Mine happens Tues-Sat at 1550 Mtn Time when I start preparing for my 1600 shift.  No I'm not a cop, fireman, medic, soldier, etc.  I'm an MPEG2 Tech.

Local police at my door saying, "Sir we have to collect all your firearms.  Its for the good of the nation."  I've told my wife that I would die before I gave up my meager firearms collection.  
Bill3508

Its not a "favorite" or anything, and I'd really hate for it to happen, but based on the way things are going down lately, I'd say civil war is a remote possibility, especially if reparations are paid . . .
[@:D]

HELTER SKELTER MAN....[8P]

Like dig it, blacky is gonna rise up and take out whitey. And only the cool whiteys is gonna be allowed to stay alive. They blackys just a need a little motivation to get things going dig it? Cause like they gots this cool buzz going on with their choice weed and stuff dude.

But itsa coming man, they gonna rise up against this pig state and thats gonna be it. Game over dude.[whacko]

Man, us gun nuts are like enriched Uranium, you get a critical mass, and they go boom........the BRC is going to be the begining of the end [:D]

Too bad I'm not going to be there [:(]

I chose "war", but only because that's the closest I could come to a large-scale terrorist attack.  Of course, that's only slightly more likely than the others, but given the state of things, I think it tops the list.

-kill-9

There will be no SHTF..
The reality is we will be slowly legislated into being a non world power by our own stupidity...
The few who take stands will be branded as nuts or terrorists..
Everyone else will wait for the BIG CHANGE that never comes, talk big...but never act.
Slow frustrating attrition is my SHTF scenario.

Having the AR15.com army, hundreds of pro-gun pro-freedom folks & a shitload of weapons all in one place, the BATF will cry "terrorist" & we will all become crispy critters!!!

ColtShorty

GOA KABA COA JPFO SAF NRA

"I won't be wronged,  I won't be insulted
and I won't be laid a hand on. I don't do
these things to other people and I require
the same from them."

Hey, the new guy has it figured out.

Boil the frog slowly? [bounce]

My expectation is that terrorists will use those lost tactical nukes to screw up LA, SF, DC, NYC, Chicago or other large cities.  That will cause our economy to collapse. The DC nuke will take out our government, even with the "shadow gov." in bunkers, that will pretty much be the end for a while.  I am not totally regretting that possibility.  As oppressive as our government has become......

After the economy and\or the government collapse, there will be civil unrest in the cities. No oil coming in, no gas available, no electricity being generated. Eventually food and city water supplies will be exhausted and those populations in the cities will starve or be killed by roaving bands of thugs.

I plan to be in the boonies at my uncles.  He is surrounded by woods, has year round springs to provide water, and plenty of land for a huge garden.  I almost hope it will happen.  It would be nice to spend so much time with the family and to have Uncle Sam out of my hair.  Imagine living in America without government oppression.

You all shall see very soon.

Does this mean we need to add "Something caused by Imbroglio" to the poll?

Before it was the Y2K.  I'm embarrassed to admit this but I stocked up on survival supplies.  Then the clock struck 12:00am.  DOH!  Nothing ever happened.  Having guns probably won't help me much.  I live in Los Angeles, and chances are higher that my apartment collapses during an earthquake.  No amount of guns and ammos will save me if they are all buried underneath the rubbles.  Yah, its true that we couldn't stop the terrorists from hijacking the plane and hitting famous buildings.  But doesn't mean our government will cease to exist one day.  Our government is redundant.  President can run the country from Air Force One.  Vice Preisdent can run the country from top secret bunker.  If Fed government breaks down totally, we still have the state and local government.  I wasn't here when the LA riot occurred but it didn't take long to restore order.  If you want to stock up on ammo, buy assault vest, gas mask, you are free to do so, and you should excersize it.  If our country gets invaded by green skinned alien, yah, I'll be standing next to my neighbors warding off invasion.  If there is a mass rooting, yah I'll be shooting every single prick that tries to enter my house.  My guess is likelihood of SHTF when you have to deploy your own guns in big cities (NYC/LA/DC) is 5%.  In smaller cities, its less than 1%.

