Nothing like a good ole fashioned surface action to speed those diplomatic efforts right along...into the trash can.

[IMG]http://216.40.201.38/contrib/geno/ak.gif[/IMG][IMG]http://www.uniquehardware.co.uk/server-smilies/contrib/ed/M16.gif[/IMG]

Isn't N. Korea the country which vowed to destroy us if the US meddled in their affairs?

With the USA and its allies focused on Middle-east problems, and East European Balkan areas; this is N. Korea's chance.

 There are still soldiers down there.


 There are altercations on the 38th parallel really all the time...  But with N.Koreans starving the Government might try something stupid. Apparently its getting really bad up north... If the government ever feels threatened they may indeed launch an offensive..Kinda like a last Gasp??? But I really don't know anything about it..

The N. Koreans are just pissed at all the attention that the South is getting from the World Cup.

That is exactly how the Korean war started, North Korea needed more food and natural resources, so they wanted to take from the south.  Of course if they took the south and implemented their doomed communist government they would simply be starving there also.  They are too stupid to see that it is not their geographical location that is the problem, it is their lack of capitalism.

I tell you what though folks, with everything else going on this is a shitstorm we don't need right now.  With our cut down military we simply cannot fight in Afghanistan, Korea, Iraq (possibly Iran by extension) and god forbid the Israel area if need be.  We simply can't do it all right now.

If N. Korea invaded again, we might simply have to let it go, though I tend to think that we would make that the priority and divert from the middle east if that were to happen.  That is also a mistake in my estimation.

BTW, if start fighting in Korea again, we ARE going to be dealing with China as well.  

Mike

I was in Korea as a civillian working for a company from 96-99 the south Korean people don't fear the North at all.  I was way more worried about a N. Korean attack than they were.  


When I had been there about two weeks I was in a park rollerblading one day when all of a sudden, out of no where I hear sirens a'blazin away & freaked out & ran for home thinkin the Northern tanks must be rolling accross ...pretty soon I realized no one else was ducking for cover or changing their routine!  I started to slow down, but not soon enough because a group of high school girls laughed pretty hard at me.  It was a drill, they have them all the time.  

[>:/]  [%|]

So China is allies with N. Korea and are we allies with S. Korea?

Keving67

The North [b]KNOWS[/b] how formidable their opponent is. Our first in-country breifing was 5 minutes in, when we were shown the map, and it was explained how nothing has changed since 1953.

The stories of the Norths desperation have been around a long time. Tales of drinking antifreeze and brake fluid for a buzz, stories of widespread starvation. These are weapons of a very strong propaganda machine. Dont forget, Ethiopias Communist government was replaced by a VERY small group after "aid" was arranged.

The North knows it will have met its match *IF they come across the DMZ. The ROK soldiers are highly trained, motivated and have the will, training and equipment to fight. Not to mention the South has had 50 years to dig in.

Also Kim Jung Il has a perm worse than Al Sharpton.

ROK 1- Kim Jung Il-0

This is news?

Nope, just double checking.

Keving67

Great.

US preoccupied with the war on terror, actions in Afghanistan, Pakistan, the Baltics, etc. North Korea invades South Korea, US reacts, China makes an end run and takes Taiwan, US plans reponse under protest of WalMart, Traget, and KMart. US a dollar short and a day late, puts tail between legs and leaves. Gore wins 2004 election then signs an executuve order banning cars and guns.

I have heard nothing about China promising to back North Korea. For most of the period since the end of the Korean war, North Korea was aligned with Russia- not China. The fall of the Soviet Union brought that to a end as Russia demands cash now for weapons and technology, and North Korea doesn't have any.

China gives aid to North Korea, but is that a commitment to their cause, or just trying to prevent a neighbor from falling into anarchy?

Even Chinas 1950 intervention was triggered by us getting too close to their territory for their liking. It was, actually, a distraction from their activities in occupying the western portions of the old empire and taking over Taiwan...

While I am sure China would like to use a Korea War as a diversion for a takeover of Taiwan, NOW would not be a good time, as China at the moment lacks the means to send troops across the Taiwan Strait in any meaningful numbers. All they have are missiles- they have lots of those- but indiscriminate bombing of cities has never caused a country to surrender yet.

On the other hand, I don't think North Korea can hold out for as long as China needs to reorganize itself for a attack on Taiwan.  They are either going to collapse in a coup like Romania did, or they are going to launch a stupid military adventure- which will fail and THEN collapse into a revolution, aided by US and ROK intervention.

Another thing is, the ROK has come a long way in cleaning up its own house. Dissent in the south has largely vanished. They have a democratic government that works as well as anywhere now, rather than the de-facto dictatorship of Sigman Rhee and his followers. Their military is state of the art, not only with US hardware but their own designs that they themselves build. I don't think that the NKPA can beat the ROK if they attack anymore, even without much US support.

