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Posted: 8/23/2017 11:24:41 AM EST
HSBC, Citigroup, Morgan Stanley say end of market boom is nigh
Breakdown in trading patterns is signal to get out soon

HSBC Holdings Plc, Citigroup Inc. and Morgan Stanley see mounting evidence that global markets are in the last stage of their rallies before a downturn in the business cycle.

Analysts at the Wall Street behemoths cite signals including the breakdown of long-standing relationships between stocks, bonds and commodities as well as investors ignoring valuation fundamentals and data. It all means stock and credit markets are at risk of a painful drop.

“Equities have become less correlated with FX, FX has become less correlated with rates, and everything has become less sensitive to oil,” Andrew Sheets, Morgan Stanley’s chief cross-asset strategist, wrote in a note published Tuesday.

His bank’s model shows assets across the world are the least correlated in almost a decade, even after U.S. stocks joined high-yield credit in a selloff triggered this month by President Donald Trump’s political standoff with North Korea and racial violence in Virginia.

Just like they did in the run-up to the 2007 crisis, investors are pricing assets based on the risks specific to an individual security and industry, and shrugging off broader drivers, such as the latest release of manufacturing data, the model shows. As traders look for excuses to stay bullish, traditional relationships within and between asset classes tend to break down.
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https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-08-22/wall-street-banks-warn-winter-is-coming-as-business-cycle-peaks

Maybe it'll happen on a Monday?
Link Posted: 8/23/2017 11:25:45 AM EST
"Signals"....Got it.
Link Posted: 8/23/2017 11:28:58 AM EST
So market uncertainty driven by world uncertainty might lead to a downturn.  Got it.  
Link Posted: 8/23/2017 11:31:41 AM EST
Link Posted: 8/23/2017 11:32:11 AM EST
yawn
Link Posted: 8/23/2017 11:34:33 AM EST
Quick!  Short everything!  Monday is just five days away.
Link Posted: 8/23/2017 11:36:33 AM EST
Doubt it. We haven't had a a major correction in almost 10 years, why would we suddenly have one now? 
Link Posted: 8/23/2017 11:37:43 AM EST
Monday®
Link Posted: 8/23/2017 11:38:23 AM EST
Link Posted: 8/23/2017 11:43:00 AM EST
Wishful think by liberals
Link Posted: 8/23/2017 11:43:37 AM EST
market is overbought. i dont know what the definition of correction is so i cant say for sure. but i expect the market to fall. i dont expect something like 2007 2008 unless there is some significant bubble like the housing/real estate/mortgage of the last correction or the hugely overpriced NASDAQ before the dotcom meltdown. but its coming.

all bets are off though if something crazy happens, something with trump or something with NK. big boys are poised for the shorts simply waiting for the signal when all prisoners will be released.
Link Posted: 8/23/2017 11:44:08 AM EST
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By ContrarianIndicator:
Doubt it. We haven't had a a major correction in almost 10 years, why would we suddenly have one now? 
View Quote
Upward growth forever!



(June 26, 1999)



(September 30, 1999)



(December 2001)
Link Posted: 8/23/2017 11:44:17 AM EST
[Last Edit: 8/23/2017 11:53:22 AM EST by 9divdoc]
Let's see what Yellen has to say today out there in the Hole

Krazy Kim is a wild card as are the local communists,the GOPe,NeoCons,RINOs their compatriots in Antifa and BLM

Chinese lukewarm friendship with Kim makes the world real confident with the Yuan as reserve currency.

The USD where else are they gonna go?
Link Posted: 8/23/2017 11:49:19 AM EST
Damn, I just put a buy order in.
Link Posted: 8/23/2017 11:51:29 AM EST
@gym007

you'll be vindicated soon, broseph
Link Posted: 8/23/2017 11:51:39 AM EST
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By ContrarianIndicator:
Doubt it. We haven't had a a major correction in almost 10 years, why would we suddenly have one now? 
View Quote
There's an ironic disconnect with this post and username.

The very fact that there hasn't been a correction is an indication that one is due.
Link Posted: 8/23/2017 11:52:25 AM EST
Awesome- I have some cash incoming...
Link Posted: 8/23/2017 11:53:26 AM EST
Isn't that a bit like saying the sun will set tonight?
And then come up again tomorrow morning?

