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Posted: 9/16/2004 5:18:13 AM EDT
There is one interesting parallel between this election and the one on 2000. In the 2000 election, GWB had earned a comfortable lead going into the final weeks of the campaign. Democrats were second-guessing and making excuses for Gore, just as they do now for Kerr.

Then about a week before the election, the polls started to turn around. The gap between W and Al Gore got smaller and smaller as Election Day got nearer. I can remember watching the polls in those days and writing them off. I cheerfully bragged about "the fat lady singing." And then... we all know what happened on election night.

I firmly believe that people who call themselves "moderates" are in fact really liberals. They are liberals who stay undecided because they can't think through things clearly, and in the end make a non-decision based on "feelings." And more often than not, they vote Democrap.

I believe there is a very strong possibility that the "undecided moderates" will move to Kerry in the last week. The 2-5 point lead that W has right now could disappear very quickly.

Link Posted: 9/16/2004 5:21:22 AM EDT
Both campaigns are at this point speaking to their bases. The undecided vote has been very, very small for a long time now. There is a view out there among both campaigns now that many "undecided" voters are probably not going to vote at all.
Link Posted: 10/13/2004 2:00:32 PM EDT
Back to top because I think it's going to be important on 11-2.
Link Posted: 10/13/2004 2:08:51 PM EDT
Link Posted: 10/13/2004 2:10:09 PM EDT
Historically, almost all of the "undecided" vote goes to the challenger on election day. So Bush approval above 51% is a good sign for us... in the 49-50% range, it is going to be a squeaker. Below that, you are looking at a chance of Kerry winning.
Link Posted: 10/13/2004 2:13:34 PM EDT
Anyone who doesn't have a clue by now is not likely to get one anytime soon. Be better if they didn't vote.

AS for the 2000 election, Gore surged ahead only after dredging up the DUI charge on GWB just days before the elction. If not for that, FL wouldn't have even mattered.
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