Many posts refer to SHTF (sh*t hit the fan) scenarios. What exactly is that in everyone's minds? Hearing a gun battle in your neighborhood? Someone breaking through your front door? Civilization collapsing due to plague, outer space invasion (you must be in your forties/fifties and watched too much black and white sci-fi shows), the "government” coming for "U"",etc.? If it is the most extreme, does anyone here think firearms are really going to solve "the problem"? If things totally fall apart there will be no food, no water, no electricity, no modern conveniences of any kind. Who here is really prepared? Sure you have guns and ammo, but in the end you really have nothing to really to help you and your family. Your guns may keep you alive for a while longer than perhaps other people, but why? Does life in your eyes really boil down to a competition that if I live long than you I win? For EVERYONE, it's only a matter of time. It's what you do in life that makes all the difference, not who is standing last, for you'll be standing alone and there will be no one to care. My point??  I have firearms to protect my family and myself. I know there are people out there that expect Armageddon and think that being well armed is going to save their ass. Well it isn’t going to happen, because either we all 'win", or we all "loose". "SHTF" scerenios?? I hope not! If a true "SHTF" scernenio happens where our entire civilization is at stake, we all will loose. There will be NO winners.

The word is "lose".  As has been asked, why are you posting this?

First of all, you would be utterly amazed at what some people around here have stockpiled.  And, I'm not talking about weapons.  There are a few individuals here who could support a small town for a while...

As to there being no 'winners' if the SHTF, well, you are right.  However, its not about winning anything.  Its about surviving, pulling together, and starting over again.

The indominable human spirit is something you obviously have lost touch with, I sure hope you find it again.

(FWIW, most of the SHTF discussions I've seen are assuming the 'extreme'.  I doubt anyone considers a home invasion or black helicopter sighting a SHTF scenario, except when tinfoil supplies run low.)

Oops, sorry!  I didn't notice the 'Don't feed the Trolls' sign over there.

It's because "Mars Needs Women". It has to be true, I saw it on TV when I was a kid. fullclip

FMJunkie,
I assure you, I'm no troll. I just thought I'd provoke some "lite" discussion. I realize there are many who are prepared, truly prepared. But I also realize there are many who think a loaded rifle and magazines is going to solve a  "SHTF" scerenio. In the short run yes, long run no (but it all depends upon reader's perception of "SHTF"). I guess my true intent of my post was to find out what "SHTF" means to the members of this forum.

Then I do apologize for the insinuation.  It just struck me as a little 'in your face you uninformed losers' to me.  Oh well, no worries, such is the problem with text on flat screens...[beer]

Sorry if I came across a little strong. Your right, two dimensional reading often leaves a lot for interpretation. I assure you, I did not mean to offend our members. My intent was to provoke a discussion on what exactly "SHTF" means. I think we each have a different idea in mind when we see/hear it.

I too have given the SHTF scenario alot of thought since 9/11.  Having two kids (four years and 1 1/2 years old) and a wife to care for has caused me to rethink what I would do in a real life SHTF situation.  Heading to the hills with two babies is kind of out of the question, however we live in what many of you would consider a very remote area anyway(northeast Mississippi).  I don't know how much help owning alot of weapons and ammo would be, if these terrorists poison the water supply or whatever...well none of us can survive without water.  BUT, i would rather be one of the "haves" than one of the "have nots" if the SHTF does happen.  Atleast i can protect my family from the hordes of thugs leaving the cities if the nukes or bio weapons start getting used.  I just hope and pray that Americans wake up and smell the coffee regarding letting these low life assholes in our country on student visas or for any other reason.  The next attack will be from muslim extremists already living here, when are we gonna round these f%*kers up and send them back to where they come from?  One nuke set off in a major city would have such devistating effects, the medical system would not be able to take all the casualties, from the blast or in the following months from the fallout.  If it was New York that got hit, no more Wall St, NASDAQ...etc.  It would change life as we know it forever.  depressing really, lets all pray that it don't happen, but I for one will do my best to prepare for atleast a little bit...plus it gives me excuse to buy more AR15's...ha

I have in front of me a handout from USA Freedom Corps, it was put out soon after 9-11, It actually can be classified as a comic book, it is called " Citizens' Preparedness Guide " and I believe it was written by a class of 3rd. graders by its content and it clearly states that each household should have a 3-5 day supply of water, canned food and essential supplies (as its strong point). Now what household does not at least a few weeks supply of these 3 allready ? If I got that low on supplies I would really begin to worry. To sum it up do not worry people, State&Fed Govt. WILL SAVE YOU. Now I'm sorry but if you believe this have I got a sale for you. My list of priorities are to God, my family, my country and me and any thing or person that would interfere with these would surely constitute a SHTF situation and would recieve a response...

