When will AR prices drop?

[ARCHIVED THREAD] - When will AR prices drop?

Posted: 1/26/2009 5:36:12 AM EDT

Ok.. has everybody hoarded all the parts thy can afford? When the manufactures get "caught up" will all the buyers be spent out for additional future business? If no ban comes will you use Pmags to level the legs on your woorkbench? If the ban does show up, will you even be able to transfer the 40 stripped receivers you have been sitting on? This gamble is starting to look more risky than my 401K....Just a small rant (or warning).

Posted: 1/26/2009 5:38:24 AM EDT

[#1]

Who knows? I have two usually shotgun shooting friends tell me this week they picked up their first AR's and they love them!!!

Posted: 1/26/2009 5:40:35 AM EDT

[#2]

The day Obama leaves office and his Republican successor is sworn in.

Posted: 1/26/2009 5:41:45 AM EDT

[#3]

It's starting right now.

Prices going back down after the hoarding/panic.

Posted: 1/26/2009 5:42:58 AM EDT

[#4]

Probably when the Second Civil War starts - figure there will be lots of battlefield pickups and such. Considering that there will be no such thing as background checks and gun stores wont have to worry about overhead.....we should be able to pick them up at a reasonable cost - figure 4 chickens or a roll of toilet paper for a complete rifle.

I'm hoping that I'll be able to pick up some of those preban, post preban, postbans magazines here in NY for a decent trade of a toss in the hay with my sister if any of you are interested.

...in otherwords - how does one actually put "outlaw" on a resume anyways?

****

Seriously, prices will NEVER go down again...I bought my HK93 for $699 in 1989. I look back now and say "If I only knew then..."

Posted: 1/26/2009 5:43:30 AM EDT

[#5]

When supply is finally greater than demand again.

Posted: 1/26/2009 5:44:04 AM EDT

[#6]

Quoted:
The day Obama leaves office and his Republican successor is sworn in.

or maybe in 2010 if we can vote more pro-gun people into congress..

Posted: 1/26/2009 5:44:25 AM EDT

[#7]

Manufacturing is starting to catch up now and prices will start to plummet as the market becomes flooded.

Posted: 1/26/2009 5:46:43 AM EDT

[#8]

When Obama becomes humble.

Posted: 1/26/2009 5:47:52 AM EDT

[#9]

I dunno but if the gunshow I attempted to attend this weekend is any predictor I'd say it won't be anytime soon. There are usually 10 people at the door waiting to get in and a you have to shuffle through people to get to most of the tables. This weekend however there were over 100 people in line just to get in.

I don't even wanna know what it looked like inside but I wasn't going to stand in that line in the rain to find out.

Posted: 1/26/2009 5:50:14 AM EDT

[#10]

The big bump is over, and the market is somewhat saturated, but the manufacturers are still trying to fill previous orders. If we get no serious threats of legislation between now and May, I expect prices of both guns and ammo to fall considerably. If, on the other hand, the dems decide to play their hand with renewal of the AWB, you will see prices much higher than what we have now. Raw material prices (metals mostly) have come down a little, so that should help as well.

Posted: 1/26/2009 5:50:45 AM EDT

[#11]

http://www.ar15.com/forums/topic.html?b=1&f=5&t=798324

Posted: 1/26/2009 5:51:51 AM EDT

[#12]

When's the last time any law was actually repealed? If this new ban goes through, there won't be a sunset and even if we get a ton of Ron Paul's in office, that new AWB will not be repealed. The only way is lawsuits up to the Supreme Court and have them deem it UnConstitutional. And I doubt that will happen too.

And I wish I had purchased a warehouse full of imports back in 1988. If I only had the money back then.

Posted: 1/26/2009 5:52:55 AM EDT

[#13]

Quoted:
I dunno but if the gunshow I attempted to attend this weekend is any predictor I'd say it won't be anytime soon. There are usually 10 people at the door waiting to get in and a you have to shuffle through people to get to most of the tables. This weekend however there were over 100 people in line just to get in.

I don't even wanna know what it looked like inside but I wasn't going to stand in that line in the rain to find out.

Yup...........last years show here was no waiting, either day.

This year, Saturday , the line looped back and around again twice. I stopped counting at 300. Fracking crazy

But like mentioned already...........when supply outweighs demand.

Posted: 1/26/2009 5:53:52 AM EDT

[#14]

Next Thursday at 1527 hrs. Greenwich.

Posted: 1/26/2009 5:54:16 AM EDT

[#15]

Quoted:
When supply is finally greater than demand again.

+1

Posted: 1/26/2009 6:13:24 AM EDT

[#16]

Quoted:
When supply is finally greater than demand again.

Probably some time in 2010...................unless Pres Barry O and the Dim congress changes the laws sooner.

5sub

Posted: 1/26/2009 6:17:01 AM EDT

[#17]

Quoted:

Seriously, prices will NEVER go down again...I bought my HK93 for $699 in 1989. I look back now and say "If I only knew then..."

To be fair, the HK93 was not imported for than a few years here, and has been out of production for some time now, so I don't think that is a fair comparison. AR15 variants are still in production and domestic. It is true that price has risen dramatically, even for AR15s since 1989, even without Obama, just not to same degree as the HK93. I recently priced an HK93 that was selling for $2800.

Posted: 1/26/2009 6:19:01 AM EDT

[#18]

Go down??? Prices???

Posted: 1/26/2009 6:20:48 AM EDT

[#19]

Quoted:

Quoted:

Seriously, prices will NEVER go down again...I bought my HK93 for $699 in 1989. I look back now and say "If I only knew then..."

To be fair, the HK93 was not imported for than a few years here, and has been out of production for some time now, so I don't think that is a fair comparison. AR15 variants are still in production and domestic. It is true that price has risen dramatically, even for AR15s since 1989, even without Obama, just not to same degree as the HK93. I recently priced an HK93 that was selling for $2800.