It may hit the fan elsewhere, but up here in WA, we'll wait it out.  No sense running around outside getting wet and cold.  Bad weather really takes the riot drive out of a mob.

What real flashpoints are there around here?  The Seattle-Tacoma metropolitan axis and some nuts in Olympia.

But those two are separated by Fort Lewis and McChord AFB.

I'm glad I left California for the great wet north.  No disasters, and no race riots every 30 years.

Plenty of good folk on the peninsula and in the eastern half.  Washington State will fare well in most scenarios.

Shark attack.

I really don't know.  

I heard some important guy a few weeks back said some thing about an Ice cap break...  If it happens, say by by to all the coastal cities.  No oil = No gas = No truckers = No food = No cities = Gangs = Death.

Do I think that will happen?  Naaaa.

Some body said Christ would come back.  Will I still be here?  Who knows?

Some body said "we" would rise up against the government....  "we" would get squashed !!  Just look at the last 50 years.  The press lables "you", then the government comes in and splat, "your" gone.

Boil the frog slowly...  He'll never know.


This started long before my father was born.

[soapbox]    

Ok, I'll spell it out.

Can you say: " The firearms act of the '30s "

Maybe some terrorists will fly hijacked planes into the world trade center buildings destroying them and thousands of Americans.

Other then that.... I vote natural disasters.

Whaddaya mean "How's it hit?" It hits every damn night when she walks through the front door and wants to know why the garbage isn't taken out!

[soapbox]

When I run out of M&Ms.

Then I say for the sake of whitey man, we got to legalize the weed and keep blacky on the couch or in the fridge man. Ya dig??

So what happens to Browny man and Yellowy man in this situation, dudes???

SHTF is when there is a breakdown in Law and Order. A situation that we have to fend for ourselves to survive.  We know that there are people or group of people out there who will take advantage of the situation to prey on us civilian. The LA riot is a good example, and we all saw it live on TV!

And for those unbelievers who say that it will never happen.....9/11 taught us something....that the unthinkable, the unimaginable can happen and did happen.

Edited to add this:

I do not wish SHTF to happen......This is only my point of view about SHTF.

I hope it does not happen at the BRC, as I am going to attend.

 There will never be an open revolt against the US gov't.  Ample reasons have occurred (Waco) and nothing happened.  M66 is right on the money there.
 I can readily see a limited nuke exchange occurring in this so-called War on Terrorism.  Were that to happen, the US will be a pariah among nations, and trade would be cut off.  60% to 70% of our oil would stop flowing.  I can readily see social unrest go off the scale, and the divisive politics of the last thiry years will come home to roost.
 Add up all of those killed by US bombings, etc. since Nam, and we are killers on a scale of Hitler and Stalin.  The rest of the world hates us, and would dance on our graves.  Sufficient unrest at home could bring invasion, and if that whole chain of events is not TSHTF, I don't know what is.

