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9/22/2017 12:11:25 AM
Posted: 8/13/2005 2:37:48 PM EDT
[Last Edit: 8/13/2005 2:38:11 PM EDT by kingfish]
..will it be just a "precision" air attack, or will it be ground troops moving in?

Are we stretched too thin for a ground invasion? Intel reports state that Iran has built up its forces on the Iran/Iraqi border, so an airstrike in those particular areas is inevitable.

What are possible (realistic) attack scenarios with what we have at our disposal.
Link Posted: 8/13/2005 2:39:37 PM EDT


Let Israel do it.


Link Posted: 8/13/2005 2:40:27 PM EDT
How about infiltrating their nuclear plant and having a meltdown. Turn the place into another Chernobyl.
Link Posted: 8/13/2005 2:40:59 PM EDT
Hopefully we just let Isreal take care of the situation,

Our troops seem to be stretched kinda thin right now.
Link Posted: 8/13/2005 2:44:01 PM EDT

originally posted by CZ75_9MM:

How about infiltrating their nuclear plant and having a meltdown. Turn the place into another Chernobyl.





Originally Posted By The_Macallan:

Let Israel do it.




Combine the two ideas and you have the perfect solution.

HS1
Link Posted: 8/13/2005 2:46:39 PM EDT

Originally Posted By The_Macallan:

Let Israel do it.





Are you talking about just having them take out the reactors? Do you think they could do it without outside support? It's an awful long way from home.
Link Posted: 8/13/2005 2:49:09 PM EDT
I think our guys are tired of taking on infiltrators. They would love to take on troops lined up. Nothing like an artillery barrage.

But I think Iran will wait for President Rice.
Link Posted: 8/13/2005 2:50:46 PM EDT
It seems recent intel says they have split their program into 8 different sites all located deep underground (lesson learned from the Iraqis) , so a "chernobyl" doesnt seem likely to stop them.
Link Posted: 8/13/2005 3:08:12 PM EDT
Bombs away.
Link Posted: 8/13/2005 3:08:55 PM EDT
Bombs I'm sure, ground war = a draft I think.
Link Posted: 8/13/2005 3:09:51 PM EDT
Field testing of the UCAV?
Link Posted: 8/13/2005 3:10:33 PM EDT

Originally Posted By SS109:


But I think Iran will wait for President Rice.




God I hope so...Hitlery scares me..
Link Posted: 8/13/2005 3:15:00 PM EDT
Bombing the crap out of the cooling tower and primary containment building of their Heavy Reactor, before it is loaded with fuel / goes 'Hot' in October.
Maybe some munitions on their munitions labs.

Ought to go for a decapitation strike on the Mullahs, but I doubt it will happen.
Link Posted: 8/13/2005 3:16:05 PM EDT

Originally Posted By kingfish:
..will it be just a "precision" air attack, or will it be ground troops moving in? Are we stretched too thin for a ground invasion? Intel reports state that Iran has built up its forces on the Iran/Iraqi border, so an airstrike in those particular areas is inevitable. What are possible (realistic) attack scenarios with what we have at our disposal.

It will be a ground invasion with precision attacks before, during, and after. We're not stretched too thin at all. Iran was able to fight Iraq to a standstill, at best. It'll be eisier to steamroll Iran because we've already got a lot of men and material pre-positioned in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Terrorist attacks, as annoying and headline grabbing as they are, cannot even slow down a US military invasion. The Iranian military is feeble because Iran doesn't have a fully-functional economy. Once we take their oilfields, they've got nothing and they won't have the USSR or Red China to fall back on.
Link Posted: 8/13/2005 3:17:16 PM EDT

Originally Posted By C-4:

Originally Posted By The_Macallan:

Let Israel do it.





Are you talking about just having them take out the reactors? Do you think they could do it without outside support? It's an awful long way from home.



One word. Osirak.
It's been done before.
Link Posted: 8/14/2005 1:32:20 AM EDT
Remember, the object here isn't to take over and hold Iran. This won't be another Iraq type of operation.

All that's needed here is to deny them the capacity to create nuclear weapons. We don't even have to take out the whole system (though we would likely try). But essentially all that would be necessary to stop them is to destroy just 1 critical development facility. By just knocking out one of the critical components required to make nukes, then they can't make the bomb.

IMHO, we'd go after the above ground facilities with JDAMs and/or cruise missiles and use the 30,000 lb deep penetrating MOAB's we've been testing for the past year on the deep underground targets. I think we are capable of launching a strike that in one night can either cripple the Iranian nuclear development or at the least set them back a number of years, which will buy us more time for a better answer later.
Link Posted: 8/14/2005 2:28:40 AM EDT

Originally Posted By rayra:
Bombing the crap out of the cooling tower and primary containment building of their Heavy Reactor, before it is loaded with fuel / goes 'Hot' in October.
Maybe some munitions on their munitions labs.

