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Posted: 5/10/2004 10:37:06 AM EST
Released: May 9, 2004
The Election Is Kerry's To Lose

By John Zogby

I have made a career of taking bungee jumps in my election calls. Sometimes I haven't had a helmet and I have gotten a little scratched. But here is my jump for 2004: John Kerry will win the election.

Have you recovered from the shock? Is this guy nuts? Kerry's performance of late has hardly been inspiring and polls show that most Americans have no sense of where he really stands on the key issues that matter most to them. Regardless, I still think that he will win. And if he doesn't, it will be because he blew it. There are four major reasons for my assertion:

First, my most recent poll (April 12-15) shows bad re-election numbers for an incumbent President. Senator Kerry is leading 47% to 44% in a two-way race, and the candidates are tied at 45% in the three-way race with Ralph Nader. Significantly, only 44% feel that the country is headed in the right direction and only 43% believe that President Bush deserves to be re-elected - compared with 51% who say it is time for someone new.

In that same poll, Kerry leads by 17 points in the Blue States that voted for Al Gore in 2000, while Bush leads by only 10 points in the Red States that he won four years ago.

Second, there are very few undecided voters for this early in a campaign. Historically, the majority of undecideds break to the challenger against an incumbent. The reasons are not hard to understand: voters have probably made a judgment about the better-known incumbent and are looking for an alternative.

Third, the economy is still the top issue for voters - 30% cite it. While the war in Iraq had been only noted by 11% as the top issue in March, it jumped to 20% in our April poll as a result of bad war news dominating the news agenda. The third issue is the war on terrorism. Among those who cited the economy, Kerry leads the President 54% to 35%. Among those citing the war in Iraq, Kerry's lead is 57% to 36%. This, of course, is balanced by the 64% to 30% margin that the President holds over Kerry on fighting the war on terrorism. These top issues are not likely to go away. And arguably, there is greater and growing intensity on the part of those who oppose and want to defeat Bush.

The President's problem is further compounded by the fact that he is now at the mercy of situations that are out of his control. While the economy is improving, voters historically do not look at indicators that measure trillions and billions of dollars. Instead, their focus is on hundreds and thousands of dollars. In this regard, there is less concern for increases in productivity and gross domestic product and more regard for growth in jobs and maintaining of health benefits. Just 12 years ago, the economy had begun its turnaround in the fourth quarter of 1991 and was in full recovery by spring 1992 - yet voters gave the President's father only 38% of the vote because it was all about "the economy, stupid."

The same holds true for Iraq. Will the United States actually be able to leave by June 30? Will Iraq be better off by then? Will the US be able to transfer power to a legitimate and unifying authority? Will the lives lost by the US and its allies be judged as the worth the final product? It is difficult to see how the President grabs control of this situation.

Finally, if history is any guide, Senator Kerry is a good closer. Something happens to him in the closing weeks of campaigns (that obviously is not happening now!). We have clearly seen that pattern in his 1996 victory over Governor Bill Weld for the Senate in Massachusetts and more recently in the 2004 Democratic primaries. All through 2003, Kerry's campaign lacked a focused message. He tends to be a nuanced candidate: thoughtful, briefed, and too willing to discuss a range of possibly positions on every issue. It is often hard to determine where he actually stands. In a presidential campaign, if a candidate can't spell it out in a bumper sticker, he will have trouble grabbing the attention of voters. By early 2004, as Democratic voters in Iowa and elsewhere concluded that President Bush could be defeated, they found Governor Howard Dean's message to be too hot and began to give Kerry another look. Kerry came on strong with the simplest messages: "I'm a veteran", "I have the experience", and "I can win". His timing caused him to come on strong at the perfect time. As one former his Vietnam War colleague of told a television correspondent in Iowa: "John always knows when his homework is due."

Though he is hardly cramming for his finals yet and is confounding his supporters, possible leaners, and even opponents with a dismal start on the hustings, the numbers today are on his side (or at least, not on the President's side).

