Warning

 

Close

Confirm Action

Are you sure you wish to do this?

Confirm Cancel
Member Login

Site Notices
11/20/2019 5:07:11 PM
Posted: 4/17/2006 11:40:28 AM EST
Link Posted: 4/17/2006 11:42:12 AM EST
In before the "PEAK BULLSHIT" flood arrives...
Link Posted: 4/17/2006 11:42:23 AM EST
[Last Edit: 4/17/2006 11:42:55 AM EST by mtechgunman]
in before Peak_Oil gets out of elementary school


edit: damn, leelaw beat me.
Link Posted: 4/17/2006 11:43:02 AM EST
But if the sky doesn't fall I'll never get a chance to use my bug out bag, my tricked out M4gery and my MRE's will go bad in 20 years.

Link Posted: 4/17/2006 11:43:15 AM EST
Hookers and blow.

I've got enough at least.
Link Posted: 4/17/2006 11:43:18 AM EST

Originally Posted By mtechgunman:
in before Peak_Oil gets out of elementary school


edit: damn, leelaw beat me.




+1


Link Posted: 4/17/2006 11:43:25 AM EST
what about 7.62x39
Link Posted: 4/17/2006 11:44:49 AM EST
Hate. We'll never run out of that, thank God.
Link Posted: 4/17/2006 11:44:55 AM EST
I believe that there is an infinite amount of stupidity in the Universe.

Therfore, we will never run out of it.

SG
Link Posted: 4/17/2006 11:45:32 AM EST

Originally Posted By sherrick13:
The basic law of supply and demand says that as supply starts to dwindle than the price will rise and will reduce demand and force people to subsitutes. It will also create more incentive to find new technology or become more efficent.

We will NOT run out of oil, copper, food, labor, women, whatever. When it become financally burdensome to use whatever resource we will either find more of it or substitute for it.


Some people need to take a econ class. Or just go read a book by Thomas Sowell.



Or julian simon.
Link Posted: 4/17/2006 11:45:58 AM EST
Link Posted: 4/17/2006 11:47:04 AM EST

Originally Posted By leelaw:
In before the "PEAK BULLSHIT" flood arrives...



The problem is that the "Peak" crowd only see half the picture - and then run off like chickens without a head without bothering to understand the second half.

They are of course correct that a "peak" is probably inevitable in oil (since it is a limited resource), but they are completely incorrect about the implications.

Sherrick13 is 100% correct.

As oil supply eventually (and GRADUALLY) lessens, prices will increase. As soon as that happens, the incentive to explore alternative will get stronger, and the higher the price gradually goes, the more alternatives will become financially viable. Since this will inevitably be a gradual process, the transition from oil to something else (or mutiple something elses) will occur slowly, with plenty of time for adaptation and new infrastructure.


So the concept of "peak oil" is technically valid (and logical) - but all the sky-is-falling conclusions that the nutcases draw are completely asenine.
Link Posted: 4/17/2006 11:47:50 AM EST
Arfcom will never run out of hot air!
Link Posted: 4/17/2006 11:51:36 AM EST
Peak oil must not take into account demand destruction.

It may be slow, but it is there.

TXL
Link Posted: 4/17/2006 11:56:45 AM EST
We will not run out of........PIE !.......it's coming across the border in droves.
Link Posted: 4/17/2006 11:58:26 AM EST

Originally Posted By mtechgunman:
in before Peak_Oil gets out of elementary school


edit: damn, leelaw beat me.



Last I heard, he is still kissing the window on the short bus.
Link Posted: 4/17/2006 12:00:30 PM EST

Originally Posted By bigthicket:
We will not run out of........PIE !.......it's coming across the border in droves.



You talking about brown-breasted mattress thrashers? Careful, marrying one of them is like pulling the ripcord on a liferaft.
Link Posted: 4/17/2006 12:01:05 PM EST
IBT
Link Posted: 4/17/2006 12:03:43 PM EST

Originally Posted By Keith_J:

Originally Posted By bigthicket:
We will not run out of........PIE !.......it's coming across the border in droves.