No shit, in other words
Link Posted: 8/23/2017 11:53:35 AM EST
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By st0newall:
market is overbought. i dont know what the definition of correction is so i cant say for sure. but i expect the market to fall. i dont expect something like 2007 2008 unless there is some significant bubble like the housing/real estate/mortgage of the last correction or the hugely overpriced NASDAQ before the dotcom meltdown. but its coming.

all bets are off though if something crazy happens, something with trump or something with NK. big boys are poised for the shorts simply waiting for the signal when all prisoners will be released.
View Quote
I believe correction is considered 10% or greater. Dont quote me on that though
Link Posted: 8/23/2017 11:53:40 AM EST
Bulls and Bears make money, etc etc.
Link Posted: 8/23/2017 11:55:31 AM EST
Well unless you're planning on spending the money next year you'll be fine. In which case it shouldn't be in the market anyways.
Link Posted: 8/23/2017 11:58:52 AM EST
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By Notcalifornialegal:
Well unless you're planning on spending the money next year you'll be fine. In which case it shouldn't be in the market anyways.
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This
Link Posted: 8/23/2017 12:04:05 PM EST
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By GeneralDisaray:
This
View Quote View All Quotes
View All Quotes
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By GeneralDisaray:
Originally Posted By Notcalifornialegal:
Well unless you're planning on spending the money next year you'll be fine. In which case it shouldn't be in the market anyways.
This
That. Plus buying opportunity if you have some extra cash laying around. I'll take it now vs. 30 years from now.
Link Posted: 8/23/2017 12:05:10 PM EST
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By st0newall:
market is overbought. i dont know what the definition of correction is so i cant say for sure. but i expect the market to fall. i dont expect something like 2007 2008 unless there is some significant bubble like the housing/real estate/mortgage of the last correction or the hugely overpriced NASDAQ before the dotcom meltdown. but its coming.

all bets are off though if something crazy happens, something with trump or something with NK. big boys are poised for the shorts simply waiting for the signal when all prisoners will be released.
View Quote
New home sales plunge 10%
Link Posted: 8/23/2017 12:11:45 PM EST
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By 50DollarCheShirt:


Upward growth forever!
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We're safe so long as we all believe that the price of tulips will never fall.
Link Posted: 8/23/2017 12:14:00 PM EST
How many hundreds of millions will the bankers and CEOs make in bonuses for crashing the economy this time?
Link Posted: 8/23/2017 12:14:45 PM EST
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By VooDoo3dfx:


New home sales plunge 10%
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lol
Yet prices Increase

Is it cause there aren't enough houses?

Houses here are sold before they're even built...
Link Posted: 8/23/2017 12:16:47 PM EST
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By POLYTHENEPAM:


We're safe so long as we all believe that the price of tulips will never fall.
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To paraphrase the Simpsons...

Skinner: Well, I was wrong. The tulips are a godsend.
Lisa: But isn't that a bit short-sighted? What happens when the price of tulips falls?
Skinner: No problem. We simply unleash wave after wave of Adjustable Rate Mortgages. They'll prop up the tulips.
Lisa: But aren't the ARMs even worse?
Skinner: Yes, but we're prepared for that. We've lined up a fabulous type of long running car note and college debt that can't be discharged in bankruptcy.
Lisa: But then we're stuck with new entries into the economy that will never escape debt and can never enter the middle class!
Skinner: No, that's the beautiful part. When wintertime rolls around, those people will simply freeze to death.
Link Posted: 8/23/2017 12:19:52 PM EST
[Last Edit: 8/23/2017 12:21:40 PM EST by SuperSet72]
The big banks shouldn't worry, we'll bail them out no matter what
Link Posted: 8/23/2017 12:31:07 PM EST
"We're gonna need a bigger bailout"
Link Posted: 8/23/2017 1:51:02 PM EST
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By ContrarianIndicator:
Doubt it. We haven't had a a major correction in almost 10 years, why would we suddenly have one now? 
View Quote


All the things are overvalued.
Link Posted: 8/23/2017 2:42:11 PM EST
Self fulfilling prophecy... Obviously the market is going to go down in the future, nobody knows when. I think the firms want it to so they can take gains and then invest again.
Link Posted: 8/23/2017 2:44:00 PM EST
did they call the pull back last year too?
Link Posted: 8/23/2017 2:44:26 PM EST
[Last Edit: 8/23/2017 2:44:55 PM EST by jestice75]
4chan posted some Rothschild fund report that stated the S&P is overvalued, trading at 25 times earnings, while the historical average is 15 times earnings.
Link Posted: 8/23/2017 2:47:56 PM EST
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By tango1978:
Monday®
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Link Posted: 8/23/2017 2:48:35 PM EST
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By SuperSet72:
The big banks shouldn't worry, we'll bail them out no matter what
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Per David Stockman, not this time.
Link Posted: 8/23/2017 3:00:27 PM EST
I should be up to a little more than 25% cash in a couple of weeks.