Maybe we should just send  all of our used vehicles to N.Korea the way those bastards drive they would certainly kill themselves off in short order.

Hey, thanks.
I [i]was[/i] going to try to get a good night's sleep. [;D]

It's not their lack of capitalism that's causing them to starve (though that certainly doesn't help) it's the fact that their military has a priority over all financial resources. A whopping 33% of their GDP is spent on the military. These guys are still keeping Korean War-level military strength to strike the South at any time - 50 years after the fact.

They could do that when they were receiving billions in aid from the Soviet Union and other Soviet satellite states but they are no longer receiving any financial aid from anybody anymore.

The DPRK are simply taking advantage of the weakness of South Korea. The ROK have been tolerating this type of aggression from North Korea for far too long. They give them lots of aid and get nothing in return. They need to launch cruise missile strikes DPRK ship ports to retaliate but I fear all they will do is open their mouths and do nothing yet again. Their timidness toward the North sickens me and disrespects the Korean and American soldiers who died there.

We will never need to fight for Israel. Their military is so rediculously overpowered compared to everything in the area right now, they'll stay that way for 10 years at least. That's what you get for 5 billion a year.

 
I don't think we will. China has changed significantly since the Korean War but North Korea hasn't changed a bit. I don't see them bankrolling or supporting the DPRK any more. China wants to be friends with South Korea far more than the North. North Korea is just a sinkhole who is nobody's friend any more.

The DPRK isn't really a big military threat to South Korea. They still follow the Soviet model of quantity and cheapness over quality. North Korea's Korean Peoples' Army has superior numbers than the South but they are using AK-47s, their best tank is the T-72 (mostly T-55s), their best aircraft is the MiG-29 (of which they have only a few, they are a mainly MiG-21 fleet), etc.  We're talking about an Iraq VS Israel scenario here. And that's not even adding US might to the picture.

China won't bail them out, they are on their own and collapsing as we speak. Unfortunately, their people (who want nothing to do with their governement) are dying with them. [:(]

Bring it on -

The quickest route to Korea unification is if the North gets stupid enough to strike first.

The counterattack will be something for the history books.

Exactly, and why wouldn't it be triggered by us being too close again?  I'm sure us getting that close would be germain to them again.



Lack the means?  Hell they could make a human bridge and walk across with all of their damn troops.

That is certainly part of it, and this seems to go hand in hand with communist regimes, just like the former soviet union.



They have better equipment and training, no doubt, but if they were to get into a serious firefight there are several muslim countries that might fight against them, if syria, lebanon, iraq, possibly jordan, and possibly egypt were to ally against then, I don't know that Israel could hold out...and guess who will be there to make sure they do hold out.



I don't see why China wouldn't.  They would have concerns about the geographical proxmity of the conflict, they very much dislike us, and they can lose more troops than we would ever consider...which wouldn't be bad for them, losing a buch of people.  Plus, as mentioned by others before, the conflict would give them reason to escalate and try to take Taiwan, which we know they very much would like to do.  I just don't see them sitting on the sidelines on this one, should it get going.

Mike

One thing to remember about China, and the Korean War is just one example of this, is they have no problem committing manpower to solve their problems. At this time, they do not have a blue water navy, however that will change in time. If they can gain victory through the deaths of 1 million of their people, they will do it. We do not have that commitment and rely on technology and training instead. Eventually, China will be a formidable enemy.

First off, the only countries that would possibly even consider going to war against Israel is Iraq and MAYBE Syria. Second, there are something like 22 million people in Israel. Until every one of those 22 million over 18 are either killed or occupied with a military chore will we send OUR TROOPS there to fight their war for them. Third, ALL the Muslim countries combined couldn't win a fight against Israel. The IDF is the 4th largest military power on Earth! They are a smaller version of our own military supported by 5 BILLION dollars in aid. Add that to the addition aid we would give them in a time of war... they are pathetic!

We are ALREADY very close to China with troops in Afghanistan; they haven't invaded Afghanistan, have they? Also, there is no more Chairman Mao sending millions of Chinese to their deaths for Communist ideals. Mark my words, China will NOT bail out North Korea this time. They have almost nothing in common any more. China's relationship with South Korea is far more important to it than its relationship with the North.

China's relationship with North Korea and the rest of the world has changed drastically since the end of the Korean War. Relations with North Korea aren't very peachy... did you know that North Korea considers China to be a "capitalist" country? Not to mention China letting all these illegal refugees through.