Barring something like an asteroid or a plague that kills off the majrity of the people in the whole world, we can rule out the "Mad Max" scenarios as wistful masturbating on the part of those who predict such things.
There isn't going to be any uprising of righteous gun owners in the US, either.  Charlton Heston isn't going to do it, Wayne LaPierre isn't going to do it, that clown who sells M-14 stocks and rants about "riflemen" in Shotgun News isn't going to do it, and [b]you[/b] aren't going to do it.  Ruby Ridge happened.  Waco happened.  More anti-gun legislation than I care to list happened.  Where was the uprising?  Whether you like it or not, the majority of the population is either neutral or anti.  They either don't give a rat's ass or actively applaud each new restriction.  In other words, the day you gear up in your "Cheaper Than Dirt" Swedish surplus cammies and East German Webgear and brandish your AR-15 while bellowing about "refreshing the tree of liberty" and "from my cold, dead fingers" is the day your neighbors/employer/friends/in-laws calls the cops on you.  You then end up in a cell or dead.
As I've said in these threads before, the wealthy and powerful enjoy all their wealth and power brings them far too much to let things fall apart.  They want you docile.  It doesn't matter to them whether you are docile because you are afraid of the government or because you are sitting in front of the TV happily munching your Fritos and watching "Surivivor."  Guess what?  Most folks are docile.  As the megacorporations continue to become one with the governments, other nations will fall into line.  The reason the Soviets collapsed and the Red Chinese didn't is that the Chinese recognized what was going on and went with the flow.  The average Chinese is no more free than he ever was, but he is docile because he is getting at least some of the consumer goods he always wanted.  He could give a shit less about who is Premiere when he has that 12" color Samsung and is now able to watch reruns of "Dallas."
Any race rioting in this country will be contained and allowed to burn itself out or squashed.  The ruling elite aren't going to let blacky/whitey/browny/yellowy or anybody else break their rice bowl.
If terrorists hit a major city with a tactical nuke, you know what will happen?  The feds will rush disaster aid to that city the same as they would if it had been leveled by an earthquake or a hurricane.  Everyone in the whole rest of the country will watch it on TV and feel shocked and outraged all the way up through the first commercial break.  When the fedz then announce that further gun control restrictions are needed as a result of the incident, most folks will either agree or not care.  Gun owners will bitch on internet bulletin boards and then either comply or bury a bunch of guns in their backyard...where they do no good whatsoever.
The SHTF a long time ago.  The SHTF every day.  The more things change, the more they stay the same.  

I have not earthly idea what SHTF is. However not knowing anything shall not prevent me from pretending to know exactly how to defend myself against this, as yet unknown, threat

[smoke]

We've just seen the tip of bio terrorism.  The current crop of extremists have [b]NO[/b] compunction about playing that card.  When the next mass mailing of [i]anthrax[/i] goes out and the fear really strikes the sheeple hard then we're in for an interesting ride.  Look at how the postal workers were treated last time, lied to and marched back to work.  That won't work next time and there goes the mail.  Then other critical parts like police & fire service (would [i]you[/i] respond to a civil disturbance if there's a good chance a bio agent is lurking in the house you're called to???), interstate trucking (as communities attempt to 'quarentine') and other necessities shut down.

I was once a subscriber to the slow, corporate-induced, rights-erosion theory of FUBAR but since Sept 11th the stakes have been raised.  Now I'm dusting off the Y2K supplies, getting a hepafilter system in place and preparing to hunker down.  Oh yeah, and watch the Final Four, of course [:)].

Golgo-13 and ikor: I couldn't have said it better myself!
Those in power want to stay in power. Your average Joe is happy as long as he has his big screen TV, football, a lots of beer. It's disheartening, but most people are kinda stupid, and definately placated with the small things in life. The bottom line is there's a status quo, try to change this and you will be met with incredable resistance by those who benefit from and propagate this status quo. This is human nature.

Robby

I voted for "Civil unrest" only becuase [b]Moral decay/proliferation of methamphetamine[/b] and [b]Imbroglio goes on a shooting rampage[/b] were not amoung the options.

Drugs (Meth specifically) and the single parent home are what will destroy this country. I cant believe how much worse things have got in the last 6 months alone.

Mount Rainer - Tic, tic, tic, tic.....

The SHTF when my ole lady don't have my dinner ready when I get home!!!  Yep the minute I ask her why dinner aint on the table, she goes balistic.  Women...just can't controll'em anymore. hehehe

I agree with the majority, that it has already happened.  

I don't care too much for saying that we've already lost, but all we can do now is write our congressman, hey I don't think it can hurt.
I disagree that we're outnumbered by neutrals that don't care and the antis.  I think that we gun owners need to run our mouths as much as the hollywood "elite," we definately outnumber them.  As far as the neutrals go, we just need to pursuade them first.  As I've said before, most people aren't gonna change their minds after they've been made up.  I know I rarely do.

