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Posted: 9/1/2004 4:59:09 PM EST
[Last Edit: 9/1/2004 5:05:17 PM EST by crashburnrepeat]
I heard a rumor today and I thought I'd run it past the arfcom hive brain; it makes sense to me, and while I don't give a rats ass why we went to Iraq, beyond simply it was a good thing to do for the ten or so bastiches in that country that actuall like us, I thought it was interesting;


The rumor is that oil traded on the world market is traded in USD's. So to buy oil, you have to have dollars to do so. Soddomize Hussein was about to break with that and start selling oil via the Euro, therefor causing a drop in demand for the USD, a subsequent rise in the value of the Euro and general depression for our economy, possibly leading to a major-to-catastrophic depression.

The reason Franch and Germany and so many other European countries were against the war was the increase in their economic clout that would be brought about by the increase in value of the Euro.


OK, there it is. It makes some sense to me but I'm not an economist or anything. So tell if if this is feasible or puuuure-D- tinfoil.

CBR.

[Edited to add] This rumor was relayed to me by a buddy who's a jr staffer in the Senate. From what I've heard the jr staffers are basically receptionists/etc so I don't know if that lends creedence but he was pretty sure about it.
Link Posted: 9/1/2004 5:00:28 PM EST
Link Posted: 9/1/2004 5:02:36 PM EST
Link Posted: 9/1/2004 5:02:37 PM EST
Wow never thought about it that way

Justin
Link Posted: 9/1/2004 5:08:10 PM EST
Gee, that really fails to explain why other key members of the EU like England, Spain, Poland and Italy did participate in the war!

That's not tinfoil, that's just stupid!
Link Posted: 9/1/2004 5:09:17 PM EST
I believe this to be true. But it was not the only reason we went in. Among other things Iran is getting close to unveiling their first nuke, cant be more than three years out.

The End is Near
Link Posted: 9/1/2004 5:14:48 PM EST
FOOL!

Everyone knows that Iraq has the best chocolate frosted donuts in the world.


Link Posted: 9/1/2004 5:22:06 PM EST
[Last Edit: 9/1/2004 5:22:39 PM EST by crashburnrepeat]

Originally Posted By thebrain:
I believe this to be true. But it was not the only reason we went in. Among other things Iran is getting close to unveiling their first nuke, cant be more than three years out.

The End is Near




we talked about Iran too, I think I was misleading in my post when I said "REAL reason". Don't confuse that with "ONLY reason". He didn't say he'd heard anything about Iran stuff but his and my feelings are that Iraq will be a forward operating base to hammer the shit out of Iran if they get any closer to nukes. Iran's a hell of a lot scarier to me than Iraq was for some reason.


Link Posted: 9/1/2004 5:23:34 PM EST
It wasn't oil. It was dirt. They have the most dirt in the world. We need dirt. They have it. Simple.
Link Posted: 9/1/2004 5:28:51 PM EST

Originally Posted By rn45:
It wasn't oil. It was dirtbags. They have the most dirtbags in the world. We need dirt. They have it. Simple.



Fixed it for you.
Link Posted: 9/1/2004 5:30:00 PM EST
I just paid 1.83 a gallon today.
Link Posted: 9/1/2004 5:31:48 PM EST
[Last Edit: 9/1/2004 5:33:27 PM EST by Stryfe]
How in the hell does that make sense?
There are currency exchanges to deal with the difference between the euro and the dollar. And the euro is already stronger than the dollar.
For cryin' out loud, it's not like a gold standard. Heck, we haven't even been on the gold standard for a long time.
The reputation of the dollar isn't based on oil, it's based on the stability of our country. We aren't likely to break out into civil war any time soon. We aren't going to wake up as a third world country tomorrow. The dollar is accepted most places in the world because of who we are, not how someone trades in oil.
Link Posted: 9/1/2004 5:35:23 PM EST

Originally Posted By Stryfe:
How in the hell does that make sense?
There are currency exchanges to deal with the difference between the euro and the dollar. And the euro is already stronger than the dollar.
For cryin' out loud, it's not like a gold standard. Heck, we haven't even been on the gold standard for a long time.
The reputation of the dollar isn't based on oil, it's based on the stability of our country. We aren't likely to break out into civil war any time soon. We aren't going to wake up as a third world country tomorrow. The dollar is accepted most places in the world because of who we are, not how someone trades in oil.



I'm going to have to sort of agree with that.
Link Posted: 9/1/2004 5:36:01 PM EST
Yes but the dollar is like any other commodity, it's value rises and falls based on demand. If you suddenly have billions of dollars of oil that no longer need dollars to be bought, demand falls for the dollar and the it's value drops. Possibly precipitously......
Link Posted: 9/1/2004 5:37:26 PM EST

Originally Posted By rn45:
It wasn't oil. It was dirt. They have the most dirt in the world. We need dirt. They have it. Simple.