Seems to me when the SHTF ten years ago in Los Angeles several Koreans did NOT lose.

In fact the entire city seemed to burn down and get looted in a 14 block radius around them. But most of the Koreans still had jobs, businesses and homes the next day.

Imagine that.

My idea of the SHTF goes something like this. Everyday we face some kind senario anywhere from weather related to just plain old loss of power to crime. In my little part of the state the average response time for law enforcement is about 35 minutes. In a small county with only 6 deputies we are streached pretty thin, so we cope any way we can. We keep our guns for the last line of defense, and we stock up food for natural disasters where the stores can't open.

I for one do not ever expect to see government collapse or civil war, or invasion from abroad. I am also willing to bet the major terrorist threat is over. But, better safe than sorry... fullclip

This is the kind of guy who will show up at your doorstep asking for food, water, etc. when the S does HTF.  

To me a SHTF situation is when someone posts without using a paragraph.

Sgtar15

lol

Snake-in-the-Grass...interesting nick you got there, pardner [>:/]

This topic has been beaten thoroughly to death here, and with considerably more tact than in your post. Try the "Search" feature to the upper left of your screen.

A few threads leap out right away:
[url]www.ar15.com/forums/topic.html?id=104508[/url]
[url]www.ar15.com/forums/topic.html?id=114845[/url]
[url]www.ar15.com/forums/topic.html?id=116089[/url]
[url]www.ar15.com/forums/topic.html?id=92039[/url]
[url]www.ar15.com/forums/topic.html?id=92039[/url]
[url]www.ar15.com/forums/topic.html?id=63729[/url]
[url]www.ar15.com/forums/topic.html?id=85155[/url]
[url]www.ar15.com/forums/topic.html?id=75574[/url]
[url]www.ar15.com/forums/topic.html?id=73283[/url]

The SHTF scenario that would be of the greatest concern to me would be something along the lines of a complete break down of all law and order following a terrorist attack.
And that is what i had and do prepare for.
I also made arrangements to get the hell out of NJ if anything goes really wrong.

When my life or the lives of my loved ones are in danger.  

there's the answer...

Oh no, my friend. That wasn't angry. If that was an angry reply, you'd know it because there would be a lot of exclamation points!!!!! Would a lot of question marks help to get my point across in a forceful way????? I would also rant on without any paragraph formatting making my post very difficult to read and contributing to headaches, squinting and bad attitudes for one and all. I might also resort to A LOT OF ALL CAPS TEXT TO EMPHASIZE THAT I FEEL STRONGLY ABOUT THE TOPIC. I didn't do any of that and therefore categorically reject your characterization of my post as angry. Have a nice day, beeyotch. [;D]

There it is, distilled to its essence.

Can we get a Goderator to include Tate's definition of "SHTF" in the Forum Code of Conduct?

[b]Snake_in_the_Grass[/b], your childish "winner-loser" mentality shows one-and-all here you haven't been thinking about this very long.

With the plethora of "SHTF" posts here (that you never bothered to read), it's obvious this site is not filled with one-shot-derringer-minded kooks who think guns are the end-all-and-be-all of survival.

Well, one things for sure. My guns will be useful for one thing. Driving people like you who think preparing for SHTF is futile and insult those of us who take it seriously away from my stash if/when the SHTF does happen and they come begging for my water, food or medicine.

when the beer is running low and the wife is gone with the car. only then do things begin to look like they are going south. and my neighbor comes over and takes my last smoke with out asking.

Any thing else I would be 100% prepared for. In planning and preparing for whether it was little green aliens or little blue headed trolls,or any unnatural or natural disaster.
[kill]                 [peep]

Thanks for the clarification.

To answer your question, I would say a man made disaster (LA riots) or a natural disaster (hurricane Andrew) start on the low end of SHTF in my book. Moving up would be things like another pandemic flu, major nuclear fallout from a paki-indi confrontation, serious earthquakes, etc. At the top would be nuclear blast on US soil, Solar flare, large meteorite strike, or something of that magnatude.