So lets just keep writing our congressman and give the NRA money.  Obviously it's better than nothing.  You are writting your congressfolks arn't ya?

Has anybody any proof of this statement?  I mean, are frogs [b]really[/b] that dumb?

I'd expect their survival instincts to be pretty hard-wired, after all.

IMO, Golgo's got it right...

And whoever said "Well I really don't [b]want[/b] it to happen..." is not being honest.  Fantasizing about SHTF scenarios reflects a wish for life to be simpler, less complicated, and easier to tolerate/understand.  Of course, the reality of life without basic amenities or social order is hell, but acknowledging that is no fun.

Look at Israel- life goes on for the majority of people every day despite multiple SHTF situations occuring regularly.  People are amazingly resilient...

The “drug problem” and “the morality crisis” are engineered problems for the tried and true Problem, Reaction, Solution control mechanism.  Sorry, passive life style choices do not harm you.  You have bought into the propaganda.  Both “problems” cause a “reaction” (your reaction).  People see the “problem” and say “something must be done!”  Then government implements a “solution” that was asked for.  That “solution” always involves more wealth redistribution and a loss of some freedoms.  In this case the government is telling us what we can and can not put in our bodies and how a government approved family unit should look.  

Get out from in front of the TV, stop listening to the propaganda.  Stop trying to impose your morals on others, its just not right.  

Do my job for a week and you'll change your tune.

You are right that drug use doesnt hurt [b]me[/b]. Becuase I dont use drugs.

I wonder if it hurt the 15 year old kid I found overdosed on a fast food restaurant floor this week? Or the 17 year old girl who reported being forcably raped by her meth supplier?

We are loosing an entire genration. When this generation of addicts reaches the age of majority and starts running the show, we are screwed.

I thought you were not allowed to own guns in california!

I say SHTF senario would be if Hillary clinton
gets to be president! chelsey gets to be attorney general. and Bill gets monica again.

I didn't see the option for "Any of the above!".  

Although, if Hillary Clinton ever becomes President, then I would say that the Shit, has definitely hit the fan!!

I really believe you will see the Balkanization of the US. The Southwest will split off and other ethnic groups will demand their own homelands.

I second that! and no not Chelsey but Rosie O' Dougnut to be attorney general and Bill...He...He...He...he will try to get Britney. The younger the better.

AR15Fan, Let me start by saying I have the utmost respect for the job you do.  And thanks for sharing those first hand accounts with me.  

The 17 year old that OD’ed is indeed tragic, however that was  a personal choice for that young man.  Lets face it, people should have the right to mess-up their own lives.  It is not the government’s job to protect people from themselves.   Clearly the billions of tax dollars (wealth redistribution) spent on the drug war and the freedoms we have lost in the last ten years did not save this man.  And they never will.  The drug war has failed in its stated cause, to end drug use.  That’s not to say you, and the thousands of other brave and dedicated people, have failed personally.  You can not succeed, the drug war is designed to fail.  In fact I’d say the drug war is the “solution” by which society gladly gives up freedoms (see previously mentioned frog boiling post).

The woman was a victim of rape, not drugs.  The individual who raped her should be held accountable.  Drugs do not rape people.  People rape people.  To say drugs were responsible for that crime is akin to saying guns are responsible for murder.  Society and media point to drugs as the problem, not the rapist!?!  If someone told you guns should be banned because they saw the result of a murder you would have this same conversation with them.

The single parent comment, I am trying hard not to take that personally.  I was raised by a single parent.  I have a long list of achievements to include a decelerated service carrier, a successful marriage, and career.  I have never had any run-ins with the law worse than a speeding ticket.  

-Mark (debating, not flaming) L32.

Heh heh.  I'm glad I'm not the only one who thinks he's nuts.  What's his deal anyway?

That aside, I think your post was right on target.  

OK now I know what SHTF is:

Its when all the 'minority' ethnic groups all decide to band together and get the white man [:O]

ECS, you are a funny guy. LOL!