Ought to go for a decapitation strike on the Mullahs, but I doubt it will happen.



The reactor the russians are building at Bushehr is a light water reactor. The Iranians are building their own heavy water reactor outside of Arak, but it is not due to come online until 2009. You are confusing the two projects.

Secondly, the light water reactor is not our real concern. It is their uranium enrichment plant and uranium conversion plant that pose the danger of proliferation.

In 2008, we can start worrying about the heavy water reactor they are constructing in Arak.
Link Posted: 8/14/2005 2:30:06 AM EDT

Originally Posted By Charging_Handle:
Remember, the object here isn't to take over and hold Iran. This won't be another Iraq type of operation.

All that's needed here is to deny them the capacity to create nuclear weapons. We don't even have to take out the whole system (though we would likely try). But essentially all that would be necessary to stop them is to destroy just 1 critical development facility. By just knocking out one of the critical components required to make nukes, then they can't make the bomb.

IMHO, we'd go after the above ground facilities with JDAMs and/or cruise missiles and use the 30,000 lb deep penetrating MOAB's we've been testing for the past year on the deep underground targets. I think we are capable of launching a strike that in one night can either cripple the Iranian nuclear development or at the least set them back a number of years, which will buy us more time for a better answer later.



And you would be wrong.

Read my post here:

www.ar15.com/forums/topic.html?b=1&f=5&t=379320
Link Posted: 8/14/2005 2:39:48 AM EDT

Originally Posted By TheRedHorseman:
Field testing of the UCAV?




Ohhh gawd that would be awesome. Imagine a squadron of them flying CAP and a bunch setup as attack aircraft doing a high speed strike, follow up with some CALCMs. Why bother sending troops, we dont need to occupy just give em a bloody nose.
Link Posted: 8/14/2005 2:48:21 AM EDT



Let the Air Force do it.

I don't want to go to Iran, I'm planning a vacation...



Originally Posted By Charging_Handle:
Remember, the object here isn't to take over and hold Iran. This won't be another Iraq type of operation.

IMHO, we'd go after the above ground facilities with JDAMs and/or cruise missiles and use the 30,000 lb deep penetrating MOAB's we've been testing for the past year on the deep underground targets.



Mail them a bunch of BLU-118/B units, the easy way.
Link Posted: 8/14/2005 2:54:03 AM EDT
[Last Edit: 8/14/2005 2:55:12 AM EDT by glockguy40]

Originally Posted By tweeter:


Let the Air Force do it.

I don't want to go to Iran, I'm planning a vacation...



Originally Posted By Charging_Handle:
Remember, the object here isn't to take over and hold Iran. This won't be another Iraq type of operation.

IMHO, we'd go after the above ground facilities with JDAMs and/or cruise missiles and use the 30,000 lb deep penetrating MOAB's we've been testing for the past year on the deep underground targets.



Mail them a bunch of BLU-118/B units, the easy way.



Apparently, no one seems to understand our window for bombing is rapily closing. If we are going to do it. Right now, this very minute, is when we should be doing it. But, since we have to do our little diplomacy dance, we are going to lose that window of opportunity.

It will be too late to stop them with bombing by the time we get to it.
Link Posted: 8/14/2005 3:23:32 AM EDT

Originally Posted By glockguy40:

Originally Posted By Charging_Handle:
Remember, the object here isn't to take over and hold Iran. This won't be another Iraq type of operation.

All that's needed here is to deny them the capacity to create nuclear weapons. We don't even have to take out the whole system (though we would likely try). But essentially all that would be necessary to stop them is to destroy just 1 critical development facility. By just knocking out one of the critical components required to make nukes, then they can't make the bomb.

IMHO, we'd go after the above ground facilities with JDAMs and/or cruise missiles and use the 30,000 lb deep penetrating MOAB's we've been testing for the past year on the deep underground targets. I think we are capable of launching a strike that in one night can either cripple the Iranian nuclear development or at the least set them back a number of years, which will buy us more time for a better answer later.



And you would be wrong.

Read my post here:

www.ar15.com/forums/topic.html?b=1&f=5&t=379320



I don't see where anything you said makes me "wrong". You are talking about time tables. I am talking about strike options.

More recent intelligence from the Israelis has moved things back a bit. They believe it will be a few more years before they are capable of constructing a bomb. Possibly as far out as 2012. If anyone knows, it's the Israelis. Their lives and nation depend on knowing.