I am personally ready for some of the lower end scenarios and trying to prepare for more, gauging that on what I may reasonably expect to happen in my life time. Obviously, there comes a point where we're all toast. But to be unprepared for anything, is simply foolish.

-legrue

Here's a mini-example:

A couple of years ago, a low spot on a (poorly planned) major freeway flooded during a heavy rain, causing the freeway to be closed around rush hour.  Traffic had to be diverted and a one-hour commute turned into *four hours*.  

Imagine a couple of determined people dumping shopping carts full of trash, and/or throwing cinder blocks (or worse- molotiv cocktails) onto oncoming traffic- it would cause grid-lock if done in two or three strategic locations.

It doesn't take much to disrupt life as we know it.  I suspect, however, that it would take a HUGE catastrophe to make that disruption last longer than a week or two at the most.

You have your bug out bag types.  They will load up the family wagon and head out into the woods, live primitively and wait out what ever disaster befalls us.  Then there are the fortress types, stockpiling MRE’s, water, and ammo, ready to defend the Alamo.  These two stereotypical strategies have one glaring fault; Humans will not last long with out community.  What happens if the lone survivor with his bug out bag gets a wound on his back? He may have medical skills, but he cant reach himself to render aid.  What if there are two bug out buddies but neither one has medical skills?  What about the survivors in the fortress?  Sooner or later any small group of people will lack a necessary skill or product to stay comfortable and maybe even alive.  

I believe a true survival plan must include a diverse set of skills in a small community setting.  Furthermore a community would make better use economies of scale.  For instance the Alamo survivalist could grow a small amount of vegetables and raise one or two cows.  That’s a lot of work.  Now picture a small community that has a farmer and a rancher.  Each produces in his area of expertise far better than the other.  Theoretically the rancher would struggle with the crops if he were alone.  Now the rancher and the farmer barter for goods.    Then comes a storm, and damage to the farmers barn.  The carpenter  barters for repair.  And so on.  

How about the economic horsepower needed for preparation?  Our Alamo hero must spend a lot of money for a little bit of everything.   What if each member of the community spend their resources (time/money/land/building space) on their specialty only?  Again, the farmer can grow more than double the food for twice as much as the Alamo hero spends on food.  Both must cover the fixed expenses.  The Farmer can take advantage of a lower production cost per unit in volume.

Think about it folks.  Community and diversity of skill is key to a long term survival situation.  

My humble thoughts on the matter.  

Exactly Double Feed!  And right now I am a computer guy.  That will mean about Jack Sh!t if the power goes off.  I spend much free time learning other “hobby” stuff like gardening and woodworking.  Frankly I feel vulnerable.  Hey, at least I have marksman ship skills…  

It’s interesting how “community” and “communism” are similar yet radically different at the same time.  Think of community in terms of synergy, work group, or team effort.  That will help get that bad taste of communism out of your mouth.  

Recent historical examples:
WW2
LA Riots
Hurracaine Andrew
Somalia
Bosnia
Rowanda
Haiti
Zimbawae


Not so recent:
The American Revolution
The War Between the States
WW1

San Francisco Earthquake
Montreal Ice Storm
Tornados through the midwest
Power outages.
Forest fire reaching the suburbs..

All real, all recent, all likely to occur again...

I would describe the historical SHTF scenarios a little different:

Yankee Invasion of the 1860s.

The Negro riots of the 1960s, 1970s, 1980s, 1990s and 2000s.

Being out after dark in LA, Chicago, Detroit, DC, Houston, etc anytime after 1959.

Being near Waco Texas in the 1990s.

Being on Ruby Ridge in the 1990s.

 

This is where I usually chime in with "there is a difference between SHTF and TEOTWAWKI.  Words mean things.  So do acronyms.  I have experienced SHTF twice alrady, and me and mine are fine.  TEOTWAWKI is a whole different ball game."  Or words to that effect.    

give me gun (with ammo) and a swiss army knife, oh ya, and a water purifier too, then i am set.

The very wording simply means that,we were traveling down route 66 Air conditioning went out,drug the lifeless dog down the road until sparks from his chain set off the gas leak from the pursuing officers harley then the SHTF.

It's just when murphys law gets you,just when you think nothing can get worse,the SHTF so to speak.   Has nothing to do with world war or such,just when the you think things can't go any worse then blah   SHTF.    The only gun you have is in the shop,sh$$ happens ,TSHTF  .  


Bob    [8D]