We are unlikely to see any big bumps for either candidate because opinion is so polarized and, I believe, frozen in place. There are still six months to go and anything can still happen. But as of today, this race is John Kerry's to lose.

Link Posted: 5/10/2004 10:45:17 AM EST
And he will...
Link Posted: 5/10/2004 10:45:36 AM EST

Originally Posted By Red_Beard:
I have made a career of taking bungee jumps in my election calls. Sometimes I haven't had a helmet and I have gotten a little scratched.

That is a bit of an understatement.

The statistics in his article do not seem to back up his position. I think what he is trying to say is that he really, really wants John Kerry to win.
Link Posted: 5/10/2004 10:47:04 AM EST
Link Posted: 5/10/2004 10:49:26 AM EST
Kerry's biggest problem is the fact that he is BORING----besides the fact that he walks around as though he is smarter & better than everyone else.
Link Posted: 5/10/2004 10:53:52 AM EST
Smaple/Example Zogby Poll Question

Do you believe the honorable, President Elect John Kerry will be able to pull off a come-from-behind victory, or will the evil Mr. Bush use trickery to remain the President, possibly even stealing the election again?
Link Posted: 5/10/2004 10:58:35 AM EST
Zogby is an unabashed partisan.

He's coming out with articles like this to try and depress conservative voter turn out.

He did the same thing during the last midterm elections.

Only, it didn't work. Despite all the polls (Zogby's especially) showing full Democratic takeover of the Senate, that didn't happen. The conservative voters go to the polls and vote even if they don't see their guy winning.

This article is nothing by psyops.
Link Posted: 5/10/2004 10:58:37 AM EST

Originally Posted By imposter:

The statistics in his article do not seem to back up his position. I think what he is trying to say is that he really, really wants John Kerry to win.

You're right on the money with that statement.
Link Posted: 5/10/2004 11:08:35 AM EST
Link Posted: 5/10/2004 12:38:09 PM EST
Kerry has already lost the election.
Link Posted: 5/10/2004 12:47:29 PM EST
I heard Zogby on Hannity's radio show when I was on the road a month or so ago - he was already laying the groundwork for these "poll results & statistical predictions" then. When all else fails, cook the books...
Link Posted: 5/10/2004 12:48:39 PM EST

Originally Posted By RikWriter:
Kerry has already lost the election.

I really hope so.
Link Posted: 5/11/2004 9:15:05 AM EST
Zogby is an Arab. Enough said.

Link Posted: 5/11/2004 10:25:47 AM EST
This country will go to hell in a handbasket if that fruit wins.

Link Posted: 5/11/2004 10:30:12 AM EST
Link Posted: 5/11/2004 10:35:18 AM EST
If Zogby's pollsters call ANYWHERE but major cities in Blue states, I'd be shocked.
His poll results are almost always the inverse of Gallup polls issue in the same 2-3 days.

And Zogby was touting defeat of the CA Recall and a win for Bustamante if it went forward, and he was VERY wrong in both cases.
Link Posted: 5/11/2004 10:50:50 AM EST

Originally Posted By GunLvrPHD:
Zogby is an Arab. Enough said.


Yep. Not only that but awhile back he was on Bush's case to pull one of his campaign adds which had a "muslim" terrorist in a glimpse shot. I wouldn't trust his poll numbers anymore than CNN or any of the other typical lib sources.
Link Posted: 5/11/2004 11:10:55 AM EST
At about this time in George Herbert Bush's race against Dukakis, Dukakis was something like 20 points up in the polls! I don't recall a Pres. Dukakis!
Link Posted: 5/11/2004 4:48:23 PM EST

Election is Kerry's to lose

Isn't that what they said about Al Gore?
Link Posted: 5/11/2004 9:57:17 PM EST
I got the feeling that five guys in black ski masks just did Kerry in. Just reminded the country that what the Democrats have been screaming "ATROCITIES" about were really child's play.
Link Posted: 5/12/2004 7:28:43 AM EST
Does anybody really believe that Kerry is going to win this Nov.? The only difference between this election and Mondale's and Dukakis' is a couple of states, at most.

My .02.

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