I'll be ready...
Link Posted: 8/23/2017 3:06:47 PM EST
[Last Edit: 8/23/2017 3:07:12 PM EST by SuperSet72]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By 4v50:
Per David Stockman, not this time.
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If another financial crisis were to hit and you're wondering how the government will respond, you should look around to notice how many big banking connections exist in your current Presidential administration.
Link Posted: 8/23/2017 3:15:11 PM EST
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By Bedouin2W:
@gym007

you'll be vindicated soon, broseph
View Quote
Link Posted: 8/23/2017 3:29:11 PM EST
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By kugelblitz:
How many hundreds of millions will the bankers and CEOs make in bonuses for crashing the economy this time?
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Isn't that punishment enough for all they went through last time???
Link Posted: 8/23/2017 3:33:21 PM EST
US dollar has been rapidly loosing value since April.....most people didn't pay attention. 15% drop in value.

What also people don't realize is that the rise in stock prices is actually due to weakening US economy and thus USD. Weakening US dollar is good for US corporations with global footprint, makes their profits go up due to currency exchange effect. Fudds on the other hand think it's because economy is doing so well, hah.
Link Posted: 8/23/2017 3:35:24 PM EST
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By pgaplayerless:
US dollar has been rapidly loosing value since April.....most people didn't pay attention. 15% drop in value.

What also people don't realize is that the rise in stock prices is actually due to weakening US economy and thus USD. Weakening US dollar is good for US corporations with global footprint, makes their profits go up due to currency exchange effect. Fudds on the other hand think it's because economy is doing so well, hah.
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I've never understood how you have such a right-leaning economic ideology, yet it isn't reflected in your political ideology. They usually go together. What gives?
Link Posted: 8/23/2017 3:37:43 PM EST
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By VooDoo3dfx:


New home sales plunge 10%
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Just like last time, housing prices skyrocketed for no particular reason, greedy developers tried to beat each other to build more overpriced stick-homes, and then the market stopped when all those who could afford or wanted those things had one already.

It will bounce back faster, the loans weren't nearly as easy to get and resold as "securities".
Link Posted: 8/23/2017 3:39:20 PM EST
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By RINO_Hunter:
I've never understood how you have such a right-leaning economic ideology, yet it isn't reflected in your political ideology. They usually go together. What gives?
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Economically "conservative" while socially "liberal" is the definition of libertarian ideology. Both parties fear libertarians and attack them with fervor.
Link Posted: 8/23/2017 3:39:42 PM EST
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By RR_Broccoli:
Just like last time, housing prices skyrocketed for no particular reason, greedy developers tried to beat each other to build more overpriced stick-homes, and then the market stopped when all those who could afford or wanted those things had one already.

It will bounce back faster, the loans weren't nearly as easy to get and resold as "securities".
View Quote
It's happening again.
Link Posted: 8/23/2017 3:43:54 PM EST
I generally look long term, no one to catch a knife- Dividends and interest, etc.
Link Posted: 8/23/2017 3:44:44 PM EST
And now it's a self fulfilling prophecy.

This is how this kind of shit gets started.
Link Posted: 8/23/2017 3:45:19 PM EST
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By pgaplayerless:


Economically "conservative" while socially "liberal" is the definition of libertarian ideology. Both parties fear libertarians and attack them with fervor.
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Where do you fall on spelling???

loose/lose


Link Posted: 8/23/2017 3:45:59 PM EST
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By tango1978:
Monday®
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Link Posted: 8/23/2017 3:46:34 PM EST
[Last Edit: 8/23/2017 3:53:33 PM EST by callgood]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By Soot4Brains:
Damn, I just put a buy order in.
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Soot4Brains, you idiot, get back in there and sell, SELL!

Attachment Attached File
Link Posted: 8/23/2017 3:47:08 PM EST
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By fla556guy:
So market uncertainty driven by world uncertainty might lead to a downturn.  Got it.  
View Quote
exactly... so, you're telling me the market can't just rise.... damn it!!! why has nobody told me this before!!!
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