...and rocks. Don't forget the rocks.
Link Posted: 9/1/2004 5:37:41 PM EST
ibtcia!
Link Posted: 9/1/2004 5:51:30 PM EST
[Last Edit: 9/1/2004 5:52:01 PM EST by ar50troll]

Link Posted: 9/1/2004 5:53:28 PM EST

Originally Posted By crashburnrepeat:
Yes but the dollar is like any other commodity, it's value rises and falls based on demand. If you suddenly have billions of dollars of oil that no longer need dollars to be bought, demand falls for the dollar and the it's value drops. Possibly precipitously......


You don't walk in with a suitcase full of benjamin franklins to buy oil.
Even so, what percentage of oil production comes from Iraq? Is it so great as to tip the scales?
Didn't we control the flow of oil anyway? We had a lot of influence on how Iraqi oil was sold and what was done with the profits, didn't we?
Link Posted: 9/1/2004 6:04:41 PM EST

WOW!

That theory is stupendously idiotic!

We really need to incorporate economics classes into our public high school curriculums. This theory is too silly.

Iraqi oil production was (is) too small to influence the other oil producing countries to switch currencies. One also has to consider currency arbitrage (billions of $ every hour of the day so why bother switchng?), and the fact that other precious commodities are priced in dollars (re: gold).

Perhaps OPEC as a group could try and switch to pricing oil in euros, but Opec accounts for 50% of world oil production, so it isn't entirely clear that the effort would be worthwhile.

One thing the theory fails to understand is that because the dollar has fallen against the euro, oil is now significantly cheaper for Europeans to buy. I fail to see how it would benefit the French to pay more for oil.


Link Posted: 9/3/2004 10:12:13 AM EST
Doesn't matter what currency is used to buy oil The Arabs could demand we use wampum.

GunLvr
Link Posted: 9/3/2004 10:14:25 AM EST

Originally Posted By GunLvrPHD:
Doesn't matter what currency is used to buy oil The Arabs could demand we use wampum.

GunLvr




Bingo
Link Posted: 9/3/2004 10:20:27 AM EST
[Last Edit: 9/3/2004 10:21:52 AM EST by 82ndAbn]
Link Posted: 9/3/2004 10:41:26 AM EST
Link Posted: 9/3/2004 10:45:53 AM EST
Problem is what about the oil embargo? Iraq could only sell oil with UN permission, and they were only selling a small part of their capacity, so Saddam had a minimal effect on the dollar or oil trading practices.
Link Posted: 9/3/2004 11:09:39 AM EST
We have no camels and are running low on donkeys.
Link Posted: 9/3/2004 11:14:30 AM EST
I think it's a possibility, but not the reason.

Russia and France already had major contracts (in the billions of dollars) with Saddam for after the oil blockade ended. Also, in the Oil for Food program, European banks (in Germany and France) were skimming off the top like crazy (with Kofi Annan's son in the middle of the money grabbing), and it was a major cash cow. In summary, the Europeans wanted Saddam in power, and they were going to benefit as long as he stayed there.

That is why the Europeans wanted us to stay out. The whole dollar/euro thing is just another possible excuse for the French, Germans and Russians to oppose the removal of Saddam.
Link Posted: 9/3/2004 11:20:10 AM EST
Link Posted: 9/3/2004 11:25:08 AM EST
It is true that Iraq was going to convert to Euros. Venezuela already has, I think.

Whether it was the reason for the war or not is impossible to say. The neocons have some kind of overall strategy and I think it has more to do with Israel's influence in US foreign policy myself. They might not have hit us on 9/11 if our nation had only taken a fair approach to Middle East affairs.
Link Posted: 9/3/2004 11:27:56 AM EST

Originally Posted By thelibertarian:
It is true that Iraq was going to convert to Euros. Venezuela already has, I think.

Whether it was the reason for the war or not is impossible to say. The neocons have some kind of overall strategy and I think it has more to do with Israel's influence in US foreign policy myself. They might not have hit us on 9/11 if our nation had only taken a fair approach to Middle East affairs.



Link Posted: 9/3/2004 11:30:31 AM EST
Link Posted: 9/3/2004 12:03:03 PM EST

Originally Posted By Sweep:
The left is saying, "We went there for oil and where's the WMD's!"

I'm saying, "We went there for the WMD's and where's the oil!?" Prices at the pump at showing what I would like.



heeeeeeey....yea!!
Link Posted: 9/3/2004 12:25:50 PM EST
[Last Edit: 9/3/2004 1:02:19 PM EST by Cold_Warrior]
The reason went to war in Iraq? Look at a map. And try to think beyond 1-2 year in the future.

CW
Link Posted: 9/3/2004 12:49:22 PM EST

Originally Posted By thelibertarian:
It is true that Iraq was going to convert to Euros. Venezuela already has, I think.

Whether it was the reason for the war or not is impossible to say. The neocons have some kind of overall strategy and I think it has more to do with Israel's influence in US foreign policy myself. They might not have hit us on 9/11 if our nation had only taken a fair approach to Middle East affairs.




I told you all this guy was really Imbroglio!
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