You talking about brown-breasted mattress thrashers? Careful, marrying one of them is like pulling the ripcord on a liferaft.



Hell yeah, they speak their own language and i don't mean spanish.
Link Posted: 4/17/2006 12:04:04 PM EST

Originally Posted By ScaryGuy:
I believe that there is an infinite amount of stupidity in the Universe.

Therfore, we will never run out of it.

SG


We almost have a monopoly on production though.
Link Posted: 4/17/2006 12:04:19 PM EST
Link Posted: 4/17/2006 12:04:51 PM EST
[Last Edit: 4/17/2006 12:05:05 PM EST by PromptCritical]

Originally Posted By DK-Prof:

Originally Posted By leelaw:
In before the "PEAK BULLSHIT" flood arrives...



The problem is that the "Peak" crowd only see half the picture - and then run off like chickens without a head without bothering to understand the second half.

They are of course correct that a "peak" is probably inevitable in oil (since it is a limited resource), but they are completely incorrect about the implications.

Sherrick13 is 100% correct.

As oil supply eventually (and GRADUALLY) lessens, prices will increase. As soon as that happens, the incentive to explore alternative will get stronger, and the higher the price gradually goes, the more alternatives will become financially viable. Since this will inevitably be a gradual process, the transition from oil to something else (or mutiple something elses) will occur slowly, with plenty of time for adaptation and new infrastructure.


So the concept of "peak oil" is technically valid (and logical) - but all the sky-is-falling conclusions that the nutcases draw are completely asenine.



I tried explaining that to one of the nuts and his response was that it won't be gradual because the demand is rising at an increasing rate and when the supply starts dropping, the price, based on a demand/supply ratio will increase at an astonishing rate. Probably not as bad as he thinks, but he does have a point.

Demand ↑
-------------- = Price ↑↑
Supply ↓

Personally, I think the "peak oil" thing is hogash, but I'm concerned about the interrim between the current situation and whenever the new sources come to market. I know where there is money to be made in energy, someone will find a way to make it, but between now and then, who knows. It may just suck really bad for a while...
Link Posted: 4/17/2006 12:06:08 PM EST
What about peak sex toys? There is not too much talk of that?
Link Posted: 4/17/2006 12:06:51 PM EST
[Last Edit: 4/17/2006 12:07:26 PM EST by Gunner1X]
Peak illegals? We will not run out of illegal immigrants Mexicans.
Link Posted: 4/17/2006 12:07:16 PM EST
Someone post the peak ammo chart please.
Link Posted: 4/17/2006 12:08:03 PM EST
http://www.jobrelatedstuff.com/forums/topic.html?b=1&f=5&t=455988
Link Posted: 4/17/2006 12:09:25 PM EST
The world will never run out of stupid.
Link Posted: 4/17/2006 12:09:52 PM EST


one better. just whipped this up, and will post it in all these fucking oil discussions from now on. we will NEVER run out of oil, or anything else for that matter
Link Posted: 4/17/2006 12:10:57 PM EST
I can't wait until we reach peak dumb charts.
Link Posted: 4/17/2006 12:11:00 PM EST

Originally Posted By Napoleon_Tanerite:
i37.photobucket.com/albums/e86/ibdmentd/commieoilchartthingie.jpg

one better. just whipped this up, and will post it in all these fucking oil discussions from now on. we will NEVER run out of oil, or anything else for that matter



Uh... You totally missed the PEAK part of "PEAK oil"

And your supply : demand : price ratios are off..
Link Posted: 4/17/2006 12:11:42 PM EST

Originally Posted By Stealth:
I can't wait until we reach peak dumb charts.



Well we've had a good one for a while, forget peak smart, though:

Link Posted: 4/17/2006 12:18:20 PM EST

Originally Posted By leelaw:
...peak smart...