Understood - but remember I'm from NY - preban AR lowers are going for upwards of $700 here.

Biden contacted the Mayor and Chief of Police from Miami yesterday (according to the Mayor & Chief) promising a new assault weapon ban after the AK related shooting.

Right now - take if from a "ban-stater" - don't stop buying.

Posted: 1/26/2009 6:28:53 AM EDT

[#20]

The thing is,as long as one is willing to wait the prices haven't gone up that much from the manufacturers so the price increase is really the secondary market and it's a qustion of how long that will hold. You don't HAVE to pay $300 for a DPMS lower or $700 for a Noveske if you'll just be patient and let the lower come to you.As soon as it isn't necessary to pay huge $ to have gun/parts NOW,the secondary value will drop...as long as the manufacturers don't go all Cheaper Than Dirt on us

Posted: 1/26/2009 6:40:23 AM EDT

[#21]

Quoted:
When's the last time any law was actually repealed?

You do know you used to have to have an FFL to mail order ammo, don't you ?

Posted: 1/26/2009 6:44:30 AM EDT

[#22]

Browsing gunbroker lately , there are alot of ARs on there. They are also not selling at the price being asked. Eventually they will have to drop them.

Posted: 1/26/2009 6:48:47 AM EDT

[#23]

Pessemistic: Buy now, ban coming
Optimistic: Wait, no ban coming, prices will come down.

I used to sail with optimisim. Then I lost my entire saving in the stock market (irrational exhuberance). A little rationalism would have done me good.

Plan for the worst. If it does happen, you're prepared. If it doesn't, well you have a lot of ARs (a good thing) Only downside is paying more now to guarantee you'll have it.

I would like to personally thank Obama for the following:

1. Setting the fire under me to get going on some builds
2. Appreciating quality work more (if this will be banned, I better treat it best I can)
3. Supporting the firearm industry

Posted: 1/26/2009 6:54:59 AM EDT

[#24]

When the supply of AR-15's increases in relation to the demand for them. Or, when the demand for them decreases in relation to the supply. One or the other (same thing, really).

Posted: 1/26/2009 6:56:05 AM EDT

[#25]

Late to the party....eh?

Posted: 1/26/2009 7:01:10 AM EDT

[#26]

Quoted:
Probably when the Second Civil War starts - figure there will be lots of battlefield pickups and such. Considering that there will be no such thing as background checks and gun stores wont have to worry about overhead.....we should be able to pick them up at a reasonable cost - figure 4 chickens or a roll of toilet paper for a complete rifle.

I'm hoping that I'll be able to pick up some of those preban, post preban, postbans magazines here in NY for a decent trade of a toss in the hay with my sister if any of you are interested.
...in otherwords - how does one actually put "outlaw" on a resume anyways?

****

Seriously, prices will NEVER go down again...I bought my HK93 for $699 in 1989. I look back now and say "If I only knew then..."

pics of sister plz.

Posted: 1/26/2009 7:07:01 AM EDT

[#27]

Quoted:
The thing is,as long as one is willing to wait the prices haven't gone up that much from the manufacturers so the price increase is really the secondary market and it's a qustion of how long that will hold. You don't HAVE to pay $300 for a DPMS lower or $700 for a Noveske if you'll just be patient and let the lower come to you.As soon as it isn't necessary to pay huge $ to have gun/parts NOW,the secondary value will drop...as long as the manufacturers don't go all Cheaper Than Dirt on us

This. Also consider that the Dems will not want to lose any super-majorities in either house. I'm not sure a ban will even make it out of committee for a vote. Any radical ban would most likely result in the Democrats losing seats. My guess is that, due to precarious balance of power in DC, we may not even see a ban. At least not for the first two years.

Posted: 1/26/2009 7:17:15 AM EDT

[#28]

Quoted:

Quoted:
The thing is,as long as one is willing to wait the prices haven't gone up that much from the manufacturers so the price increase is really the secondary market and it's a qustion of how long that will hold. You don't HAVE to pay $300 for a DPMS lower or $700 for a Noveske if you'll just be patient and let the lower come to you.As soon as it isn't necessary to pay huge $ to have gun/parts NOW,the secondary value will drop...as long as the manufacturers don't go all Cheaper Than Dirt on us

This. Also consider that the Dems will not want to lose any super-majorities in either house. I'm not sure a ban will even make it out of committee for a vote. Any radical ban would most likely result in the Democrats losing seats. My guess is that, due to precarious balance of power in DC, we may not even see a ban. At least not for the first two years.

The first item on the agenda is closing the "gunshow loophole" I seriously think they the Anti's are loving all this AWB hype so they can get gunshow restrictions in first without us noticing too much.

All the "gunshow loophole" bill I have seen do not seek to only end private sales, but to regulate gunshows in general , making them less likely to happen. Also infringing on our first amendment rights.

Posted: 1/26/2009 7:17:20 AM EDT

[#29]

Attending a local arms show this weekend found only a dozen or so 'black rifles'. There were 3 Bushmasters, one of which was an older BFI for a measely $895. The other 2 were both m4 configurations for $999 tax included! There was one m4 built on a SunDevil lower that was just exquisite! Again, $999 tax included. The rest were DPMS and a Stag. The prancing pony guns were off the wall at $1795 before taxes.

There were only 3 complete upper units and a couple of lowers units with internals and buttstocks. NO SMALL PARTS! No BCG's LPK's . Lots of rails and accessories like lights and sights. A few magzines.

No apparent shortage of ammunition if you wanted 55gr 5.56 or 123gr 762x39. $450/1000.

For those of you with SunDevil lower units...WOW! Very nice.