As I said before, it takes a variety of processes to make a bomb. Knock out a critical element to that process and you've just set back their program. Knock out multiple processes and it might take them a decade or more to recover, if at all.

We've still got a little time to work with here. Therefore I don't think we've "gotta go" right this minute. OTOH, if we are gonna try diplomacy first, we need to get that started. And if they start stalling, light their ass up. While we do have some time, we don't have a surplus. Therefore we can't afford to allow them to stall and buy enough time to get where they want to go.
Link Posted: 8/14/2005 3:42:30 AM EDT
[Last Edit: 8/14/2005 3:46:21 AM EDT by glockguy40]
My point is, they will be pass the point of no return shortly (that being having enough feedstock to make enough enriched uranium for several bombs), and then, bombing them will no longer be a matter of preventing them from having nukes, but about how many nukes they will be allowed to have

I wasnt saying that they would have them right away after they got this feedstock material, I said it would take them 3 to 5 years to enrich it, which is in line with the time tables the israelis are quoting. They said by 2008 to 2010 Iran would be nuclear.

If we dont bomb them now, there is no stopping them from this point on. We can only limit how many nukes they will be allowed to make.

But, once they verifiably have nukes, they can then rebuild their facilities and threaten to nuke whether attempts to bomb them again.

YMMV.... I hope I am wrong. But I dont think I am.
Link Posted: 8/15/2005 12:13:07 PM EDT
The best way would be to infiltrate a suitcase nuke into their main facility and blow it up making it look like Iran had a nuclear industrial accident.
Link Posted: 8/15/2005 12:15:47 PM EDT

Originally Posted By The_Macallan:

Let Israel do it.





I suspect Iran learned some lessons from Osirak. I also don't think Osirak was operational yet. Blasting Iran's MULTIPLE plants could result in several small Chernobyls. It just isn't likely to happen. I think our chance to contain Iran has slipped away.
Link Posted: 8/15/2005 12:17:42 PM EDT
how about wait and see...
Link Posted: 8/15/2005 12:17:53 PM EDT
I hope nothing happens. If anything happens it will be hell on earth for every one involved.
Link Posted: 8/15/2005 12:21:05 PM EDT

Originally Posted By SS109:
The best way would be to infiltrate a suitcase nuke into their main facility and blow it up making it look like Iran had a nuclear industrial accident.



Israel and the U.S. would be blamed even if they really did have such an accident. We might as well not try to hide it.
Link Posted: 8/15/2005 12:36:38 PM EDT

Originally Posted By SS109:
The best way would be to infiltrate a suitcase nuke into their main facility and blow it up making it look like Iran had a nuclear industrial accident.


EXCELLENT
Link Posted: 8/15/2005 12:48:35 PM EDT
[Last Edit: 8/15/2005 12:49:24 PM EDT by No-Worries]



Shhhhhhh - they're watching and listening... be vewwy vewwy quiet

http://www.aeronautics.ru/img003/nra05.jpg
Link Posted: 8/15/2005 12:49:37 PM EDT
It would be very hard for the Israelis to pull off. The attack aircraft would probably have to tank twice, even the extended range F-16's.

The US has to be prepared for a full spectrum fight if we decide to bomb Iran's nuke sites. It's not clear that Iran would just accept a strike of that sort without a retaliation, and that could lead to a full-fledged war. If a strike does happen it should be a part of an integrated plan to completely remove the mullahs, preferably through action by the Iranian people. A US occupation of Iran is a non-starter.
Link Posted: 8/15/2005 1:23:54 PM EDT
[Last Edit: 8/15/2005 1:24:39 PM EDT by FN-TPS]
I really think, that bombing Iran's nuclear facilities, would start a much larger, general war in the Middle East.

If we do so...we'd better have a plan in place to wage the most destructive, quick knock-out air campaign since Desert Storm....

None of that humanitarian "We won't bomb the bridges or power plants shit."

If Iran, so much as twitches, after we bomb the nuclear facilities, we need to be able to, turn out the lights, pull the plug on thier internet and cellular phones, bomb the TV and Radio stations, drop the bridges, kill their navy and shut down their military command and control....and we need to be able to do it, within hours.

If we'er not prepared to, or don't have the forces in theater, to wage that sort of stratigic aerial onslaught. Then attacking Iran's nuclear facilities, is a fool's errand. If we bomb Iran and it starts a much larger war, that we were not prepared to deal with, then it will be 100 times worse than the recriminations that followed the intelligence failures, in not finding Iraq's WMD's

Bombing Iran, without a plan to quickly remove the Iranian regime, in case things go south, would be like playing Russian roulette, with three chambers loaded, for this administration.
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