This is the only wildcard here. China must understand that they will have to fight the might of the US military in order to do so, something they can't possibly win against. South Korea should be able to handle North Korea by itself now, so we shouldn't have to send too much of our forces into Korea this time.

IF they can couple advanced technology and training with that kind of committment. I don't see modern China with that kind of committment any more, it was all Chairman Mao and his firing squads behind the troops if they turned back (Soviet-style). Right now they still only have numbers. And this assuming that there will still be a Communist dictatorship in Beijing by that time.

Hmmm, I wouldn't say that. I can think of several scenarios where china would have a marked advantage over the US in a war to take over Taiwan... Don't say never because in the right circumstances it would be easy for China to take over Taiwan....


   China's military has stated for a fact that THEY are gonna Try at some point to take over Taiwan, It is their MISSION Statement (so to speak) and is the reason for all upgrading currently going on.. Once their Sea lift capacity is brought to their apointed figure it will just be a matter of time after that before they launch an invasion...
 This missions statment is included in several studies done by military strategists here in America as well as sources within the Chinese government... The chinese government for all intents and purposes is still a Military Dictatorship.... And I for one don't see that changing any time soon..  

Not likely. Chairman Mao and his gang of four are dead. Their personalities directed Chinese behavior in Korea. Its not likely that they will clame everything north of the 38th parallel as a "defensive buffer zone" again.

Because he had only expelled Chaing the year before, and he knew that McArthur was insistant on US military involvement in China, that was enough for Mao to assume that our positions on the Yalu were just the jumping off point for a Nationalist/American invasion of China.

Since these people are gone, and China has never made a territorial claim to North Korea, its very unlikely that they will do anything if North Korea attacks first and is defeated and forced to surrender. North Korea will be supported only to the extent that they are useful to China. A US/South Korea initiated invasion of the North would be a different matter.

China knows that it CANT turn back the clock on the North Korean regime. They cant feed them, they cant make up their economic shortfalls. Or they would have done it by now, and the Koreans would not be starving.

If China was concerned about US and ROK troops on their border, and IF they could do anything about it they would invade Korea themselves and replace the Kim regime in Pyongynang with a compitent one that was still Communist. Like the Russians did in Hungary in Czechloslovakia during the Cold War.  They havent. And I would not be suprised that China wouldn't much rather the Kim regime just up and died already, cause the sooner Korea was unified the sooner they would be rid of US troops in Korea.

No Korean conflict means no more need for US troops in Korea. Our people more than likely would come home. And there would be less justification for US troops to be kept in Japan too. How long could any US government justify the continued presence of US forces in a unified Korea? Or the backup forces we keep in Okinawa. In the absence of a 4 party agreement for Korea, Japan, and Taiwan to defend each other against China? Only Taiwan would then have a absolute NEED for US troops in the region. Korea and Japans continued support would depend soley on how they value Taiwan as a economic partner-which China is constantly trying to undermine by doing more business with Korea and Japan than Taiwan does- or even the United States does.

Try looking at these threads from the [url]www.warships1.com[/url] message boards. They are nice cause people who are from the region and/or work in the field post there:

North, South Korean navy's clash:
[url]http://pub49.ezboard.com/fwarships1discussionboardsfrm16.showMessage?topicID=665.topic[/url]

PLAAF SU's falling from sky
[url]http://pub49.ezboard.com/fwarships1discussionboardsfrm16.showMessage?topicID=660.topic[/url]

Kilo buy proves China sub program collapse:
[url]http://pub49.ezboard.com/fwarships1discussionboardsfrm16.showMessage?topicID=661.topic[/url]

The most farfetched-but we can dream cant we: How China will fall apart in the next 10 years:
[url]http://pub49.ezboard.com/fwarships1discussionboardsfrm16.showMessage?topicID=587.topic[/url]

Dakotakid, I dont know where you get the idea that the Koreans hate Americans.  My grandmother lived through the Korean war and loves Americans.  If you followed the news, Korean vets greeted the American soccer team at the airport and cheered for them like they were playing for them.  Many of the military folks here will agree.  You will always have some protesters.  Thats why Korea makes the best teargas in the world!

There are more Americans that hate America than you will find over there.  Just ask ODonnell or any of the other Hollywood types.

I didn't say never... you're right, they can under the right circumstances. However there are only specific situations where China can take over Taiwan and even in those scenarios they won't hold it for long.

Indeed, China's air force is in shambles. Let's not forget the MiG-21 that rammed our EP-3 spy plane over a year ago. While he didn't do it on purpose, his arrogance didn't reconcile with the fact that he didn't know how to fly his plane.

China has been buying top of the line SUs and MiGs lately but they won't do much good without training. India has a similar situation. Seems as though the only people who can fly Russian planes properly are Russians.