I gotta remember that one.
Link Posted: 4/17/2006 12:21:09 PM EST

Originally Posted By leelaw:

Originally Posted By Napoleon_Tanerite:
i37.photobucket.com/albums/e86/ibdmentd/commieoilchartthingie.jpg

one better. just whipped this up, and will post it in all these fucking oil discussions from now on. we will NEVER run out of oil, or anything else for that matter



Uh... You totally missed the PEAK part of "PEAK oil"

And your supply : demand : price ratios are off..



there's no such thing as "peak supply" on a resource like oil. there is a "peak demand" and after that, the price becomes more than the resource is worth, thus lowering the demand for it. we will always have oil available. it's not like a produced item such as ammo. you can close every ammo plant on earth and there will be no more ammo. there will ALWAYS be oil, it's a matter of how much people are willing to pay to get it
Link Posted: 4/17/2006 12:30:17 PM EST
[Last Edit: 4/17/2006 12:32:13 PM EST by danonly]

Originally Posted By Napoleon_Tanerite:
there's no such thing as "peak supply" on a resource like oil. there is a "peak demand" and after that, the price becomes more than the resource is worth, thus lowering the demand for it. we will always have oil available. it's not like a produced item such as ammo. you can close every ammo plant on earth and there will be no more ammo. there will ALWAYS be oil, it's a matter of how much people are willing to pay to get it



you need to go back to school to learn how not to oversimplify. For one thing, if you close every ammo "plant" on the earth there will still be reloaders. And then someone will open up a new "plant" to meet demand.

and i would certainly say there is a point when supply of oil peaks. It is the time when oil sucking out of the ground produces the most oil, in volume.


remember, supply is a different word than demand

Link Posted: 4/17/2006 12:37:38 PM EST
Assholes, there is and always will be an abundance of assholes.

That is all.
Link Posted: 4/17/2006 1:00:36 PM EST

Originally Posted By go3:
Hate. We'll never run out of that, thank God.



We have a winner!!!
Link Posted: 4/17/2006 1:09:25 PM EST
Idiots who think they know everything.

Link Posted: 4/17/2006 1:30:20 PM EST
The supply and demand curve rely on certain presumptions, one of which is free market. While entrance barriers can be overcome, they sure mess with the shapes of the curves.

Take ak uppers. If we ban the import, there will still be some. Those will quickly go up in price. Eventaully some will be manufactured in the US - but will cost $100s more than the surplus we are used to. Then the .gov will ban them too, and the price will continue to spiral upwards as supply dries up.

---
Get married and test the domestic supply/demand of bj curve.
Link Posted: 4/17/2006 1:38:35 PM EST

Originally Posted By mousehunter:
The supply and demand curve rely on certain presumptions, one of which is free market. While entrance barriers can be overcome, they sure mess with the shapes of the curves.

Take ak uppers. If we ban the import, there will still be some. Those will quickly go up in price. Eventaully some will be manufactured in the US - but will cost $100s more than the surplus we are used to. Then the .gov will ban them too, and the price will continue to spiral upwards as supply dries up.

---
Get married and test the domestic supply/demand of bj curve.



Um... Ak's don't exactly have "uppers"... But the point is good. There is actually a good essay in "Unintended Consequences" about how the government has affected gun prices through legislation.
Link Posted: 4/17/2006 3:33:13 PM EST
Link Posted: 4/17/2006 3:43:18 PM EST

women


According to a show I watched last night... 60 minutes? China IS running out of women. Just food for thought Im sure it will balance out eventualy.
Link Posted: 4/17/2006 4:03:32 PM EST
Link Posted: 4/17/2006 4:08:06 PM EST
Link Posted: 4/17/2006 4:10:37 PM EST

Originally Posted By DoubleFeed:
I'd like to know how many of the peak oil types are at work engineering new energy sources and devices to run them.



Or even avoid using petroleum based products...
Link Posted: 4/17/2006 5:13:44 PM EST
I've said it before and I'll say it again:

Arguing about Peak Oil in the year 2006 is like arguing about Peak Buggy Whips in the year 1906.
Top Top