put me down for 3 of the few million out there, with 2 more to come when I move out of this commie state
Link Posted: 9/15/2004 11:45:25 PM EST
I have 6 all colt, buying a bushy and an armalite soon.
Link Posted: 9/15/2004 11:52:03 PM EST
Link Posted: 9/15/2004 11:58:49 PM EST
Link Posted: 9/16/2004 12:05:14 AM EST
I recently added six stripped BM receives to the six complete BMs I had. 12 from me. I will see how Colt handles their sales to us "civilians" before I buy anything from them. Probable buy four stripped LEO, AR15 marked receivers. Not sure.
Link Posted: 9/16/2004 12:13:07 AM EST
We will actually never know exactly how many rifles were produced because among the gun manufacturers the actual production numbers for the commercial market are highly guarded company secret. When ATF breaks out production figures they only mention the aggragate production of all companies.
Link Posted: 9/16/2004 12:30:02 AM EST
I used to have 5 AR's, but I lost one duck hunting, 2 fishing offshore, 1 while whitewater rafting, and yet my last while parasailing.

I have some really bad luck, but the nice thing is now that the ban is over I will be able to buy some new ones to replace the ones that are gone.
Link Posted: 9/16/2004 12:36:06 AM EST
Link Posted: 9/16/2004 2:53:42 AM EST
I'll bet that 139,000 of them have been sold as NIB blue label at least once......



Originally Posted By Troy:
Keep in mind that Colt was the ONLY AR manufacturer until the mid-80s when their patent expired, and they had made less than 140,000 civilian ARs between 1963 and 1986.

Link Posted: 9/16/2004 3:19:29 AM EST

Originally Posted By jblachly:
And now the $64,000 question: why aren't the owners of all those guns standing up for their rights


It appears that they have.
Link Posted: 9/16/2004 6:24:46 AM EST
Link Posted: 9/16/2004 6:51:40 AM EST
Not enough.
Link Posted: 9/16/2004 7:12:04 AM EST
The AR, the only gun where 10,000 people own 500,000 guns. And at least 1/2 of those have been lost at sea.
Link Posted: 9/16/2004 7:59:12 AM EST
Parasailing?


Bwahahahahahahahahahahahahahah­ahaha!
Link Posted: 9/16/2004 8:55:17 AM EST
We could all meet up together in Irag and give the terrorist all they can handle.
Link Posted: 9/16/2004 8:59:30 AM EST

Originally Posted By ElCapo:
I used to have 5 AR's, but I lost one duck hunting, 2 fishing offshore, 1 while whitewater rafting, and yet my last while parasailing.

I have some really bad luck, but the nice thing is now that the ban is over I will be able to buy some new ones to replace the ones that are gone.



Wow, you do have bad luck!
Link Posted: 9/16/2004 9:44:11 AM EST
[Last Edit: 9/16/2004 9:47:17 AM EST by nightstalker]
66.102.7.104/search?q=cache:J37SRwyvM4kJ:www.vpc.org/graphics/prod2002.pdf+atf+production+bushmaster&hl=en&lr=lang_en

Seriously, you could just call the VPC and they would likely have the information at their fingertips if you said you were writing a hit-piece.

Looks like Bushmaster made about 175K up to the year 2000. Colt was averaging about 30K per year (maybe a little more) till 2000. DPMS made 18K from '95-2000 and Armalite averaged about 5K per year from '95-2000. I'm sure they exceeded these number from 2000 on but it's a starting point.

Troy's guess seems in the ballpark. I'd guess we had about 500,000 by 2000.
Link Posted: 9/16/2004 9:50:55 AM EST
Link Posted: 9/16/2004 10:00:33 AM EST
[carl sagan] Billions and billions of AR's....[/carl sagan]
Link Posted: 9/16/2004 10:04:17 AM EST
I have 18. (so far) Not counting the M16 I have on the way.
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